eh I disagree. It isn't named the "Surprise breakout award". Someone shouldn't be pinged because they improved as much as people expected them too. This seems to walk a line of ignoring all the hard work they put in to get there, like they just had to show up and it was bound to happen.
The point Pelicanidae made which seems to have been missed is that the award comparison is supposed to be based on season to season change, not small game windows. Just because someone showed glimpses of talent in a small window, should not discredit them when they rise to the level of performing at that level in each and every game (just about) the following season.
What you believed a player was capable of eventually should have zero to do with it. They still have to improve to get to that level of consistency and performance. Hence Most Improved.
Plenty of players in the running, I just don't believe you should disqualify him in your opinion because you saw the potential there all along. I don't think he's necessarily number 1 for the award, as mentioned graham's jump has been very large.