What are your early expectations for the Pels next year?

[Silverfoxx]

I think the idea that if we return this 12th seed team we're probably a 7th seed is kind of nuts, honestly.

It's hard to judge exactly what the team will do when there's so much about the team that's likely to change. One of Lonzo or Bledsoe will probably be gone, we may draft a new rookie or we may trade that pick to acquire a different player, does Hart return to the team, etc. Lots of potential changes.

As a result it's hard to say what I think will happen, but what I think should happen is a legitimate playoff push. It's Zion's third year with us, we don't need to be a finals contender or anything yet but we do need to be making strides towards actually winning, and for me that means we need to be a top 8 team next year. That is to say, a 'real' playoff team, not a play in team.

You and me both brother

[PELICANSFAN]

If he is on the 2nd unit, then either Kira or NAW (or both) are on the first and I am not a huge fan of either unless the other guard is a STUD. Like, if we get Beal, and gave up NAW or Kira, then the other could start and TJ with Didi off the bench is fine

Do you think TJ is starter material on this squad? Or would it have the same caveat (that the other guard is a STUD)?

[MichaelMcNamara]

Do you think TJ is starter material on this squad? Or would it have the same caveat (that the other guard is a STUD)?

You gotta build the team for the postseason, not the regular season. A guy like TJ is gonna try harder than everyone in the regular season and produce solid results because of it. In the postseason, everyone tries hard. Talent and measurables matter at that point

[Stalwart385]

With just a tame offseason. I expect a playoff team. That is creeping back to average at guard and the rest of youth developing. I see Lonzo as a volatile average. So sign him or equivalent (don't let his contract handicap you). Find better play than Bledsoe gave you this year. I'm having doubts they move him unfortunately. Hopefully he at least gets back to his career norm or they figure out a good move. If he stays and is looking the same you have to move on to NAW/Hart quick. Don't try to play it out again like this year. Just cut your loss and try to get decent play there.

If they can make guard a plus position, or even a strength, with some strong offseason moves. I could see a Suns type of rise. It is by far the position with the most to gain. This team needs a push over the hump. Going from poor to good at guard should result in a lot more wins. Especially if that guard is a smart vet that can lead a team to wins.

If we could manage to have Hart, JJ (or equivalent) and NAW off the bench I'd be happy with our bench. I'm happy with our centers. We have good players and some really good upside with Hayes. You can argue Adams was overpaid this year but I doubt he goes anywhere and I feel better about the group having him.

We'll see how the draft falls out but I don't expect to see much return from the draft for a couple years. Which means NAW and Hayes need to be real positives for us next year. I like Kira but he still probably needs another year to be a positive for us. Maybe an offseason helps if we're lucky.

[MichaelMcNamara]

Of the 8 likely to make the playoffs this year, whose spot do we take with a "tame" offseason? Remember, we had amazing injury luck for the first 5/6ths of the year and still were in 11th. Plus, I dont think Memphis, SA, Sacramento will be any worse - they will make upgrades. SA has a ton of cap room, Memphis has flexibility and picks to upgrade, and Sacramento was neck and neck with us all year despite worse injury luck. Not to mention, any of those teams might jump up in the lotto too.

We could get 10-15% better and still miss the top 8 pretty easily, as others get better and/or we have normal injury luck or bad injury luck instead of good next year.

[6warddude]

Of the 8 likely to make the playoffs this year, whose spot do we take with a "tame" offseason? Remember, we had amazing injury luck for the first 5/6ths of the year and still were in 11th. Plus, I dont think Memphis, SA, Sacramento will be any worse - they will make upgrades. SA has a ton of cap room, Memphis has flexibility and picks to upgrade, and Sacramento was neck and neck with us all year despite worse injury luck. Not to mention, any of those teams might jump up in the lotto too.

We could get 10-15% better and still miss the top 8 pretty easily, as others get better and/or we have normal injury luck or bad injury luck instead of good next year.

players cost us majority of the games we blew leads in...coaching cost us some....i expect we learn from this season mistakes in order to win more next season.......guard play is a big factor..so if we have decent guard play next season then i see us taking portland spot in the playoffs next season....

and i hate betting against portland because they just find ways to win but i think next season they fall out some how.....

[Stalwart385]

Based purely on current teams any team from 6 down isn't a major hurrdle imo. Other than a healthy Lakers. Things can change drastically in a year though. For every team that takes a jump another will fall from grace.

The best estimate I can give you is to take our many close games. Throw them in a blender. Spit out a halfway acceptable win% in those kinds of games. Whichever other teams didn't make the cut are the ones we beat out.

Note that part of my tame offseason also means expecting better play from Bledsoe's spot. Which was really bad and doesn't need an earth shattering move to improve (though I'd prefer that). It probably could even be found on the team. That's worth a few wins alone surely.

The growth of Zion, Hayes and NAW together I expect to be more tangible than most teams would expect from theirs. It was clear to see their growth through this year for me. Also a full offseason under a new coach for young guys to actually learn. Again unique to this team compared to most.

We had a pretty rough stretch of injuries this year despite a great start before the break. I don't see that as a legit reason for pessimism. The difference between this year and average is minor. Heck the guy that drove the healthy stat more than anyone was Bledsoe and he was probably the biggest negative to the team.

[MichaelMcNamara]

As fans of the team, of course we are going to say "We lost close games this year, if we just improve slightly and win those same games, we improve dramatically and make the playoffs."

But again, the opposition made mistakes in those games too that maybe they clean up. Or have a better squad, so the game isnt close any way. Maybe Indy has a full squad, so they arent down 6 and needing a miracle comeback for us to blow.

Fans will point at the negatives and say clean those up and we win. But they dont look at the positives and say they could be negatives next year. Again, we had EXTRAORDINARY injury luck this year up until the end. If that is just average, its a much worse season. And thats not pessimism. Thats objective realism. Yes, things that went poorly last year could go well next year. But things that went well can also go poorly. You cant assume the former and dismiss the latter as pessimism.

[Stalwart385]

I'd be curious to see a good break down of those numbers.

We missed Lonzo and Adams for significant stretches. Bi and Zion both missed time during a key part of the season. I'm not counting after being eliminated.

Also consider we were never a team in a position to rest our starters for a day because they were nicked up. We had no cushion to work with at any point.

I don't think overall we were as fortunate as it's being made to be. Before the all-star break was pretty exceptional, after it leveled off.

As far as us improving. It's not blind optimism. This team is in a unique position of youth and a new coach. The more years a player has been in the league the less likely I expect to see growth. I think that is a pretty accepted thought process not just an optimism thing.

Also, if you just want to win more close games that's one thing. Improving from an abnormally bad record in close games is another. Some teams are uniquely bad/good at close games year in and out but typically those kinds of things even out. I do think we have a team problem (mostly driven by youth) in close games, but I also think there is some statistical regression in there too.

[MichaelMcNamara]

They are easy to find. We were #1 in fewest games missed amongst starters and rotation players up until these.last 7 games

[MichaelMcNamara]

This is more recent, as Milwaukee has passed us in this graph. But you can see how extreme our injury luck was, while Memphis had terrible luck and still finished better. Sacto had worse luck and finished with the same record. What if those two teams have good luck next year and we have average or bad? Which is not a pessimistic take....just a very live possibility that an objective person would consider when predicted if they had no dog in the fight

https://twitter.com/ManGamesLostNBA/...813057/photo/1

[Stalwart385]

Thank you for the link.

I don't see that as extreme at all. Just counting numbers we were one of the better teams but not an outlier. Then you have to consider who you lost. The WS metric gives a nice perspective to that. For example, GSW way on the other end had less of a WS loss than us. Then you have a team like the Nets. They had a ton of key injuries but were good enough to not rush guys back.

It wasn't a bad injury season, it even started out great but I don't see it as any kind of statistical anomaly worthy of win regression.

[MichaelMcNamara]

There are cases to be made for slight to vast improvement in results, for sure. Especially when you factor in how aggressive Griff will be this offseason. But to be truly objective, you have to do that for the other WC teams too. Isnt there a clear path to the Lakers being much better? The Mavs? Phoenix getting better with internal growth and continuity? Cant Memphis be aggressive with the flexibility, young players, and picks they have? What is SA properly uses their cap room to go with a nice young perimeter core? What if Sacto gets the #1 pick and/or Haliburton takes a leap?

If you look at it as a Pels fan, it is very easy to make a case - especially if that is the conclusion you want. But I dont think any objective person looking at all 15 teams says, "Pels should definitely be a playoff team next year barring horrible luck"

[Stalwart385]

I'm a Pelicans fan much more than an NBA fan, so I'm not going to break down the other team's rosters. I just feel like the position the Pelicans are in is more unique for natural growth than other teams because typically teams don't have as good of talent at such a young age. So they are ripe for improvement and already keeping up with the rest of the league. It's not me being an eternal optimist. If you ask me for a team to look out for that is most in line for natural improvement, a young team that lost a lot of close games is a pretty good bet imo. I'd do the same thing with pretty much any sport.

Not that it will be enough to be major players but I expect at least playoffs. They'll need to do more to compete with the top 5 or 6 teams on a consistent basis.

[MichaelMcNamara]

It COULD happen, I am not disputing that. But there is actually a lot of young talent spread around the WC on teams that are already better. Like Phoenix, Dallas with Luka, Memphis, etc. Not to mention several other teams have a better cap situation and/or a more desirable place for guys to want to go. I think at least 13 teams in the West will try to improve this offseason, and most of those teams are already better. I think the Pels will have to significantly improve their back court and get internal growth and avoid bad injury luck to be a lock playoff team. While others seem to think that it should just happen mostly with internal growth and a few roster tweaks. I am not there

[tdcreator]

I think a lot of teams will have money and we aren’t a destination city. I don’t think we get the big fish so I think we could solidify this team with a few good additions and having an addiction by subtraction in Bledsoe. Saying that I think we have another year of young players and end up between 7-9. If they can show some maturity as a team I think the following year we can get to 4-5 range and start really competing.

I hoping we don’t follow Boston’s lead and not trade picks cause we waiting on Beal or Lavine. This draft has a few good guys up high. Go trade a bunch of picks and get a couple of them. I’ve been tooting Jalen Green and Kuminga. Those 2 along with BI, Zion, Hayes, NAW, and Kira would be a great foundation.

[Taker597]

Looking at this roster and pieces it needs to compete against its current slate of competition in a down year talent on the market. I don't understand this wishful thinking that we can easily flip this team into a top 8 team overnight with just a couple of moves.

We been having this mentality for a few years, but I truly don't see it this year. We can all say that Griffin got to get this team competing year 3 of Zion, but I don't see these rabbit out of hat moves coming easy.

[ramsters60]

if Griff is as serious about pursuing shooting as he sounded during the in-game interview tonight, he might want to see what needs to be done to accommodate a Duncan Robinson....

[PELICANSFAN]

if Griff is as serious about pursuing shooting as he sounded during the in-game interview tonight, he might want to see what needs to be done to accommodate a Duncan Robinson....

Yeah, he was very adamant about getting shooting.

[Speakthetruth]

Hmmmm

I think a realistic. Goal is the play in as of now

[UNO Gracias]

Griff’s press conference today was very on brand. Now let’s see if he goes off brand and does something to make us competitive next offseason.

[13 - 3]

Griff?s press conference today was very on brand. Now let?s see if he goes off brand and does something to make us competitive next offseason.

All indications point to us spending all our money on Lonzo this off-season.

He also said only SVG could coach Zion or something like that.

[Erose]

If Zion this off-season can just become an average defender and Ingram a below average defender.

Get or develop viable backups at the 3 and 4 positions.

Just improve guard play to league average.

Bring in a couple roleplayers that can actually shoot the ball.

And oh yeah get better at the free throw line overall.

Do these things and I believe this team could make the 4 to 5 playoff spot. The fact that when this team outside our big two was able to score and played just average d, this team was pretty tough to beat.


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[fullcourtpress]

I concur; I love watching our Point-forwards run the show, but at the end of games their turn-overs were killing us. they needed to back it-out when it wasn't there like a true pg could.

i wonder if davion mitchell, being older, could help in that regartd

[Freyfamilyreuni]

All indications point to us spending all our money on Lonzo this off-season.

So I guess he wasn’t serious about getting shooting then.