The New Orleans Saints will play for a spot in the NFC Championship Game this week, as they face the second-seeded San Francisco 49ers in a divisional playoff showdown. If the Saints are able to pull out the victory, it will be the second conference championship game appearance in three seasons. In order to reach that point, New Orleans will have to score points against a stingy San Francisco defense that only surrendered an average of 14.3 points per game this year.
Pass Offense
The Saints have enjoyed the best statistical season passing the football in NFL history. What else needs to be said? Drew Brees has played at a MVP level for pretty much the entire season. The receivers can beat you in a ton of different ways, and no one complains over the amount of passes thrown in their direction. The running backs catch balls through screens or short dump-offs, further complicating matters for opposing defenses. The offensive line is playing at a high level. Overall, the entire unit is operating at a level unlike any other time that anyone can remember.
Surprisingly, San Francisco has been a very average team in defending the pass, allowing an average of 230.9 yards per game in 2011 (16th in the NFL). Although the 49ers allow a decent amount of passing yardage, they are tied for second league wide in interceptions (23) and tied for seventh in sacks (42). That deadly combination (getting to the quarterback and creating turnovers) is one of the main reasons San Francisco won 13 games this season.
Even with the elite rush, the 49ers will have a tough time in trying to stop Brees and the Saints passing game. Look for the Saints to implement a variety of multi-receiver sets in order to gain an edge. I don’t anticipate the field/weather conditions to be an issue; it actually looks like it will be a pretty pleasant afternoon by the bay. If the Saints can spread out the 49er secondary early on, the advantage definitely goes to New Orleans.
Run Offense
Although New Orleans is better known for the high-flying, pass laden offensive attack, the Saints can be a power running team when they want to. The Saints actually had more rushing yards this season than San Francisco (2127 to 2044) and a better per carry average (4.9 to 4.1). The rotation of Pierre Thomas, Darren Sproles, and Chris Ivory has worked beautifully, as each back brings something different to the offense. Establishing a legitimate running game will be even more important this week against an elite San Francisco defense; this keep the rush off of Brees, giving him more time in the pocket.
The calling card of the San Francisco 49er defense has been the ability to stop the run. They only allow an eye-popping 77.2 yards per game on the ground and 3.5 yards per carry. Much of the success can be attributed to the middle linebacker combo of Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman, who combined for 240 tackles this season. Their ability to locate the ball-carrier and bring him down quickly and cleanly presents huge problems for opposing offenses.
The Saints are going to have a very difficult time trying to establish a running game. Look for New Orleans to try to mix it up with all three backs in different formation settings. I expect the draw and outside running games to be utilized if an interior running game can’t get going. Even if the Saints can’t get the run going as well as they would like, Sean Payton still needs to commit. Having Brees pass for 50+ passes in this one spells disaster, as the 49er defense will focus on blitzing Brees on every opportunity.
Matchup(s) to Watch
TE Jimmy Graham and RB Darren Sproles vs. LBs Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman. The Saints have often looked towards TE Jimmy Graham as a means of creating a mismatch in the passing game. This week will be difficult for Graham to get open, as the Niners defense features two of the fastest linebackers in the NFL in Willis and Bowman. Look for San Fransisco to cover Graham as well as the receiving threat of Sproles with their two talented middle linebackers. This matchup will be especially important on 3rd down passing situations, where Brees likes to go to the tight end or the safety valve (Sproles).
LT Jermon Bushrod vs. DE Justin Smith. Smith is coming off of arguably his best season of his career, and maybe the 49ers most underrated defender. Jermon Bushrod will have not only a tough task in slowing Smith in passing situations, but also when New Orleans tries to establish the run. If Bushrod can stop Smith from being a distruptive force, the Saints will have a much easier time trying to score points.
WR Marques Colston vs. CB Carlos Rogers. Colston will be a top target for Brees in this one. With the likely possibility of pressure coming at him, Brees will need to get rid of the ball quickly. He will look to his most consistent target in Colston. The task of getting open, however, is difficult in nature thanks to Carlos Rogers, who is enjoying a bounce-back season after leaving Washington. A larger Colston will need to win the majority of man-to-man matchups with Rogers in order for the Saints to come out on top.
