Originally Posted by
MichaelMcNamara
People say this every year. Literally every year. But it is incorrect on two levels:
1. The odds to move up. If you are 8th, you have a 26.3% to move up to the top 4. 10th and you have a 13.9% chance to move up. So, nearly double the chance to get a top pick to use or trade for a better player.
2. Every year, one or two spots make a massive difference. We experienced it last year where a coin flip was the difference between Haliburton or Kira Lewis. And if you love Lewis, then a single pick meant the difference between Lewis and Aaron Nesmith or Cole Anthony level of prospects. Going back, the Celtics wanted Herro in 2019. He went 13, when they had 14. Imagine being #15 in 2018 and just missing out on SGA and Michael Porter. Same goes for 2018 when Donovan Mitchell and Bam go the two picks before you. Remember when we had 10 and Drummond went 9? I can go on and on
People say this every year months before the draft, but on the night of the draft you always wish you were 1 or 2 or 3 spots higher. Not to mention, every pick higher you are up, the better caliber of player you can get it trades. It is fine to argue that there is more value in playing in games down the stretch that matter than there is in increasing your draft slot. But dont try to act like the latter is insignificant to make that claim. Every draft slot up matters for the two reasons I listed above. The only debate is if playing in competitive games matters more.