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Bey is the only guy projected around 13 that I would be massively disappointed by. I would have preferences, of course, but Bey is the exact type of pick a team in our position almost always makes. And it always fails. I went back and looked at every team who had a pick in our range the year after getting a transcendent player and they all do the same thing -- draft high floor, low ceiling guys (like Bey), and it never ever works. Always a bustOriginally Posted by DOMINION
@mcnamara247
Yeah I'm also very much unimpressed by Saddiq Bey. I also think something that goes largely undiscussed about him is that his floor is not nearly as high as people think it is.
For example, we're talking about a guy who, if he's forced to do almost anything other than pure auxiliary perimeter play, he falls apart. He is such a limited ballhandler that he's almost useless off the catch (not 100% useless like a Nesmith, but pretty damn awful) and can't really defend the perimeter particularly well. I know people like him as a defender because he's ''good'' at a college level, but when you're looking to see if a college defender will translate to the NBA level they either have to show elite awareness and be physically capable of executing on that awareness, or they have to be fundamentally perfect and capable of having the technique to support that fundamental knowledge. Bey doesn't: he doesn't really slide his feet very well, for example, and when he's attacked on-ball by shifty ballhandlers he turns completely and chases, which often puts him in awful positions. If your entire appeal is fundamental soundness, that's the sort of thing you can't really be doing, especially as a sophomore.
Secondly, for these kind of roleplayer/defense types, one of the best indicators of NBA equity is having both a 2%Stl and 2%Blk. Usually those are the lower limits of what translates defensively to the NBA: Bey doesn't hit either of those, which are fairly low marks, in either year he played in college. Other players who fail to hit those marks this year include Nico Mannion and Jordan Nwora.
He's kind of a trap because in college he showed some creation abilities at times that, due to his limited handle and lack of shiftiness and speed, just isn't likely to translate, and he physically looks like a wing-stopper type which obviously has value in the NBA but he hasn't shown either the technique or the awareness to actually imply that level of ability at the next level.
I'd be sceptical about Saddiq Bey at #23, let alone #13.
Basketball.
I think Bey will settle as a quality 7th or 8th man for his 3rd or 4th team. Have an okay career. But he will give almost no value to the team who drafts him. You want role players, you get them in FA - where you can basically get 28-32 year old versions of Bey. More savvy and intelligent. You dont draft a guy who is eventually gonna be a Mo Harkless at 13. You just go get Mo Harkless now and use the pick on a guy who could be much better.
Feels like we have the 13th pick in an 11 man draft. I hope the FO sees it that way as well. There're really no reason, with the amount of future draft capital that we have at our disposal, to sit back and hope a guy falls to 13.
I think we trade up into the top 10 for one of Okongwu, Pat Williams, or Okoro. Their focus will be on defensive potential early in this draft, IMO. There's a ton of explosive offensive upside later in the first and early second that they can take a swing on, but all 3 of these guys I mention have a chance to be transcendent defensive talents. Get one of these guys early and then you can go get Terry, Anthony, Bolmaro, etc later.
In addition, I think these are guys who will preserve their trade value because of the raw athleticism and untapped offensive potential that each possesses, to go along with elite defensive potential. Future trade value should be more important than fit in our team building philosophy.
Depending on how you look at it we either have the 13th pick in a 0 man draft (there is zero traditional top talent), or we have the 13th pick in a 20 man draft (there are a lot of promising possible upside swings). Cup half empty or half full, your choice.
I'm always a glass half full guy but I can't say I'd be nearly as happy with Kira Lewis as I would be with Killian Hayes. I feel like that's the difference between 13 and 9 this year. Basically the difference between a projected starting caliber player and a projected high rotation 6th, 7th, 8th man.
Surely that depends on who is doing the predicting. I could easily see Kira starting on a bunch of teams on the league, and depending on the roster he was on, I could also see him actually being a good starter. Of course it's not guaranteed and my concerns about Kira are real (I was quite down on him for much of the year) but that's often the case even in the top 5 or 6 of even decent drafts.
I want either Bey or Aaron Nesmith
Predictions on players are like donuts,
They are good in the morning, then by lunch they are stale and thrown out. Then tomorrow new ones are made and the old one are forgotten about.
Exactly, that's why good teams draft using a randomiser that just picks a random guy.
And yet good organizations tend to have a higher hit rate at lower picks than bad franchises.
Skill is fine but you need to draft a guy with the right intangibles and then put him in specific situations where he can succeed and then slowly expand those situations. As opposed to just throwing a ton at a guy. And it sounds like we plan to go slow with whoever we pick this year, so now we just have to draft the right intangibles
The Athletic just dropped their latest mock, with Haliburton going at 4 - citing his "impeccable background" and "the best culture guy with top 10 talent."
Where have we heard this about Haliburton before
He is. Hands down. Again, that doesnt matter for every team but we need it DEPERATELY. I dream of a world in which somehow Lonzo and 13 are gone and Haliburton is here, but I dont see it happeningThe Athletic just dropped their latest mock, with Haliburton going at 4 - citing his "impeccable background" and "the best culture guy with top 10 talent."
Where have we heard this about Haliburton before
In fairness, his character is not something I've ever impugned. He may well be the best culture guy in the draft, although obviously I (and everyone else on the board, for that matter) lack the necessary universal, draft-wide knowledge to say that for sure. My issue has been with his projection into the NBA as a player. I would not hate picking him at #13, even if I had other preferences, but top 4? Bit rich for my blood.The Athletic just dropped their latest mock, with Haliburton going at 4 - citing his "impeccable background" and "the best culture guy with top 10 talent."
Where have we heard this about Haliburton before
I wouldnt take him top 4 if I were a bad team, likely to be bad or even mediocre for the next 3 years. He goes to a place like that and he fails IMO. But he goes to Golden State, or Phoenix, us, etc and I think he will have a very good to great career. He reminds me a bit of Andre Miller. On a bad team, he is kind of pointless, but you put him on a good team with athletes and guys who can finish plays and he is the leader and glue guy that brings it all together.
I think the issue is that if you're picking top 5, you almost always are a really bad team. So if we were picking 4th, there's no way I'd do it, because to be picking 4th we'd have to suck and means his entire time with us would be sub-optimal at best and downright awful at best.
Now, we aren't quite one of the worst teams in the league and we look to be a bit better next year, so that's why I wouldn't hate it at 13. But it all depends on who is there. If, somehow, Kira Lewis or Killian Hayes, for example, are still there then I have no interest, and if there's someone who I think has a plausible chance at much higher impact (even if that's further away, like Pokusevski) is still there, I'd prioritise them too. Haliburton, although a potentially great culture guy, feels like such a 'settle' choice at #13 when it comes to talent.
He is gonna go so much higher than 13, that i don't think you will have to worry about him being the pick there
Probably, but I try not to base my judgements and rankings on what I think other teams will do, since inevitably players rise or fall, and the types of bad teams that pick high are not famed for their impeccable judgement.
Why I like to think more about evaluation of a young kid to AFTER the draft? Or, at least part of it. Once you know what team a player is with, project likely and possible outcomes then
That is fair. I generally base my assessments on the assumption that players develop fairly well, but that is of course fairly optimistic and not always what happens. Sometimes players just go to teams that either use them really poorly, or use them correctly but lean on them too heavily early, or some other issue, which can stymie their progress. Of course the reverse happens too, where a player goes to a pitch-perfect situation and their acceleration is boosted.
Sign me ALL the way up for this. Not only do we get probably my third or fourth favorite guy in the draft, but we don't have to worry about Lonzo's contract, which is migraine-inducing in itself.
If we do end up staying at 13, I'd strongly prefer Poku. The guy just moves so well for that size. It jumps off the screen. We'll have all the chances to get solid role players with our arsenal of picks (via trade or draft) or using any number of cap exceptions in the future. Swing for the fences here because we really don't have all that much to lose if we strike out on this particular pick.
What are the odds the Pelicans stay at 13? Right now I'd say 50/50 they move up or move down. They've got the ammunition for it.
And I'd be 99.3% certain they exit this draft with less than the 4 picks they currently own.
So I'd put any player projected outside of the top 4 on the table.
I would say there is a less than 2% chance they trade up from 13 to some pick higher. Like, packaging 13 and other picks to move up.
But I would say there is a 40% chance they end up with a pick higher than 13 because of a Jrue trade.
As for picking less than 4 players, I wouldnt be so sure. Again, if they trade Jrue, they are likely adding at least one more pick in this draft. And second round picks are easier to stash than ever. You can sign them to two-way deals and stash them overseas much easier than years past and there are far more reputable leagues around the world.
Four guys on the opening day roster - almost no chance. Us drafting 4 (or more) guys in this draft -- I would put that at around 25-30 percent
Contributor
Is that 40% the same odds of there being a trade involving Jrue at all?
Jrue trade or not, I just can't see them adding 4 more rookies even if they stash half of them.
As far as a stash/developmental type players tho, I'd take a flyer on Jay Scrubb in the 2nd round. Probably one of the most, if not THE, most polished scorers in the draft, but a huge ? about everything else on the floor.
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