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Thread: 2021 NBA Draft Discussion

  1. #651
    Back Door Man RUFshreve's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by AusPel View Post
    I think he's pretty underrated. A lot of mocks don't even have him going at all
    I'd love to get him with one of our many seconds.

  2. #652
    CBS Sports did a mock draft, but didn't take into account coin flips



    How unprofessional is that?

  3. #653
    You clicked on it. All they care about. You think they are staying awake at night caring about accuracy?
    @mcnamara247

  4. #654

  5. #655
    Idk why but I’m still optimistic that we land a top 3 pick in the lotto.

  6. #656
    "You've got the best film in the draft".... I agree...but I'm also pretty sure he didnt make that up on his own. Probably heard that from scouts. So at this point, if they stay at 10 and keep the pick...fingers crossed for Moody.


  7. #657
    Quote Originally Posted by RUFshreve View Post
    Dae, what are your thoughts about Filip Petru?ev?

    He's a 6'11 PF that averaged 22/8 in 31 minutes per game in the ABA this year. He shot 45% from 3 and 72% from the FT line. All I know is what I've seen in highlight videos, but we've been wanting a stretch big next to Zion and he looks like he could fill that role in a year or two as he grows into it. I'd love if we could get him with one of our early seconds, but most mocks I've seen have him going late 1st.
    I like him fine as a 2nd rounder, I don't really buy the shooting at that kind of level in an NBA context and he's not massively mobile or outlier good defensively either (though he does have moments of being solid on D).
    Cade Cunningham/Usman Garuba/Scottie Barnes/Moses Moody/Corey Kispert endorser.

    Eye test people: analytics people watch more basketball than you do.

  8. #658
    Can anyone tell me what the knock on Jalen Johnson from Duke is? Dude seems to have all kinds of tools. Combo forward? Great size, athleticism, strength. Good defender, good 3pt shooter. He looks like he’d be a great fit

  9. #659
    Quote Originally Posted by HornetGuru View Post
    Can anyone tell me what the knock on Jalen Johnson from Duke is? Dude seems to have all kinds of tools. Combo forward? Great size, athleticism, strength. Good defender, good 3pt shooter. He looks like he’d be a great fit
    If he hits his ceiling, he is an almost ideal fit. But the floor is scary. The 3pt percentage isnt real - in the fact that it isnt reflective of the shooter he actually is. He is pretty raw offensively, pretty much just a garbage man in the half court for now. Makes really dumb mistakes, doesnt seem to have great IQ, and him leaving Duke is questionable at best, a red flag at worst.

    He's the kind of gamble you take when you dont have a star and are trying to gamble he becomes one. Not a guy for us IMO. I'll wait until he flames out and get him on his 2nd or 3rd contract when he starts to mature and has been humbled.

  10. #660
    Quote Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara View Post
    If he hits his ceiling, he is an almost ideal fit. But the floor is scary. The 3pt percentage isnt real - in the fact that it isnt reflective of the shooter he actually is. He is pretty raw offensively, pretty much just a garbage man in the half court for now. Makes really dumb mistakes, doesnt seem to have great IQ, and him leaving Duke is questionable at best, a red flag at worst.

    He's the kind of gamble you take when you dont have a star and are trying to gamble he becomes one. Not a guy for us IMO. I'll wait until he flames out and get him on his 2nd or 3rd contract when he starts to mature and has been humbled.
    Heard that

  11. #661
    Also add me on the Jaden Springer hype train. Been watching some of his tape and he would be a great 3 and D fit for us IMO. Athletic, can shoot, can defend very well.

  12. #662
    The Franchise
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    Suggs and springer remind me of George Hill. Solid players and could start on the right teams but don’t think will be stars. That’s why if we trade down a little I’d love to get springer. My ideal situation is sign and trade Zo to Sacramento for 10 (we win lottery and get 3 and take Green). Trade 10 and Bledsoe to Knicks for 19 and 21. Looking at tankathon Springer and Kai Jones are almost always there so I want them and maybe send them to G league this year like Naji.

  13. #663
    Quote Originally Posted by HornetGuru View Post
    Heard that
    I think the single biggest problem Johnson has is that his decision making and processing always seems just a split second too slow. For a guy whose top end outcomes rely on him being capable of making decisions with the ball in his hands (a lot of people have lauded him as almost a point forward type) that's one of the most fatal single issues you can have. Just seems to recognise opportunities right as they close, rather than right as they open - or, in the cases of the very very best players, right before they open.

    It impacts him on defense as well, though he was largely able to use his physical tools to recover in those cases in college, and I do think it's slightly less obvious on D.

  14. #664
    Quote Originally Posted by HornetGuru View Post
    Also add me on the Jaden Springer hype train. Been watching some of his tape and he would be a great 3 and D fit for us IMO. Athletic, can shoot, can defend very well.
    He's intensely strong, and while he's not got the best vision or passing in the class he does have solid passing abilities. And, helpfully enough for our team, his passing is at its best on the interior imo, which would benefit both Zion and Jax depending on lineups. Of course, you don't draft for fit in the top 5, but it's a plus if it works out.

    While I don't like player comparisons in general for various reasons, I do think Springer is the player in the draft that most resembles Jrue in terms of his general style. Strong guard who isn't explosive or a lights out shooter from 30 feet but who uses patience and craft to attack the basket and can playmake well enough to be trusted with the ball in his hands, with room to develop as a shooter further on, and solid defense that uses strength and hands more than vertical or outlier speed.

  15. #665
    A Soulful Sports Fan Contributor Eman5805's Avatar
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    Davion Mitchell is growing on me. But he’s not gonna move any needles. Put him on a bad team and he might put up buckets and numbers. But does he crack the rotation on a team like the Bucks, Miami, or Utah?

  16. #666
    Quote Originally Posted by Eman5805 View Post
    Davion Mitchell is growing on me. But he’s not gonna move any needles. Put him on a bad team and he might put up buckets and numbers. But does he crack the rotation on a team like the Bucks, Miami, or Utah?
    The top flight Mitchell love for me has always been a bit weird.

    I've said it before, but the functional floor for sub 6'3 guards is so high that you absolutely must have a top top top tier skill for it to be worth taking a chance on them in the top 10 or 12.

    Look at the last 5 drafts, for example. How many sub 6'3 guards have been drafted in the lottery, and how many have been any good enough to justify that?

    2020: None in the lottery.
    2019: Darius Garland. Despite being a top shelf shooter, he's a catastrophe inside the arc and on defense. Grades out as a clear negative on all major impact stats. Still early career of course but the downsides to taking someone who is 6'1 show.
    2018: Trae Young - absolute top shelf passer, elite self-creator, can draw fouls like almost nobody else, top tier scorer. Clearly justified.
    Colin Sexton - Extremely good shooter who has managed to consistently improve as a distributor. Despite averaging big numbers, has still not been able to hit a positive BPM over his first three years, and finished well below league average at the rim. Despite elite shooting and solid FT%, hovers around league average TS%. Despite huge growth and several strong skills, which certainly justify his high pick, he's been unable to really create impact on a top level thus far.
    2017: Dennis Smith Jr - Absolute failure of a draft pick that high.
    2016: None drafted

    So over the last 5 years there have been 4 sub 6'3 guards taken in the lottery. One of them has been awful thus far in his career. Two of them have clear positive skills but have been totally unable to translate them into impact because of their flaws, many of which are related to their size - in their defense, them playing together exaggerates these flaws somewhat and makes it even harder on them. The final one has a plethora of elite skills to bolster his game and even then, the weaknesses of his size and frame drag down his overall impact pretty significantly - Trae being a turnstile has huge problems for Atlanta and his height means that he can't execute some of the best passes even though he clearly sees them.

    So the question for me is: What does Mitchell do, at 6'2 with what appears to be a fairly un-noteworthy wingspan, to make him justifiable in the top 10? The only real argument I've seen is the shooting but I just don't buy his shooting on the next level: his recipe of a single year dramatic boost in 3pt% after being bad beforehand, with no real improvement from the FT%, is a false-friend formula that we've seen play out before. It doesn't mean it's not real but it looks an awful lot like something that isn't real might look.

    I can get taking Mitchell at like, #20. Or even #15. Who knows, maybe the shooting is real? But taking him top 10 seems almost negligent to me.

  17. #667
    Quote Originally Posted by Pelicanidae View Post
    The top flight Mitchell love for me has always been a bit weird.

    I've said it before, but the functional floor for sub 6'3 guards is so high that you absolutely must have a top top top tier skill for it to be worth taking a chance on them in the top 10 or 12.

    Look at the last 5 drafts, for example. How many sub 6'3 guards have been drafted in the lottery, and how many have been any good enough to justify that?

    2020: None in the lottery.
    2019: Darius Garland. Despite being a top shelf shooter, he's a catastrophe inside the arc and on defense. Grades out as a clear negative on all major impact stats. Still early career of course but the downsides to taking someone who is 6'1 show.
    2018: Trae Young - absolute top shelf passer, elite self-creator, can draw fouls like almost nobody else, top tier scorer. Clearly justified.
    Colin Sexton - Extremely good shooter who has managed to consistently improve as a distributor. Despite averaging big numbers, has still not been able to hit a positive BPM over his first three years, and finished well below league average at the rim. Despite elite shooting and solid FT%, hovers around league average TS%. Despite huge growth and several strong skills, which certainly justify his high pick, he's been unable to really create impact on a top level thus far.
    2017: Dennis Smith Jr - Absolute failure of a draft pick that high.
    2016: None drafted

    So over the last 5 years there have been 4 sub 6'3 guards taken in the lottery. One of them has been awful thus far in his career. Two of them have clear positive skills but have been totally unable to translate them into impact because of their flaws, many of which are related to their size - in their defense, them playing together exaggerates these flaws somewhat and makes it even harder on them. The final one has a plethora of elite skills to bolster his game and even then, the weaknesses of his size and frame drag down his overall impact pretty significantly - Trae being a turnstile has huge problems for Atlanta and his height means that he can't execute some of the best passes even though he clearly sees them.

    So the question for me is: What does Mitchell do, at 6'2 with what appears to be a fairly un-noteworthy wingspan, to make him justifiable in the top 10? The only real argument I've seen is the shooting but I just don't buy his shooting on the next level: his recipe of a single year dramatic boost in 3pt% after being bad beforehand, with no real improvement from the FT%, is a false-friend formula that we've seen play out before. It doesn't mean it's not real but it looks an awful lot like something that isn't real might look.

    I can get taking Mitchell at like, #20. Or even #15. Who knows, maybe the shooting is real? But taking him top 10 seems almost negligent to me.
    Depending on who you believe, Kira Lewis, Jr is sub 6'3" and part of the 2020 lottery.
    Disclaimer: I would never denigrate or defame Zion Williamson as a man or as a basketball player; he will go down as an NBA great and perhaps a Top 10+ player of all time. Any inference derived from any of my posts to the contrary is your mischaracterization of my words, or a sign of insecurity on your part (perhaps both).

    Respectfully,

    AISI

  18. #668
    Quote Originally Posted by Pelicanidae View Post
    The top flight Mitchell love for me has always been a bit weird.

    I've said it before, but the functional floor for sub 6'3 guards is so high that you absolutely must have a top top top tier skill for it to be worth taking a chance on them in the top 10 or 12.

    Look at the last 5 drafts, for example. How many sub 6'3 guards have been drafted in the lottery, and how many have been any good enough to justify that?

    2020: None in the lottery.
    2019: Darius Garland. Despite being a top shelf shooter, he's a catastrophe inside the arc and on defense. Grades out as a clear negative on all major impact stats. Still early career of course but the downsides to taking someone who is 6'1 show.
    2018: Trae Young - absolute top shelf passer, elite self-creator, can draw fouls like almost nobody else, top tier scorer. Clearly justified.
    Colin Sexton - Extremely good shooter who has managed to consistently improve as a distributor. Despite averaging big numbers, has still not been able to hit a positive BPM over his first three years, and finished well below league average at the rim. Despite elite shooting and solid FT%, hovers around league average TS%. Despite huge growth and several strong skills, which certainly justify his high pick, he's been unable to really create impact on a top level thus far.
    2017: Dennis Smith Jr - Absolute failure of a draft pick that high.
    2016: None drafted

    So over the last 5 years there have been 4 sub 6'3 guards taken in the lottery. One of them has been awful thus far in his career. Two of them have clear positive skills but have been totally unable to translate them into impact because of their flaws, many of which are related to their size - in their defense, them playing together exaggerates these flaws somewhat and makes it even harder on them. The final one has a plethora of elite skills to bolster his game and even then, the weaknesses of his size and frame drag down his overall impact pretty significantly - Trae being a turnstile has huge problems for Atlanta and his height means that he can't execute some of the best passes even though he clearly sees them.

    So the question for me is: What does Mitchell do, at 6'2 with what appears to be a fairly un-noteworthy wingspan, to make him justifiable in the top 10? The only real argument I've seen is the shooting but I just don't buy his shooting on the next level: his recipe of a single year dramatic boost in 3pt% after being bad beforehand, with no real improvement from the FT%, is a false-friend formula that we've seen play out before. It doesn't mean it's not real but it looks an awful lot like something that isn't real might look.

    I can get taking Mitchell at like, #20. Or even #15. Who knows, maybe the shooting is real? But taking him top 10 seems almost negligent to me.
    You've got exceptional blinders on if you keep saying the only thing that he does that is noteworthy is shooting. I mean I'm not going to mention the main things EVERYBODY mentions when they bring up his name. It's extremely obvious at this point. And shooting might be the 4th or 5th thing. I don't need to rehash it because it appears you are going to die on this hill no matter what.

    And just last year, when I first mentioned Kira as player the Pelicans should take at 12 (at that time before the tie breaker), didn't you argue me down that it should be Grant Riller...at 12...a 6'2" guard? Who eventually was a couple picks away from being a UDFA?

    What did Grant Riller do that was so exceptional that you raved about him being a potential lottery pick, but can't do it for Mitchell? Maybe I am mis-remembering or something.
    Last edited by luckyman; 06-12-2021 at 01:54 PM.

  19. #669
    Quote Originally Posted by luckyman View Post
    You've got exceptional blinders on if you keep saying the only thing that he does that is noteworthy is shooting. I mean I'm not going to mention the main things EVERYBODY mentions when they bring up his name. It's extremely obvious at this point. And shooting might be the 4th or 5th thing. I don't need to rehash it because it appears you are going to die on this hill no matter what.

    And just last year, when I first mentioned Kira as player the Pelicans should take at 12 (at that time before the tie breaker), didn't you argue me down that it should be Grant Riller...at 12...a 6'2" guard? Who eventually was a couple picks away from being a UDFA?

    What did Grant Riller do that was so exceptional that you raved about him being a potential lottery pick, but can't do it for Mitchell? Maybe I am mis-remembering or something.
    Grant Riller was the single best finisher in his entire class, regardless of height or position. He shot nearly 70% at the rim with less than 15% of his 2pt attempts assisted. He finished at the rim at basically the same rate as Obi Toppin despite being about 10 inches shorter, and created almost all of it himself. That's an outlier skill. In any case, while I liked Riller a lot (and still think he could get run in the NBA if he was given the chance, which he currently has not been) I wouldn't take him top 10 or even top 15 in this draft. Last year's draft was, I think everyone remembers, notably weak. This year's draft has a much more robust top end.

    I didn't say the only noteworthy thing that Davion Mitchell does is shooting. I said the only argument I've seen made regarding his top 10 rankings has been his shooting, particularly his pullup shooting - that doesn't meant it's the only noteworthy thing he does. For example, he's also a very good college POA defender. I've been very open about how much I do not value POA attack in comparison to team defense at the NBA level, but whether I value it particularly highly or not doesn't change that he is good at it. It does, however, change whether I think it's something that justifies a top 10 pick in a draft with some actual top end value.

  20. #670
    Quote Originally Posted by Pelicanidae View Post
    Grant Riller was the single best finisher in his entire class, regardless of height or position. He shot nearly 70% at the rim with less than 15% of his 2pt attempts assisted. He finished at the rim at basically the same rate as Obi Toppin despite being about 10 inches shorter, and created almost all of it himself. That's an outlier skill. In any case, while I liked Riller a lot (and still think he could get run in the NBA if he was given the chance, which he currently has not been) I wouldn't take him top 10 or even top 15 in this draft. Last year's draft was, I think everyone remembers, notably weak. This year's draft has a much more robust top end.

    I didn't say the only noteworthy thing that Davion Mitchell does is shooting. I said the only argument I've seen made regarding his top 10 rankings has been his shooting, particularly his pullup shooting - that doesn't meant it's the only noteworthy thing he does. For example, he's also a very good college POA defender. I've been very open about how much I do not value POA attack in comparison to team defense at the NBA level, but whether I value it particularly highly or not doesn't change that he is good at it. It does, however, change whether I think it's something that justifies a top 10 pick in a draft with some actual top end value.
    Ok well in no draft would I ever have considered Grant Riller a lottery pick. Won't rehash why since we went over that in that old thread.

    And again, when you bring up Davion Mitchell, shooting in down the list as to why people consider him a lottery pick. And Mitchell is not only a good POA defender, which still carries much weight at the guard position, but a great defender overall. He rarely gets beaten back door and does the sneaky things off ball that leads to blind side steals and such.

    Offensively, he actually deferred a lot to Jared Butler and Macio Teague, and did a great job setting up easy looks for "Everyday Jon" and Vital. He's a true point guard that can also self-create at a high level. I'm also pretty sure he's one of the best guards finishing at the rim in this draft. I'll just leave it at that.
    Last edited by luckyman; 06-12-2021 at 02:27 PM.

  21. #671
    Back Door Man RUFshreve's Avatar
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    Davion Mitchell is the real deal. If we're not picking top 4 and Moody is off the board, Mitchell is the guy I'm hoping for. Shooting isn't his best skill either.

  22. #672
    Again, I dont think we keep the pick, but if we do Keon is my guy. Offensive floor is scary but in the lotto, you go on upside and if the guy busts you shrug your shoulders and move on. And to me, Keon has the upside. Looking at the West and the 25 and under guys we will have to compete with for the next decade, it is clear that you need to get a guy who can make it a nightmare for the Luka's, Bookers, Mitchell's, etc - and Keon is the guy most likely to make that happen if he hits his ceiling. You bet on him finding his offensive over time, and if he does, he has the highest ceiling outside of the top 4 IMO. Maybe even more than Suggs

  23. #673
    Back Door Man RUFshreve's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara View Post
    Again, I dont think we keep the pick, but if we do Keon is my guy. Offensive floor is scary but in the lotto, you go on upside and if the guy busts you shrug your shoulders and move on. And to me, Keon has the upside. Looking at the West and the 25 and under guys we will have to compete with for the next decade, it is clear that you need to get a guy who can make it a nightmare for the Luka's, Bookers, Mitchell's, etc - and Keon is the guy most likely to make that happen if he hits his ceiling. You bet on him finding his offensive over time, and if he does, he has the highest ceiling outside of the top 4 IMO. Maybe even more than Suggs
    What makes him so much better defensively than Mitchell, that you take Keon over him? Other than height, wingspan and age I guess, what is Keon superior at?

  24. #674
    Quote Originally Posted by RUFshreve View Post
    What makes him so much better defensively than Mitchell, that you take Keon over him? Other than height, wingspan and age I guess, what is Keon superior at?
    Well, height and wingspan are pretty vital things on defense tbh even if they were all it is, that's fairly significant. It's much more valuable to be 6'5 with a 6'8 estimated wingspan than it is to be 6'2 with a 6'5 estimated wingspan.

    Also important to remember Davion will be 23 before he ever touches an NBA court whereas Keon will still be 19: even if you think Davion is better now (which, in some ways he is) the real question is whether you think Keon will be more likely to be worth the payout after 4 years of rookie-contract development than Davion will: Davion will be 27 by then, so whatever he is at that point is what he is, whereas with Keon (as Mac says) there's much more upside; he could develop well or poorly, but if things go well he'll be 23 and good with room still to grow.

    Note: I'm not even a huge huge huge Keon fan. I like him fine but I have scepticism regarding his likelihood of hitting those high offensive upsides.

  25. #675

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