Jaxson Haye's next contract

[NMThreeMVP]

I've seen a lot of speculation that Jaxson won't be worth his next contract. But I haven't seen anybody write or speak to what they think he would get offered as a RFA.

I think on the high end the next contract looks similar to Larry Nance and Richaun Holmes 2nd contracts, but is someone going to offer him that as an RFA? Is there a realistic possibility that Jax improves some this season, and can be kept by the Pels for basically the MLE? Is there a world where he exceeds that value over the next 4 years?

I think the Jaxson decision is so interesting for this team, even though I know most of Pels twitter Pels message board folks are out on him.

[AusPel]

Best I got is that some bigs take a long time to develop

[As I See It]

Very few were as high on JAX as I was; his physical skills were just that impressive. Many times in the first two years I proclaimed that he was one of three players on the roster who I deemed 'untouchable'**.

My view today???

The light's on but nobody's home.

**DISCLAIMER: I did say when he was drafted that he needed to spend a year in Erie to 'learn the game'. So the team didn't do him any favors in the beginning and he didn't begin playing the four until this past year.

[MichaelMcNamara]

If you set the over/under at the MLE number, I would POUND the under

My guess is that the year after next, he doesnt get an offer and plays on the QO. Then, someone takes a 2/15 type flyer on him after that and the 2nd year isnt even fully guaranteed

[AD-AT]

It's such an interesting situation because he showed promise in a new role after the AS break, but then when we committed to him in that role in the play in/playoffs he completely disappeared.

If he wasn't a former top 10 pick what would your offer be?

[MichaelMcNamara]

I wouldnt make that kid an offer. Of any kind. Come in next year ready to work. Year after, I will tender the QO. And then go from there whenever I have to make a decision next.

But the odds of Jaxson being on this team 2 years from now is like 50 to 1 in my opinion. The only question is: Does he just leave or will they, at some point, get some value for him in a trade

[DroopyDawg]

I don't think Jax will improve his IQ over the next season or 2, so the only way for him to improve his value is if he becomes a knock-down shooter. Which I doubt, but he has become a better shooter.

I wouldn't offer him a contract either. Give Nance a new deal and put him in Jax's role.

[RUFshreve]

I think people are really hard on Jax. Dude is 21 years old and made alot of improvements this year, after moving to the 4. He only had one good quarter in the playoffs, but look who he was facing.

It just doesn't make sense to me that when we drafted him, everyone was saying "BE PATIENT. GIVE HIM TIME. IT'S GONNA TAKE AWHILE FOR HIM TO REACH HIS POTENTIAL, BECAUSE HE'S HARDLY PLAYED MUCH ORGANIZED BASKETBALL"

And now those same people after two years "THIS IS WHO HE IS. LET'S MOVE ON."

I haven't given up on Jaxson. I think he can still be a part of the core of this team going forward. I doubt he's ever a starter, but I could see him developing into a good third big. Do we want to give him the time it's gonna take? That's the question. The fans seem to not want to. I wonder what the FO thinks at this point?

[MichaelMcNamara]

It is really, really, really, really rare that a guy is taken in the lotto and gets a 2nd contract with the team that drafted him if he is not already a very good starter or better by the end of the contract. Just the way it is

I think it is one thing to say that Jaxson wont ever be a good player in the NBA, and another to say that he wont be it for the Pelicans. I would bet a ton of money on the latter. But I do think he will have some good NBA moments and might even become a solid starter for a few years. But history says it will be for someone else. As for what the team thinks - they are open to moving him but dont expect very good offers. They know they wont come to terms on an extension because his agent is talking 12-16 mil per year range and that would be stupid to hand him. So, they are fine keeping him the next two years or trading him if they get an offer, but basically they are roster building as if he isnt on the team and whatever they get from him the next year to two is gravy

[fullcourtpress]

If the pels still want Jaxson around after the sample size we have witnessed jaxson play; it would speak volumes for the type of person and teammate he is, aka known as the things we as fans cannot see.

what would growth look like next year for us to still covet him? 14 and 7?

[redrum]

If the pels still want Jaxson around after the sample size we have witnessed jaxson play; it would speak volumes for the type of person and teammate he is, aka known as the things we as fans cannot see.

what would growth look like next year for us to still covet him? 14 and 7?

14 and 7 ? With Zion back ? Not a chance!
Without Zion, maybe, but still trade him at his peak, which is probably now.

[MichaelMcNamara]

Zion back and Nance getting more minutes too. I can't see Hayes as anything more than a 9th man to start the year. Sure, injuries will happen and he might get a spot start or two. But this past year was his chance to really show something consistently and he did the same thing he always does - a few glimpses combined with a ton of nothing.

As a reserve, he played 15 mins and put up 8 and 3.5. I would expect something similar. His QO, as a result, will be around 7 mil and thats worth offering to keep a solid reserve around for a year, and to have an expiring contract to put in a deal. But if Trey really is taller and starts getting a lot of backup 4 minutes, in addition to his backup 3 minutes, Hayes might not even get 15 mpg.

[hornetsrebirth]

Jaxson Hayes is a speculative asset, its too soon to tell what kind of player he will turn into. He has great size, impressive mobility and agility, and a natural shooting touch. What he doesn't have is good b-ball IQ and instincts. It could be that Jaxson never catches on to the mental aspect of the game. But there is plenty of reason to believe he can develop in that department. Despite having 3 years in the NBA now, he is still less experienced and younger than our rookies Jose Alvarado and Herb Jones. He comes from a football background, transitioned to basketball late in life and is still only 21 years old. The Pelicans knew (or should have known) what they were getting in Hayes, someone with elite natural talent and not much basketball maturity. His ceiling as a player is very high, the question that no one knows is how close he can get to that ceiling.

[AusPel]

Jaxson Hayes is a speculative asset, its too soon to tell what kind of player he will turn into. He has great size, impressive mobility and agility, and a natural shooting touch. What he doesn't have is good b-ball IQ and instincts. It could be that Jaxson never catches on to the mental aspect of the game. But there is plenty of reason to believe he can develop in that department. Despite having 3 years in the NBA now, he is still less experienced and younger than our rookies Jose Alvarado and Herb Jones. He comes from a football background, transitioned to basketball late in life and is still only 21 years old. The Pelicans knew (or should have known) what they were getting in Hayes, someone with elite natural talent and not much basketball maturity. His ceiling as a player is very high, the question that no one knows is how close he can get to that ceiling.

He is a fascinating case study, to be sure

[ColoradoCajun]

I don't think Jax will improve his IQ over the next season or 2, so the only way for him to improve his value is if he becomes a knock-down shooter. Which I doubt, but he has become a better shooter.

I wouldn't offer him a contract either. Give Nance a new deal and put him in Jax's role.

Jaxson was keeping the spot warm for Zion. Nance will just get his normal 6-7th man role.

[ColoradoCajun]

If the pels still want Jaxson around after the sample size we have witnessed jaxson play; it would speak volumes for the type of person and teammate he is, aka known as the things we as fans cannot see.

what would growth look like next year for us to still covet him? 14 and 7?

Except he has not been that stand up guy off the court. Too many rumors of him partying around town plus his California troubles.

[ColoradoCajun]

Zion back and Nance getting more minutes too. I can't see Hayes as anything more than a 9th man to start the year. Sure, injuries will happen and he might get a spot start or two. But this past year was his chance to really show something consistently and he did the same thing he always does - a few glimpses combined with a ton of nothing.

As a reserve, he played 15 mins and put up 8 and 3.5. I would expect something similar. His QO, as a result, will be around 7 mil and thats worth offering to keep a solid reserve around for a year, and to have an expiring contract to put in a deal. But if Trey really is taller and starts getting a lot of backup 4 minutes, in addition to his backup 3 minutes, Hayes might not even get 15 mpg.

Pretty sure it is just over $9 million. Which is about what he should get on the open market unless he develops a shot.

[MichaelMcNamara]

It won’t be, because he won’t meet starter criteria

[RUFshreve]

It is really, really, really, really rare that a guy is taken in the lotto and gets a 2nd contract with the team that drafted him if he is not already a very good starter or better by the end of the contract. Just the way it is

I think it is one thing to say that Jaxson wont ever be a good player in the NBA, and another to say that he wont be it for the Pelicans. I would bet a ton of money on the latter. But I do think he will have some good NBA moments and might even become a solid starter for a few years. But history says it will be for someone else. As for what the team thinks - they are open to moving him but dont expect very good offers. They know they wont come to terms on an extension because his agent is talking 12-16 mil per year range and that would be stupid to hand him. So, they are fine keeping him the next two years or trading him if they get an offer, but basically they are roster building as if he isnt on the team and whatever they get from him the next year to two is gravy

Now that's ridiculous. Please tell me they don't really expect that number. I was thinking like $6-7 mil per year for 2 or 3 years.

[MichaelMcNamara]

DeAndre Hunter is asking 20-25. I am telling you, this is the issue. The second contract sucks unless the guy is a sure thing or a dud. In between is the worst

[DarkHornet]

DeAndre Hunter is asking 20-25. I am telling you, this is the issue. The second contract sucks unless the guy is a sure thing or a dud. In between is the worst

So, given this issue with second contracts for guys who are not established players by then, does it ever make sense to draft a project guy, particularly in the first round? When you draft a project, how long are you looking to invest in that project before you have to cut bait? Does "project" really mean "year-three guy" and anything beyond that is just a wasted pick?

[MichaelMcNamara]

So, given this issue with second contracts for guys who are not established players by then, does it ever make sense to draft a project guy, particularly in the first round? When you draft a project, how long are you looking to invest in that project before you have to cut bait? Does "project" really mean "year-three guy" and anything beyond that is just a wasted pick?

You know by year 3. Was Giannis an MVP in year 3? No, but you knew he was going to be something great. Like I said, even the rawest of guys...you know by the end of year 3. The only guy I can really think of that barely showed anything by end of year 3 and turned into a fringe All Star or better was Mike Conley. There might be others, but he comes to mind.

But you know. And not that all the others will just stink. Like I said, Jax will be a fine player somewhere else -- much like Mo Bomba will be. But because of the way contracts work, you cant give Bomba that same value contract if you are the Magic as you can if he hits free agency and some random team gives him a flyer. Its a long article, but to make it as short as possible -- when you have a guys rights, you can give him anything and when you can give a guy 20 mil and offer him 5, its an insult. When all a team can give is 5 and they give 5, that team believes in you! Its dumb, but I promise you, its how guys see it.

Yes, you take projects. Large upside guys. And they wont be done developing by end of year 3, but you will know their trajectory. Jaxson will be a role player, not a star. And that has a place in the league. History just says it will be with another team.

[MichaelMcNamara]

You take Ousmane Dieng, and no he wont be a sure fire beast by end of year 3. But if he is ascending (at a much faster pace than Jaxson), and skills are clearly growing, IQ is building, etc... you give him a huge extension

Those who seemingly believe in Jaxson point to when he is 'not terrible'. He is never great. He just sometimes is not a train wreck. But he hasnt developed off the dribble moves. He doesnt talk a ton on D or make great rotations. His defensive rebounding hasnt grown to match his size and athleticism. He has made minor, minor improvements in a few areas and when he was put in very specific lineups, at a very specific position, he played solid more often than he played bad. And cool, that is a guy who deserves a roster spot. But when his agent is talking 15-ish million, you gotta say thanks but no thanks

[johnpagenola]

Those who seemingly believe in Jaxson point to ...

As one of those who seemingly believed in Jaxson this was because we had a max figure of $9M per year in mind, with some of us going as low as $6M. At $12M-$16M GTFO.

[DarkHornet]

As one of those who seemingly believed in Jaxson this was because we had a max figure of $9M per year in mind, with some of us going as low as $6M. At $12M-$16M GTFO.

This is a good point. If you can hold onto Jaxson at a reasonable price tag, is there any reason not to? MM said himself that he is most likely to develop into a role player. There's really no reason that he couldn't be that role player for us, rather than another team. That being said, the big "if" is if he has a reasonable price tag. If he's more than 2/$15 or so, then you just let another team take their swing.

I suppose the counter would be that he's taking minutes and a roster spot from us taking another swing at finding that star player.