Draft Tiers

[da ThRONe]

This is for all those who still think this draft isn't viewed as strongly as it was at the start of the process.

Last year, we didn't have any player in this category. This category is usually reserved for guys who are sure-fire All-Stars or "franchise" players. Since 2009, only Griffin, John Wall and Davis have been ranked in this slot. This year, there are three players in Tier 1 -- as many as there have been in the last five years combined. All of them received Tier 1 votes from every GM, exec and scout I surveyed. So if there is any consensus out there, it's that there are three really great prizes in this year's draft.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft...rospects-tiers

[NOLa.]

Deep class for sure, these players coming in are very talented and the potential that was there before the season began was even greater. Next season doesn't look so bad either with the new frosh.

[UNO Gracias]

Yet teams still want to sell/ trade away lottery picks.

[Tomdda]

That's doesn't appear to be arguable, so I won't try. But it doesn't necessarily follow that the 10th pick in this draft will have a better career than (or will be rated higher than) the 10th pick in last year's draft. They might be better (or rated higher), but I wouldn't want to live on the difference.

[JJackisangry]

I see this class as one that will be great down the line. I don't expect them to wow people in their first couple of seasons, but I see some talent and potential in this class for sure.

[da ThRONe]

Yet teams still want to sell/ trade away lottery picks.

We don't know if any of that is true. It's speculation like there's rumors around this time of year every year. People need something to talk about. Until I see teams trading the picks it's white noise.

[MichaelMcNamara]

Why is it surprising that in a three man draft that teams drafting between 6 and 14 are open to moving picks?

[UNO Gracias]

It's par for the course that these lotto picks are on the trade block. Go look back over the last decade, there are at least 2-3 trades in the lottery.

[BallSoHard]

It's strong up top but there aren't any sure fire guys in that too tier. Wiggins Parker and Embiid all have large looming question marks .

[UNO Gracias]

It's strong up top but there aren't any sure fire guys in that too tier. Wiggins Parker and Embiid all have large looming question marks .

But according to these NBA gm's those question marks aren't enough to remove them from that tier 1.

I am wondering who this years Danny Granger, Kawhi Leonard, Rajon Rondo, David West will be. Every year there is that one guy who slips through the cracks and gets into the right system, and becomes a cornerstone of the franchise for years.

[PELICANSFAN]

Why is it surprising that in a three man draft that teams drafting between 6 and 14 are open to moving picks?

I think there are always teams looking to move picks. It depends on where they stand with their current roster makeup and future plans. Not sure that it is fair to say it is only a 3 man draft though. If you expect to only get a franchise player, it is a 3 man draft. However, based on Ford's analysis, there are 9 all star type players. I would think teams would be happy with that.

[MichaelMcNamara]

I still dont believe as many guys slip through the cracks as fall into the right situation.

Rondo, for example, was terrible his first season but had so many great players around him and didnt have to do as much if say he was a starting PG on a bad team.

If Leonard gets drafted by the Wizards over Veseley, I dont think he is 60% the player either.

I think trying to project now is foolish for a lot of the guys who arent top tier. Show me who drafts them, and I will tell you the guys most likely to blossom

[UNO Gracias]

9 AS in 1 draft...that would make this draft class better than the 2003, 1999 classes, and on par with the 96 class.

[da ThRONe]

I think there are always teams looking to move picks. It depends on where they stand with their current roster makeup and future plans. Not sure that it is fair to say it is only a 3 man draft though. If you expect to only get a franchise player, it is a 3 man draft. However, based on Ford's analysis, there are 9 all star type players. I would think teams would be happy with that.

And there's always the diamond in the roughs like Paul George, Step Curry, Serge Ibaka, or Kawhi Leonard so you never know.

I can understand the Lakers or Celtics teams with a history of getting their "man" in free agency. However I think most teams would be foolish to walk away from this draft. The Kings have been rumored as one of those teams trying to sell. I've seen mock drafts were they select Marcus Smart. I think the Kings would be thrilled if they walked away from this draft with Smart.

[MichaelMcNamara]

I think there are always teams looking to move picks. It depends on where they stand with their current roster makeup and future plans. Not sure that it is fair to say it is only a 3 man draft though. If you expect to only get a franchise player, it is a 3 man draft. However, based on Ford's analysis, there are 9 all star type players. I would think teams would be happy with that.

Even in the best drafts, there arent 9 All-Star type players. If ever single thing goes their way, yeah, I am sure 9 guys could be really good. Samaki Walker could have been great if everything broke his way.

In a re-draft of the supposedly star studded 2003 draft - the best since '84, Nick Collison went 10th. After everything we know, with years to look back on, he would be the guy who went 10th.

Right now is the time for everyone to get excited and talk the potential of these guys, but most classes are similar. One franchise guy on average. 2-3 more perennial All-Stars and 4-5 good starters. 5-8 solid starters, and then a bunch of fringe starters and role players. Occassionally you have a terrible one (2000), but you dont ever have ones that are 9 deep with All-Stars.

[da ThRONe]

9 AS in 1 draft...that would make this draft class better than the 2003, 1999 classes, and on par with the 96 class.

Again that's why this class was so highly touted. IMO this could be one of if not the best draft class to date when you consider top end talent with depth.

[UNO Gracias]

I still dont believe as many guys slip through the cracks as fall into the right situation.

Rondo, for example, was terrible his first season but had so many great players around him and didnt have to do as much if say he was a starting PG on a bad team.

If Leonard gets drafted by the Wizards over Veseley, I dont think he is 60% the player either.

I think trying to project now is foolish for a lot of the guys who arent top tier. Show me who drafts them, and I will tell you the guys most likely to blossom

To counter that point, a flower can grow out of a pile of crap. Rondo was a young pg playing surrounded by PP and nothing his first few years. For all we know the light would have come on regardless who he played with. He always had his defense, and his stats were trending upwards. I think we will see how good he is next year when he is playing around next to nothing (talent wise) but I think for now he has garnered the benefit of the doubt regarding talent vs situation.

Who is to say with Leonard. A sf of his nature is what the Wizards thought they were getting when they drafted Porter last year. Porter has grown exponentially from when he came into the league to now, but who is to say he wouldn't have grown more having to shoulder more load than he has now.

I agree that the right situation will give the player a chance to grow as less pressure is placed on them, but some players have "it" some scouts just don't recognize it.

[UNO Gracias]

Even in the best drafts, there arent 9 All-Star type players. If ever single thing goes their way, yeah, I am sure 9 guys could be really good. Samaki Walker could have been great if everything broke his way.

In a re-draft of the supposedly star studded 2003 draft - the best since '84, Nick Collison went 10th. After everything we know, with years to look back on, he would be the guy who went 10th.

Right now is the time for everyone to get excited and talk the potential of these guys, but most classes are similar. One franchise guy on average. 2-3 more perennial All-Stars and 4-5 good starters. 5-8 solid starters, and then a bunch of fringe starters and role players. Occassionally you have a terrible one (2000), but you dont ever have ones that are 9 deep with All-Stars.

But you have some with 11 (exception, not rule).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1996_NBA_draft

Hard to believe with all the guys who did make AS games in that class Camby didn't.

[da ThRONe]

I still dont believe as many guys slip through the cracks as fall into the right situation.

Rondo, for example, was terrible his first season but had so many great players around him and didnt have to do as much if say he was a starting PG on a bad team.

If Leonard gets drafted by the Wizards over Veseley, I dont think he is 60% the player either.

I think trying to project now is foolish for a lot of the guys who arent top tier. Show me who drafts them, and I will tell you the guys most likely to blossom

So let me guess Tim Duncan is 60% of what he was if he goes somewhere else. And Allen Iverson is 60% of what he was if he goes somewhere else. And Pippen is the best player in the game if he goes anywhere besides the Bulls. And J.R. Smith surpasses Kobe Bryant if he was drafted by the Spurs. Man pulling stuff out of thin air is so much fun!

[da ThRONe]

But you have some with 11 (exception, not rule).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1996_NBA_draft

Hard to believe with all the guys who did make AS games in that class Camby didn't.

Not sure if Big Ben counts since he was undrafted, but excellent point none the less.

[Kurgan]

I'm no gm but i still don't like so much any of those top 3 guys. Maybe they'll all become hall of famers, but right now i don't see a single 1st option type of player among those.

So let me guess Tim Duncan is 60% of what he was if he goes somewhere else. And Allen Iverson is 60% of what he was if he goes somewhere else. And Pippen is the best player in the game if he goes anywhere besides the Bulls. And J.R. Smith surpasses Kobe Bryant if he was drafted by the Spurs. Man pulling stuff out of thin air is so much fun!

{edited - inappropriate comment}

[da ThRONe]

I'm no gm but i still don't like so much any of those top 3 guys. Maybe they'll all become hall of famers, but right now i don't see a single 1st option type of player among those.

{edited - inappropriate comment}

Maybe who knows?

I know one thing I make a comment like that everybody would break their fingers with something to say. So maybe thing period the is contagious?

[MichaelMcNamara]

So let me guess Tim Duncan is 60% of what he was if he goes somewhere else. And Allen Iverson is 60% of what he was if he goes somewhere else. And Pippen is the best player in the game if he goes anywhere besides the Bulls. And J.R. Smith surpasses Kobe Bryant if he was drafted by the Spurs. Man pulling stuff out of thin air is so much fun!

No, the can't miss guys will be fine wherever they are, give or take 5-10%. If Duncan goes to NJ, I don't believe he is a 5-time champ though.

But somebody like Pippen? Yes, playing with MJ and Phil made his career far different than if he was drafted by Milwaukee IMO.

ANd I did say "I believe." Didn't say "It is a fact."

My belief is that it is more about talent development than talent evaluation when you get past the can't miss guys. I look at a guy like Noah Vonleh and I feel comfortable that the second I know where he is drafted that I will be able to predict how his career plays out with 80-90% accuracy. As of right now, I have no clue.

[PELICANSFAN]

Even in the best drafts, there arent 9 All-Star type players. If ever single thing goes their way, yeah, I am sure 9 guys could be really good. Samaki Walker could have been great if everything broke his way.

In a re-draft of the supposedly star studded 2003 draft - the best since '84, Nick Collison went 10th. After everything we know, with years to look back on, he would be the guy who went 10th.

Right now is the time for everyone to get excited and talk the potential of these guys, but most classes are similar. One franchise guy on average. 2-3 more perennial All-Stars and 4-5 good starters. 5-8 solid starters, and then a bunch of fringe starters and role players. Occassionally you have a terrible one (2000), but you dont ever have ones that are 9 deep with All-Stars.

I don't think Ford will be right and all 9 will be All-Stars (or that some he does not have designated as All-Stars could emerge). However, if this is based on a poll of scouts and GMs, it shows me that the decision makers think this is a high quality draft and many teams would be interested in taking a shot on this potential.

[MichaelMcNamara]

But you have some with 11 (exception, not rule).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1996_NBA_draft

Hard to believe with all the guys who did make AS games in that class Camby didn't.

That draft was wide open to high schoolers, had a lot of upperclassmen. And I was interpreting Ford's comment as perennial All Stars. Guys who are in the running every year. In the 96 draft, I see 6 of those. Several other guys made a game or two, but I just was thinking of a different level. Like to me, Steph Curry is an All Star player, Demar Derozen is not, even though he made the game.

I guess I am looking more for All-NBA players. But yes, that was an all time draft. I don't think this one is close. But I guess we won't know for a while