Robert Meachem looks for space to run in the 2009 match-up between the Saints and the Jets.
The New Orleans Saints will wrap up their battle with the AFC East when they travel to New York to face the Jets today. This is their third straight game against that division and after this game, they will have played all four of their AFC opponents within five weeks. The one notch in the loss column came courtesy of the New England Patriots, who lead the division. The Jets are a couple of games behind the Patriots as they enter Week 9 with a 4-4 record. The Saints lead the series between the two teams with a 6-5 advantage. They last played in 2009 when the Jets traveled to New Orleans and went home with a 24-10 loss in which the Saints scored two defensive touchdowns as part of a 24-10 victory.
The Saints shook a slow start at home against Buffalo last week to close out a win and now find themselves a half of a game behind Seattle for the top record in the NFC. Offensively, they have taken a very small step back from their production in recent years, ranking 6th in total offense with an average of 396 yards per game. The small drop in the ranks could be due to having to find other ways to move the ball and score with the lack of consistent production from the running game and the wide receivers. Nevertheless, this offense can put up points on just about anyone, but this will be one of their toughest tests yet.
The Jets come in to this week after being blown out by the Cincinnati Bengals a week ago. They were crushed by the score of 49-9. Aside from last week, they have done much better than anyone expected coming in to this season. After virtually doing nothing in free agency to help their sluggish offense, New York landed Geno Smith with their second round pick in April’s NFL Draft, then later that night they made a trade with our Saints that netted them Chris Ivory. We’ll get to Ivory’s production in the next preview, but the trade was a great deal for both teams. According to the Jets’ trend so far in 2013, they will come out victorious against the Saints today. Through the first first eight games of the season, their results have been: win, loss, win, loss, win, loss, win, loss. It’s a trend that we all surely hope the Saints can break, as a Jets win would be a huge upset.
Passing Offense
The Saints have relied heavily on their passing attack through their 6-1 start. Ironically, the game that they ran the ball the best, was the game they lost to New England. New Orleans is ranked 3rd in the NFL with an average of 310.7 yards per game. Drew Brees’ 2,290 yards passing are good enough for 4th in the NFL. Brees has been on fire lately with a 13/1 touchdown to interception ratio in his last four games. Last week against Buffalo, he threw five touchdown passes for the eighth time in his career, another NFL record. Kenny Stills was the star receiver, catching two deep touchdown passes. Stills’ three touchdown receptions for the season are second on the team behind Jimmy Graham’s eight. Graham himself added two touchdowns last week, despite playing with a partially torn plantar fascia in his foot.
The Jets are coming in to this week reeling after being absolutely torched by Andy Dalton and the Bengals last week. Brees wasn’t the only quarterback to throw five touchdowns in Week 8, as Dalton did just that against these New York Jets. For the season, New York ranks 15th in the NFL allowing 237.1 yards per game through the air. Although the 325 they gave up last week aren’t too bad in today’s NFL, it could have been worse. Dalton through four of his touchdowns and most of his yards in just the first half. As for pass rush, the Jets are tied for 5th in the NFL with 25 sacks this year. Defensive-end Muhammad Wilkerson leads the team with 7 of those on his own. New York runs a 3-4 defense that is very similar to the defense run by the Saints under Rob Ryan, brother of Jets head coach Rex. New York is tied for dead last in the NFL with only 3 INTs this season.
If the Saints attack the same way they’ve attacked defenses all year, they shouldn’t have too much trouble. The Jets are very beatable through the air. Their defensive front seven is very good, but no better than what New Orleans saw last week against Buffalo. Antonio Cromartie is the Jets’ top corner-back and there have been rumors swirling that they’ll try to use him to neutralize Jimmy Graham. The tight-end showed last week just how effective he can even when not at 100%, but having Cromartie cover him may not be a bad thing for the Saints’ offense and here’s why. The Jets have struggled against #2 receivers all season and that is because teams have attacked them with other weapons while Cromartie covers the top receiver. Rookie Dee Milliner is listed as the Jets’ other starting corner-back, but he has been benched more than once this year due to his struggles. Graham is by far the Saints’ best weapon to beat man coverage against Cromartie, due to his size. He’s a 6’2″ 210 pound corner who is very physical. From the Saints side, I’d love to see the Jets put him on Graham, because there is no doubt in my mind that #80 can win some plays while the Saints use their other weapons to beat the under-manned Jets’ coverage.
Rush Offense
It appears that the bye week was not the solution for the Saints’ woes in the running game. Although Pierre Thomas rushed for his biggest game of the season with 65 yards, the rest of the offense was only able to muster up 12 more. The Bills’ defensive front provided constant penetration, much like what we’ve seen throughout this year. For some reason, Darren Sproles was on the field for only 18 out of 70 offensive snaps last week and wasn’t given a carry on any of them. New Orleans remains deep in the bottom half of the league in rush offense at 25th with only 85.3 yards per game.
New York comes in to today on the complete opposite end of the spectrum. Their rushing defense is ranked 1st in the NFL, allowing only 77.9 yards per game. Young defensive ends Muhammad Wilkerson and Sheldon Richardson have provided great stoppage at the line, while middle linebackers David Harris and Demario Davis track down opposing running backs. Harris and Davis are the two leading tacklers for the Jets defense.
I’ll put it on the record, that if the Saints break 100 yards rushing as a team, I would be more shocked than if the Saints missed the playoffs. This match-up is that bad. I don’t see absolutely any way that the play of the New Orleans’ offensive line is good enough to open up numerous holes against New York’s front seven. They may be able to get a couple yards here and there, but as long as the Jets know the Saints are running the ball, it’s not going to work. Therefore, keep an eye out for what the Saints do in short yardage situations, particularly 3rd and short. They have struggled in that situation all year and that continued against the Bills last week. Also, if the Saints are holding on to a tight lead late in the game, much like against New England, I’ll be very interested (and nervous) to see just how Coach Sean Payton chooses to try and close the game out to avoid a disaster like the Patriots game.
Players to Watch
Drew Brees
It seems glaringly obvious that he’ll have to carry the offense with barely any support from the running game this year. He’s certainly capable, but as long as he plays the way he has in his last four games, the Saints will be very tough to beat. Look for Brees to try and exploit rookie Dee Milliner, as I’m sure he has closely studied why the corner-back has struggled so much in his first year.
Darren Sproles
This name is here completely from a receiving standpoint. Assuming Antonio Cromartie mans up on Jimmy Graham, the Saints will look for mis-matches in other places and Sproles could be one.
Marques Colston or Jimmy Graham
If I had to guess, I’d bet that Graham sees a lot of Cromartie. However, whichever of these two that doesn’t get the Jets’ top corner-back could be in for a big day. If indeed it’s Graham that sees the coverage, this would be a great spot for Colston to get out of his slump. If the Jets elect to keep Cromartie on the outside, Graham could have another monster day as long as he’s on the field.
Prediction
If the Saints offense gets out to a slow start, this game could be very similar to how the Patriots game went in the first half. Thankfully, Payton and Brees have acknowledged the fact that they’ve started slow and that it needs to be fixed. I’m sure it was a big topic in practice this week, so I expect a different look from the opening snap when the Saints take the field.
Saints – 27
Jets – 17
Who Dat?!
