2022-23 Offseason Thread

[Pelicanidae]

I think it is the pure joy of liking where you work. Its a perfect time right now -- ceiling seems limitless but expectations arent really high. That is a fun place to work.

I will be curious if they can keep this same happiness and vibes when expectations rise. Like 18-20 months ago, it was the same vibe in Phoenix. They were all so happy. Even after the Finals loss, they were all on cloud nine. Everybody loved each other. But when expectations rise up, and you fall short, the finger pointing begins. Players want to do more. Guys dont want to go to the bench for the good of the team, etc.

Culture is such a fickle thing, and like most things, it ebbs and flows due to the relation with expectations

Also, they didn't offer a max to their max-tier player due their extension, despite him being an evident part of why they had even got to the Finals in the first place. I think that played a significant role in the souring of things. Watching Ayton's media stuff the other day was painful. He is not happy. I think that whole debacle played far more of a role in the discontent surrounding Phoenix than expectations did.

Luckily, we paid all of our guys except I guess Jax, and Jax isn't in the same kind of role as Ayton where he can demand as much or upset things as much. If you're Phoenix, you're kind of forced into playing Ayton and doing so for significant minutes if you want any success, whereas Jax isn't that kind of make-it-or-break-it piece for us, so we're not under the gun nearly so much.

[AusPel]

Also, they didn't offer a max to their max-tier player due their extension, despite him being an evident part of why they had even got to the Finals in the first place. I think that played a significant role in the souring of things. Watching Ayton's media stuff the other day was painful. He is not happy. I think that whole debacle played far more of a role in the discontent surrounding Phoenix than expectations did.

Luckily, we paid all of our guys except I guess Jax, and Jax isn't in the same kind of role as Ayton where he can demand as much or upset things as much. If you're Phoenix, you're kind of forced into playing Ayton and doing so for significant minutes if you want any success, whereas Jax isn't that kind of make-it-or-break-it piece for us, so we're not under the gun nearly so much.

If Sarver was gone a year ago, he likely gets the full max

[Eman5805]

Also, Zion must make First Team All NBA for the Rose Rule to kick in. He wont. Griff really nailed that deal

It's a win-win. A 1st team Zion is surely an MVP candidate which should also mean we're probably a 3 seed at worst.

[Pelicanidae]

It's a win-win. A 1st team Zion is surely an MVP candidate which should also mean we're probably a 3 seed at worst.

It's kind of a shame that you walk into some seasons knowing who All NBA guys are going to be regardless of their performance (shy of something catastrophic).

For example, Lebron James is All NBA this year. I don't know if it will be 1st, 2nd, or 3rd team, but as long as he qualifies in terms of games played and can average 20/5/5, he's making All NBA. Doesn't matter how those numbers are gained, doesn't matter if he's efficient or not, he's getting that spot because he is Lebron James.

Same with Kevin Durant, same with Joel Embiid, same with Kawhi Leonard, same with Steph Curry. You can just pencil those guys in: 95% chance of being all NBA, before the year starts.

That impacts someone like Zion a lot. Particularly as a forward, the things he would have to do to get a First Team award are insane. He'd have to average 30/10/5 on 68%TS and have a few 40pt+ games, playing at least 65 games, for it to even become a conversation.

[MichaelMcNamara]

Also, they didn't offer a max to their max-tier player due their extension, despite him being an evident part of why they had even got to the Finals in the first place. I think that played a significant role in the souring of things. Watching Ayton's media stuff the other day was painful. He is not happy. I think that whole debacle played far more of a role in the discontent surrounding Phoenix than expectations did.

Luckily, we paid all of our guys except I guess Jax, and Jax isn't in the same kind of role as Ayton where he can demand as much or upset things as much. If you're Phoenix, you're kind of forced into playing Ayton and doing so for significant minutes if you want any success, whereas Jax isn't that kind of make-it-or-break-it piece for us, so we're not under the gun nearly so much.

Ayton would be similar to Herb IMO. If we get to extension time with him and pass and let someone else dictate his market and then just give that. Herb is the guy who could eventually really put us in a tough place. Imagine he becomes first team All Defense and is fine on offense, but inconsistent and nothing great. And his market is 25-30 mil. Thats a tough decision to make for your 3rd or 4th best player. That would put us into a similar situation as Phoenix was with Ayton

[MichaelMcNamara]

I shouldnt have said Rose Rule, I should have said 30%. Kind of the same, but not totally. And yes, like I talked about in the summer, you can negotiate the percentage the guy gets based on certain qualifiers -- like the Siakam deal which I mentioned in the post where we were all debating which things in the Zion contract were the most important for Griff to negotiate. Many in that thread, just said 'give him the deal' - whatever deal he wants. I said I would negotiate for the 5 years no option, and the modified less than 30%. Griff did both those AND got injury protections. He was even more shrewd than I would have been.

For a refresher, you can re-read the thread here:

https://www.pelicansreport.com/showt...light=contract

[coreylaron]

It’s kind of odd he goes from fringe hotseat to killing it in regards to Griff. From Stephen Adams extension to pretty much flawless offseason is mind boggling

[Pelicanidae]

Ayton would be similar to Herb IMO. If we get to extension time with him and pass and let someone else dictate his market and then just give that. Herb is the guy who could eventually really put us in a tough place. Imagine he becomes first team All Defense and is fine on offense, but inconsistent and nothing great. And his market is 25-30 mil. Thats a tough decision to make for your 3rd or 4th best player. That would put us into a similar situation as Phoenix was with Ayton

I'm not even arguing whether it was the right choice or not. I'm just saying I think it played more of a role in the discontent in Phoenix than ''expectations'' did.

[MichaelMcNamara]

I'm not even arguing whether it was the right choice or not. I'm just saying I think it played more of a role in the discontent in Phoenix than ''expectations'' did.

You are assuming expectations is just win and loss.

Expectations can be how much a player expects to get the ball. How much a team expects that player to improve on D because he gets older. How much a player and an agent expect him to be offered in extension talks.

All frustration and disconnect is a simple formula of expectations vs reality. Right now, the Pelicans players are just happy to be in the playoff hunt. Will do whatever it takes and sacrifice to win more. After two straight years of 50+ wins and 2nd round exits, that wont be enough. And they will have different beliefs internally about why they havent broken through. One guy will think its because he should have gotten the ball more, another will think its because Y player doesnt rotate properly on D, another guy will think he is better than X player, yet X player makes more money and on and on and on. It is so extremely rare that things stay like this, because humans have this fundamental flaw where our happiness is tied into expectation of outcome, not just outcome in a vacuum

[AusPel]

Expectations and entitlement are also fairly closely entwined. A speculative second rounder wouldn't have the same entitlement as a number 1 pick of a Finals team

[MichaelMcNamara]

Agree- nothing is an exact comp. The overall point is that you can point to hundreds of good vibes scenarios like this in NBA history. The number that stay like that are less than a half dozen. So, enjoy this now because it’s only a matter of time until the unnecessary drama comes

[The Dud]

Ayton would be similar to Herb IMO. If we get to extension time with him and pass and let someone else dictate his market and then just give that. Herb is the guy who could eventually really put us in a tough place. Imagine he becomes first team All Defense and is fine on offense, but inconsistent and nothing great. And his market is 25-30 mil. Thats a tough decision to make for your 3rd or 4th best player. That would put us into a similar situation as Phoenix was with Ayton

On Herb, I assume Pels will go out of their way this year, to try & figure out what Herb has to offer on the offensive end. By the end of this season, they should have a fairly decent idea. Then they can "act accordingly"...based on whether they think Herb is a one trick pony...or something much, much more.

[MichaelMcNamara]

They are planning to have him run more sets and be a mix of Draymond and Ben Simmons in the half court. He will be a RFA in the 4th season with a tiny cap hold. It might benefit the team to wait until that summer to get something done, and I am so curious who will have higher perceived value at that point -- Him or Trey

[AusPel]

Agree- nothing is an exact comp. The overall point is that you can point to hundreds of good vibes scenarios like this in NBA history. The number that stay like that are less than a half dozen. So, enjoy this now because it?s only a matter of time until the unnecessary drama comes

High drama, low drama. Goldilocks zone drama.

One thing is constant: Pels. Get. Drama. Since 2002 and the move, it's been non stop.

I could probably list 20 crazy events, just off of the top of my head.

Man, I'd hate to follow one of those- nothing much really happens around here teams

How boring would that be?

Are we not supposed to be entertained?

Not to play down Hurricane Katrina and diminish the suffering it brought, still to this day

[The Dud]

They are planning to have him run more sets and be a mix of Draymond and Ben Simmons in the half court. He will be a RFA in the 4th season with a tiny cap hold. It might benefit the team to wait until that summer to get something done, and I am so curious who will have higher perceived value at that point -- Him or Trey

If things worked out well for Herb offensively, I thought he might even slide past Mikal Bridges as far as overall value is concerned. But I just saw that the Suns are about to try & expand Mikal's offensive game and stop just having him at the 3-pt line. So, guess it'll be a while before I can give my "official opinion" on the Herb vs Mikal discussion.

[MichaelMcNamara]

Its interesting to look back at teams with 3 scorers like the Pels have in Zion, BI and CJ. Several teams have guys right around the 20ppg mark, but few have two guys in the 25ppg range and another in or around the 20s. As most would guess, the KD Warriors had this, with 2016-17 being an interesting year to look at. Curry had 25.3, Durant 25.1, and Klay 22. That team was first in Offensive rating and average 116 points per game. I dont think the Pels do that, but even if they do, look at the next guys in scoring on that team:

Draymond - 10.2
Iggy - 7.6

Nobody else above 7ppg. Ian Clark was actually their 5th leading scorer at 6.8 per game!

Now, the Pels will have Jonas too. Unless CJ sacrifices big time, how does anybody else average double digits? I don't know how Herb gets more than 6 shots a game, and think it will be closer to 4.5 or 5. I think we are looking at a 7ppg player, which should deflate his FA market. I dont care how good you are on D, you aren't getting huge money averaging 7ppg.

[The Dud]

Its interesting to look back at teams with 3 scorers like the Pels have in Zion, BI and CJ. Several teams have guys right around the 20ppg mark, but few have two guys in the 25ppg range and another in or around the 20s. As most would guess, the KD Warriors had this, with 2016-17 being an interesting year to look at. Curry had 25.3, Durant 25.1, and Klay 22. That team was first in Offensive rating and average 116 points per game. I dont think the Pels do that, but even if they do, look at the next guys in scoring on that team:

Draymond - 10.2
Iggy - 7.6

Nobody else above 7ppg. Ian Clark was actually their 5th leading scorer at 6.8 per game!

Now, the Pels will have Jonas too. Unless CJ sacrifices big time, how does anybody else average double digits? I don't know how Herb gets more than 6 shots a game, and think it will be closer to 4.5 or 5. I think we are looking at a 7ppg player, which should deflate his FA market. I dont care how good you are on D, you aren't getting huge money averaging 7ppg.

Yep...scoring gonna be spread pretty thinly after the top 3 for sure. Assuming we're serious contenders, I could see quite a bit of "load management" for those top 3. I'm gonna guess at Zion..24 pts. BI...22 & CJ around 17. Val will probably take a bit of a hit also, offensively...down to around 14 or so. After those 4...it's just a guess who might be next on any given night. I think we'll run quite a bit more this year & given no "take foul" this year, I could see Herb at around 10 per game. Hopefully, gonna be some HOT nights, when Trey kicks in 15-20.

[MichaelMcNamara]

The first year of ascension, teams rarely 'load manage.' This is the year where they go all out for as many wins as they can get, go all out every night, etc. Teams start load managing in the years after, and now with the play in, I think we see it even less because you gotta get into that top 6 and there are 7-9 really good teams. I think Jonas's minutes will come down from last year, but I see BI and CJ playing more games and as many mpg as they did last year (BI played 55, CJ played 62 total, and both played about 34 mpg for us)

If all guys were healthy for all 82 games, my guess would be they give CJ 4-5 rest games, BI gets 2 or 3, Zion gets 7 or 8. But when they play, I expect them to play in the 33-35 range

[msusousaphone]

Shut this thread down!

It's preseason game day.

Big Trouble GIFfrom Big GIFs

[MichaelMcNamara]

Uh, I got bad news for ya.....

[ColoradoCajun]

Pretty sure the team is practicing in NO right now. Like this very moment. Gameday is tomorrow.

[ramsters60]

Uh, I got bad news for ya.....

oh, come on... he obviously meant preseason preday game.....

[MichaelMcNamara]

I can only respond to what you write. Not what you intended to write

[MichaelMcNamara]

They officially gave Butler the two way. Our of the three (Seabaron and Izaiah too), he is the one they like the most. Eventually, EJ will get a two way or part of the MLE. If it’s the former, Seabaron will be gone but I still think it is far more likely to be the latter

[PleaseWinPels]

They officially gave Butler the two way. Our of the three (Seabaron and Izaiah too), he is the one they like the most. Eventually, EJ will get a two way or part of the MLE. If it?s the former, Seabaron will be gone but I still think it is far more likely to be the latter

He's 19, 7'1, and shoots 40% from 3.

He might be a buck 70 soaking wet but there's only a few human beings at that height who can shoot like he can. Good use of the 2way. He's got serious potential if he can put on weight.