You guys, I think we need to pay Lonzo

[PELICANSFAN]

Lonzo is worth $15-$16 million max. He is an extremely inconsistent player and always will be because of his attitude and mentality.

That is a stretch of an assumption. We have no idea of his attitude or mentality.

[PELICANSFAN]

The question is how much are you willing to gamble that he will turn that corner.

If you pay him $20 or $25m and he doesn't turn that corner, you've basically hamstrung the entire team and your ability to team-build throughout the entirety of Ingram's contract and Zion's rookie deal. Which is a potentially franchise wrecking mistake.

I agree that $20m-$25m is too big of a gamble. At $14m-$16m, I could live with it (especially if only a 3 year deal or 4th year either a team option or partial guarantee).

[Snarly]

20 mil isn't even a lot anymore. In 3 years, your above average role players will be getting that regularly.

[pelafanatic]

I agree that $20m-$25m is too big of a gamble. At $14m-$16m, I could live with it (especially if only a 3 year deal or 4th year either a team option or partial guarantee).

Rich Paul is not giving you a team option

[Pelicanidae]

20 mil isn't even a lot anymore. In 3 years, your above average role players will be getting that regularly.

It's about 1/5 of the cap right now, and unless you see multiple historic cap increases on the horizon, it will still be a significant chunk of the cap in 3 years. You don't give multi-year $20-25m contracts away to projects.

[Snarly]

It's about 1/5 of the cap right now, and unless you see multiple historic cap increases on the horizon, it will still be a significant chunk of the cap in 3 years. You don't give multi-year $20-25m contracts away to projects.

He's not a project. His improvements have been steady enough. If he continues to play well the rest of the year, I don't see a reason not to sign him if his asking price doesn't exceed 20mil per. He's more likely to play up to his contract based on his steady improvements during his tenure here. I don't see his progression slowing down anytime soon. If he finishes the year strong, I'm all for it.

[pelafanatic]

He's not a project. His improvements have been steady enough. If he continues to play well the rest of the year, I don't see a reason not to sign him if his asking price doesn't exceed 20mil per. He's more likely to play up to his contract based on his steady improvements during his tenure here. I don't see his progression slowing down anytime soon. If he finishes the year strong, I'm all for it.

It has to be a tradeable contract if you're going to do it

[Snarly]

I agree. His contract would be a nice asset without a no trade clause or a 15% trade kicker. I think he would be more valuable during his second contract which is the best time to unload him if that's the route we take.

[PELICANSFAN]

Rich Paul is not giving you a team option

I'm sure you are right. Do you think we offered him $20 million a year or more?

[Pelicanidae]

He's not a project. His improvements have been steady enough. If he continues to play well the rest of the year, I don't see a reason not to sign him if his asking price doesn't exceed 20mil per. He's more likely to play up to his contract based on his steady improvements during his tenure here. I don't see his progression slowing down anytime soon. If he finishes the year strong, I'm all for it.

He's absolutely a project. We've spent this thread largely talking about all of the improvements he would have to make to become worthy of that kind of payday and several of them are fairly large gambles: for example, the chance of him randomly improving his FT% by 10%, or him finally becoming a consistent 3pt threat over a large span of time.

It's easy to say he's had ''steady improvements'' here but as I've already explained in this thread, I don't actually think that's as true as some people are assuming it is. His time here has actually been characterised by incredible streaks of garbage play followed by periods of extremely hot play followed by massive cooling periods again.

[Snarly]

We're a quarter of a season in. You're being unreasonable. Last season he reworked his shot. Of course there's going to be consistency issues. I'll sit back and watch and let him prove himself. You've already wrote him off so your bias is pretty clear.

[pelafanatic]

I'm sure you are right. Do you think we offered him $20 million a year or more?

No I don't

[PELICANSFAN]

No I don't

Good!

[PolishFan]

The question is how much are you willing to gamble that he will turn that corner.

If you pay him $20 or $25m and he doesn't turn that corner, you've basically hamstrung the entire team and your ability to team-build throughout the entirety of Ingram's contract and Zion's rookie deal. Which is a potentially franchise wrecking mistake.

We should know by the end of the season so there won?t be really any gamble. If he continues to play like this till the rest of the season and hopefully the playoffs you pay him and be happy about it if he doesn?t then we either get him for less or lose him

[PolishFan]

Lonzo is probably not a fit long term next to Zion and BI unless he's a legit 40% 3 point shooter that attracts an extreme amount of gravity. If he's not, then the only reason to sign him to an extension is to keep the asset. If the purpose of keeping Lonzo is to keep the asset, then you have to ask your self at which price point is the asset completely depreciated or negative.

His 3pt shooting seems good enough now and it seems some of you really undervalue his defense. Ball has played some really solid D on some really good players. Also he fits with Zion and BI as he doesnt need the ball in his hands. He also seems to have good chemistry with both of them

[DaPelFromHell]

It?s hard to find talent in this league and Lonzo has the talent to be a really good ball player maybe a fringe/one year All Star. But thats my problem, I don?t want to pay a ton for a possible fringe/one year All Star. Not a sure fire All Star or a past one year All Star like BI or Jrue. Now if he was just a past all defensive team player than I could get down with that, but he’s not.

Now I could possibly look past all that if he would be willing to play more off the ball as a 3 & D wing that?s a secondary ball handler, but he has made it known that he is a point guard that only wants to play point guard. We have our future point guard in Kira Lewis Jr.

[SoCal4Pels]

Lonzo has tantalized many times with the appearance of 'turning the corner.'

I want to believe... every time he appears to turn the corner, I want to believe.

Remember not to look at a contract in a vacuum; you compare both Zo's combined strengths and weaknesses against the possibility of someone else coming to the Pelicans and doing something definitively better than Zo.

Do we 100% get someone to come to NO who is as good or better of a perimeter defender, rebounder (less important), and 3 point shooter as 'Zo for a similar price as what we would offer him? I don't have the answer to that, but passing on him is also a kind of gamble just as is paying him...

[donato]

Luckily we have a lot of games to play to see if he's turned the corner or if it's just another hot streak. I mean- I think it's pretty clear it IS a hot streak, but the question is when he starts to play a little worse, how much worse.

He does look more confident, with a higher motor, and within himself. Maybe he has turned a corner. I WANT TO BELIEVE!!!

[AusPel]

[Pelicanidae]

We should know by the end of the season so there won?t be really any gamble. If he continues to play like this till the rest of the season and hopefully the playoffs you pay him and be happy about it if he doesn?t then we either get him for less or lose him

Well there will be a gamble because if you keep him until the end of the year you've put yourself over a barrel: now you either pay him what he demands or you get nothing at all. That's why the question for me has always been whether he can prove it by the trade deadline.

[Pelicanidae]

Luckily we have a lot of games to play to see if he's turned the corner or if it's just another hot streak. I mean- I think it's pretty clear it IS a hot streak, but the question is when he starts to play a little worse, how much worse.

He does look more confident, with a higher motor, and within himself. Maybe he has turned a corner. I WANT TO BELIEVE!!!

Yeah, I've seen a few people arguing that it's not a hot streak and he'll just be this way for the rest of the year uninterrupted and it's like... you really think he's just flipped a switch and decided he's going to shoot 58% from long midrange now? Really? Better than even guys like Durant have ever done, when they're guys famous for their midrange?

People do this a lot though, they see that someone's scoring is up and maybe they look at FG%, and if the FG% isn't insane they just assume that it's going to continue. People need to get in the habit of checking how those points are being put up and asking themselves if it's reasonable to project it outwards. If all that's happen is that someone has changed their shot profile a bit so they're taking better shots more often, that's probably sustainable. If it's just a small increase in efficiency across the board, that might be sustainable. If their overall efficiency still is down but they're shooting all time great in one spot then that's maybe not going to stick around quite as well.

[PolishFan]

Lonzo has tantalized many times with the appearance of 'turning the corner.'

I want to believe... every time he appears to turn the corner, I want to believe.

Remember not to look at a contract in a vacuum; you compare both Zo's combined strengths and weaknesses against the possibility of someone else coming to the Pelicans and doing something definitively better than Zo.

Do we 100% get someone to come to NO who is as good or better of a perimeter defender, rebounder (less important), and 3 point shooter as 'Zo for a similar price as what we would offer him? I don't have the answer to that, but passing on him is also a kind of gamble just as is paying him...

Very good post. Passing on him would be a big gamble as well.

[PELICANSFAN]

Yeah, I've seen a few people arguing that it's not a hot streak and he'll just be this way for the rest of the year uninterrupted and it's like... you really think he's just flipped a switch and decided he's going to shoot 58% from long midrange now? Really? Better than even guys like Durant have ever done, when they're guys famous for their midrange?

People do this a lot though, they see that someone's scoring is up and maybe they look at FG%, and if the FG% isn't insane they just assume that it's going to continue. People need to get in the habit of checking how those points are being put up and asking themselves if it's reasonable to project it outwards. If all that's happen is that someone has changed their shot profile a bit so they're taking better shots more often, that's probably sustainable. If it's just a small increase in efficiency across the board, that might be sustainable. If their overall efficiency still is down but they're shooting all time great in one spot then that's maybe not going to stick around quite as well.

I don't think anyone thinks he is going to continue to shoot 58% from long range. Just like I don't think anyone thought he would continue to shoot 29% from long range. However, that is not the question. As you know, many players have ups and downs. The question is, do we think he can continue to do what he is showing this season and if so, what is that worth to the Pels.

[pelafanatic]

There's some Huerter talk today on the TL. How would we feel about something like this:

Hawks get Lonzo, Melli, Cavs 2021 2nd

Pels get Huerter, Snell, Hawks 2022 lottery protected first

[pelafanatic]

Huerter is an unequivocally better shooter and probably a better creator in the half court, as well as a better cutter and finisher. Zo is a better defender and a more lethal transition passer, while still a capable shooter. Hawks get a better fit next to Trae Young whil the Pels get a better fit next to Zion and BI, kick the can down the line on an extension, and pick up a small asset in a 2022 protected first.