All NBA and Zion's Next Contract

[MichaelMcNamara]

Zion not making All NBA this year kind of matters, but might not. Let me explain.

Next summer, we go to offer him an extension. If he made ALL NBA this year and next, it would GUARANTEE to start off at 30% in 2023-24 - a MASSIVE advantage for the Pels because no team could start him off higher than 25% of the cap. But, because he didnt make All NBA this year, we cant hand him a deal next offseason and guarantee he will start at 30% in 2023-24. It will actually all come down to that 2022-23 season. If he makes All NBA that year, he would get the 30%, if not he would get 25%. Really doesnt even matter what he does next year. Because you either gotta make it the 4th year OR 2 out of three years (year 2, 3, and 4) to get the 30%. Again, long story short, now all that matters is the 2022-23 season because he didnt make it this year. Now, lets look at how the 3 options look for Zion when it comes to signing next summer.


Signs QO and then signs 4 Year Deal with Someone Else:

23-24:17.6
24-25: 31.2
25-26: 32.6
26-27: 34.07
27-28: 35.60

Total: 151.07 million

Signs New Extension, Starting at 25% because he didnt make All NBA in 2022/23

23-24:: 29.8
24-25: 32.04
25-26: 34.44
26-27: 37.02
27-28: 39.8

Total: 173.1 million

Signs New Extension, Starting at 30%, Because he made All NBA in 2022-23

23-24: 35.88
24-25: 38.57
25-26: 41.46
26-27: 44.57
27-28: 47.92

Total: 208.4 million

So, as you see, it is only a small advantage if all we can offer him is the 25%. 22 million over 5 years, which he easily could make up in other markets. BUT if we can give him the 30%, that is nearly a 60 million dollar difference over the 5 years. Cant turn that down, but the issue is that - because of today - we cant GUARANTEE him that he will get the 30% next offseason, where we could have if he made All NBA this season and next.

Willing to take any questions, but I wanted to put this here because I guarantee it comes up 500x over the next year or so and I want people to have the right information.

[AusPel]

Tatum couldn't even make a team. Just ridiculous

[AUSSIE_PELICAN]

Zion not making All NBA this year kind of matters, but might not. Let me explain.

Next summer, we go to offer him an extension. If he made ALL NBA this year and next, it would GUARANTEE to start off at 30% in 2023-24 - a MASSIVE advantage for the Pels because no team could start him off higher than 25% of the cap. But, because he didnt make All NBA this year, we cant hand him a deal next offseason and guarantee he will start at 30% in 2023-24. It will actually all come down to that 2022-23 season. If he makes All NBA that year, he would get the 30%, if not he would get 25%. Really doesnt even matter what he does next year. Because you either gotta make it the 4th year OR 2 out of three years (year 2, 3, and 4) to get the 30%. Again, long story short, now all that matters is the 2022-23 season because he didnt make it this year. Now, lets look at how the 3 options look for Zion when it comes to signing next summer.


Signs QO and then signs 4 Year Deal with Someone Else:

23-24:17.6
24-25: 31.2
25-26: 32.6
26-27: 34.07
27-28: 35.60

Total: 151.07 million

Signs New Extension, Starting at 25% because he didnt make All NBA in 2022/23

23-24:: 29.8
24-25: 32.04
25-26: 34.44
26-27: 37.02
27-28: 39.8

Total: 173.1 million

Signs New Extension, Starting at 30%, Because he made All NBA in 2022-23

23-24: 35.88
24-25: 38.57
25-26: 41.46
26-27: 44.57
27-28: 47.92

Total: 208.4 million

So, as you see, it is only a small advantage if all we can offer him is the 25%. 22 million over 5 years, which he easily could make up in other markets. BUT if we can give him the 30%, that is nearly a 60 million dollar difference over the 5 years. Cant turn that down, but the issue is that - because of today - we cant GUARANTEE him that he will get the 30% next offseason, where we could have if he made All NBA this season and next.

Willing to take any questions, but I wanted to put this here because I guarantee it comes up 500x over the next year or so and I want people to have the right information.

Well we could sign it and still ask out a year or 2 later.

[MichaelMcNamara]

Well we could sign it and still ask out a year or 2 later.

Right.....the point is that if he was only gonna get the 25% extension, it wouldnt even make sense to do that. Would make more sense just to sign the QO and go pick his team as an UFA. The difference in money is negligible. But the 30% contract is massive - enough where you would have to sign it. But because of today, we cant guarantee him that next summer

[AusPel]

So there's no way he signs an early extension then?

[Silverfoxx]

Zion not making All NBA this year kind of matters, but might not. Let me explain.

Next summer, we go to offer him an extension. If he made ALL NBA this year and next, it would GUARANTEE to start off at 30% in 2023-24 - a MASSIVE advantage for the Pels because no team could start him off higher than 25% of the cap. But, because he didnt make All NBA this year, we cant hand him a deal next offseason and guarantee he will start at 30% in 2023-24. It will actually all come down to that 2022-23 season. If he makes All NBA that year, he would get the 30%, if not he would get 25%. Really doesnt even matter what he does next year. Because you either gotta make it the 4th year OR 2 out of three years (year 2, 3, and 4) to get the 30%. Again, long story short, now all that matters is the 2022-23 season because he didnt make it this year. Now, lets look at how the 3 options look for Zion when it comes to signing next summer.


Signs QO and then signs 4 Year Deal with Someone Else:

23-24:17.6
24-25: 31.2
25-26: 32.6
26-27: 34.07
27-28: 35.60

Total: 151.07 million

Signs New Extension, Starting at 25% because he didnt make All NBA in 2022/23

23-24:: 29.8
24-25: 32.04
25-26: 34.44
26-27: 37.02
27-28: 39.8

Total: 173.1 million

Signs New Extension, Starting at 30%, Because he made All NBA in 2022-23

23-24: 35.88
24-25: 38.57
25-26: 41.46
26-27: 44.57
27-28: 47.92

Total: 208.4 million

So, as you see, it is only a small advantage if all we can offer him is the 25%. 22 million over 5 years, which he easily could make up in other markets. BUT if we can give him the 30%, that is nearly a 60 million dollar difference over the 5 years. Cant turn that down, but the issue is that - because of today - we cant GUARANTEE him that he will get the 30% next offseason, where we could have if he made All NBA this season and next.

Willing to take any questions, but I wanted to put this here because I guarantee it comes up 500x over the next year or so and I want people to have the right information.

Thanks for all the info. The stars are aligning. Either way I'll be watching.

[Eman5805]

All that means is we need to put a team around him. Get him into the postseason for real and not get swept.

[MichaelMcNamara]

So there's no way he signs an early extension then?

Never said that.

But I would say that if he makes All NBA this year and next, there is a 99.99999 percent chance he signs the extension next summer. Now? I'd say between 80-90. Still far more likely than not. But today could have been step 1 in making it a definite thing. But in typical Pelicans passion, we just missed out by a hair

[MichaelMcNamara]

All that means is we need to put a team around him. Get him into the postseason for real and not get swept.

Right. And if we did that AND he made All NBA this year and next, it would have been even better

[AUSSIE_PELICAN]

I'll just follow the player and not the team like all the Lebron band-wagoners.
I'll be happier for it.

Just need to dumb myself down a little.

[MichaelMcNamara]

When you think about it, all fandom is illogical. We make fun of this new gen who likes a player, but it kinda makes more sense than liking a particular team. The team swaps out players, execs, coaches, even owners and cities some times. It truly is the Ship of Theseus. I mean, nothing remains from this organization from when I became a fan in 1993. New city, team name, colors, owner, players - literally everything. So what am I really a fan of? At least with a player, there is a constant. It kind of makes more sense, we just grew up where the norm was to support the team, so we think they are the weirdos, but objectively I kind of think we are.

[AUSSIE_PELICAN]

When you think about it, all fandom is illogical. We make fun of this new gen who likes a player, but it kinda makes more sense than liking a particular team. The team swaps out players, execs, coaches, even owners and cities some times. It truly is the Ship of Theseus. I mean, nothing remains from this organization from when I became a fan in 1993. New city, team name, colors, owner, players - literally everything. So what am I really a fan of? At least with a player, there is a constant. It kind of makes more sense, we just grew up where the norm was to support the team, so we think they are the weirdos, but objectively I kind of think we are.

Like I was saying

[PELICANSFAN]

When you think about it, all fandom is illogical. We make fun of this new gen who likes a player, but it kinda makes more sense than liking a particular team. The team swaps out players, execs, coaches, even owners and cities some times. It truly is the Ship of Theseus. I mean, nothing remains from this organization from when I became a fan in 1993. New city, team name, colors, owner, players - literally everything. So what am I really a fan of? At least with a player, there is a constant. It kind of makes more sense, we just grew up where the norm was to support the team, so we think they are the weirdos, but objectively I kind of think we are.

Easier for those that are not from the area. Being in the NOLA area, it is much easier to follow the team rather than specific players.

[tacosman]

Zion not making All NBA this year kind of matters

this is silly....by the time the season ended *nobody* thought Zion was going to make it. People were thinking it would come down to
Jimmy Butler vs Tatum for the last forward spot. Zion wasn't even going to be the 'next guy' in line....

[MichaelMcNamara]

Bumped for when you guys start debating if Zion will stay or not

[pelafanatic]

SHAI ��

The Thunder and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander have agreed to a five-year, $172M maximum rookie contract extension, sources confirmed to @sam_amick.

The contract is worth up to $207 million if SGA is All-NBA.https://t.co/dZdkPWP8xX

— The Athletic (@TheAthletic) August 3, 2021

New Orleans also has the agility to do this, which is convert the extension from 25% to the 30% if he makes an all NBA team

[MichaelMcNamara]

SHAI ��

The Thunder and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander have agreed to a five-year, $172M maximum rookie contract extension, sources confirmed to @sam_amick.

The contract is worth up to $207 million if SGA is All-NBA.https://t.co/dZdkPWP8xX

— The Athletic (@TheAthletic) August 3, 2021

New Orleans also has the agility to do this, which is convert the extension from 25% to the 30% if he makes an all NBA team

I am very aware of that, but it still wouldnt be guaranteed. All he will be GUARANTEED that he is signing next summer is the 173 - which isnt significantly more than the other path. Sure, it will be 208 if he makes All NBA, but that is out of his control. So, why not just wait the year and if you make All NBA, sign the 208?

My overall point is there is almost no reason for him to sign the contract next summer. And I know that when he doesnt, folks will panic

[pelafanatic]

I am very aware of that, but it still wouldnt be guaranteed. All he will be GUARANTEED that he is signing next summer is the 173 - which isnt significantly more than the other path. Sure, it will be 208 if he makes All NBA, but that is out of his control. So, why not just wait the year and if you make All NBA, sign the 208?

My overall point is there is almost no reason for him to sign the contract next summer. And I know that when he doesnt, folks will panic

I was just posting it for everyone because it hadn't been mentioned. I'm sure you were aware

[MichaelMcNamara]

I was just posting it for everyone because it hadn't been mentioned. I'm sure you were aware

He just makes so much from endorsements that the difference between the 25% contract we can give him and signing the QO and getting a new deal from another deal is such a small difference. The only way we have a REAL advantage is if we could give him the 30% contract and the earliest we could guarantee that to him is summer of 2023. He could also say no thanks and sign the QO that summer and I am sure we could get good value in a trade, but not a haul

[SoCal4Pels]

Bumped for when you guys start debating if Zion will stay or not

Am I the only one hoping we make it further into the playoffs than NY this year to at least somewhat dull the allure of big city lights and reuniting with his Duke buddy?

[socbe7]

I am very aware of that, but it still wouldnt be guaranteed. All he will be GUARANTEED that he is signing next summer is the 173 - which isnt significantly more than the other path. Sure, it will be 208 if he makes All NBA, but that is out of his control. So, why not just wait the year and if you make All NBA, sign the 208?

My overall point is there is almost no reason for him to sign the contract next summer. And I know that when he doesnt, folks will panic

Since when is $173 million considered "all" as if it's chump change? There are $173 million reasons to sign that contract. What happens if the unthinkable happens? We've seen superstars still land max contracts even with teams knowing they'll be out the entire following year (KD, likely Kawhi). Both of those guys are champions. But what if Zion suffers a career altering injury? An achilles for Zion would be different than one for KD. If he can bump it to the $208 with an All-NBA, why wouldn't he just sign the $173? It's all risk, no reward.

[MichaelMcNamara]

Since when is $173 million considered "all" as if it's chump change? There are $173 million reasons to sign that contract. What happens if the unthinkable happens? We've seen superstars still land max contracts even with teams knowing they'll be out the entire following year (KD, likely Kawhi). Both of those guys are champions. But what if Zion suffers a career altering injury? An achilles for Zion would be different than one for KD. If he can bump it to the $208 with an All-NBA, why wouldn't he just sign the $173? It's all risk, no reward.

173 mil vs nothing is a big difference. 173 vs 151 is not a big deal - especially to a guy who could make 50 mil a year in endorsements if all goes well.

Look, you can believe whatever you want. But when he doesnt sign it next summer and everyone panics, this post will be here to calm the panic because people will see why he shouldnt sign it regardless

[DarkHornet]

173 mil vs nothing is a big difference. 173 vs 151 is not a big deal - especially to a guy who could make 50 mil a year in endorsements if all goes well.

Look, you can believe whatever you want. But when he doesnt sign it next summer and everyone panics, this post will be here to calm the panic because people will see why he shouldnt sign it regardless

But does it calm the panic? If you believe that the odds of him signing the extension next summer are at something like 0-10%, what do you believe the odds of him signing the extension in 2023 as we stand today?

[MichaelMcNamara]

But does it calm the panic? If you believe that the odds of him signing the extension next summer are at something like 0-10%, what do you believe the odds of him signing the extension in 2023 as we stand today?

I would say 80-ish percent. And thats why I want to put this here. Because the national narrative if he doesnt sign the extension next summer will be that he is gone. People will say nobody has ever turned it down before, blah blah blah

But like I said in this thread - even if he liked it here, as his agent, I would tell him not to sign it. To wait and see if he makes All NBA the following year. But that wont be what the national guys say - they wont even understand the different options and amounts like I laid out here. But Pels fans will, hopefully

[socbe7]

This doesn't make any sense. You're contradicting yourself. You're saying if he doesn't sign it it's because the $20 million difference isn't worth locking himself in vs. allowing him to leave via free agency. If he doesn't sign, that means the extra $20 million guaranteed isn't enough for him to decide to stay right away.

He can get the bigger contract the following year whether he signs early or not. So you're basically saying that if he doesn't sign, it means he wants to keep his options open, but don't panic because that's not what it means.