Rank Thes Outcomes

[MichaelMcNamara]

I still don't get the infatuation with Dieng. I'd rather take a swing on Sochan than Dieng. Just as much upside and already great to elite at certain things, so his floor is much higher. Dieng doesn't have the strength, touch or explosiveness to be a good finisher around the rim. The games he did well that raised his stock were the last 13 games of the season for the New Zealand Breakers and they went 1-11 in those 12 games. I think Dieng has about a 98% bust potential. Now if we traded back with Charlotte for 13 and 15 and got Dieng and Sochan or something like that, it would be much easier to accept. But just walking away from this draft with Dieng would feel like such a wasted opportunity.

So, do you think Sochan has a higher floor AND a higher ceiling that Dieng? Because I dont. Floor for sure. Median outcome, probably. But I think the ceiling is clearly higher with Dieng because of the ballhandling and shooting off the dribble/self creation aspects. People compare Sochan's playmaking to Draymond, which is fine, but that is still a very dependent type of playmaker. Meanwhile, I would say Dieng's playmaking is more prime Batum or a bigger prime Mike Miller.

Pels are very comfortable redshirting the pick for a year and developing whoever the pick is, knowing they might not ever get a chance to swing on a prospect with a ceiling like this again. They can draft for floor or median outcome in future drafts. They are thinking ceiling with Dieng.

[pelafanatic]

Couple things -- you can't use the MLE to just give a 1 year contract. Also, a Jazz employee told me Ingles is seriously considering going back to Australia to play his final season. But yeah, if he is willing to come and be a mentor, I'd give him Temple's roster spot, assuming the Pels could offload him.

You learn a new thing every day

[MichaelMcNamara]

Just my two cents, but with how much all fans love trades, the offseason, etc..... I think all fans should spend WAY more time learning the CBA than studying "film" of prospects, typing opinions on message boards, etc. Learn the CBA (shouldnt take more than 3-4 hours to know 99% of the relevant stuff) and then spend maybe an hour or two studying recent trade history, draft trade history, etc. and everything becomes way more enjoyable IMO because then you know what is possible, what is realistic, etc.

As opposed to fans who know nothing about it and then whine when their brilliant ideas dont happen and its usually because it wasnt legal and/or realistic. Just my 2 cents.

[pelafanatic]

I still don't get the infatuation with Dieng. I'd rather take a swing on Sochan than Dieng. Just as much upside and already great to elite at certain things, so his floor is much higher. Dieng doesn't have the strength, touch or explosiveness to be a good finisher around the rim. The games he did well that raised his stock were the last 13 games of the season for the New Zealand Breakers and they went 1-11 in those 12 games. I think Dieng has about a 98% bust potential. Now if we traded back with Charlotte for 13 and 15 and got Dieng and Sochan or something like that, it would be much easier to accept. But just walking away from this draft with Dieng would feel like such a wasted opportunity.

I don?t think Sochan is elite at anything right now other than size for his position, and that?s only if he?s a 4. He?s not what people think he is yet. He could get there, sure, but I think Dieng is just as likely to reach his 80% outcome

[pelafanatic]

Just my two cents, but with how much all fans love trades, the offseason, etc..... I think all fans should spend WAY more time learning the CBA than studying "film" of prospects, typing opinions on message boards, etc. Learn the CBA (shouldnt take more than 3-4 hours to know 99% of the relevant stuff) and then spend maybe an hour or two studying recent trade history, draft trade history, etc. and everything becomes way more enjoyable IMO because then you know what is possible, what is realistic, etc.

As opposed to fans who know nothing about it and then whine when their brilliant ideas dont happen and its usually because it wasnt legal and/or realistic. Just my 2 cents.

I read documents for a living. I have no interest in doing it in my spare time. I do this for fun

[MichaelMcNamara]

Yeah, thats my point. I promise that it makes it more fun when you know all the rules. Imagine playing your favorite board game with just a vague understanding of the rules. Could be fun, sure. But then you really love it when you know all the ins and outs and strategies, etc.

[Upper Decker]

I read documents for a living. I have no interest in doing it in my spare time. I do this for fun

I agree.

The MLE, the TPE, the luxury tax, the trade exceptions...no thanks. I like to watch basketball. The transactional aspects are fun, but not my focus. I don't have any desire to do math other than to do some subtraction to find out who's in the lead and by how much.

[hornetsrebirth]

I agree.

The MLE, the TPE, the luxury tax, the trade exceptions...no thanks. I like to watch basketball. The transactional aspects are fun, but not my focus. I don't have any desire to do math other than to do some subtraction to find out who's in the lead and by how much.

there is a contingent of people on this board who like this stuff much more than watching the Pelicans play basketball.

[neitzelbaby12]

Just my two cents, but with how much all fans love trades, the offseason, etc..... I think all fans should spend WAY more time learning the CBA than studying "film" of prospects, typing opinions on message boards, etc. Learn the CBA (shouldnt take more than 3-4 hours to know 99% of the relevant stuff) and then spend maybe an hour or two studying recent trade history, draft trade history, etc. and everything becomes way more enjoyable IMO because then you know what is possible, what is realistic, etc.

As opposed to fans who know nothing about it and then whine when their brilliant ideas dont happen and its usually because it wasnt legal and/or realistic. Just my 2 cents.

Completely agree with this. A buddy got into the team when we drafted Zion and I've had to explain to him why I don't entertain most off season moves I see on social media, they dont work cap wise!

I could never sit down and read it but when coming up with scenarios, I double check with the CBA FAQ. Also following smart cap guys on Twitter (Larry Coon, Pincus, the guy who started earlybirdrights then got hired by Klutch) to learn the basics and listening to smart Pels guys who understand the cap helps alot. Shamit and 42 are prob the only ones who get into the nitty gritty but a decent amount understand the basics now.

Edit: Also definitely there are people who enjoy playing fake GM rather than watching the games, that used to be me. I view it similarly to the eye test vs analytics debate. There's no exact right way but a mix of both is best.

[pelafanatic]

I'm fairly savvy with the majority of the rules based on past experiences in studying contracts, etc. Have a firm understanding of the RFA rules, sign and trades, TPEs, luxury tax dynamics, etc. For whatever reason I never knew the MLE had to be multi year

[pelafanatic]

Now MyBookie had Keegan Murray as the favorite to be the 8th pick. Odds for 8th pick are currently:

Murray +110
Sharpe +190
Ivey +300
Daniels +1100
Griffin +2900
Mathurin +2900
Davis +3900
Sochan +10000

Still makes no sense to me. I think of the guys listed, the three "most likely" to be the pick based on these odds are the three that probably won't be there. Mathurin is the most likely, followed by Daniels, then some order of Davis, Griffin and Sochan. I almost feel like this is free money.

Yea just double checked and I think that's an error in their system. You should go ahead and bet money on Daniels and Mathurin before they pull it

Those are almost the exact odds Draftkings has for the 5th overall, which makes way more sense

[Upper Decker]

there is a contingent of people on this board who like this stuff much more than watching the Pelicans play basketball.

I try not to judge those people. Let them have their fun the way they see fit.

[hornetsrebirth]

I try not to judge those people. Let them have their fun the way they see fit.

When they start rooting for the Pelicans to lose in the post season I have to draw the line.

[RUFshreve]

Yea just double checked and I think that's an error in their system. You should go ahead and bet money on Daniels and Mathurin before they pull it

Those are almost the exact odds Draftkings has for the 5th overall, which makes way more sense

If it's an oversight, it's one they've made for over a week now. Because those odds have been up for over a week and hit one deadline, so they went down for a day then they put them back up and extended the betting for another week. So if it's an oversight, which based on the odds does make the most sense, then yeah someone has been screwing up multiple times for over a week.

And I already put money on Daniels and Mathurin. I did as soon as I saw it. Unfortunately they limit you to $25 per player, but still that's like $15 to win $725 if Mathurin is our pick at 8.

[Century City]

Just my two cents, but with how much all fans love trades, the offseason, etc..... I think all fans should spend WAY more time learning the CBA than studying "film" of prospects, typing opinions on message boards, etc. Learn the CBA (shouldnt take more than 3-4 hours to know 99% of the relevant stuff) and then spend maybe an hour or two studying recent trade history, draft trade history, etc. and everything becomes way more enjoyable IMO because then you know what is possible, what is realistic, etc.

As opposed to fans who know nothing about it and then whine when their brilliant ideas dont happen and its usually because it wasnt legal and/or realistic. Just my 2 cents.

Agreed. I was the capologist going back to the pre katrina days. Admittedly, I've lost my touch a bit as I haven't brushed up on the most recent cba that was ratified in 2017 but I still have an above average knowledge being that the rules haven't changed that drastically. But the premise of what you're saying is correct. If you know what can or cannot happen, it's much less frustrating and you're not in the dark.

The most frustrating thing from a fan perspective is talk radio. These people are the absolute worst when it comes to the cap and cba rules. They constantly give wrong info to the callers and listeners which just messes things up more. I get it. They are right brain oriented journalists who flopped in math. No problem there but if they don't know what they're talking about, they should just shut up and have a capologist join the show to help them.

[RUFshreve]

So, do you think Sochan has a higher floor AND a higher ceiling that Dieng? Because I dont. Floor for sure. Median outcome, probably. But I think the ceiling is clearly higher with Dieng because of the ballhandling and shooting off the dribble/self creation aspects. People compare Sochan's playmaking to Draymond, which is fine, but that is still a very dependent type of playmaker. Meanwhile, I would say Dieng's playmaking is more prime Batum or a bigger prime Mike Miller.

Pels are very comfortable redshirting the pick for a year and developing whoever the pick is, knowing they might not ever get a chance to swing on a prospect with a ceiling like this again. They can draft for floor or median outcome in future drafts. They are thinking ceiling with Dieng.

The more I dig into him, the more red flags I see.

Forget just the playmaking aspects, I would say that Draymond as Sochan's ceiling seems about right. So say Batum is Dieng's ceiling, because Batum also isn't very explosive, crafty or strong but he is long and can create for others, while also being a decent shooter and defender. That seems to be the ceiling for Dieng. And those are all things people project he could become good at, because he's not really good at any of that right now. So yeah, I'd say Sochan's ceiling is higher because Draymond is a better player than prime Batum.

But even ignoring their absolute ceiling, I think in 99/100 universes, Sochan will have a better and longer career than Dieng. So will Johnny Davis, so will Dyson Daniels, etc, etc.. Dieng's lack of explosiveness, touch and strength are kinda killing his potential in every aspect of the game that people point to as the reasons to take him in the top 10. He's a tall, long guy that has smooth handles. That's it. That's all he is right now. Everything else is potential. Nothing you can point to that translates right now. And I get that they don't care about anything translating this year and for the most part I agree with that, but with things like touch and explosion, you either have it or you don't. He could get stronger, but that's about the only way he can improve his finishing abilities. He still will likely never be a good or even average finisher. So he needs to become elite at the other stuff. Now we're talking about all those other skills getting exponentially better before his rookie deal is up. Just seems like EVERYTHING would have to go absolutely perfect for Dieng to be a better pick than any of the other guards/wings we could target in our range. I think Dieng has higher bust potential than basically anyone in the mix to be a lottery pick, except for Griffin.

[pelafanatic]

Draymond and Sochan aren't on the same universe when it comes to basketball IQ. What is Draymond without an elite IQ? That's the major question I have for Sochan because he's not going to guard 1-3 unless its on a switch, especially as he gets bigger in the NBA. He's not a shot blocker. I'm fairly certain he's an NBA center long term. How valuable is a 6'9 center who can put the ball on the ground a little bit and switch defensively? Is he a less explosive Bam Adebayo? That could be a valuable player I guess

[PELICANSFAN]

If it's an oversight, it's one they've made for over a week now. Because those odds have been up for over a week and hit one deadline, so they went down for a day then they put them back up and extended the betting for another week. So if it's an oversight, which based on the odds does make the most sense, then yeah someone has been screwing up multiple times for over a week.

And I already put money on Daniels and Mathurin. I did as soon as I saw it. Unfortunately they limit you to $25 per player, but still that's like $15 to win $725 if Mathurin is our pick at 8.

I see some reviews of that site that say they have cancelled winning bets for "internal errors." Would not be surprised if that happens with this.

[RUFshreve]

Draymond and Sochan aren't on the same universe when it comes to basketball IQ. What is Draymond without an elite IQ? That's the major question I have for Sochan because he's not going to guard 1-3 unless its on a switch, especially as he gets bigger in the NBA. He's not a shot blocker. I'm fairly certain he's an NBA center long term. How valuable is a 6'9 center who can put the ball on the ground a little bit and switch defensively? Is he a less explosive Bam Adebayo? That could be a valuable player I guess

From all reports on him, Sochan has an incredibly high BBall IQ. It's one of his biggest strengths. Incredible intelligent player. And like draymond he can effectively guard 1-5. His defensive potential is off the charts.

[RUFshreve]

I see some reviews of that site that say they have cancelled winning bets for "internal errors." Would not be surprised if that happens with this.

Will be highly pissed if that happens. I've used MyBookie for a couple years and never had a bet canceled. But like I said, they have had it listed for the 8th pick odds for over a week now. Seems like someone would've caught it by now if it was an oversight.

[pelafanatic]

From all reports on him, Sochan has an incredibly high BBall IQ. It's one of his biggest strengths. Incredible intelligent player. And like draymond he can effectively guard 1-5. His defensive potential is off the charts.

I've watched alot of Sochan. The IQ is fine. Draymond has a top 5 bball IQ of all time.

[RUFshreve]

I've watched alot of Sochan. The IQ is fine. Draymond has a top 5 bball IQ of all time.

Now he might, sure. But he didn't after one year in college, which is where Sochan is right now in his development. With coaches and scouts praising Sochan for his understanding of the game and his IQ, saying that "Sochan isn't in the same universe as Draymond when it comes to IQ" is some hyperbolic nonsense.

[pelafanatic]

Now he might, sure. But he didn't after one year in college, which is where Sochan is right now in his development. With coaches and scouts praising Sochan for his understanding of the game and his IQ, saying that "Sochan isn't in the same universe as Draymond when it comes to IQ" is some hyperbolic nonsense.

Lol you can't project a player to reach Draymond Green level IQ. That's like projecting Benny Mathurin to reach Steph Curry level shooting.

[pelafanatic]

Comparing players to Draymond Green should be banned from every NBA Draft conversation forever

[RUFshreve]

Lol you can't project a player to reach Draymond Green level IQ. That's like projecting Benny Mathurin to reach Steph Curry level shooting.

I don't think anyone did project that. I said that Draymond as a ceiling for Sochan made sense because they are similar players.