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Thread: NBA DRAFT 2020 DISCUSSION

  1. #976
    Quote Originally Posted by luckyman View Post
    I think a lot of non-professional scouts fall into the trap of having what I'd call "short-termitis" for prospects they already don't like, and "long-termitis" for the ones they do.

    Be consistent. This is all about what they project to be 3 - 5 years removed from college/overseas. Both physically and skill wise. Not copy/paste where they are now.
    I think that a lot of scouts, professional and non-professional, consistently show a bunch of really dodgy signs. The best guys aren't flawless, but they're usually aware of the flaws they tend to make and often will be upfront about them.

    Aside from the issue you describe (which is basically just a mix between moving the goal posts and special pleading), these are some pretty common ones:

    - Aestheticism: A lot of people, whether scouts or just people interested, tend to make the mistake of confusing their aesthetic preference for efficacy. It's fairly common to see people love mind-blowing handles, even if they don't produce much of an impact on the defender, or for people to love super deep shooting prospects even if they're not that good at it: they just enjoy the visual of people taking that shot.

    - Highlight Clip Syndrome: For me, it usually takes a good 5 games to get what I call a ''decent'' grasp of a prospect, and I usually try to wait until 8 or 9 before making strong judgements. Some people watch a 12 minute highlight clip on YouTube and consider themselves an expert: obviously this is more of a casual fan issue than a professional scout one.

    - Stubbornness: A lot of people come to views early in the draft process, or even pre-draft sometimes, and just refuse to change their mind as evidence mounts up. It's healthy and important to accept new information and change your mind. For example, early in the season I had Nico Mannion in the teens or even late lottery for a variety of reasons, but as the season wore on it became clear that his finishing problems were worse than I had thought and his shot didn't quite show up off the dribble how I liked. So I've dropped him into the mid 20s. Gotta be willing to change your mind.

    - Body Shape Judgments: So many people look at a player who looks good and make judgements from there, ignoring the game. You see people saying ''ah but he's 6'8, 220lbs, and a ball handler!'' and it's like yeah but is he any good at that ball handling or is he just on a team that's letting him do whatever?

    - Team considerations: Some teams in college make players look better at some things than they are, and other teams make them look worse. Kentucky tends to suppress almost everyone truly great, whereas FSU tends to make people look like better defenders than they are. Think: are you evaluating a prospect's abilities, or are you evaluating the prospect's individual performance within this singular team context?

    These are just some examples, there are more.
    Tyrese Maxey/Isaac Okoro/Killian Tillie/Onyeka Okongwu/Devin Vassell endorser.

    Eye test people: analytics people watch more basketball than you do.

  2. #977
    Quote Originally Posted by Pelicanidae View Post
    2023
    - Victor Wembanyama
    - Emoni Bates
    - Yannick Nsoza
    - Amari Bailey
    - Jalen Duren
    Just a little detail on Yannick Nzosa, since he's currently playing in the ACB (Oh hey that's the league Doncic played in pre-NBA, neat) at the age of 16.

    He's a Centre. He's 16, he currently weighs 180lbs, ish, at 7'0 tall.

    In 4 games so far, he's averaging 14.3pts, 6.2rbds, 1.8asts per 36. 3.3 steals and 4.9 blocks per 36.

    Currently has a block percentage of 15.9% and a steal percentage of 5.2%. His TS% is 93.7.

    16 years old, 180lbs, playing centre against grown men in the same league Doncic came out of. Promising!

  3. #978
    Quote Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara View Post
    So, Bane is unquestionably the better player and the lone reason Nesmith will be taken higher is because of the "hype"

    Well, yeah, when you set up the framework like this, then of course you take the better player at the lower pick. Impossible to debate when thats the setup



    I just cant get over Bane's wingspan... or lack thereof. He's like tyrannosaurus rex

  4. #979
    Quote Originally Posted by fullcourtpress View Post
    I just cant get over Bane's wingspan... or lack thereof. He's like tyrannosaurus rex
    Other NBA players with negative wingspans:

    - Yao Ming
    - JJ Redick
    - Kelly Olynyk
    - Tyler Herro

  5. #980
    Pistol Pete Would Be Proud!! Taker597's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pelicanidae View Post
    Other NBA players with negative wingspans:

    - Yao Ming
    - JJ Redick
    - Kelly Olynyk
    - Tyler Herro
    That's really just make it more valid to not waste a pick on him. On top of that, Bane is athleticism makes him borderline not a 1st round value for me. If we are at 13th-18th and the two prospects that we got is Nesmith and Bane. Nesmith every single day of the week. Your dislike for Nesmith is becoming irrational like he called your mother ugly or something.
    Last edited by Taker597; 10-22-2020 at 03:44 PM.

  6. #981
    Quote Originally Posted by Taker597 View Post
    That's really just make it more valid to not waste a pick on him. On top of that, Bane is athleticism makes him borderline not a 1st round value for me. If we are at 13th-18th and the two prospects that we got is Nesmith and Bane. Nesmith every single day of the week. Your dislike for Nesmith is becoming irrational like he called your mother ugly or something.
    It's not a huge dislike lol, I just think he's not worthy of the hype. If it was Josh Green that the board was constantly drooling over instead of Nesmith, If be talking about him instead.

    In any case, I'm not really sure how that list of good-to-very-good NBA players is a reason not to draft someone. There are other players with negative wingspans (some of whom were/are not good, sorry Svi Mikhailyuk) but the point of that list is that it shows that having a negative windspan is not, in itself, a deal breaker.

    For example, I would much rather draft someone with a negative wingspan but who knew what they were doing over an albatross who doesn't understand the game whatsoever. Hassan Whiteside has a wingspan that can blot out the sun and he's a liability anyway because he's a low effort, low IQ player. By comparison, someone like Jimmy Butler has a wingspan less than 0.5 inches larger than his height but is a tenacious defender because of his high awareness and effort.

  7. #982
    My personal tiers, based on what I would give up/use on them:

    Tier 1: Would give up 13 and two future protected 1sts

    K. Hayes, Okongwu, and Avdija

    Tier 2: 13 and a ton of 2nds or a future protected 1st

    Nobody

    Tier 3: Would use 13, but they wont be there

    Haliburton, Vassell, Wiseman, Edwards

    Tier 4:Would use 13 to draft

    Patrick Williams, Jalen Smith, Kira Lewis, Aaron Nesmith, Poku, RJ Hampton

    Tier 5: Would be interested in using late teens/20s pick if we move back or move up from 2nd round, add a pick in trade, etc

    Tyrell Terry, Leandro Bolmoro, Paul Reed, Tyrese Maxey, Josh Green, Zeke Nnaji

    Tier 6 - 2nd Round Targets to make contributions in next year or two

    Xavier Tillman, Payton Pritchard, Grant Riller, Devot Dotson, Malachi Flynn, Tyler Bey, Mamadi Diakite

    Tier 7 - 2nd round picks to stash and maybe get something out of in a few years. Flyers.

    Jahmi'us Ramsey, Yam Madar, Kenyon Martin, Jr. Paul Eboua, Josh Hall, Lamine Diane
    @mcnamara247

  8. #983
    There is nobody in this draft that I would give up 3 firsts for.

    Interested in your take on Ball, MM. You didn't list him there, so I'm assuming you don't value him particularly highly.

    Also, what's your view on Haliburton's probably role in the NBA?

    Big support for listing Lamine Diane, who is extremely fun.

  9. #984
    Quote Originally Posted by Pelicanidae View Post
    There is nobody in this draft that I would give up 3 firsts for.

    Interested in your take on Ball, MM. You didn't list him there, so I'm assuming you don't value him particularly highly.

    Also, what's your view on Haliburton's probably role in the NBA?

    Big support for listing Lamine Diane, who is extremely fun.
    I wouldnt take Ball at 13. I think he eventually has a decent career, but I think his first team will be massively, massively disappointed.

    Skill wise - awesome at some things. But I want my distributors to be hard workers, accountable, willing to sacrifice, dive on the floor, etc. LaMelo is not that. I wouldnt touch him. But I'd take a look when he is 25 or 26 after he has bounced around and been humbled.

    Haliburton is a guy who -- if he goes to the right place, he has a Mike Conley like career. Wrong place and he tries to do too much and is inefficient. And I think a team with Zion and Ingram is the right place. I think he would fit awesome with them long term. He wouldnt have to be the primary creator all the time, would have great finishers who run the court, and likely good spacers to hit when he gets teams to collapse.

    As for "three first rounders" -- I think if they are all lotto protected or even top 10 protected or even picks in this draft (say we trade Jrue and get 19 in the deal and so its 13, 19, and a future lotto protected 1st)..... those picks are worth giving up if you know a guy can be a core piece with Ingram and Zion. And I believe in those 3 guys and love their fit with Ingram and Zion.

    The whole point of getting picks in trades was to have the ability to trade a bunch of them for a core piece. And I believe those 3 guys would be. And where the Pelicans are picking this year and will be picking in future years -- history says you have a very small chance of landing a long term core piece. When you do, yes its awesome and catapaults your franchise forward. But for every Giannis and Bam, there are 12-15 guys who really dont do anything for the team who took them in the 11-30 range

  10. #985
    Quote Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara View Post
    I wouldnt take Ball at 13. I think he eventually has a decent career, but I think his first team will be massively, massively disappointed.

    Skill wise - awesome at some things. But I want my distributors to be hard workers, accountable, willing to sacrifice, dive on the floor, etc. LaMelo is not that. I wouldnt touch him. But I'd take a look when he is 25 or 26 after he has bounced around and been humbled.

    Haliburton is a guy who -- if he goes to the right place, he has a Mike Conley like career. Wrong place and he tries to do too much and is inefficient. And I think a team with Zion and Ingram is the right place. I think he would fit awesome with them long term. He wouldnt have to be the primary creator all the time, would have great finishers who run the court, and likely good spacers to hit when he gets teams to collapse.

    As for "three first rounders" -- I think if they are all lotto protected or even top 10 protected or even picks in this draft (say we trade Jrue and get 19 in the deal and so its 13, 19, and a future lotto protected 1st)..... those picks are worth giving up if you know a guy can be a core piece with Ingram and Zion. And I believe in those 3 guys and love their fit with Ingram and Zion.

    The whole point of getting picks in trades was to have the ability to trade a bunch of them for a core piece. And I believe those 3 guys would be. And where the Pelicans are picking this year and will be picking in future years -- history says you have a very small chance of landing a long term core piece. When you do, yes its awesome and catapaults your franchise forward. But for every Giannis and Bam, there are 12-15 guys who really dont do anything for the team who took them in the 11-30 range
    Yeah I'm not against trading 3 firsts just flat out and overall in any case. There are plenty of moves I would make where 3 picks got moved around: they just wouldn't be for anyone in this class.

    I'm extremely sceptical of Haliburton's potential as a primary at the NBA level in any practical sense. He has more than a little of the Lonzo Ball problems around him: sub-par handle, unimpressive finisher, very little wiggle off the dribble, can't seem to really beat anyone. He's a better shooting projection, but still.

    I largely agree about LaMelo. He's got some outstanding, outlier skills but I think he's far worse at the bad things than many commentators are willing to talk about.

  11. #986
    I think Haliburton could be like Brogdon - who cant blow by people. Isnt a pure one or a pure two. Not the best handle in the world. But he finds ways to score. He gets his teammates good shots. Can play on ball, has to be respected off ball.

    And Brogdon's efficiency is tied to who is on the court with him. When he has other guys who can bend and break the D and/or guys who demand multiple defenders when they roll, he is insanely efficient. When Indy got hurt and he had to do a lot more heavy lifting, he was way less efficient. I think Haliburton is very similar. People always bring up Lonzo because of height, some stat similarities, etc. I see more Brogdon.

  12. #987
    Brogdon was never insanely efficient even in Milwaukee, outside of his final season there. The first two were just okay, and then of course this year for various reasons he was downright poor overall. Even his at-rim finishing plummeted in efficacy, although as you say, there are reasons for that beyond just his own skillset.

    I suppose my view of a Haliburton draft would depend on who else was still on the board. I don't view him highly as a primary and I don't think he has much in the way of boom upside potential, so if there was someone there still that I did value more highly in either of those ways, I would rather take them. Not a horrible prospect by any means but 13 seems a bit of a reach, for me.

  13. #988
    Role players, even the top quasi all star ones, are their environment IMO. I think very few NBA players are good regardless, bad regardless. Very few are unable to transcend several different kinds of roles. I dont think thats a knock on Haliburton, or most guys for that matter. Draymond Green plays with great players and he is an All Star who gets a max contract or close. On a bad team, he was a guy who wouldnt be worth 8 mil a year

    Almost every guy in this draft will be dependent on the situation they end up in. If I were a Pistons fan, I wouldnt want Haliburton. As a Pels fan, I would happily take him
    Last edited by MichaelMcNamara; 10-22-2020 at 10:36 PM.

  14. #989
    I think that the right team for Haliburton already has a reliable primary initiator on it. The Pelicans do not have that right now.

    It's trivially true that roleplayers are often highly dependent on their circumstances, yes.

  15. #990
    I am building a team with the idea of who 2024-2029 Ingram and Zion will be. And if they arent creating a high percentage of the offense by then, none of this matters anyway.

    You dont draft 19 year olds to solve current problems. You project what you will need (and not need as much) in 3 or 4 years and draft the guys who help that. I want Ingram to be better shooting Jimmy Butler (with regard to his usage, his amount of time with the ball and without it). I want Zion to be Giannis-like or at the very least Blake Griffin when CP3 was off the court/gone. If you had those two guys, you wouldnt want a primary creator. You would want combo guards, shooters, etc.

    You have to project forward with Zion and Ingram when making this pick. Not solve current problems, because truth is that this guy will barely play at all this year

  16. #991
    Quote Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara View Post
    I am building a team with the idea of who 2024-2029 Ingram and Zion will be. And if they arent creating a high percentage of the offense by then, none of this matters anyway.

    You dont draft 19 year olds to solve current problems. You project what you will need (and not need as much) in 3 or 4 years and draft the guys who help that. I want Ingram to be better shooting Jimmy Butler (with regard to his usage, his amount of time with the ball and without it). I want Zion to be Giannis-like or at the very least Blake Griffin when CP3 was off the court/gone. If you had those two guys, you wouldnt want a primary creator. You would want combo guards, shooters, etc.

    You have to project forward with Zion and Ingram when making this pick. Not solve current problems, because truth is that this guy will barely play at all this year
    I'm not convinced Ingram is still on this team in 4+ years time. As far as I'm concerned, we are still in acquire talent mode, not ''start tailoring the roster'' mode. I project forward with Zion in mind, since he's the guy I'm absolutely convinced will still be here in 5, 6 years. Other than that, my projections are very fluid, and in circumstance I want to acquire the guys who I think are likely to either have the most value later down the road for trade purposes, or who are most likely to pan out and be the best players.

  17. #992
    Quote Originally Posted by Pelicanidae View Post
    Just a little detail on Yannick Nzosa, since he's currently playing in the ACB (Oh hey that's the league Doncic played in pre-NBA, neat) at the age of 16.

    He's a Centre. He's 16, he currently weighs 180lbs, ish, at 7'0 tall.

    In 4 games so far, he's averaging 14.3pts, 6.2rbds, 1.8asts per 36. 3.3 steals and 4.9 blocks per 36.

    Currently has a block percentage of 15.9% and a steal percentage of 5.2%. His TS% is 93.7.

    16 years old, 180lbs, playing centre against grown men in the same league Doncic came out of. Promising!
    THIS should be right around the time we can start "winning" the AD trade. Especially if Bron or AD pick up an injury or three in 2022.
    BIG DON'T PANIC PICTURE SPAMMING YOUR THREADS!!!!

  18. #993
    Quote Originally Posted by msusousaphone View Post
    THIS should be right around the time we can start "winning" the AD trade. Especially if Bron or AD pick up an injury or three in 2022.
    Yeah, there's a ton of very very high level prospects coming up over the next 3 years or so, Nzosa being one of them. Wembanyama is the best of them probably, but he's been getting a lot of hype over the last week, so he won't be a ''best kept secret'' for long lol

  19. #994
    Charter Member PELICANSFAN's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pelicanidae View Post
    I'm not convinced Ingram is still on this team in 4+ years time. As far as I'm concerned, we are still in acquire talent mode, not ''start tailoring the roster'' mode. I project forward with Zion in mind, since he's the guy I'm absolutely convinced will still be here in 5, 6 years. Other than that, my projections are very fluid, and in circumstance I want to acquire the guys who I think are likely to either have the most value later down the road for trade purposes, or who are most likely to pan out and be the best players.
    It's tough to project any player 4 years from now, but why specifically BI? He is getting ready to sign a max contract, so it would appear he is a building block for this team.

  20. #995
    Quote Originally Posted by PELICANSFAN View Post
    It's tough to project any player 4 years from now, but why specifically BI? He is getting ready to sign a max contract, so it would appear he is a building block for this team.
    I've seen Shamit argue before that Ingram feels like a Derozan type player, where he's very good but not quite on the level required to really be part of that championship core with his playstyle and usage, and ends up being used in a trade to acquire the guy who is.

    Obviously that could be wrong, which is why I didn't say that I *am* convinced that he will *not* be here, just that I'm not convinced entirely that he will be.

  21. #996
    Quote Originally Posted by PELICANSFAN View Post
    It's tough to project any player 4 years from now, but why specifically BI? He is getting ready to sign a max contract, so it would appear he is a building block for this team.
    BI could win this franchise 2 straight titles, and you know who would be like ..."we should trade him now he will never win a 3rd. And his at -the-rim % fell last year."

  22. #997
    Quote Originally Posted by Pelicanidae View Post
    I've seen Shamit argue before that Ingram feels like a Derozan type player, where he's very good but not quite on the level required to really be part of that championship core with his playstyle and usage, and ends up being used in a trade to acquire the guy who is.

    Obviously that could be wrong, which is why I didn't say that I *am* convinced that he will *not* be here, just that I'm not convinced entirely that he will be.
    Its funny how our current evaluations are often partly clouded by our past ones. Shamit often admits his tendency to do this with Ingram. We are all guilty of it. I will admit I still don't see Luka as the future of the league, largely because of my initial evaluation.

    But regardless of our opinions, Griff is head over heels for Ingram. He believes he is as much of a core pieceas Zion and can lead the league in scoring one day. And if you listen to SVG on Lowes pod, he feels pretty similar.

    Those two are the core and SVG will build the offense around them and they will be asked to create more and more each year

  23. #998
    Quote Originally Posted by luckyman View Post
    BI could win this franchise 2 straight titles, and you know who would be like ..."we should trade him now he will never win a 3rd. And his at -the-rim % fell last year."
    We were having a normal conversation where normal questions were being asked and normal explanations were being given. No need to come in being all silly about it.

  24. #999
    Pelicanidae, have you posted your big board for the 13 pick range for the Pelicans? If not, you mind sharing?

    Here is mine:

    1. Patrick Williams
    2. Poku
    3. Tyrell Terry
    4. Kira Lewis
    5. Aaron Nesmith
    6. Tyrese Maxley
    7. Grant Riller
    8. Precious
    9. Sadiq Bey
    10. Josh Green
    CAW CAW!!!

    -Founder and valuable member of the Caw Caw Boyz-

  25. #1000
    I think I posted a bunch of names I'd be okay with around that spot a while ago but it's probably time for an update. I'll do it when I get to a computer rather than a phone, since I tend to be very wordy lol

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