Now that the 2011 NFL Draft is less than a month away, it’s time to take a closer look at some of the Saints’ biggest offseason needs and some possible strategies for making these necessary upgrades. For right now, and until the labor situation is resolved, this discussion will assume that old free agency rules remain intact.
Let’s start with the good. The Saints are a solid football team that is currently in position to compete for a second championship. There are probably only a handful of teams around the league that can say that. Because of this, we are talking about upgrades, not wholesale changes within any position group. It’s not unreasonable to say that the Saints are a couple of minor tweaks away from being back in top form.
This, however, brings us to the uncertain. The Saints have far more unresolved contract situations than any team in the NFC South, with over 20 expiring contracts. This includes several key contributors such as Roman Harper, Carl Nicks, and Darren Sharper, among several others.
The first area that needs to be addressed this offseason is the offensive line. At first glance, this seems like an area of strength, and that is because it is. But in the NFL, an area of strength can quickly become an area of weakness.
Imagine the Saints, who already struggled on the ground last season, without Carl Nicks and a quality left tackle. The Saints have one of the best guard tandems in the NFL in Nicks and Jahri Evans, whom they signed to a lucrative extension during their Super Bowl run in 2009, and it is imperative to keep this duo intact in order to try to avoid the problems the Saints running game encountered in 2010.
The left tackle situation is a bit trickier. They have an expiring contract in Jermon Bushrod, who struggled in 2010. Bushrod filled in admirably for Jammal Brown in 2009, but when the injuries at RB made the Saints a one-dimensional passing team in 2010, Bushrod was exposed as the weak link. Constant pressure on Drew Brees resulted in a career high 22 interceptions (we all remember Brees’ underhand shovel pass along the sideline to Atlanta’s Thomas DeCoud while being chased from his blindside in the week 3 loss).
The Saints may want to pick up an LT in the second or third round of the draft, extend Bushrod a year, and give the young LT a year to develop before hopefully moving into a full time starting role. It would also be wise for the Saints to at least kick around the idea of taking one of the three massive OTs–Colorado’s Nate Solder, Boston College’s Anthony Castonzo, and Wisconsin’s Gabe Carimi–with their first round pick.
After the offensive line, the focus shifts to the defense. The Saints finished 7th in scoring defense, but a deeper examination of team defense statistics shows an alarming trend. The Saints have–and this is no secret–an excellent secondary on a defense that finished 4th in the NFL in pass yds/gm (credit goes to the pass rushers as well). Malcolm Jenkins’ move to safety is turning out to be a genius tactic, and hopefully the development of Patrick Robinson will have the Saints defensive backfield in great shape for years to come.
The run defense is where things take a turn for the worse. The Saints finished 16th in the NFL in rush yds/gm. This is still in the top half, but too low for a team that could be contending for the Super Bowl. A bad run defense makes it essentially impossible to come back in a game after getting down early, which became unfortunately obvious in the playoff loss to the Seahawks.
There are two major areas which require upgrades on this defense, and a third that would be a nice luxury. The former are outside linebacker and defensive tackle. The latter is a pass rushing defensive end to team with Will Smith. The Saints struggled to replace Scott Fujita in 2010. The caveat here is that Jonathan Casillas showed flashes in the preseason of 2010 before suffering a season-ending knee injury, so Casillas could be an interesting option moving into 2011, but bolstering this group is essential when considering Scott Shanle as an expiring contract this offseason.
In terms of DT, the Shaun Rogers signing is an interesting move but the Saints shouldn’t be looking at this as anything more than a one-year bridge to Sedrick Ellis’s eventual partner on the interior of the defensive line. If they get more out of Rogers, then that’s great, but realistically, the team cannot hedge its bets on a 32-year-old DT whose best statistical season came in 2008 and registered only 17 total tackles in 2010.
Another intriguing piece of the Saints offseason puzzle is the seemingly endless supply of NFL-ready pass rushers in the upcoming draft. Von Miller won’t be there at No. 24 in the first round, but if Iowa’s Adrian Clayborn or Wisconsin’s J.J. Watt is there, it’s going to be tough for Mickey Loomis and Sean Payton to pass on them (in his latest mock draft, ESPN’s Todd McShay has the Saints taking Clayborn with the 24th overall pick). This would be a significant upgrade over Alex Brown and will only help an already good secondary, not to mention high grades versus the run.
Clayborn is only rated the 7th best DE in the draft, but those ahead of him are smaller and are better fits for a 3-4 defense, while the larger Clayborn would fit nicely into the Saints 4-3 base defense. Watt is rated the 3rd best DE. There is still a lot of time until the draft, but this could be worth keeping an eye on, despite DE perhaps not being the Saints biggest area of need.
The Saints will compete in 2011, but securing help for Drew Brees on the O-Line and upgrading the run defense via the interior D-Line and linebackers are essential pieces of the puzzle that will hopefully lead the Saints to Super Bowl XLVI in Indianapolis.
