Young Dudes Ranked

[Pelicanidae]

If you really wanna get deep into the weeds on Herb's 3-pt shooting...check out his regular season shot chart sometime. Especially his shots taken from 16'-to the 3-pt line range. Probably gonna show he was 16-42 from that distance. Funny thing is...I think I remember Herb taking TWO shots from that distance during the entire season that were SUPPOSE to be 2-pt shots. The other 40 shots were actually Herb's attempt at taking a 3-pt shot...that weren't "charted" as 3-pt attempts due to Herb's rather odd habit of "foot faulting". By the way...Herb was 1-2 on those 2 legit midrange shots he intentionally took. And by the way, part 2...check out that shot chart & you'll find...Herb had ZERO foot faults on the left side corner 3...and a schit-load of foot faults on the right side corner 3.

You can actually look at where Herb (or any other player) took all of their shots precisely on the court - at least as precisely as publicly available NBA tracking data allows - on nbashotcharts.com

It's in the Raw Shots section, you can type in any player and search by year, by date, and by quarter/half if you want to.

If you look up Herb last season he shot 43/151 from the midrange and almost all of them were those long-midrange 16 footers and out. He barely took anything closer than about 15 feet that wasn't right in the paint. No 12 footers from Herb. 43/151 is bad, by the way, not good at all. The good news is, that's the smallest percentage of shots he took in any zone. This is good because unless they're astronomically elite, you usually don't want roleplayers taking middies anyway. 46% of his shots came at the rim, where he produced 1.32 points per shot, which is actually pretty damn good. 29% of his shots came from 3, where he was 1.03 points per shot; not great but solid enough.

From midrange? 0.57 points per shot. Please do not take those anymore. Compare him to a true mid-range maestro like CP3 (1.13 points per shot) or Durant (1.06 pps) and it's clear why you don't want him taking those.

[Pelicanidae]

If Herb was on Lu Dort's contract going into next season and it was pushing us into the tax, I wonder how people would feel about him.

And if Jose is who people think he is and he warrants the 2/$30m that Tyus just got in a couple of years, what do we do? When we're already in the tax because of Herb's new deal, and staring at Trey's new deal on the horizon, as well as a BI extension, what then?

If all these dudes are who we hope they are, don't see how we keep all of them. I think Pels will pay the tax, but even tax paying teams have to make difficult decisions to make sure they're competing for a championship while they're paying the tax.

Personally, how would I feel if it was pushing us into the tax?

I wouldn't care. Team's owned by a billionaire. If you want to win at the highest level in the NBA, you pay the luxury tax. It's no surprise that Golden State, probably the most successful NBA franchise over the last decade, is also the franchise that has been most willing to just eat luxury tax bills. You want to assemble a good team and then keep it together, you're going to get those bills - if Gayle has any intention of ever competing for championships, she already knows that. So how do we keep all of them? Pay the tax, and keep paying the tax.

[UNO Gracias]

If Herb was on Lu Dort's contract going into next season and it was pushing us into the tax, I wonder how people would feel about him.

And if Jose is who people think he is and he warrants the 2/$30m that Tyus just got in a couple of years, what do we do? When we're already in the tax because of Herb's new deal, and staring at Trey's new deal on the horizon, as well as a BI extension, what then?

If all these dudes are who we hope they are, don't see how we keep all of them. I think Pels will pay the tax, but even tax paying teams have to make difficult decisions to make sure they're competing for a championship while they're paying the tax.

If everything breaks the way we hope (and the owner now has to pay the players), that would mean that the team is winning. If the team is winning, the owner will pay to keep the talent together. This isn?t the George Shinn welfare Hornets, the team may have fielded poor teams in the recent past, but if the team is winning, butts are in seats. If butts are in seats, the lux tax is easier to pay.

[The Dud]

You can actually look at where Herb (or any other player) took all of their shots precisely on the court - at least as precisely as publicly available NBA tracking data allows - on nbashotcharts.com

It's in the Raw Shots section, you can type in any player and search by year, by date, and by quarter/half if you want to.

If you look up Herb last season he shot 43/151 from the midrange and almost all of them were those long-midrange 16 footers and out. He barely took anything closer than about 15 feet that wasn't right in the paint. No 12 footers from Herb. 43/151 is bad, by the way, not good at all. The good news is, that's the smallest percentage of shots he took in any zone. This is good because unless they're astronomically elite, you usually don't want roleplayers taking middies anyway. 46% of his shots came at the rim, where he produced 1.32 points per shot, which is actually pretty damn good. 29% of his shots came from 3, where he was 1.03 points per shot; not great but solid enough.

From midrange? 0.57 points per shot. Please do not take those anymore. Compare him to a true mid-range maestro like CP3 (1.13 points per shot) or Durant (1.06 pps) and it's clear why you don't want him taking those.

Sorry...As usual...I'm doing a lousy job of explaining myself. My attempted point was to show that Herb took between 35-40 shots from ON TOP of the 3-pt line...that were suppose to be 3-pt shots. Herb was set up outside the 3-pt line, & these were C&S 3s but then before releasing the shot , slid his (left) foot up and ON the 3-pt line, which made the shot charts show these as THE WORST OF ALL SHOTS, THE LOOOONG 2-PT SHOT. Obviously, Herb should NEVER take a looong 2-pt shot...and he wasn't actually trying to do so. On another site, we actually tried to keep up with a running total of how many "foot faults" Herb had for the year...but we stopped at around 30 or so. Funny thing was...if you look at the charts...you see Herb had a bunch of foot faults ON TOP of the 3-pt line in the right corner, and NONE in the left 3-pt corner. Bear in mind, ANY shot they show from beyond 16' or so (except for the 2 that should be obvious on your chart)...was meant by Herb to be a 3-pt shot when he took it, & should logically be considered a shot from 3...if you're trying to get an accurate reading on his true shooting % from "3 point distance".

[NMThreeMVP]

If everything breaks the way we hope (and the owner now has to pay the players), that would mean that the team is winning. If the team is winning, the owner will pay to keep the talent together. This isn?t the George Shinn welfare Hornets, the team may have fielded poor teams in the recent past, but if the team is winning, butts are in seats. If butts are in seats, the lux tax is easier to pay.

Normal luxury tax bill... yes. I think she should pay it and will.
Warriors/Clippers level luxury tax bill... I'll believe it when I see it.

[Tin_Food]

Yeah I had that feeling with Alvarado as well, the only difference is that I thought he would have been exposed already. I'm thinking he could end up like a Carlos Arroyo, so he sticks around in the NBA as a journeyman.

Herb Jones I haven't thought about as much, if his shot regresses to the mean, what do you have? I guess Thabo sefalosa, or Matisse thybulle, who I'd love to have, but you're limited in the stations you can use him

[JR SMITH]

Hayes
Jones
Murphy III
Liddell
Alvarez
Daniels
Lewis Jr.
Marshall

[redrum]

Herb's value is the fact that he willingly defended the other teams best player without fear as a rookie. Any offense was a bonus.
I have said before I see Herb more as a 6th man in a Bobby Jones type role. Hit shots when open, play d, and hustle!

Jose is also a fearless pest. His offense is ok, but every time he gets on the court he gives you everything he has. A quality not easy to find.
That said, he loses his speed or gets complacent, he is almost worthless.
Is Kira a more talented player, yes, but he needs a little more Jose in his personality.
I would love to watch them scrimmage against each other. At this point I would bet on Jose.

1 6'10" Trey
2 Herb
3 Daniels
4 EJ
5 Jose
6 Kira
7 Naji
8 Hayes

I think every team should have a Naji, team guy, playing summer league 3rd year in a row, seems to know his role, pushes teammates at practice, and is ready when rarely called upon.
That said, in a numbers crunch, he could be replaced.

Jaxson, I am done with, on and off the court. Had moments as a 4 last year without Zion, with Zion and Nance back, I can now only view him as a salary to trade.
Hoping for him to improve his game or value this year with very little playing time available is a waste of resources and time.
As low as his value may be now, this might be the highest it will ever get as a Pelican. Trade as soon as possible!

[The Dud]

Yeah I had that feeling with Alvarado as well, the only difference is that I thought he would have been exposed already. I'm thinking he could end up like a Carlos Arroyo, so he sticks around in the NBA as a journeyman.

Herb Jones I haven't thought about as much, if his shot regresses to the mean, what do you have? I guess Thabo sefalosa, or Matisse thybulle, who I'd love to have, but you're limited in the stations you can use him

FWIW: Seems many 76ers, including some "key" ones... already consider Thybulle to be a "net negative"...and I think they're right. Wouldn't surprise me if he is "moved" in the near future. Not sure what that says about Herb...

[Tin_Food]

FWIW: Seems many 76ers, including some "key" ones... already consider Thybulle to be a "net negative"...and I think they're right. Wouldn't surprise me if he is "moved" in the near future. Not sure what that says about Herb...

Exactly, which is why I'm not opposed to moving him if the offer is right. It's a pity though, they have almost every other thing you would want in these sorts of players. Just wish the shot was serviceable so you could keep him around.

[PelsFan2313]

1. Herb/Murphy, 2. Murphy/Herb, 3. Daniels, 4. Jose, 5. EJ, 6. Kira, 7. Naji, 8. Jax.

[Savvy_Bird]

MM. This is such a great question and at perfect timing.

Daniels - highest drafted player; yet to see perform; highly graded in club evaluation
Herb - playoff starter! Exclamation point, not a question mark; all-star??No way;all-nba(defense)?.Maybe ��
Trigger Trey - 40% from 3!?!; 6-10=Legit PF?; 6th man/most improved?; trade value=?potential? all-star
Jose - fan base support; excellent contract; defensive specialist for playoff guards; higher internal value than trade value
Hayes - (worst) playoff starter!?!; young, rim runner; is there a value to extend (or trade) w/ correct role?
Naji - playoff rotation player; in summer league?; BI relationship; internal value greater than trade value
Kira - exciting; hoping to have biggest rise up list next year; willing to sell loto ticket over any of players above.
EJ - exciting, but willing to move for good value; draft value is higher than selection.

You should have a post to rank the top vet non-all stars (trade fillers) players next. Who ranks #1?..JV or Nance?

That thread would be loaded with interesting team construction questions:
- the last spot between temple and graham
- does CJ belong on this list?

[Eyquem]

Herb's steady and consistent improvement from the free throw line is something that gives me what I hope is an objective reason to believe in his shooting. Here are his FT%s from the last 5 years:

Alabama '18: 50%
'19:............. 49.5%
'20:..............62.5%
'21:..............71.3%
Pelicans '22:..84%

Here's his TS%s from the last 5 years:

'18: 44.6%
'19: 45.6%
'20: 52.9%
'21: 52.8%
'22: 57.3%

The question is whether or not he can continue to improve, or if he's close to maxed out. I think the progression shows that his improvement isn't a fluke-- it's not like there's simply a single outlier year. If he can maintain current percentages while upping things like Usage Rate, assists, and FGA, he'll be incredibly valuable.

[msusousaphone]

Herb's steady and consistent improvement from the free throw line is something that gives me what I hope is an objective reason to believe in his shooting. Here are his FT%s from the last 5 years:

Alabama '18: 50%
'19:............. 49.5%
'20:..............62.5%
'21:..............71.3%
Pelicans '22:..84%

Here's his TS%s from the last 5 years:

'18: 44.6%
'19: 45.6%
'20: 52.9%
'21: 52.8%
'22: 57.3%

The question is whether or not he can continue to improve, or if he's close to maxed out. I think the progression shows that his improvement isn't a fluke-- it's not like there's simply a single outlier year. If he can maintain current percentages while upping things like Usage Rate, assists, and FGA, he'll be incredibly valuable.

Great post.

[MichaelMcNamara]

Herb's steady and consistent improvement from the free throw line is something that gives me what I hope is an objective reason to believe in his shooting. Here are his FT%s from the last 5 years:

Alabama '18: 50%
'19:............. 49.5%
'20:..............62.5%
'21:..............71.3%
Pelicans '22:..84%

Here's his TS%s from the last 5 years:

'18: 44.6%
'19: 45.6%
'20: 52.9%
'21: 52.8%
'22: 57.3%

The question is whether or not he can continue to improve, or if he's close to maxed out. I think the progression shows that his improvement isn't a fluke-- it's not like there's simply a single outlier year. If he can maintain current percentages while upping things like Usage Rate, assists, and FGA, he'll be incredibly valuable.

Yeah, I think its unlikely he declines. The question is whether he has reached the top (or near top) of his game. And lets say he has. Just as a thought exercise, lets imagine Herb last year is the exact Herb you get for the next 10 years. That Herb is as valuable as (insert other current or former NBA player) and is worth (insert fair contract)

[AusPel]

Somewhere in between Smart and Jrue

[MichaelMcNamara]

Wait, you think last years Herb Jones is as valuable as somewhere between Smart and Jrue? You gotta explain that to me. I thought I loved the guy but I am starting to feel more like I am in the bottom tier of the Herb Jones fan club

[Rheem654]

Dort's contract seems to have set the an expectation for contract talks with Herb. If I were his agent, I'd be pointing to Dort and Mikal Bridges contracts to begin negotiations.

[The Dud]

Herb's steady and consistent improvement from the free throw line is something that gives me what I hope is an objective reason to believe in his shooting. Here are his FT%s from the last 5 years:

Alabama '18: 50%
'19:............. 49.5%
'20:..............62.5%
'21:..............71.3%
Pelicans '22:..84%

Here's his TS%s from the last 5 years:

'18: 44.6%
'19: 45.6%
'20: 52.9%
'21: 52.8%
'22: 57.3%

The question is whether or not he can continue to improve, or if he's close to maxed out. I think the progression shows that his improvement isn't a fluke-- it's not like there's simply a single outlier year. If he can maintain current percentages while upping things like Usage Rate, assists, and FGA, he'll be incredibly valuable.

The reason I am SO optimistic on Herb is that he is what we call a "psychological anomaly". He, weirdly enough, entered the NBA (forget his actual age) like a 27 year old... defensively... but like a 16 year old...offensively. Usually, gifted, athletic kids will tend to lean toward developing offensively and very little at all, defensively. Herb...for reasons open to debate...was the opposite. So...we have this strange "Herb"...who shows up at the Pels door & is fantastic on D, with a totally "stunted" offensive game.

I would have luved to have been in the room when Willie and whomever...first figured it out & looked at each other & said, "WHAT, IN THE WORLD, DO WE HAVE HERE !!" ? (At a 35 pick !!) I just assume it was at some point during last year's summer league. This is why I have always said that I have NO idea what Herb's ceiling is...offensively. But, given his work ethic...I remain VERY optimistic.

I must admit, the Pels seem to have done everything right, so far, with Herb. To try and get him on the court, this first year, they just concentrated on trying to develope a passable C&S 3 which kept him from being a HUGE negative on the offensive end. I was afraid they might not see his potential on the offensive end...and just stick him in the corner to shoot the open 3. I'm not a fan, of the dedicated corner 3 shooter, unless it's a last resort. This year...I'm hoping the Pels will try and add a "floater" to Herb's arsenal. Small steps, but I MUCH prefer a "floater" to a pull up midrange jumper, in todays' game. Gonna be fun to watch...

[The Dud]

Wait, you think last years Herb Jones is as valuable as somewhere between Smart and Jrue? You gotta explain that to me. I thought I loved the guy but I am starting to feel more like I am in the bottom tier of the Herb Jones fan club

Ha...That would be a bit of a stretch...EVEN for me...and I'm the biggest Herboholic in the known universe !!

[Rheem654]

Ha...That would be a bit of a stretch...EVEN for me...and I'm the biggest Herboholic in the known universe !!

An over-exaggeration about Herb? Sounds like hyHerbole...

[The Dud]

An over-exaggeration about Herb? Sounds like hyHerbole...

Hmmm...VERY well done. I'm gonna have to keep an eye on you...you've got potential....g

[NMThreeMVP]

Yeah, I think its unlikely he declines. The question is whether he has reached the top (or near top) of his game. And lets say he has. Just as a thought exercise, lets imagine Herb last year is the exact Herb you get for the next 10 years. That Herb is as valuable as (insert other current or former NBA player) and is worth (insert fair contract)

Dort feels like the best comp because it's the most recent for a similar player and also Herb will be in a similar situation contract wise coming off of a 2nd round contract. It could get as high as Bridges, but I don't see it surpassing that. Bridges had the benefit of 1st round pedigree.

The best case scenario for these players on the court is going to lead to some tough decisions. Even though I think Benson will pay the luxury tax, I think the organization is going to make decisions like what the Warriors just make with GPII sooner rather than later.

It's not apples to apples, but I lead an organization and when I meet with my COO we talk all the time about having a talent pipeline which allows the machine to keep going even if we lose members of senior management. I think that's the ideal philosophy and what the Warriors are hoping for. It's just that in sports you can and should trade that person if you have confidence you can replace them before they walk for nothing to a competitor. What makes the Warriors so interesting, is that if they could've traded GPII and not lost him for nothing, that might have been the right long term move - but then they probably don't win the championship this year. The playing for now and the upcoming season, and simultaneously mapping assets and planning for the future in sports is the hardest thing that team presidents balance IMO.

[ragincaucasian]

In Jose's defense, he WAS the ACC defensive player of the year. So it's not like he's doing anything new. And I think the current team atmosphere will encourage him to stay a dog. But I get what you guys are saying about how NBA players will study him and prepare for him more than anyone did in college.

They can prepare all they want, but when a guy like that is harassing the everliving hell out of you, full court, every second you are on the court...it's exhausting. It's just draining, especially when it's a Tuesday night game in the dog days of the season, and you are on the 2nd night of a back to back. You just want to go take a nap...but instead of a nap you get to see Jose for 30 minutes of borderline sexual harassment in the Blender.

And I think alot of people here forget that on nights that he went to the G League last season, the team literally looked dead. We were all on here trying to figure out what the hell they were doing with zero energy or motivation. Then when Jose came back we went back into overdrive again.

Yeah, he is short and will get picked on in bigger matchups, but the positives have far outweighed the negatives.

[Spaniard]

Wait, you think last years Herb Jones is as valuable as somewhere between Smart and Jrue? You gotta explain that to me. I thought I loved the guy but I am starting to feel more like I am in the bottom tier of the Herb Jones fan club

This is actually an interesting thought exercise, as I assume you are alluding to Jones not being near as valuable as Smart. Meanwhile all of Herb?s shooting numbers are better, both career and even this past season. And I see Jones as a much more versatile defender with his height and length. Allows him to legitimately defend all the way down the lineup even adequately on some 5?s. And he?s definitely more proven to use his length in blocking shots as compared to Smart.

This is not something anyone is going to be able to ?prove?, but I think you may be shooting down that idea way to quickly.