Originally Posted by
Pelicanidae
Yeah, the thing that MM seems to have missed here is that I do not, nor does any competent draft person, try to say that I have the ultimate definitive reading on 30+ players every year. You watch games, sample sizes that might end up being as many as 50 games or more, and you try to construct a range of potential outcomes based on the evidence you have (always being aware that there is a limitation there) and, using examples of past players and your own subjective judgement, you try to come up with a good estimate of whereabouts a player is likely to fall in those outcomes. There are some predictions which are pretty firm, if the indicators are strong and there's a surplus of evidence, and there are some predictions which are very loose, but I don't thing that I can tell you precisely what a player definitely will be or anything. I can just tell you what I think seems likely.
And also, I think it's quite telling that MM's summary of draft scouting is ''some AAU games and a handful of college games''. In many cases it's more like AAU, FIBA, shoe circuits, and then most or all of their college play; it's not like anyone said Zion, for example, was the number 1 pick off the back of 4 college games and a highlight reel. Sorry, but it's a bit more involved than that.