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Thread: 6th March - New Orleans Pelicans VS Miami Heat - 26-36

  1. #1

    Pelicans 6th March - New Orleans Pelicans VS Miami Heat - 26-36

    Coming off another loss, this time to Dallas, the Pelicans are in an awkward position. The playoffs are still in the cards, but it would require stealing a win here and there against good teams, and being almost flawless against bad teams. This is, of course, possible, but it's far from easy and if there's anything the Pelicans have proven this year, it's that you can't guarantee they're going to show up even when the win is there for the taking.

    That brings us into tonight.

    THIS GAME IS SCHEDULED TO TIP OFF AT 7PM CST; 1AM GMT

    Tonight we take on the Miami Heat, at home. The Heat are a weird team; they're 40-22, so unquestionably a solid team, but they're only 6-7 over their last 13 games, having picked up some good wins (Dallas, Milwaukee) but having also lost to a bunch of teams you'd expect a top 4 seed to beat (losses to Sacramento, Portland, Atlanta, Cleveland, Minnesota).

    This is partly because, putting it simply, the Heat are a pretty middling road team; they're 13-18 on the road this season, compared to a much more dominant 27-4 at home. And luckily, we're facing them at home. They're the road team. So far so good.

    So, what are the Heat good at? Well, they're 2nd in the NBA in 3pt%. Part of this is due to Tyler Herro shooting 40%, but he's still listed as out so he won't be involved in that. Instead, Duncan Robinson is shooting 44.6% on 8 3PAs a game, and that combines with Dragic up to 38% and Crowder shooting 42% on 7 3PAs per game in 11 games for the Heat to provide an offense that stretches defenses thin. That's going to be an issue for us, especially our tendency to desert the corner 3 on rotation. Its this shooting that drives their ORtg, 7th in the NBA.

    They also get to the line; 4th in FTAs, the Heat only shoot a mediocre 78% from the line (13th in the league) but the volume is worrying. Avoiding fouling should be something our guys have in mind (as it honestly always should be ).

    Aside from that they're fairly middling everywhere; they crack the top 10 in assists, barely, but they are 16th in REBs, 16th in TOVs, 13th in PFs, 21st in STLS, 23rd in BLKs, etc. Just all very middling; the key is that while they're not great at much, they aren't the worst at anything either. They are 12th in DRtg, so we also have to be aware that while they aren't the Bucks, the Heat are a team with capable defensive pieces.

    So that's the brief going into this game. Against a team this bad on the road, we're at home, our pride should be stung from those losses, this should be a win. Like I said up top, the playoffs still aren't completely out of bounds but if we lose tonight then this week will really have been a huge missed opportunity. Gotta go out and play like we want it.

    #WBD
    Tyrese Maxey/Isaac Okoro/Killian Tillie/Onyeka Okongwu/Devin Vassell endorser.

    Eye test people: analytics people watch more basketball than you do.

  2. #2
    Pistol Pete Would Be Proud!!
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  3. #3
    This is another game I had penciled in as a loss. I think most people would. So if we steal it...it makes up for that Ooooph Minny game.

    Interesting aside, since it was likely we would lose to the Heat, Mavs, and Lakers, we are only one game off track from when everyone thought we were playoff bound. We could lose tonight and to the Clippers next Sat, and still be golden. We will look like it is out of reach but the last 15 games is when the schedule really starts to differentiate itself from the other teams competing for that 8th spot. Even when we were so giddy a couple of weeks ago, we had most of these losses penciled in for that happy projection. We just have to take care of business against teams we should beat and not let that Wolves game happen, again. Steal a game tonight, next Sat, or towards the end against Philly and we are sitting even prettier.

  4. #4
    The last time the Heat faced the Bucks they built a wall against Giannis giving him a rough night... they might do a similar gameplan against Zion.... with the type of defense they play plus with the offense they have, this is looking like another L on our end...

  5. #5
    Pistol Pete Would Be Proud!! kinglio21093's Avatar
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    If we lose tonight, this would make making the playoffs near impossible in my eyes.

  6. #6
    The Franchise DarkHornet's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kinglio21093 View Post
    If we lose tonight, this would make making the playoffs near impossible in my eyes.
    I think that's fair. While not one I penciled in as a win, having dropped ALL of the last 3 means we need to pick up one we weren't counting on. I'm not closing the door on the post-season, but I've definitely moved over into the "nice if it happens" rather than expecting it to happen.

  7. #7
    The Franchise DarkHornet's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by msusousaphone View Post
    Interesting aside, since it was likely we would lose to the Heat, Mavs, and Lakers, we are only one game off track from when everyone thought we were playoff bound. We could lose tonight and to the Clippers next Sat, and still be golden. We will look like it is out of reach but the last 15 games is when the schedule really starts to differentiate itself from the other teams competing for that 8th spot. Even when we were so giddy a couple of weeks ago, we had most of these losses penciled in for that happy projection. We just have to take care of business against teams we should beat and not let that Wolves game happen, again. Steal a game tonight, next Sat, or towards the end against Philly and we are sitting even prettier.
    I wouldn't say golden. I don't think we can truly be eliminated until the last 5 games, but I also think that if we fall any further out than 5 games with only 20 to go, we'll run out of time. I still expect a big Memphis plunge, but I also didn't expect them to beat the Lakers last weekend.

  8. #8
    Before that Minny loss, we had gone a few months without a loss againsta worse team. I don't count the Spurs game because Zion coming in had us in disarray.....that TWolves game was demoralizing. I can totally get the dampened hopes.

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by PaKwAn View Post
    The last time the Heat faced the Bucks they built a wall against Giannis giving him a rough night... they might do a similar gameplan against Zion.... with the type of defense they play plus with the offense they have, this is looking like another L on our end...
    I'm interested to see how we fair against Miami's propensity for zone. Should be a good test of our passing.

  10. #10


    Last edited by Pelicanidae; 03-06-2020 at 02:41 PM.

  11. #11
    Jacob Goldstein, founder of PIPM, posted a tweet earlier where he was giving the PIPM of each Pelican since Zion's debut. So it's not a measure of the entire season, it's just the measure of their PIPM since January 22nd. Here's how it breaks down:

    Pelicans PIPM since Zion's debut
    1) Jrue Holiday: +3.13
    2) Lonzo Ball: +1.74
    3) Derrick Favors: +1.73
    4) Zion Williamson: +1.72
    5) Brandon Ingram: +0.23

    Nobody else on the team has had a positive PIPM in this time period. E'twaun Moore has been a team worst -2.02 PIPM, followed Jax and Redick tied at -1.25, and then Melli (-1.08) and Frank (-0.89) round out the bottom 5.

    This tracks fairly well with what I've seen via the eye test as well. Jrue's been really good for a while now, Lonzo's had a bunch of his absolute best games in the last 6 weeks or so, Favors has cooled off recently but had a ridiculous stretch of rebounding and defense for a while, Zion's been great offensively but has had defensive issues, and Ingram's been up and down with some really good games and some really bad ones, including some dreadful defense.

    And the bench has been bad

  12. #12
    The Heat have recently lost to every team we are competing against (sans SA) for the 8th spot. They owe us this!!!

    We can destroy them on the boards. That would be my emphasis.
    Last edited by msusousaphone; 03-06-2020 at 04:51 PM.

  13. #13
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    Heat have the bodies to trouble zion could be a rough game

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by Pelicanidae View Post
    Jacob Goldstein, founder of PIPM, posted a tweet earlier where he was giving the PIPM of each Pelican since Zion's debut. So it's not a measure of the entire season, it's just the measure of their PIPM since January 22nd. Here's how it breaks down:

    Pelicans PIPM since Zion's debut
    1) Jrue Holiday: +3.13
    2) Lonzo Ball: +1.74
    3) Derrick Favors: +1.73
    4) Zion Williamson: +1.72
    5) Brandon Ingram: +0.23

    Nobody else on the team has had a positive PIPM in this time period. E'twaun Moore has been a team worst -2.02 PIPM, followed Jax and Redick tied at -1.25, and then Melli (-1.08) and Frank (-0.89) round out the bottom 5.

    This tracks fairly well with what I've seen via the eye test as well. Jrue's been really good for a while now, Lonzo's had a bunch of his absolute best games in the last 6 weeks or so, Favors has cooled off recently but had a ridiculous stretch of rebounding and defense for a while, Zion's been great offensively but has had defensive issues, and Ingram's been up and down with some really good games and some really bad ones, including some dreadful defense.

    And the bench has been bad
    Etwaun is a ball stopper right now, and he's not nearly good enough to allow him to play ISO ball (unlike BI). Would like to see Frank get most of Moore's minutes from this point on. I think Frank actually has vastly improved in his penetrating and playmaking this season and he gives good effort on defense but seems to be signifcantly handicapped by being undersized. Think you would see his shooting improve with more consistent playing time.

    Lonzo has been absolutely on fire the last 2 games (14 - 21 from 3 for 66%) so will be fun to see if he can continue his hot shooting. As has been said previously, he needs to spend the offseason gaining strength and working on finishing inside. He's erasing all doubts for me that he is the future PG of this team (and could be part of a Big 3 with Zion and BI).

    We need Josh Hart and Melli to bounce back - they have had a rough couple of games. Will also be intersting to see if Kenrich gets any run. Can't afford for him the be the black hole he was on offense before going out with the injury so hopefully he's been getting up shots in the gym while rehabbing.

    Go Pels! Need a win!
    Last edited by pr1840; 03-06-2020 at 06:05 PM.

  15. #15
    Pistol Pete Would Be Proud!!
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    I guarantee we win this game.

    You heard right

    I guarantee we win this game.

  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by Pelicanidae View Post


    They'll probably retail for $300 minimum.

  17. #17
    RIP BDJ AUSSIE_PELICAN's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 13 - 3 View Post
    I guarantee we win this game.

    You heard right

    I guarantee we win this game.
    If they don't, you won't post for a month?

  18. #18
    As much as Lonzo's been hot recently, I'm never going to like his relatively early clock stepback 3s

  19. #19
    Doris Burke jokingly suggests that Duncan Robinson can't actually be called for an offensive foul against Zion, because he's not big enough to actually move Zion

  20. #20
    RIP BDJ AUSSIE_PELICAN's Avatar
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    Does this team know what a bounce pass is?

  21. #21
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    ingram makes me nervous when he has the ball lately. bad decisions and seems to have the jitters/fumbles.

  22. #22
    Zion gets an awesome reverse layup, no foul call despite obviously getting some contact

  23. #23
    Zion reads the double perfectly, passes out to Lonzo. Lonzo misses the shot, but clearly the right play

  24. #24
    We clearly need to stop forcing bad passes to Zion.

  25. #25
    RIP BDJ AUSSIE_PELICAN's Avatar
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    This half court offense is terrible.
    If they make the playoffs, expect this rubbish.

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