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Thread: 2021 NBA Draft Discussion

  1. #526
    Quote Originally Posted by Pelicanidae View Post
    I believe, and I may be wrong here because I haven't checked and I am on a lot of painkillers, that because the Bulls won the season over us, we get the higher pick if we tie. So they don't need to win everything, I don't think. They'd still have to win 2 though, which is obviously difficult. That said, the Raptors are not as impossible as you might think (they are 27-42 and have a worse record than the Bulls right now, having lost 6 of their last 7). So really they just need to steal one against the Bucks or Nets.

    Bucks have lost to the Spurs by +20, and both Houston and Atlanta by 7 in the last few weeks. Nets have dropped 4 of their last 5, and overall have a losing record when Harden doesn't play.

    I don't think it's likely that we'll surpass the Bulls, sadly, but I also don't think it's quite as impossible as it would be if they had to win all three. It's unlikely but at least not completely ridiculous that they could beat the Raptors and then win one of the other two.

    But in all those scenarios, we would have to drop all three.
    I believe, and I may be wrong here because I actually have a career and I get NO SLEEP. Not looking this up now.

    But I believe ties for the draft lottery are broken through coin flips. So the season series doesn't matter. Whoever wins the coin toss gets the higher draft slot in the 1st round. They reverse it in the 2nd round.

    So if end up tied with the Bulls at 8, a coin toss will decide who gets it.

  2. #527
    Quote Originally Posted by luckyman View Post
    I believe, and I may be wrong here because I actually have a career and I get NO SLEEP. Not looking this up now.

    But I believe ties for the draft lottery are broken through coin flips. So the season series doesn't matter. Whoever wins the coin toss gets the higher draft slot in the 1st round. They reverse it in the 2nd round.

    So if end up tied with the Bulls at 8, a coin toss will decide who gets it
    .
    Makes sense, completely forgot about the coinflip stuff.

    This is where that win the other night could burn us; guaranteeing a worse record than the Bulls would still have been difficult, given their remaining games and ours, but once we won that game it became basically impossible.
    Cade Cunningham/Usman Garuba/Scottie Barnes/Moses Moody/Corey Kispert endorser.

    Eye test people: analytics people watch more basketball than you do.

  3. #528
    I ask again -- how does this board not know EVERYTHING about the draft and draft lottery by now? Heck, we just lost a coin flip last year. We are in the lotto every freaking year. This should be the one thing we all know
    @mcnamara247

  4. #529
    Quote Originally Posted by Pelicanidae View Post
    He's got decent strength but it's not outlier level, and I really just don't see notable burst at all tbh. He's not a stiff or anything but when he drove in college he was regularly unable to get that first step on college defenders. Part of that is handle related; the shake just isn't there, but the burst is a factor as well.

    Lillard and Lowry are limited playmakers compared to CP3, I don't really think that's contentious. The reason that someone like Lillard is able to be an effective playmaker in spite of those handle/creativity concerns (he's a better handler than Suggs anyway, but that's not the point really) is that he's an insane scoring threat and his defenders have to over-play everything as a result of that, which opens things up. Suggs is not that level of on-ball threat, at least not right now: people worry about Lillard because if they don't press up on him he'll drop a 26 foot pullup on them and hit them at 38%+: Suggs is not yet that level of shooter. Maybe one day he will be, I don't deny that he will improve (Again, if I didn't think he'd improve I wouldn't have him top 5) but right now he does not and will not have anything close to that level of impact due to those limitations.

    Gonzaga was honestly a blessing for Suggs because they were able to put him in the perfect position to maximise basically all of his strengths and minimise almost all of his weaknesses, and it's done a wonder for his public perception. Let this be a lesson to all NBA prospects going to college: pick your college wisely, the position they put you in can change your perception massively.
    Its hard to debate this because you're listing all of his strengths as weaknesses. He's not strong? Outside of Ben Simmons I can't think of a stronger PG to enter the league in the last 10 drafts. He has no burst? He's incredibly quick and fast with incredible balance. He has no shake? Sure his handle could be tighter, but he definitely knows how to keep the defender off balance and get by his man in isolation. Go watch his football highlights and say he doesn't have shake. His footwork is amazing on the field and the court. Im not seeing these limitations you are talking about. I feel like we're speaking about 2 different players lol

  5. #530
    Quote Originally Posted by HoustonPelicans View Post
    Its hard to debate this because you're listing all of his strengths as weaknesses. He's not strong? Outside of Ben Simmons I can't think of a stronger PG to enter the league in the last 10 drafts. He has no burst? He's incredibly quick and fast with incredible balance. He has no shake? Sure his handle could be tighter, but he definitely knows how to keep the defender off balance and get by his man in isolation. Go watch his football highlights and say he doesn't have shake. His footwork is amazing on the field and the court. Im not seeing these limitations you are talking about. I feel like we're speaking about 2 different players lol
    Burst is not speed. Lots of players have elite straight line quickness but who are not explosive with that first push off, and there are also players who have explosive first steps who are not outliers in terms of straight line speed.

    There are stronger PGs in this draft, let alone past ones; Springer comes to mind, for example, as a guy who is absolutely stronger physically than Suggs, and if you count Cade as a PG then he is too.

    Handle tightness has nothing to do with shake (though it does help). There are players with incredibly elaborate handles but very little shake (LaMelo is one example) and players who have tons of it but whose handles are comparatively mediocre as well.

    I feel like we're at a point in your appreciation with Suggs where you feel like my critique is an insult rather than just comment. I've said a bunch of times, I still have him top 5, it's not like I'm insulting him or saying he's a bad prospect. He's got flaws, though, and I've highlighted some of them. There are very few players who enter the draft without noteworthy flaws; even players that everyone knew was going to be generational like AD had flaws that people highlighted at the time. The fact that this is also true for Suggs isn't an insult.

  6. #531
    Woke up to see we are 9th. Nice...

  7. #532
    Quote Originally Posted by Taker597 View Post
    Woke up to see we are 9th. Nice...
    Tied for 9th. If we would have lost to Charlotte, we would be solo 9th with a shot at solo 8th or tied 8th

  8. #533
    Charter Member PELICANSFAN's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by As I See It View Post
    What have we traded away or let slip through our fingers over the last five years for whatever reason....

    PG - Jrue Holiday, Rajon Rondo, Elfrid Payton.
    SG - Buddy Hield, E'Twaun Moore
    SF - Nikola Mirotic, Kenrich Williams
    PF - Anthony Davis, Kenrich Williams
    C - Julius Randle, Christian Wood

    It may not be a Championship team, but it's not without considerable talent. What was Alvin doing?
    In fairness, that is looking at all of those players and transactions in a vacuum. There are other players/assets that are here because some of those are gone.

  9. #534
    I'm super hesitant about drafting another small guard, but Davion does seem to have the kind of motor and defensive tenacity and shooting skills this team sorely lacks in the back court. If he's there when we pick, he will likely be BPA and we should take him.

    He and Lonzo could play in the back court together should we keep Lonzo.


  10. #535
    Quote Originally Posted by Impose View Post
    I'm super hesitant about drafting another small guard, but Davion does seem to have the kind of motor and defensive tenacity and shooting skills this team sorely lacks in the back court. If he's there when we pick, he will likely be BPA and we should take him.

    He and Lonzo could play in the back court together should we keep Lonzo.

    There's like...one person who I've seen call him a "small" guard really (not talking about you). Even if he's really 6'0" (listed at 6'2"), he's built like a tank, thick upper body, very strong, elite short area quickness, and has Kira level speed. Add in a handle that if not elite already, will be in a couple years time.

    He is by no means whatsoever a small guard.
    Last edited by luckyman; 05-13-2021 at 11:49 PM.

  11. #536
    Quote Originally Posted by luckyman View Post
    There's like...one person who I've seen call him a "small" guard really (not talking about you). Even if he's really 6'0" (listed at 6'2"), he's built like a tank, thick upper body, very strong, elite short area quickness, and has Kira level speed. Add in a handle that if not elite already, will be in a couple years time.

    He is by no means whatsoever a small guard.
    He's small. He's 6'2 at max and has a 6'3 wingspan by most accounts; this is not the measurements of a big guard. The fact that he's also built doesn't change that: Kyle Lowry is a famously thicc lad and he's still small. There are limitations imposed by being 6'2 with a 6'3 span that you have to deal with regardless of how strong you are.

    I think Mitchell will be a decent NBA player but I really think there's going to be some team that takes him in the top 10 based of the late surge in hype for him and they are going to regret it when several better players come out after him. The level of play you have to put out as a someone 6'3 or under in order to counteract the downsides of your height is astronomical; small guards have to be so good for it to matter, their floor is super low.

    Don't buy Mitchell's playmaking at a high level, I am very sceptical about how real his shooting is, and his biggest strength (point of attack defense, imo) is less valuable at the NBA level regardless of height but especially for small guys with short wingspans.

    Take him at #20, I think you'll probably be fine, take him at (for example) #8 and I think you'll have issues.

  12. #537
    Quote Originally Posted by Pelicanidae View Post
    He's small. He's 6'2 at max and has a 6'3 wingspan by most accounts; this is not the measurements of a big guard. The fact that he's also built doesn't change that: Kyle Lowry is a famously thicc lad and he's still small. There are limitations imposed by being 6'2 with a 6'3 span that you have to deal with regardless of how strong you are.

    I think Mitchell will be a decent NBA player but I really think there's going to be some team that takes him in the top 10 based of the late surge in hype for him and they are going to regret it when several better players come out after him. The level of play you have to put out as a someone 6'3 or under in order to counteract the downsides of your height is astronomical; small guards have to be so good for it to matter, their floor is super low.

    Don't buy Mitchell's playmaking at a high level, I am very sceptical about how real his shooting is, and his biggest strength (point of attack defense, imo) is less valuable at the NBA level regardless of height but especially for small guys with short wingspans.

    Take him at #20, I think you'll probably be fine, take him at (for example) #8 and I think you'll have issues.
    Kyle lowery was listed as 6'0" 175 coming out of college. Then once in the NBA, he's was accused of being lazy and instead of adding muscle, added straight up fat. He was called fat and got himself traded. Thick doesn't always mean the same things.

    Davion Mitchell is listed as 6'2" 205 coming out of college. Is probably 6'0" without shoes, so call him a legit 6'1" with shoes. Any wingspan you see is to be taken with a grain of salt until the NBA combine. I haven't seen 6'3" anywhere and have only seen one who says 6'5". Regardless, strength and quickness make up for any wingspan and is the better determinant of ability to play NBA defense along with defensive IQ. Meaning he'll use his feet to get in position more than trying to reach and swipe.

    All the rest of this talk is just mere opinion in the face of actual ability on tape. Everybody is entitled to one. And I disagree entirely with yours here. What you say about "small guards" is just not accurate imo. As if we are talking about 2 different players.
    Last edited by luckyman; 05-14-2021 at 06:46 AM.

  13. #538
    Quote Originally Posted by Pelicanidae View Post
    Burst is not speed. Lots of players have elite straight line quickness but who are not explosive with that first push off, and there are also players who have explosive first steps who are not outliers in terms of straight line speed.

    There are stronger PGs in this draft, let alone past ones; Springer comes to mind, for example, as a guy who is absolutely stronger physically than Suggs, and if you count Cade as a PG then he is too.

    Handle tightness has nothing to do with shake (though it does help). There are players with incredibly elaborate handles but very little shake (LaMelo is one example) and players who have tons of it but whose handles are comparatively mediocre as well.

    I feel like we're at a point in your appreciation with Suggs where you feel like my critique is an insult rather than just comment. I've said a bunch of times, I still have him top 5, it's not like I'm insulting him or saying he's a bad prospect. He's got flaws, though, and I've highlighted some of them. There are very few players who enter the draft without noteworthy flaws; even players that everyone knew was going to be generational like AD had flaws that people highlighted at the time. The fact that this is also true for Suggs isn't an insult.
    I don't think you're insulting Suggs at all. We just disagree on him not having burst, strength or shake. I respect your opinion nonetheless. Those are just attributes I saw as strengths from him, not weaknesses.

  14. #539
    Thought I'd run a few lottery sims given that we're in joint 9th right now, to see the change from last time (when we were in 10th).

    30 sims; what do we get:

    - 1st x2
    - 2nd
    - 3rd
    - 4th x3
    - 9th x13
    - 10th x7
    - 11th x3

    Not great! At joint 9th we have a 50.7% chance at the 9th pick, which is a pick where I think talent would be available (were we to use it) but obviously not the top top tier talent. After that, with 28.3% chance, 10th is the most likely pick. With only a 17.3% chance at a top 4 pick, getting 7 top 4 finished out of 30 rolls is actually more than the overall statistical likelihood.

  15. #540
    As big to me is the luck of the other Western Conference teams. Watching OKC get #1 and 5 to add to SGA would have them catapult them over us in my mind when you consider their flexibility and other assets. I dont want Golden State getting the 4th or 5th pick either, but I dont know if I would love it if Minny got #1 either. I think, ideally, I want a couple of Eastern Conference teams to leap into the top 3, have Houston get 4 and OKC get #6, Minny get #7 and give it to Golden State. Thats if we dont jump into the top 4, of course. Probably the biggest lotto for multiple teams that I can remember. The year Memphis either got #1 or gave it to Detroit was huge too, but there were only two teams involved in that. This year seems to have ramifications for so many franchises

  16. #541
    I dont mind Davion Mitchell being mocked to us. For all I know he is the second coming of kyle lowry. but looking a little closer at the PG's I couldnt help but notice Miles McBride compared to him. remember mitchell is two years older. It's safe to say Mcbride would improve on his numbers over the next two years. Im not saying he is better than Mitchell, but considering FT% and finishing ability I would definitely consider taking McBride over him if we went PG


    McBride 16pts , 4.9 ast, 3.9 reb
    Mitchell 14pts , 5.5 ast, 2.7 reb

    Mcbride 41% 3pt
    Mitchell 44% 3pt

    Mcbride 81% FT
    Mitchell 65% FT
    Last edited by fullcourtpress; 05-20-2021 at 08:46 AM.

  17. #542
    Quote Originally Posted by fullcourtpress View Post
    I dont mind Davion Mitchell being mocked to us. For all I know he is the second coming of kyle lowry. but looking a little closer at the PG's I couldnt help but notice Miles McBride compared to him. remember mitchell is two years older. It's safe to say Mcbride would improve on his numbers over the next two years. Im not saying he is better than Mitchell, but considering FT% and finishing ability I would definitely consider taking McBride over him if we went PG


    McBride 16pts , 4.9 ast, 3.9 reb
    Mitchell 14pts , 5.5 ast, 2.7 reb

    Mcbride 41% 3pt
    Mitchell 44% 3pt

    Mcbride 81% FT
    Mitchell 65% FT
    I feel you, but stats don’t tell the whole story.

  18. #543
    Quote Originally Posted by HornetGuru View Post
    I feel you, but stats don’t tell the whole story.

    I totally agree. But am not sure what the story is.

  19. #544
    Quote Originally Posted by fullcourtpress View Post
    I totally agree. But am not sure what the story is.
    Those are all very basic offensive stats. Mitchell makes his name first and foremost on the defensive side of the ball. His on ball creation and shooting is just a cherry on top.

    Go look at how he handled Cade Cunningham both times he played him. Cunningham supposedly has a 6- 8 inch height advantage.
    Last edited by luckyman; 05-20-2021 at 09:20 AM.

  20. #545
    Quote Originally Posted by fullcourtpress View Post
    I dont mind Davion Mitchell being mocked to us. For all I know he is the second coming of kyle lowry. but looking a little closer at the PG's I couldnt help but notice Miles McBride compared to him. remember mitchell is two years older. It's safe to say Mcbride would improve on his numbers over the next two years. Im not saying he is better than Mitchell, but considering FT% and finishing ability I would definitely consider taking McBride over him if we went PG


    McBride 16pts , 4.9 ast, 3.9 reb
    Mitchell 14pts , 5.5 ast, 2.7 reb

    Mcbride 41% 3pt
    Mitchell 44% 3pt

    Mcbride 81% FT
    Mitchell 65% FT
    McBride is not an NBA primary, and I love McBride. But, just like Mitchell, his greatest defensive strength is on ball which are far less valuable in the NBA than it is in college.

    That said, one of the things McBride does have which Mitchell doesn't is the FT% in his favor.

    The reality is, every single year there are players in college who shoot well from 3 but not from the line, and it's the three ball that's the outlier. There's a reason that 90% of college scouts don't take raw single year 3pt % that seriously when projecting NBA shooting ability, and that reason is that it just doesn't correlate much of the time. It's far more important for a college player to show FT% consistency, and a diverse range of shot attempts. Someone who shoots 80% from the FT line and takes a wide range of 3pt attempts but only shoots 35% on them is a much better bet to be a real NBA shooter than someone who shoots 60% from the FT line and who only takes spot up threes, even if they hit those threes are 45%.

    Mitchell shot 28% from 3 in his freshman year, and 67% from the line. Then, his second year, he shot 32% from 3 and 66% from the line. Then, his third year, he shoots 44% from 3 and 64% from the line: you'd have to be insanely credulous to not be at least slightly suspicious of that single year 3pt% boost. Maybe it does represent a real random leap up as a shooter, but you've got to at least wonder how and why it's happened, and why it hasn't represented any improvement from 2pt range or from the FT line.

  21. #546
    Did some watching of the prospects in this draft.


    I think my favorites are gonna be in no particular order and doesn't include the obvious 1st overall pick

    Jalen Green
    Evan Mobley
    Moses Moody
    Scottie Barnes
    Jaden Springer

    Player I'd digress but hope for the best

    Jalen Suggs
    Jonathan Kuminga


    Players I like to gamble on in mid teens

    Ziaire Williams
    Tre Mann
    Davion Mitchell
    Corey Kispert

    I'd trade up for a late 1st rounder to draft these guys & my 2nd round guys

    Jared Butler
    Cam Thomas
    JT Thor
    Joel Ayayi
    Herb Jones

    If I had the choice... I'd try to get Two or Three 1st round selection in this draft. This anti-young player attitude is dumb. If Zion was 25... I'd understand, but you gotta invest in a great draft when it comes around. He we need Alphas, Starters, and Bench anchors...

  22. #547
    There's no way we're making 3 FRPs in this draft, and really, we shouldn't aim to.

    Even if/when Lonzo goes, we'll have NAW, Zion, Jax, Kira, Naji, Ingram, and whoever our actual FRP is on the team all below the age of 25. That's 7 guys: that's half the roster, pretty much.

    I can see moving up into the late first to draft a guy who is maybe a bit older, a bit less of a prospect, just for cheap bench depth or to use the pick as a trade piece (if we did draft there, I'd be interested in seeing if Jared Butler is still available, big fan), but that's pretty much it. Make your (hopefully) top 4 pick and move on.

  23. #548
    Quote Originally Posted by Pelicanidae View Post
    There's no way we're making 3 FRPs in this draft, and really, we shouldn't aim to.

    Even if/when Lonzo goes, we'll have NAW, Zion, Jax, Kira, Naji, Ingram, and whoever our actual FRP is on the team all below the age of 25. That's 7 guys: that's half the roster, pretty much.

    I can see moving up into the late first to draft a guy who is maybe a bit older, a bit less of a prospect, just for cheap bench depth or to use the pick as a trade piece (if we did draft there, I'd be interested in seeing if Jared Butler is still available, big fan), but that's pretty much it. Make your (hopefully) top 4 pick and move on.

    *IF I HAD THE CHOICE OF 2 0r 3



    I only said 3 for a super late 1st, because we have about 4 2nd round picks. You might aswell try to move up for a talent you like in the late 1st than keep them. If really fancy a Top 10 pick and another one in the teens... Yet, I got all these 2nd round picks... Might as well just get the best 2nd round pick that you can in the very late 1st.

  24. #549
    Quote Originally Posted by Taker597 View Post
    *IF I HAD THE CHOICE OF 2 0r 3



    I only said 3 for a super late 1st, because we have about 4 2nd round picks. You might aswell try to move up for a talent you like in the late 1st than keep them. If really fancy a Top 10 pick and another one in the teens... Yet, I got all these 2nd round picks... Might as well just get the best 2nd round pick that you can in the very late 1st.
    I agree with that, if you can package your 2nds together and get the 28th pick or something then why wouldn't you?

    But that only makes 2 at most, since we're not getting the LA pick and we only have 1 of our own, so when it came to the 3rd you'd have to move other assets to acquire and I'm not that interested in doing that.

    No big deal though, simply miscommunication.

  25. #550
    Am I wrong in thinking that Cory Kispert would be the safest pick in regards to helping our team win this year? After 4 years at gonzaga, he undoubtedly grasps what is needed to play solid team defense; plus, he brings a skill that happens to be our biggest need in his shooting, both 3pt and FT


    id have a hard time passing up a guy that would almost certainly contribute the first tear

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