Ranking the West, as of today

[MichaelMcNamara]

Pels went 33-30 after the 3-16 start. A majority of those games you did not have BI and Willie was incorporating his system, so I believe you can write those off. Then acquired CJ and Nance while diminishing Temple minutes. Now you add in Zion, Daniels, an extra year of development for Trey, Herb, and Jose. Would be extremely disappointing if we finished lower than 8th

This is how we see things from the fan perspective, always writing off outlier bads while lifting up the good and assuming that will be the baseline to grow from. Meanwhile, give none of that same grace to the opponents. I am sure every fan base, every single one, can tell you a story about how their final record wasn't indicative of who they really were, but instead X stretch was who they actually were and if you take that plus add the growth of Y and Z players, plus the addition of A player, and another year of continuity, then voila - they will be much better!

We always leave out the parts that were outliers in the other direction that might not allow for the same duplicate success in that stretch. All that goes to say that yes, you can make a case that the Pelicans were akin to a 50 win team at the end of the season when they had all their guys locked in, and now you add Zion and Daniels to that. But that is still projection, not objective reality. Personally, I like the way the team is built, and for the first time maybe ever, will be hammering the over this year. But you all should prepare yourself for all these national folks that you think are coming around and talking all good about the Pels lately, to predict them to do worse than what you guys are. And not because they are dumb or haters or whatever, but because they just have never actually shown these things we are projecting, while other teams have

[da ThRONe]

Stuck to your guns as in, you didn't read everyone else's takes and modify what you thought, you just went with what you thought.

As to what those particular guns would be, I mean things like ranking the Clippers 1st when most other people have them ranked no higher than 3rd, placing the Pelicans out of the playoffs entirely and in a play-in situation, and listing the Lakers are a non-play-in-playoff spot. Those are all slightly unusual takes, imo, and despite them being in the minority in the thread you stuck with them anyway. Even if I think they're bad takes, I appreciate that you went for it.

Ok I was genuinely curious what you meant by that statement. I think it's pretty obvious at this point that I stick to my guns for better or worse.

[Spanish_pelican]

1. Grizzlies
2. Warriors
3. Clippers
4. Nuggets
5. Mavericks
6. Suns
7. Pelicans
8. Wolves
9. Lakers
10. Blazers
11. Lakers
12. Kings
13. Spurs
14. Rockets
15. Thunder

[pelafanatic]

Im not making a case for a 50 win team. Even with the addition of CJ, this is a fairly young team; however, the Clippers had the 8th best record in the west last season at 42-40. The Wolves 7th at 46-36. Even conservatively, I see us one or two games above .500. And that’s with no growth from the young guys and injuries to the big 3 baked in

[luckyman]

95% of people will simply copy/paste whatever occurred the previous season into the next. Whether they are fans or not.

The only exceptions are some large market teams with proven players, or if they make big moves in free agency. Which is why so many still had the Lakers as a title contender last year.

Rarely does anybody take the chance, analyze on a clean slate, and predict a big leap for a small market team. Not safe enough and too risky. They'll keep those teams 6 - 10 and be done with it.

Btw free agency starts thursday and there is no thread yet?

Very interested to see what Memphis does. They've got a few decisions to make.

[Algiersraised]

Should be a top 4 team only team in the west that should concern us is golden state until we can shoot threes consistently or defend them , mavs are not getting better neither is Denver same team basically un athletic star with subpar surrounding players until Murray and porter is back . Clipper stars injury history is worst then zions . Suns will just slowly descend unless bridges takes a step along with ayton being more aggressive,


The future is teams that never won anything on the west
Grizzlies with ja and co
Timberwolves with edwards and towns (plays too soft too often )
Us with Brandon ,Zion , and co

[MichaelMcNamara]

Im not making a case for a 50 win team. Even with the addition of CJ, this is a fairly young team; however, the Clippers had the 8th best record in the west last season at 42-40. The Wolves 7th at 46-36. Even conservatively, I see us one or two games above .500. And that’s with no growth from the young guys and injuries to the big 3 baked in

I think the biggest mistake people make is using the previous season as a baseline - for anything. There are millions of variables in a season, most of which wont be repeated again, and yet it is always used as a baseline. Sure, 8th was 42-40 last year. There was also a season where 48 wins got the Phoenix Suns 9th place. Its hard to do but you have to wipe everything clean. You cant use it as a baseline to go off of. The equation for a single team is never - last years record plus improvements made minus roster subtractions equals wins this year. Yet, that is the way we tend to think of it, and then do the same for the whole conference, and then the whole league. You have to remove the previous season as a baseline because 90% of the variables that occured in it, wont occur in this season

[Pelicanidae]

Im not making a case for a 50 win team. Even with the addition of CJ, this is a fairly young team; however, the Clippers had the 8th best record in the west last season at 42-40. The Wolves 7th at 46-36. Even conservatively, I see us one or two games above .500. And that’s with no growth from the young guys and injuries to the big 3 baked in

I think we can be a 50 win team, assuming good injury luck. Of course everything changes if Zion or Ingram or CJ (or some combination of the 3) go down for significant games. But if everything goes well in terms of injury luck, I think estimating us to win anywhere in the range of about 47-52 games makes a lot of sense. It seems a bit weird to me to predict the Clippers becoming 20+ games better (which is what it would take for them to be #1 seed) because of a returning Kawhi off a traumatic injury and another 40 games of PG, but not assuming the Pelicans could be even 10 games better with a full season of Zion off a smaller injury, 50+ extra games of CJ, and 30 extra games of Ingram.

The jump from 36 wins to 46 wins is, I think, an easier jump to make than the leap from 42 wins to 62 wins, for probably obvious reasons, and I think we're more likely to jump 10 games than the Clippers are to jump 20.

[da ThRONe]

I think we can be a 50 win team, assuming good injury luck. Of course everything changes if Zion or Ingram or CJ (or some combination of the 3) go down for significant games. But if everything goes well in terms of injury luck, I think estimating us to win anywhere in the range of about 47-52 games makes a lot of sense. It seems a bit weird to me to predict the Clippers becoming 20+ games better (which is what it would take for them to be #1 seed) because of a returning Kawhi off a traumatic injury and another 40 games of PG, but not assuming the Pelicans could be even 10 games better with a full season of Zion off a smaller injury, 50+ extra games of CJ, and 30 extra games of Ingram.

The jump from 36 wins to 46 wins is, I think, an easier jump to make than the leap from 42 wins to 62 wins, for probably obvious reasons, and I think we're more likely to jump 10 games than the Clippers are to jump 20.

When healthy IMO Kawhi is the best player in the league. In term of scoring inefficiency, defense and killer instinct the closest we've seen to Jordan since Jordan. Adding him and PG a guy I think is also top 25 to a team that was already well coached and were able to fight into the play in games thinking 20 games(assuming that's exactly the number) isn't crazy. Honestly I don't think the Pels making a jump is crazy either. Nobody saw the Grizz getting the 2nd seed. But I think give the circumstances Clippers have a far better chance of making the jump to number 1.

[MichaelMcNamara]

When healthy IMO Kawhi is the best player in the league. In term of scoring inefficiency, defense and killer instinct the closest we've seen to Jordan since Jordan. Adding him and PG a guy I think is also top 25 to a team that was already well coached and were able to fight into the play in games thinking 20 games(assuming that's exactly the number) isn't crazy. Honestly I don't think the Pels making a jump is crazy either. Nobody saw the Grizz getting the 2nd seed. But I think give the circumstances Clippers have a far better chance of making the jump to number 1.

I think you are thinking of this exercise as best team vs best regular season. Two different things IMO. Kawhi might be better than anybody on the Pels. He will also rest a ton, play limited minutes, and go 80% because playoffs are all that matter to guys that age, with titles under their belt. A fully healthy Clippers team vs a fully healthy Pels team in a playoff series -- I go Clips. But an 82 game slog, give me the young guys who will be up for an excited for a Tuesday game in February over the vets who will just be going through the motions to get to April.

[rocketfox]

If Gobert and Ayton leave their teams I'm celebrating though

[MichaelMcNamara]

I go back and forth. I want to see the West stay strong 1-8 from last year and even see SA and Portland get better. The Pels will be whatever they will be but the true bonus of next year would be the Lakers being at the bottom again. They are the only team in the West I want to see get worse this off-season

[RUFshreve]

My regular season rankings for the West:

1. Phoenix
2. Golden St
3. LAC
4. New Orleans
5. Denver
6. Memphis
7. Dallas
8. Minnesota
9. Utah
10. Portland
11. San Antonio
12. LAL
13. OKC
14. Sacramento
15. Houston

[Pelicanidae]

When healthy IMO Kawhi is the best player in the league. In term of scoring inefficiency, defense and killer instinct the closest we've seen to Jordan since Jordan. Adding him and PG a guy I think is also top 25 to a team that was already well coached and were able to fight into the play in games thinking 20 games(assuming that's exactly the number) isn't crazy. Honestly I don't think the Pels making a jump is crazy either. Nobody saw the Grizz getting the 2nd seed. But I think give the circumstances Clippers have a far better chance of making the jump to number 1.

I think at least in terms of the regular season, Kawhi's defense has dropped off pretty significantly over the last few years. That's not to say he's a bad defender, because he's still very good, but his reputation as a DPOY level guy seems to trail him despite that level of impact being pretty much absent in the regular season since he left the Spurs. In terms of the impact that has on a playoff series, it's certainly very important, but I don't think it's worth really factoring into regular season win counts - especially when he's coming back off an ACL tear and a missed full season. I find it very difficult to believe he'll be playing all the games at anything like full intensity in the regular season; him sitting out 20+ games for rest and recovery wouldn't surprise me at all.

The thing about PG is that because he played some of last year and also not some of last year, we got a sample (admittedly small) of what the Clippers lineup looks like both with and without him. Without him, they played at a 39 win pace. With him, they played at a 47 win pace. So if you assume they win roughly 47 games with a full season of PG, you're still putting Kawhi on the hook for basically 15 extra wins. That's a lot to expect from someone who will probably sit out 20+ games, is coming off a massive injury, and who was worth an estimated 8.3 extra wins in the last season he played.

[MichaelMcNamara]

My regular season rankings for the West:

1. Phoenix
2. Golden St
3. LAC
4. New Orleans
5. Denver
6. Memphis
7. Dallas
8. Minnesota
9. Utah
10. Portland
11. San Antonio
12. LAL
13. OKC
14. Sacramento
15. Houston

Imagine getting another top 8 (possibly top 4) pick!!

[AusPel]

Imagine getting two

[Pelicanidae]

Pels playing the long game with Jax and JV because they know they're drafting Wemby next year. Think smarter, not harder.

[pelafanatic]

Pels playing the long game with Jax and JV because they know they're drafting Wemby next year. Think smarter, not harder.

Realistically, what does the ideal center look like next to a Zion, BI, CJ, Herb, Trey, Daniels core?

[MichaelMcNamara]

Realistically, what does the ideal center look like next to a Zion, BI, CJ, Herb, Trey, Daniels core?

I don’t think there is a center on that team. At least not one finishing games or playing more than 26 mins

On that team, I would want a Looney. Guy who plays every night, doesn’t want the ball, sets screens and does dirty work and then is clapping in the final 6 mins on the bench

[pelafanatic]

I don’t think there is a center on that team. At least not one finishing games or playing more than 26 mins

On that team, I would want a Looney. Guy who plays every night, doesn’t want the ball, sets screens and does dirty work and then is clapping in the final 6 mins on the bench

So you are in on the idea of Isaiah Stewart? I think I am

[Pelicanidae]

Realistically, what does the ideal center look like next to a Zion, BI, CJ, Herb, Trey, Daniels core?

7 foot + guy who is an absurdly talented shotblocker who can play both on and off the ball, projects to shoot as a legitimate threat, and can pass at a high level.

Basically Wemby. But that's the way the league works most of the time: talent wins. So even if he wasn't the perfect fit on paper, the reality is that the talent level between him, Zion, CJ, BI, etc, would just be so high that nobody else could compete.

Reminds me a bit of the Warriors in that, nobody fooled themselves for a second into thinking that Leandro Barbosa, Ian Clark, Brandon Rush, or Festus Ezeli were top tier depth, but when your top 3 are the 2015-16 versions of Steph/Klay/Draymond, nobody cares. You sleepwalk into 60 wins. Nobody cares if Andrew Bogut is truly the ideal centre for that team, it's winning games.

[MichaelMcNamara]

So you are in on the idea of Isaiah Stewart? I think I am

100 percent. People will want shooters and rim protectors and this and that to try to make the perfect team. You want all that, you are gonna have to pay salary wise and/or asset wise

To me, our center will be equivalent to middle relievers in baseball. Get a bunch of them. All with different strengths, and all cheap. Center by committee as opposed to trying to find the “perfect” compliment

[pelafanatic]

I like the idea of Hartenstein but he's not coming here to play backup minutes behind JV, and back up center is a poor use of your cap space. Stewart's inevitable contract would line up perfectly with JV's as well. I think hes my guy, and I'd be willing to give up Jax and whatever 2nds it takes to go get him.

[PELICANSFAN]

100 percent. People will want shooters and rim protectors and this and that to try to make the perfect team. You want all that, you are gonna have to pay salary wise and/or asset wise

To me, our center will be equivalent to middle relievers in baseball. Get a bunch of them. All with different strengths, and all cheap. Center by committee as opposed to trying to find the “perfect” compliment

Is Stewart a realistic possibility or just someone the Pels have expressed interest in?

[MichaelMcNamara]

Is Stewart a realistic possibility or just someone the Pels have expressed interest in?

What is the difference? Not sure how to answer that question.