Herb going in the second round

[Freyfamilyreuni]

Has to be a huge indictment of NBA scouting as it currently exists.

The guy has tremendous measurables, height, wingspan, vertical, strength, athleticism.

The guy has tremendous intangibles, instincts, basketball iq, ect.

The guy has had a great college career, was SEC player of the year.

I get that his lack of a three point shot in college was a factor, but should this have been enough to drag him as far down as he got drafted?

It really seems that there is currently a stigma against guys who played out their college eligibility. Which is absurd. We got guys like Jaxson Hayes, who came into the NBA completely clueless and only started to get a hang of things as his rookie contract is getting near an expiration.

Then you got guys like Herb who's college career has basically put him ahead of a bunch of league guys who've been in the NBA for 3 to 4 years.

[Impose]

Yup, shooting is a real factor in scouting. But I also think general consensus is that offense > defense when picking prospects since the NBA is basically the softest league in the world where next to no defense is allowed unless its the playoffs.

[bradael]

It's not scouting. It's a number of factors. Even with how he's played thus far, I think most people still wouldn't ever peg him as being able to become a playoff team's #1 or 2 best player. A lot of teams draft for the higher risk/reward type of player that can make or break a franchise.

Age is also a major factor. Except in rare circumstances (most of the time due to injuries limiting playing time early), you are who you are going to be in the NBA by the time you are 24. Herb started the season 23. So you're looking at 1-2 years of growth over who he is currently.

There's also plenty of examples that are the opposite of Herb. Dominant players in college and did nothing in the NBA once they start going up against bigger and more athletic players. These even include players being taken high in the lottery.

[DarkHornet]

One thing I heard somewhere yesterday that makes a ton of sense is that for most young rookies, you are well into the second contract as they are just getting to their prime. With these older players, you are locked in cheap on rookie deals at the front end of their prime, and on their second contract for most of their prime. That's a huge selling point on older rookies that I hadn't considered until then.

If these guys are truly being undervalued, I'd be down with looking harder at these guys.

[Freyfamilyreuni]

It's not scouting. It's a number of factors. Even with how he's played thus far, I think most people still wouldn't ever peg him as being able to become a playoff team's #1 or 2 best player. A lot of teams draft for the higher risk/reward type of player that can make or break a franchise.

Age is also a major factor. Except in rare circumstances (most of the time due to injuries limiting playing time early), you are who you are going to be in the NBA by the time you are 24. Herb started the season 23. So you're looking at 1-2 years of growth over who he is currently.

There's also plenty of examples that are the opposite of Herb. Dominant players in college and did nothing in the NBA once they start going up against bigger and more athletic players. These even include players being taken high in the lottery.

I mean of course. There are tons of guys who excelled in college, but either didn't have the size or athleticism to succeed in the NBA. But clearly those aren't factors for Herb.

[ml wave]

Age is also a major factor. Except in rare circumstances (most of the time due to injuries limiting playing time early), you are who you are going to be in the NBA by the time you are 24. Herb started the season 23. So you're looking at 1-2 years of growth over who he is currently.

I find this notion silly (not talking to you, but the about widespread idea that you cite). I know that improvement from 18/19-22 can be exponential and I understand why teams prefer youth, but 22/23/24 is nowhere near a finished product. 30+ years ago when players stayed 4 years in college, did nobody improve once they got to the NBA?

[UNO Gracias]

I really hope that he doesn’t turn into JuJu 2.0.

[PELICANSFAN]

I really hope that he doesn’t turn into JuJu 2.0.

Why would he? Juju did not accomplish in his career what Herb has done in his rookie season.

[Pelicanidae]

What you have to remember is that Herb was a guy who everyone knew was going to be 23 in his rookie season, who couldn't shoot for most of his college career, shot mid-60% from the FT line in college, had a few injuries during his college career, and wasn't a primary on-ball guy.

All of those things are dings against you. Plus, his biggest strength in college was individual defense - which usually doesn't transfer that well to the NBA. Usually team defense is a better indicator, and while Herb was a very capable team defender in college he wasn't blowing the roof off everything with it.

The fact that he's improved so much as a 3pt shooter, taken a 20% jump in his FT%, while maintaining college level defensive effectiveness as a rookie, is statistically anomalous. He's weird, basically, in the kind of improvements he's made and how quickly he's made them.

[UNO Gracias]

Why would he? Juju did not accomplish in his career what Herb has done in his rookie season.

There was a lot of hope for Juju based off his rookie season, then point Juju happened.

[PELICANSFAN]

There was a lot of hope for Juju based off his rookie season, then point Juju happened.

To compare Juju's rookie season with Herb's is a massive stretch. They are not in the same universe.

[UNO Gracias]

We are living in the moment apparently, because Juju had a ton of buzz going into year 2.

[DarkHornet]

We are living in the moment apparently, because Juju had a ton of buzz going into year 2.

There's basketball IQ with Herb that is just not a great comparison to JuJu. I have a hard time seeing Herb forgetting how to play basketball in his 2nd year.

[neitzelbaby12]

Herb played 3.5x the total minutes on much better numbers. Plus Herb is much older. I dont see that at all. Jose or Trey would make a little more sense, I cant imagine Herb not being a productive starter for the next 7+ years barring injury

[PELICANSFAN]

We are living in the moment apparently, because Juju had a ton of buzz going into year 2.

Not at all. There was never the buzz around Juju that there is around Herb. Juju played very sparingly as a rookie. I could maybe squint and see a comparison to the excitement of a Murphy progression to the hopes some had for Wright, but not Jones.

[SoCal4Pels]

What you have to remember is that Herb was a guy who everyone knew was going to be 23 in his rookie season, who couldn't shoot for most of his college career, shot mid-60% from the FT line in college, had a few injuries during his college career, and wasn't a primary on-ball guy.

All of those things are dings against you. Plus, his biggest strength in college was individual defense - which usually doesn't transfer that well to the NBA. Usually team defense is a better indicator, and while Herb was a very capable team defender in college he wasn't blowing the roof off everything with it.

The fact that he's improved so much as a 3pt shooter, taken a 20% jump in his FT%, while maintaining college level defensive effectiveness as a rookie, is statistically anomalous. He's weird, basically, in the kind of improvements he's made and how quickly he's made them.

Yeah. People have widely varying genetic dispositions towards learning/improving and work ethic. Take Rusell Westbrook: low-IQ player with a very poor work ethic. How do I know he has a poor work ethic despite him "playing hard every night"? Because if he had a strong work ethic and still displayed his horrendous shooting, handle, turnovers, defense, then his IQ would be so abysmal he wouldn't be able to dress himself in the morning.

So what can we learn from someone like Herb that is indeed a statistical anomaly which might provide hints about a players enhanced capabilities to improve? Perhaps being the son of a head coach? Did he have exceptional grades and/or standardized testing in school? What are his hobbies/interests outside of basketball? What are the education levels and vocations of his immediate family?

Reminds me of another extremely high-IQ guy who spent four years in college and which every GM thought was trash for years even while he was playing because they could not recognize his non-statistical contributions: https://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/15/m...Battier-t.html