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Thread: SVG gets it - great article by David Fisher on TBW

  1. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by new city champ View Post
    One of the reasons I've been ok (for a while) with the idea of trading Holiday is that what the Pels really need at SG is a 50/40/90 guy or as close as they can get. This player should be complimentary, an efficient shooter who does not need to dominate the ball to add value.

    Can Lonzo fill that role? Well, his 3-point shot is the closest element. As a 38%+ guy on catch and shoot this is some ground to build on. Of course, he's not nearly as good off the dribble, but not sure that's a deal breaker given the role Pels are envisioning. Lonzo, however, is not close to being 50% FG scorer. His career shooting percentage is 39% (!) and that only ticked up to around 40% last season. Terrible, especially for a "shooting" guard or wing. We know the culprit. He can't/won't score in the paint. It's a big deficiency. Worse still though is his FT%. He's actually below 50% from the stripe in his career, though he did improve nominally last season to about 57%, albeit on a small sample size.

    It's hard to see how Lonzo can become a viable shooting guard/wing with anything like his to-date FG% and FT%. He's just too far off the mark, even as a decent catch-and-shoot guy. For comparison, resident senior citizen J.J. Redick is a shooting guard who actually shoots: 45% from the field, 40% from the arc and 89% from the line on about 10-12 attempts per game. Sure, you have to hide him on defense but that's one reason they got Adams, right? Even a scraper like Josh Hart shows some promise, shooting 43% from the field, 35% from distance and 71% from the stripe. Edge those percentages up 2-3% and you've got something.

    Maybe Lonzo can make another quantum leap in his overall shooting like he did last season with stand still 3-pointers. But unless it comes quickly, it's hard to see how you can justify paying him like a core part of the roster. You'd be chasing the money, trying to justify the sunk costs and that always turns out badly.
    The only shooting guard skill Lonzo has is catch and shoot. I don't think he's created a single pull up jumper in his life.

    There is no reason why he shouldn't be at least good at such things

    Can we get Beal somehow?

  2. #27
    Quote Originally Posted by new city champ View Post
    One of the reasons I've been ok (for a while) with the idea of trading Holiday is that what the Pels really need at SG is a 50/40/90 guy or as close as they can get. This player should be complimentary, an efficient shooter who does not need to dominate the ball to add value.

    It's hard to see how Lonzo can become a viable shooting guard/wing with anything like his to-date FG% and FT%.

    Maybe Lonzo can make another quantum leap in his overall shooting like he did last season with stand still 3-pointers. But unless is comes quickly, it's hard to see how you can justify paying him like a core part of the roster. You'd be chasing the money, trying to justify the sunk costs and that always turns out badly.
    Firstly, I just want to say: yes, we'd love a 50/40/90 guy. Sadly, so would every other team in the NBA and there's only about 3 of them, two of which spent all of last year on the shelf with injury, so that's a hope that will probably never materialise sadly.

    I agree with what you say mostly: Lonzo simply cannot be a viable shooting guard right now. Wing is a little different though, because if you play him as a forward on offense, then all he really has to do is spot up. It would be nice if he could attack closeouts as well - which he can't - but if he's taking 10 shots a game and 8 of them are 3s, then it's the 3pt% that matters more than anything else. Shooting 38% on 8 a game would be functional. The FT% is still a huge issue because it means he's hard to close games with, especially when we have other, more versatile players like Zion who can score at the rim, who can drive and create for themselves, who can collapse defenses to pass, and who therefore obviously get priority over Lonzo on the floor.

    Here's how bad Lonzo is as a scorer overall. Last year was the single best shooting season of his career by a mile: he set career highs in 3pt% and FG% while increasing his 3pt volume by a large amount. The result of this was that he set a 51%TS mark: the first time in his career that he hit over 50% TS.

    League average is 57%TS. So it was the best efficiency season of his career by a landslide and he was still quite significantly under league average overall.
    Cade Cunningham/Usman Garuba/Scottie Barnes/Moses Moody/Brandon Boston Jr endorser.

    Eye test people: analytics people watch more basketball than you do.

  3. #28
    Quote Originally Posted by AusPel View Post
    The only shooting guard skill Lonzo has is catch and shoot. I don't think he's created a single pull up jumper in his life.

    There is no reason why he shouldn't be at least good at such things

    Can we get Beal somehow?
    You can't get Beal unless the Wizards are shopping Beal and so far they've rebuffed every claim, so has Beal, and he signed an extension with them. While I think you could potentially get him if you offered the Wizards literally everything, I don't think that's actually a good idea.

    As for Lonzo: 79% of his career 3s have been assisted, including a career high 82.4% last season. You are correct that he cannot really create pull-ups.

  4. #29
    Quote Originally Posted by Pelicanidae View Post
    You can't get Beal unless the Wizards are shopping Beal and so far they've rebuffed every claim, so has Beal, and he signed an extension with them. While I think you could potentially get him if you offered the Wizards literally everything, I don't think that's actually a good idea.

    As for Lonzo: 79% of his career 3s have been assisted, including a career high 82.4% last season. You are correct that he cannot really create pull-ups.
    He must have been working on something over the off period. Improved ball handling is a skill you should see direct results from repetitions

  5. #30
    For sure 50/40/90 is a high bar and don?t mean it literally, just a player approaching those metrics. A bigger, younger Redick for example, who punched in at 45/40/85 would be a great fit. Not that those guys are easy to get either, but it?s attainable. I could actually see NAW growing (in time) into that kind of profile, though I accept that I am alone in the Pelverse in seeing Nickeil as a shooting guard....

  6. #31
    NAW is a combo, shoot first type guard. He can playmake but he also loves to shoot/score

    So yeah, fairly typical 1.5 guy

  7. #32
    Quote Originally Posted by new city champ View Post
    For sure 50/40/90 is a high bar and don?t mean it literally, just a player approaching those metrics. A bigger, younger Redick for example, who punched in at 45/40/85 would be a great fit. Not that those guys are easy to get either, but it?s attainable. I could actually see NAW growing (in time) into that kind of profile, though I accept that I am alone in the Pelverse in seeing Nickeil as a shooting guard....
    That fella may well be on the "roster" already. He's kickin it with Wallabies again this year.

  8. #33
    Quote Originally Posted by luckyman View Post
    That fella may well be on the "roster" already. He's kickin it with Wallabys again this year.
    Didi is a strange bet for me because he was pretty efficient prior to Australia, posting 49/42/74 splits across 48 total games in 2018-19 over various leagues, but then in Aus last year he posted 42/37/65 in 28 games. I know that the NBL is a slight step up from South American competition, but it's not a monumental leap, so I wonder if last year was an outlier or if the slight improvement in the competition has really impacted him that much. It will be good to see him there again this year to see if he can show some improvement: if he can't, then I'd be slightly concerned for the potential of him coming over anytime soon.

  9. #34
    Quote Originally Posted by Pelicanidae View Post
    Didi is a strange bet for me because he was pretty efficient prior to Australia, posting 49/42/74 splits across 48 total games in 2018-19 over various leagues, but then in Aus last year he posted 42/37/65 in 28 games. I know that the NBL is a slight step up from South American competition, but it's not a monumental leap, so I wonder if last year was an outlier or if the slight improvement in the competition has really impacted him that much. It will be good to see him there again this year to see if he can show some improvement: if he can't, then I'd be slightly concerned for the potential of him coming over anytime soon.
    He very much had a NAW type season with the Kings

    Had 1 or 2 games where he hit 7 threes and looked amazing, but was pretty nondescript outside of that. I'm not that high on him.

  10. #35
    Quote Originally Posted by AusPel View Post
    He very much had a NAW type season with the Kings

    Had 1 or 2 games where he hit 7 threes and looked amazing, but was pretty nondescript outside of that. I'm not that high on him.
    Absolutely, if you remove the two games where he went 8/11 and 7/11 from three respectively, in the remaining 26 games he shot 37/118, which is 31.3% from 3. Obviously not very impressive. So the question is, is that 31.3% representative of his actual ability against slightly tougher competition, or was it a bad year due to adjustments and getting used to the language and various other external stresses?

    If he shoots 37% from 3 again this year, but it's a more consistent 37% rather than one buoyed by some outlier performances, then my excitement might start ticking up again, but right now I'm quite suspicious. I watched about 6 or 7 full games of him last year in Sydney and I was not thrilled by any of them.

  11. #36
    NAW can pass and playmake—though I think he overestimates his ability to do so, at times. But long term I’d rather see him out there playing next to a Bledsoe or Kira Lewis rather than as a lead guard. Worked well for his cousin last year in OKC...

  12. #37
    Quote Originally Posted by new city champ View Post
    NAW can pass and playmake—though I think he overestimates his ability to do so, at times. But long term I’d rather see him out there playing next to a Bledsoe or Kira Lewis rather than as a lead guard. Worked well for his cousin last year in OKC...
    I agree that NAW is probably a combo guard long term, rather than a pure point, absolutely. He's a skilled passer with size but his vision isn't anything special and he's a step slower as a decision maker sometimes than you would want from a lead guard.

  13. #38
    I don't know know why people are assuming guy picked 35 is gonna become a major rotation piece like it's an inevitable trajectory of his development

  14. #39
    Don’t think too many people assume Didi is NBA material. Seemed Pels were way higher on him than most scouts. What I would love is to see him playing on our G-League franchise rather than overseas again. Maybe they’ll try to put something together in the spring...

  15. #40
    Quote Originally Posted by AusPel View Post
    I don't know know why people are assuming guy picked 35 is gonna become a major rotation piece like it's an inevitable trajectory of his development
    He looked really good in Summer League, is my best guess.

  16. #41
    Quote Originally Posted by new city champ View Post
    Don’t think too many people assume Didi is NBA material. Seemed Pels were way higher on him than most scouts. What I would love is to see him playing on our G-League franchise rather than overseas again. Maybe they’ll try to put something together in the spring...
    Who exactly is "too many people"? Pels had him higher than most scouts according to what? What in the world are you talking about?

    Every single person in here talking about Didi is doing so from their own unfounded opinion. And most of which seems based on him being a 35th pick.

    I don't put too much stock into stats from summer league or his first year in the NBL as a 19 year old. My assessment comes from my own eyes and what I've seen him do on the floor. Not where he was picked or by removing his best games in Australia.

    I see a player very capable of being that NBA wing this team is looking for. And I HIGHLY doubt the Pelicans never bring him over.
    Last edited by luckyman; 11-26-2020 at 07:28 AM.

  17. #42
    Quote Originally Posted by luckyman View Post

    I see a player very capable of being that NBA wing this team is looking for.

  18. #43
    I just want NAW to make the easy play. shoot open shots, make a play off the catch and on the move. It's when he kills it that his handle gets sloppy and he makes poor decisions. It's expected of a rookie but he hesitates way too much. I dont think he's a combo guard. It's a shame because I thought he would be farther along when he was drafted, we all know he's got tools.

  19. #44
    You guys are talking about Brandon Ingram. He is essentially our SG on offense. He has to bring up the FG% a smudge but he's close with 3pt% and FT%. You're not going to get those numbers on a low utilization guy.....because why in God's name would a team have someone with those numbers and then not give him the ball much?

    What we need is the prototypical low usage 3 and D wing ....which brings us back full circle to the OP.
    PSA: Not a single elite poster or pels "insider" predicted the Cousins trade, Jrue to the Bucks, or the Adams trade. They didn't know about the Adams extension before Woj and Shams reported it and no one connected us to Kira Lewis in the draft.

    Because there ARE no elite posters/insiders. We're all equals in Pels Fandom.

    "There is only so much film an amateur can watch before they begin to think they know more than they do."

    - Abraham Lincoln

  20. #45
    There?s a small twinkle of a chance that under an SVG - Zo could be in the range of a productive introverted Draymond of the backcourt.

    And everyone knows now that Draymond is just a special key that fits one special hole.

    Who knows? With generational talent Zion and T Max BI...he might be the key for them.

  21. #46
    Quote Originally Posted by Pelifan View Post
    I just want NAW to make the easy play. shoot open shots, make a play off the catch and on the move. It's when he kills it that his handle gets sloppy and he makes poor decisions. It's expected of a rookie but he hesitates way too much. I dont think he's a combo guard. It's a shame because I thought he would be farther along when he was drafted, we all know he's got tools.
    Give him time. Draymond Green, a 35th pick (same as Didi), averaged 4 pts and 4 rebounds in 18 minutes his first 2 years in the league. And he was 22 his rookie year.

    NAW just needs to speed up and attack harder a little bit.

  22. #47
    Quote Originally Posted by luckyman View Post
    Who exactly is "too many people"? Pels had him higher than most scouts according to what? What in the world are you talking about?

    Every single person in here talking about Didi is doing so from their own unfounded opinion. And most of which seems based on him being a 35th pick.

    I don't put too much stock into stats from summer league or his first year in the NBL as a 19 year old. My assessment comes from my own eyes and what I've seen him do on the floor. Not where he was picked or by removing his best games in Australia.

    I see a player very capable of being that NBA wing this team is looking for. And I HIGHLY doubt the Pelicans never bring him over.
    I assume when you say “every single person in here talking about Didi is doing so from their own unfounded opinion” you are including yourself in that number. Of course we are expressing our opinions and observations. This is a discussion forum. That’s mainly what goes on here. If I was giving someone else’s opinion, I’d cite that person. As for the foundation for my opinions, they come from my observations or conclusions based on available information. That’s it.

    My observation is that not too many people who have watched Didi play over the last 18 months or so, and expressed their opinions here and elsewhere, are assuming he’ll be an NBA player. Might he turn out to be? Sure and that would be great. But that outcome is far from assumed. My observation is that no pre-draft reporting services that I saw projected Didi going as high as 35 and that many didn’t have him getting drafted at all. If you have information to the contrary, by all means share it. Short of that, Happy Thanksgiving!

  23. #48
    Quote Originally Posted by Wowowowow View Post
    There?s a small twinkle of a chance that under an SVG - Zo could be in the range of a productive introverted Draymond of the backcourt.

    And everyone knows now that Draymond is just a special key that fits one special hole.

    Who knows? With generational talent Zion and T Max BI...he might be the key for them.
    That's a very realistic assessment. I think there's a slight slight chance he works himself into a bottom tier 3rd star. He's got the work ethic for it. It's silly to discount anyone with talent and a great work ethic. It's way more likely he'll be "that other starter". The glue guy. Every championship team has those. His D is on trajectory for it (defense is so underrated) and he worked on the 3 enough to get him there. His passing is getting some troll level ragging but it's there......and that's all you need from "the other starter". Anything lower assessment is a bad take because he's already at that level.

    He's not currently worth top 3 player money, so that's a valid argument for wanting to trade him to a team wanting to pay him like one.......but that's about the only legit statement that's been made in favor of trading him.

  24. #49
    Quote Originally Posted by new city champ View Post
    I assume when you say “every single person in here talking about Didi is doing so from their own unfounded opinion” you are including yourself in that number. Of course we are expressing our opinions and observations. This is a discussion forum. That’s mainly what goes on here. If I was giving someone else’s opinion, I’d cite that person. As for the foundation for my opinions, they come from my observations or conclusions based on available information. That’s it.

    My observation is that not too many people who have watched Didi play over the last 18 months or so, and expressed their opinions here and elsewhere, are assuming he’ll be an NBA player. Might he turn out to be? Sure and that would be great. But that outcome is far from assumed. My observation is that no pre-draft reporting services that I saw projected Didi going as high as 35 and that many didn’t have him getting drafted at all. If you have information to the contrary, by all means share it. Short of that, Happy Thanksgiving!
    Obviously I'm included in people giving opinions, because nothing I said involve "many people." If its "many" people that assume he's not an NBA player, you should be able to name one. That way we can check their authority on the matter. For all I all know you're just regurgitating somebody like MM.

    There is nothing about Didi's game, at his age and experience, to suggest he's not an NBA player, and the Pelicans are just dumb to commit these resources to him. I see what they see. The language barrier is a real hindrance. Otherwise his game is ready to be state side g-league at worst. No idea what you or "many people" are talking about.

  25. #50
    This is a boring argument about semantics. I wrote "Don't think too many people assume Didi is NBA material." That's my impression based on the past year-and-a-half of discussions here and elsewhere and because nothing he's done since he's been drafted have given rise to an "assumption" that he'll make it in the NBA. It's just a possibility that remains to be proven.

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