Dude you do the exact same thing, you just do it to validate your points such as to keep this draft pick because he will be this or that before his career starts etc.Originally Posted by da ThRONe
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Dude you do the exact same thing, you just do it to validate your points such as to keep this draft pick because he will be this or that before his career starts etc.
I get your point, and it's splitting hairs tbh, and it was a rarity. Usually your draft classes will have between 4-5 AS's (looking at draft classes since 93'), with outliers being those with 9 (such as 96') and 1 (2011).
I think this draft class is special and will net more than 3 AS's (heck look at some of the 1 and 2 time AS's), but perennials (which is what you were interpreting) I believe you are right with your assumption of 3.
If you Jimmer it, they will come.
I think 2013 was exceptionally terrible, and by comparison, this one looks better than it actually is.
I think the 2012 draft will have better high end players and 2011 will have more depth when it is all said and done. I think this draft will compare to a poor mans version of the 2010 draft - Wiggins will be 85% of P. George. Embiid won't quite be what Cousins is, and Exum will be 80% of Wall. Hayward and Parker will have comparable careers, and then some good but not great players like Monroe and Favors. One or two non lotto guys will be fringe ALL-Stars like Eric Bledsoe and Lance Stephenson.
Thats my educated guess from looking at this class. 90% of what the 2010 draft gave us.
@mcnamara247
Making projections to someones career before it's started and dismissing a players who's already had success isn't the same. My problem isn't with MM having a differing opinion it's that if I do something like it people would be having a fit. If I said Davis would have 60% of his production on a better team people would be losing their mind.
Last edited by da ThRONe; 06-12-2014 at 04:47 PM.
Isn't making projections on someone's career before it's started the whole premise of this thread ?
"I don't know if people know — I dislocated my pinkie finger. And [Tyreke] told me, 'You wanna go home or you wanna be here?' I want to be here. And he said, 'All right, then go tape it up and let's play. Let's go. We not stoppin' at no stores. Straight gas. That's what we do, just keep going.'"
http://thebasketbawlblog.com/
I am 115% certain that 3.5% of these threads are built on fact, while the other 96.5% is based off of opinion. And while we are casually throwing around made up percentages, I will go and say that the players in this draft will all have careers 93.75% as good as Michael Jordan's.
I love made up numbers!
Indeed it is sir.
Again I guess maybe I'm being extra defensives today. But there is no way I would get away with reducing Davis' success the same way MM just did to Leonard. With nothing but his eye test opinion to back it.
Either way no use in derailing this thread to make a selfish point.
You're damn right you wouldn't get away with that; I'm pretty sure people have notifications on when you mention Davis. I also think MM picked guys he thinks are system guys versus guys he'd think would be stars no matter where he plays. I think that's the disconnect here
Has their been any update on EMbiid's injury?
Exactly. I said in December of 2011, before we even came close to drafting AD that he would be one of the top 15 players of All-Time. It is not a biased thing. It was as clear as day the first 3 times I saw him. Barring injury, he will be an all-time great.
Shaq fits in that category, Duncan did, etc. Those guys could go to any team and be studs.
My belief is that 90% of the guys drafted, if not more, have a much wider range. Can range anywhere from bench warmer to quality starter. Where they end up depends on how much the team that drafts dedicates to developing them. I don't think it is any coincidence that the guys we tend to point to as steals in the draft usually come from a handful of organizations - usually organizations with stability and/or Superstars (so they don't have to do much).
Look at that 2011 draft - the busts come from the organizations with no stability or superstar. Meanwhile, it is littered with quality players from picks 15-30 that weren't necessarily more talented on the day they were drafted. They just went to the right place.
There is a 95% chance that Leonard turns into the player he is now (maybe even better) if he goes to the Wizards or Timberwolves or whatever team that we are imagining sending him to. Why are we throwing around %'s like this is quantifiable?
Speaking of which, here we go with Leonard.
It is just my opinion. Not a fact, will never be provable.
I think about it as - If I were a GM, would I focus more on scouting or development? For me, the answer is development.
I dont think you find gems as much as you polish them yourself. Unproveable, I know. But its my opinion.
Interesting comment related to draft talk-
Sam Amico @SamAmicoFSO · 8m
Three years ago, Gregg Popovich told me something about Spurs that's always stuck: "We draft guys who have gotten over themselves."
I think that what makes this draft class special you really don't have the divas and at the top of the draft. Guys are humble in some of their cases maybe a little too humble.
Of the elite guys coming out the past few years, who was thought to be a diva? Maybe Wall and Cousins? OJ Mayo before that.
Think it is more normal than media might have us believe.
Scariest thing that could happen to the NBA isn't Melo going to the Heat, it's the Spurs landing a pick somewhere within the first 12 picks.
Can't forget about Shabazz.... Although that's not exactly elite
But Pop's drafting in the 20's usually, so he's got space to work with "Is player A a diva?" because there's no "surefire" media pick after maybe 5.
I think Dell can find similar guys. The difference is that the Pelicans lack the elite guys who have played together for years who make it easy for those guys.
The Spurs have always been good, but they havent always played like THIS.
Go watch the 2005 Finals - not exactly beautiful basketball. It takes time. But that is the boring answer. Nobody wants to hear that Tyreke, Jrue, and AD just need time together. They want to hear about the next trade or next FA signing that will get this guy or that guy. But honestly, it is just going to be about those top guys playing together. Dell has proven he can find D- guys and we can develop them into C+ guys.
It is just about cultivating the culture and that is done with the guys at the top.
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