Rumor - Pelicans listening to offers for #8

[PELICANSFAN]

I am sure this is just normal pre-draft rumor/speculation, but saw this -

Story: The New Orleans Pelicans have received several calls on the No. 8 overall pick and are willing to listens to offers, league sources say. More in our new aggregate NBA mock draft on @hoopshype. https://t.co/jOUaEVUef2

— Michael Scotto (@MikeAScotto) June 10, 2022

[Sovereign]

Trading up would be awesome, trading down would make me sad

[neitzelbaby12]

I'd be happy with a trade down to 10-13 if we can still get Dieng, Sochan, or Branham

[DroopyDawg]

You have to listen to offers... hell I'm sure every team in the lottery has received calls and are listening to offers. Doesn't mean they'll move.

[MichaelMcNamara]

They are ready to move, but it wont be far if they do (and I dont think they will). But if someone overpays and they can still get Dieng or Mathurin (vs staying and getting say Daniels, who is higher but not much), then its possible. All a math equation..... Dieng + X = Daniels.

[Eyquem]

Always good to look at all possibilities!

[DroopyDawg]

They are ready to move, but it wont be far if they do (and I dont think they will). But if someone overpays and they can still get Dieng or Mathurin (vs staying and getting say Daniels, who is higher but not much), then its possible. All a math equation..... Dieng + X = Daniels.

So is Dieng a McNamara wish? or is this something that you've gotten from the plug? You have mentioned Dieng's name a few times lately and I'm wondering if that's the future Pel.

[MichaelMcNamara]

So is Dieng a McNamara wish? or is this something that you've gotten from the plug? You have mentioned Dieng's name a few times lately and I'm wondering if that's the future Pel.

Lately? I told you guys 5 or 6 weeks ago (back when he was going in the 20s in most mocks) that he would be under consideration for us. This is not a guy I love. Daniels has been the guy I love (luckily, Pels love him too)

[RUFshreve]

Lately? I told you guys 5 or 6 weeks ago (back when he was going in the 20s in most mocks) that he would be under consideration for us. This is not a guy I love. Daniels has been the guy I love (luckily, Pels love him too)

If Daniels, Mathurin and Dieng are all still available at pick #8, do you think we would take our favorite of the 3 or attempt to trade down a few spots and grab whichever one was still on the board?

[Rheem654]

Scenario: Daniels and Sharpe are off the board at 8. Hornets call and want to move up to draft Duren, offering picks #13 and #15 plus some incentive for #8 pick.

Would you rather one of Mathurin, Griffin, Duren, Sochan at 8? Or two of Mark Williams, Dieng (may not get past OKC at 12), Branham, J. Davis, Sochan, O. Agbaji at 13 and 15?

[tdcreator]

They are ready to move, but it wont be far if they do (and I dont think they will). But if someone overpays and they can still get Dieng or Mathurin (vs staying and getting say Daniels, who is higher but not much), then its possible. All a math equation..... Dieng + X = Daniels.

Dieng and Agbaji would be the ideal for me if we trade down.

[MichaelMcNamara]

Scenario: Daniels and Sharpe are off the board at 8. Hornets call and want to move up to draft Duren, offering picks #13 and #15 plus some incentive for #8 pick.

Would you rather one of Mathurin, Griffin, Duren, Sochan at 8? Or two of Mark Williams, Dieng (may not get past OKC at 12), Branham, J. Davis, Sochan, O. Agbaji at 13 and 15?

Debate between Mathurin and Sochan.

Most humans will take the quantity option here when it is a pool of unknowns. But draft history says you go for the 8th pick roll of the dice over 13th and 15th double roll.

[PaKwAn]

Can we just give them graham back for the 15th pick?

[Rheem654]

If Daniels, Mathurin and Dieng are all still available at pick #8, do you think we would take our favorite of the 3 or attempt to trade down a few spots and grab whichever one was still on the board?

Hopefully they would definitely take Daniels either way. What would you do in this scenario?

[HornetGuru]

Depends who’s there when we pick. If Daniels or Murray are there you keep the pick

[HornetGuru]

Hopefully they would definitely take Daniels either way. What would you do in this scenario?

You take your top guy IMO

[Rheem654]

Debate between Mathurin and Sochan.

Most humans will take the quantity option here when it is a pool of unknowns. But draft history says you go for the 8th pick roll of the dice over 13th and 15th double roll.

Yea, makes sense. But man, Mark Williams could be our Robert Williams! But not at the cost of getting our potential next Brown at 8...

[Blattman]

Debate between Mathurin and Sochan.

Most humans will take the quantity option here when it is a pool of unknowns. But draft history says you go for the 8th pick roll of the dice over 13th and 15th double roll.

Actually if you check the model trying to assess pick values using NBA draft history 13 and 15 have more value than 8.

Now with the pelicans roster one pick with an higher chance of success is better than 2. So if Mathurin or Daniels are available, there's no need to trade down.

[new city champ]

I loved the idea of trading back with Charlotte a month ago when I thought we might be able to land Sochan & Daniels in the middle of the first. With those guys moving up, I’m less enamored with the move. Still, there’s a part of me that thinks trading back and getting two good, high IQ role players—say Agbaji and Liddell—is an attractive option (I’d slot Agbaji ahead of Graham on the second unit and tab Liddell as our eventual back up at PF on the assumption we won’t be paying to keep Hayes). I get that you may want to swing for more upside at 8, but I really like the Memphis model: draft dudes who know how to play and will accept their roles. Sometimes those guys turn out to have more upside anyway…

[clark griswald]

I like picks 13&15 and take Agbaji for 6'6' 3&D who shoots 3's with 40" vertical and age 22-3 so can play now and get Mark Williams with 3 blocks per game for our rim protection. free agent missing needs(very little or trade Hayes for Chicago's Coby White), all fullfilled

[MichaelMcNamara]

Actually if you check the model trying to assess pick values using NBA draft history 13 and 15 have more value than 8.

Now with the pelicans roster one pick with an higher chance of success is better than 2. So if Mathurin or Daniels are available, there's no need to trade down.

If you want to maximize your chance of getting 1 or more role players, yes, 13 and 15 has more value.

If you want to maximize your chance to get an All NBA/All Star level player, you stay at 8

[Blattman]

If you want to maximize your chance of getting 1 or more role players, yes, 13 and 15 has more value.

If you want to maximize your chance to get an All NBA/All Star level player, you stay at 8

That's not what NBA draft history says. In the last 15 years the 13th produced 3 All-Stars (Booker, Mitchell and Lavine) and the 15th produced 2 superstars (Kawhi and Giannis), the 8th none of the above, the 9th 2 All-Stars and the 7th 1 superstar (Curry) and two all-stars level (Murray and Randle).

So again by looking back into the last 15th years of the draft history, 13+15 is better than 8th just by taking chances of getting a superstar or an All-Stars level player. There's even an argument for them being better than 7th so it's not a statistical anomaly but a trend.

[MichaelMcNamara]

That’s not how you do it

It’s who is available at those picks. Who happen to be those exact picks is randomness

Is the 15th pick better than the 14th pick simply because Giannis and Kawhi went 15 and no MVP level players went 14? Of course not. All those guys you listed were available at 8 as well. Meanwhile, Paul George was not available at 13 or 15

Who went where what year is randomness. The value of a pick in the current year is not dependent on who randomly went at that pick in a previous year. The value of a pick is based on what was available at that pick. If Best Buy gives out 60 slots for people to come in and pick out anything in the store, each coming in order, there is a chance the 15th person grabs something more valuable than the 8th, but that doesn’t mean the 15th a lot was the better ticket. The 8th had more valuable options available to them than the 15th. Every time

The question is whether the Pels can identify that guy. Not whether the 8th pick has a better chance at identifying a star than 13 and 15

[Blattman]

That’s not how you do it

It’s who is available at those picks. Who happen to be those exact picks is randomness

Is the 15th pick better than the 14th pick simply because Giannis and Kawhi went 15 and no MVP level players went 14? Of course not. All those guys you listed were available at 8 as well. Meanwhile, Paul George was not available at 13 or 15

Who went where what year is randomness. The value of a pick in the current year is not dependent on who randomly went at that pick in a previous year. The value of a pick is based on what was available at that pick. If Best Buy gives out 60 slots for people to come in and pick out anything in the store, each coming in order, there is a chance the 15th person grabs something more valuable than the 8th, but that doesn’t mean the 15th a lot was the better ticket. The 8th had more valuable options available to them than the 15th. Every time

The question is whether the Pels can identify that guy. Not whether the 8th pick has a better chance at identifying a star than 13 and 15

If you speak about draft history, you have to take History into account.

I'm not saying I disagree with the rest of your argumentation but it had nothing with NBA draft history as you writed on the original post.

[MichaelMcNamara]

I am acknowledging history. It’s how you choose to parse the info.

The simple way to do it is go “Here are the results of the 15th pick…4 all stars, 8 busts, 3 role players…therefore….”

And I say simple because that’s how simple minded people do it (not talking about you. This has been a beef of mine for decades)

But a smart person would go… “At pick X, there is an average of Y All Stars on the board ACCORDING TO DRAFT HISTORY “

So I am looking at history. Just in a way a smart person should do it. Not the way most simpletons do