New Orleans Pelicans Lottery Projections – One Final Look

[Hornets247 Staff]

With just one week until the end of the 2012-13 NBA regular season, we take one last look at where the Hornets stand among the other lottery-bound teams.

First, each potential lottery team’s record and remaining schedule:

1. Charlotte Bobcats (18-60) -*at Detroit, vs. Milwaukee, vs. New York, vs. Cleveland
2. Orlando Magic (20-59) – vs. Boston, vs. Chicago, at Miami
3. Phoenix Suns (24-55) -*at Minnesota, vs. Houston, at Denver
4. Cleveland Cavaliers (24-54) -*vs. New York, at Philadelphia, vs. Miami, at Charlotte
5. Detroit Pistons (27-52) -*vs. Charlotte, vs. Philadelphia, at Brooklyn
6. New Orleans Hornets (27-52) – vs. LA Clippers, vs. Dallas, at Dallas
7. Sacramento Kings (28-50) – at San Antonio, at Houston, at OKC, vs. LA Clippers
8. Washington Wizards (29-50) – vs. Philadelphia, at Brooklyn, at Chicago
9. Minnesota Timberwolves (29-49) – at Utah, vs. Phoenix, vs. Utah, at San Antonio
10. Toronto Raptors (30-48) -*vs. Chicago, vs. Brooklyn, at Atlanta, vs. Boston
11. Philadelphia 76ers (31-47) - at Washington, vs. Cleveland, at Detroit, at Indiana
12. Portland Trail Blazers (33-45) -*vs. OKC, at Denver, at LA Clippers, vs. Golden State
13. Dallas Mavericks (38-40) -*vs. Denver, at New Orleans, vs. Memphis, vs. New Orleans
14. Utah Jazz (41-38) -*vs. Minnesota, at Minnesota, at Memphis
15. Los Angeles Lakers (42-37) – vs. Golden State, vs. San Antonio, vs. Houston

Given the above data, we can place each of the bottom 11 teams into four tiers. Barring an entirely unexpected string of events, the teams in each tier won’t move into another tier by season’s end.
Tier 1: Charlotte and Orlando
Tier 2: Phoenix and Cleveland
Tier 3: Detroit, New Orleans, and Sacramento
Tier 4: Washington, Minnesota, Toronto, and Philadelphia
Portland, Dallas, and Utah/Los Angeles are each almost certainly locked into their current spots.

Final Projections + odds of receiving #1 pick
1. *Charlotte Bobcats (19-63) *25%
2. Orlando Magic (20-62) *19.9%
3. Phoenix Suns (24-58) *15.6%
4. Cleveland Cavaliers (25-57) *11.9%
5. New Orleans Hornets (27-55) *8.8%
6. Sacramento Kings (28-54) *6.3%
7. Detroit Pistons (29-53) 4.3%
8a. Washington Wizards (30-52) *2.25%
8b. Minnesota Timberwolves (30-52) *2.25%
10. Toronto Raptors (31-51) *1.1%
11. Philadelphia 76ers (32-50) *0.8%
12. Portland Trail Blazers (33-49) *0.7%
13. Dallas Mavericks (40-42) *0.6%
14. Utah Jazz (43-39) *0.5%

Note: The Hornets’ 0-3 projection down the stretch is heavily correlated to their current injury concerns. Vasquez admittedly had trouble playing through his injured ankle last night, and there is a strong chance that Davis may be shut down for the last week of the season after the knee sprain he suffered last night. If they are on the court and healthy by Sunday, I would expect them to beat the Mavericks in the team’s home finale.

Leave your thoughts on how the standings will end up in the comments below!


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[UNO Gracias]

Trey Burke

[BallSoHard]

Lakers pick belongs to the suns

[Snarly]

Don't see the Pistons losing to the bobcats at home and don't see the Hornets losing to Dallas twice. I see 28 wins between the Pistons and Hornets. The Hornets will likely tie with Detroit and forces a coin flip. Hopefully we win this time around.

[BallSoHard]

I think the bobcats should be fined on how bad they run their franchise..

[Inner_GI]

Lakers pick belongs to the suns

Only if they miss the playoffs right?

[NOLa.]

Poor Jordan, he just can't figure out why his team is always bad.

[Soundwave]

Trey Burke

What are his chances of winning the Lottery?

[smcgull]

I can't believe teams will try to lose. I thought the lottery was to prevent that. The tried to win games last year but just happened to get the first pick.