The New Orleans Saints enter Week 11 of the 2012 NFL season with a winning streak for the first time all year and an opportunity to get to .500 with another victory over the struggling Oakland Raiders. Every game has, and will continue to be, a must win for the Saints, as they will likely need double digit wins in order to get into the playoffs as a Wild Card in the highly competitive NFC. Today, New Orleans faces a foe in Oakland that is still reeling from a 55-20 bludgeoning last week. In order to extend the winning streak to 3 games, New Orleans must exhibit an improved defense, both against the pass and the run.
No Darren McFadden means stopping the Raiders’ running attack just got 1000 times easier.
PASS DEFENSE
Oakland’s passing game has been potent all season long thanks to stability at quarterback, something that has been lacking with the organization ever since Rich Gannon retired after the 2004 season. Former Bengal quarterback and 1st overall pick Carson Palmer has guided this offense to possess the league’s 5th most productive passing attack, averaging 288.9 yards per game. Palmer’s presence makes the Raiders a team that has the ability to hang around in any game and will be able to move the ball on most defenses. WR Denarius Moore has established himself as Palmer’s top pass catching option, leading Oakland in reception yardage (575) and touchdowns (5) this season.
Not much more can be said/written about the Saints’ struggles against the pass this season. The defense simply cannot stop any halfway decent passing game, as they have allowed an average of 307.3 yards per game through the air (31st in the NFL). Opposing receivers often find soft coverages against the New Orleans secondary, and speedier receivers find little resistance getting past the team’s last line of defense.
Slowing the Raiders’ passing game, however, is still very much possible. In order to do so, the Saints’ defense must continue to provide a strong pass rush, something that has started to come around for the team over the past two weeks. Carson Palmer isn’t exactly mobile, so expect a wide variety of blitz packages in order to try to flush him out of the pocket. An interior pass rush from the defensive line will also be needed. DE Cameron Jordan has seen much of his playing time on passing downs come from the defensive tackle position – this should remain the case this afternoon.
Secondly, preventing the deep ball will be a huge key for success in stopping Oakland through the air. Speed is something that the Raiders’ receivers have in mass quantities, and they will look to exploit that on a secondary that often has trouble covering long passes. The secondary will be at an even bigger disadvantage this week, as rookie CB Corey White will be sidelined due to injury and is listed as out. CBs Johnny Patrick and Elbert Mack will have to step up as the nickel backs this week and perform well against a talented group of Oakland slot receivers in order for New Orleans to leave with the win.
RUN DEFENSE
Last week, something amazing happened. The Saints’ run defense was dominant. Atlanta RB Michael Turner produced this completely startling, and ultimately non-consequential stat-line: 13 carries, 15 yards, no touchdowns. The result? An unbalanced Falcon offensive game-plan for much of the second half, a half where Atlanta only scored 10 points. The defense, although flat out burned against the pass, played with a renewed sense of confidence and physicality. It might ultimately be a season changing moment for the entire unit.
This week, the task of stopping the run couldn’t have set up any better for the Saints. Oakland has averaged 76.7 yards per game on the ground this season, which ranks 31st league wide. This week, the Raiders will be without their two top backfield threats in Darren McFadden and Mike Goodson. This week’s probable backs for the Raiders? FB Marcel Reece (2012: 48 yards on 14 attempts, no touchdowns) and second-year RB Taiwan Jones (2012: 8 yards on 3 attempts, no touchdowns). Yikes. If the Saints‘ run defense cannot slow down this duo this afternoon, then there is truly no hope left.
To duplicate last week’s performance, the formula for New Orleans is relatively simple: control the line of scrimmage, maintain gap integrity, tackle properly.
Confidence is a huge factor in determining success in sports. After last week’s game, confidence among Saint defenders is not in short supply. A strong run defense should continue for a second straight week, forcing Oakland to become one-dimensional early on, and therefore substantially increasing the likelihood of a New Orleans victory.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
DEs Cameron Jordan and Will Smith
Maintaining a pass rush has been the key for any success that the Saints’ pass defense has achieved this season. Getting that rush from the team’s base defensive line setup will be especially important this week, as edge rusher Junior Galette is expected to miss this afternoon’s contest. That means more of the load will be placed on the shoulders of DEs Smith and Jordan, who will look to harass Palmer on early downs. Jordan has improved dramatically this season, and opposing teams are starting to take notice. If this duo can get after Palmer throughout the game, slowing down Oakland’s passing attack will be more of a likelihood.
LB Jonathan Vilma
Saints’ interim HC Joe Vitt hinted this week that Vilma will see more playing time this week against the Raiders. Getting Vilma involved in the defense will be huge for the Saints, especially if they plan on making a run towards a Wild Card spot. Rotating in Vilma on 3rd downs will prove to be particularly valuable for the defense, as he serves as the unit’s coverage adjuster at the snap, allowing for the defense to shift depending upon the opposition’s offensive setup. The Raiders offer Vilma a good opportunity to get back involved in that aspect of his game, one that will surely be needed for the remainder of the season.
CB Johnny Patrick
With the aforementioned Corey White out this afternoon, the nickel cornerback role will most likely fall to Johnny Patrick, a player expected to contribute largely this season, but has failed to reach expectations. Nonetheless, Patrick can make a name for himself this week, as he will see more playing time than usual. Expect Raiders’ QB Carson Palmer to seek out Patrick on multiple receiver sets. If Patrick can hold his own today and not become a defensive liability for the Saints, then mission accomplished.
PREDICTION
The Saints look like a team on a mission. After two straight victories, they have the chance to reach the .500 mark on the season, a feat that seemed quite daunting after the disastrous 0-4 start to begin the year. Offensively, New Orleans has rediscovered the value of a strong running game. Defensively, there are still holes, but the unit is improving on a weekly basis.
Oakland enters this week with a 3-6 record after getting shellacked by 35 points against Baltimore on the road. New Orleans has everything to play for this week, and should play with that same focus for the rest of the season. Another strong outing from Drew Brees and the offense will set the tone early, and New Orleans should be able to improve to 5-5, setting up a huge game next week against San Francisco in the Dome.
Saints 38, Raiders 21
