2013 Draft prospects Advanced Stats Evaluation

[Pelicans78]

This is a list that I'm updating with the prospects based on offensive/defensive rating difference, and win shares per 48 minutes by age. I'm gonna update it often. Last year, Anthony Davis was by far the best when it come to this. Jared Sullinger was actually number two.

Noel - (age 18) 31, 0.250
Zeller – (age 19/20), 36.3/35.4, 0.323/0.334
Porter - (age 18/19) 30.9/38.3, 0.240/0.315
Bennett – (age 19), 28.3, 0.288
McLemore - (age 19/20), 28.1, 0.262
McCollum – (age 18/19/20/21) 17.6/12/27.4/21, 0.246/0.219/0.327/0.322
Len – (age 18/19), 1.1/23.7, 0.113/0.243
Oladipo – (age 18/19/20), 9.4/13/38.6, 0.175/0.194/.320
Burke - (age 19/20) 5.1/24.3, 0.172/0.303
Carter-Williams (age 20/21), 24.2/17.2, 0.214/0.214
Shabazz - (20/21), 5.6, 0.185

[nolaslim213]

Good idea man. I can't believe how much Burke grew from year 1 to year 2 - same with Oladipo from year 2 to year 3. Also, Noel with a .250 WS/48 at only 18? That's pretty ridiculous, especially when considering that he got injured before he got to inflate that even higher (younger players progress and play better as the season goes on). Porter's game speaks for itself.

[Pelicans78]

Added Zeller and Bennett

[Pelicans78]

Good idea man. I can't believe how much Burke grew from year 1 to year 2 - same with Oladipo from year 2 to year 3. Also, Noel with a .250 WS/48 at only 18? That's pretty ridiculous, especially when considering that he got injured before he got to inflate that even higher (younger players progress and play better as the season goes on). Porter's game speaks for itself.

I was surprised how high Burke and Oladipo. That's why I'm impressed with Porter. He's done it from day one, same as Noel. Just added Zeller and Bennett.

[Pelicans78]

Marcus Smart would be number 4 right now behind Porter.

[Emilio]

Now that the prospects are starting to have my age I feel like a dinosaur.

[Pelicans78]

Added McCollum and Alex Len. Wonder how much McCollum's score is do to competition. However, wouldn't surprise me to see him have a Lillard kind of impact next season.

[Pelicans78]

Now that the prospects are starting to have my age I feel like a dinosaur.

How do you think I feel? I'm 34 now.

[Pelicans78]

Based on the data so far, I'm on the Otto Porter bandwagon big time. He fills an immediate and long-term need. I hope we get number 2 or 3. Noel has to be the number one pick. If he is, then this team needs to look at a longer rebuild, meaning not signing any long-term contracts this offseason. Why? Because the 2014 draft is better with wing players. Another high pick there could mean Noel, Davis, Anderson, Wiggins/Parker/etc, Gordon, Rivers....

[Pelicans78]

Seems like a big dropoff after the top 9 after Burke and before MCW.

[Pelicans78]

These stats don't mean everything either. Scouting, upside all matter too. If the team feels someone like Burke would be the best pick long-term, then I'm coolk with it too. I actually like Burke as a prospect better than some of the guys higher on this list.

[nolaslim213]

Added Zeller and Bennett

Zeller is off the charts, but there doesn't appear to be much improvement from year 1 to year 2. I know you think he did, 78, but I didn't get to watch a lot of his games. What do you see that he improved on?

[Pelicans78]

Zeller is off the charts, but there doesn't appear to be much improvement from year 1 to year 2. I know you think he did, 78, but I didn't get to watch a lot of his games. What do you see that he improved on?

He improved defensively according to the metrics. Better defensive rating and higher defensive win shares. His offensive mildy dropped because he had a lower total shooting due to higher usage. Rebounding improved a bit, but turnovers mildly increased as well with the higher usage. But he mostly improved on the defensive end according to the numbers.

He doesn't wow me as a prospect, but he will definitely be an offensive producer in the league. I like him at PF because I don't think he will be good enough defensively or rebounding to anchor the center spot.

[Pelicans78]

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/...-zeller-1.html

[Pelicans78]

And to be honest, I would really be happy if we drafted either Noel, Porter, or Burke. I like Bennett and McLemore too, but they don't feel a need unless Gordon is moved.

[BeeBall Reasons]

I agree about McCollum. A lot of people say that he's just like lillard that like him. They obviously haven't seen him play. Lillard is more of an athlete. McCollum is more of a crafty ball handler type. McCollum reminds me a little bit of Manu Ginobili. Not saying as good. But the way they play the game.

[ScoutWithoutClout]

This is a list that I'm updating with the prospects based on offensive/defensive rating difference, and win shares per 48 minutes by age. I'm gonna update it often. Last year, Anthony Davis was by far the best when it come to this. Jared Sullinger was actually number two.

Noel - (age 18) 31, 0.250
Zeller – (age 19/20), 36.3/35.4, 0.323/0.334
Porter - (age 18/19) 30.9/38.3, 0.240/0.315
Bennett – (age 19), 28.3, 0.288
McLemore - (age 19/20), 28.1, 0.262
McCollum – (age 18/19/20/21) 17.6/12/27.4/21, 0.246/0.219/0.327/0.322
Len – (age 18/19), 1.1/23.7, 0.113/0.243
Oladipo – (age 18/19/20), 9.4/13/38.6, 0.175/0.194/.320
Burke - (age 19/20) 5.1/24.3, 0.172/0.303
Carter-Williams (age 20/21), 24.2/17.2, 0.214/0.214
Shabazz - (20/21), 5.6, 0.185

you'll have to forgive me ignorance. what do these stats mean? like i know what determines a p.e.r. but, what determines an offensive rating? what determines a defensive rating? what are bad, average, good, and great examples? what is a win share? also, what are bad, average and great examples?

thanks

[nikkoewan]

you'll have to forgive me ignorance. what do these stats mean? like i know what determines a p.e.r. but, what determines an offensive rating? what determines a defensive rating? what are bad, average, good, and great examples? what is a win share? also, what are bad, average and great examples?

thanks

Offensive Rating -- a composite metric developed by Dean Oliver that incorporates all of the important box score offensive metrics which are field goals (made, attempted, 2s or 3s), assists, offensive rebounds, free throws and turnovers. It's a very comprehensive and detailed look at how much points does a particular player produce (not score).

Defensive Rating -- a composite metric developed by Dean Oliver based on his "defensive score sheet". Defensive score sheets are a tally of all the missed shots that were recorded under a specific player. Whether it's his man or a term coined "team shot missed" i.e. the shot was forced to miss by the team. It's not really a metric that provides great insight to a player's defensive ability but it does provide great insight into how well did a specific player play in defensive system. A player who has a good defensive rating on a "bad defensive team" probably means he's doing something right. A player with a bad defensive rating on a good defensive team probably means he's doing something wrong. The converse cannot be said (a player with a good defensive rating on a good defensive team or a player with a bad defensive rating on a bad defensive team).

Win Share is just putting both individual ORTG and DRTG back to the team level (i.e. putting it in the context of wins). Win Share can either be in bulk (total Win Shares) or on a per48 minute basis (WS/48).

Here's a list of bad, average, good great of those 4 statistics.

ORTG/DRTG -- just look at the league wide team rating (since individual ORTG/DRTG should consolidate well with team ORTG/DRTG). For this year, league average is 105.8. If you peg it at 106, that means ORTG below 106 is "bad", 106 is "average". Players that usually reach the 110+ means they're good. 110~119 means they're excellent. 120+ means they're F****NG awesome.

DRTG are similar (but inverse). Above 106 is bad. 106 is average. below 106 is good. Players that fall below 100 (usually the threshold of good defensive teams. For reference, IND is at 99.8) are excellent. Players that fall below 90 are F****NG awesome.

WS/48 - on a per game basis, average means you win half the time, you lose half the time. Therefore, in one game, average means there is 0.5 win shares to be distributed per game (a hard concept to grasp, I'm sure). If there are 5 players on the court, this means the average ws/48 for each player is 0.100. Between, .100 ~ .150 means you're good. .150 ~ .200 means you're excellent. Anything above .200 is excellent. .300 is just *shiver*.

For perspective on WS/48, a WS/48 of .200 means that you can theoretically play one guy with a WS/48 of 0 and 3 average players (3 .100 players) and you'll still be good. Lebron, has a WS/48 of .322. He plays with Wade (WS/48 of .192) and Bosh (WS/48 of .175). Kill me now.

TWS (Total Win Share) - never looked at this as much because they can be skewed by the amount of minutes a player plays. I can say though that players with TWS of double digits are awesome.

Anything else sir?