To Playoffs or Not to Playoffs?

[MichaelMcNamara]

I like this analogy. It is ridiculous.

Its not fun to root for your team to lose, even if you *think* it is in their best interest. If we're not chasing fun, I don't know what sports fandom is all about.

Its delayed fun. Our thesis would be that you can get "30" fun this year or "25" fun this year - but if you take the "25" fun now you might get "80 or 90" in the future. Not all of us need instant gratification. In addition, you get fun for whatever you are rooting for. So, if I want us to lose vs LA, and am rooting for a pick, I could get fun from that. I could also get way more fun on May 17th and June 23rd than the universe where the team makes the playoffs.

Everybody has the same exact goal, some just see a path for more enjoyment by delaying instant gratification. They might be right, might be wrong with regard to their calculation but the logic behind it is sound.

[MichaelMcNamara]

Another thing I dont think the "playoff experience" advocators are giving full credit to is the experience from the play in games as quasi playoff games.

Lets flash back to 2018, final game of the season. Nuggets vs Wolves for the 8th spot. Game went down to the wire, playoff atmosphere. Wolves win. Both got great experience. What happened after that? Wolves go to playoffs, get smacked 4-1 by Houston. Get 20th pick, due to making the playoffs, get Josh Okogie. Next 3 years, they are GARBAGE 78-140 record, no playoff appearances, 3 coaches later, and now finally okay again.

Meanwhile, Nuggets lose the game but do get valuable win or go home experience. Get the 14th pick and select...Michael Porter, Jr. Go 147-80 over next three years, won 4 playoff series and got to a WC Finals.

Point is, you can get valuable experience from the whole 2nd half of the season being playoff pressure, having some play in games, AND get the more valuable assets. Those Laker games were playoff games. These play in games will have playoff level intesity. They are gonna get that stuff already.

[Taker597]

The Pelicans have had plenty of draft capital the past 10 years. What we havent had is success in the playoffs. If we had success our star players wouldnt always be clamoring to leave. The time to win is now. We have a good young team stocked with talent. Any draft pick we get is unlikely to make an impact next year, so if you think we dont have a playoff team right now, then we wont have one next year either. Im sorry that you dont believe in the team we have, but thats on you. You have a losers mentality because the team has been what it has been for so long. Times have changed, fan base needs to get with it and stop hoping that their team loses.

Draft capital don't mean crap. It's all about draft hits.

[MichaelMcNamara]

Draft capital don't mean crap. It's all about draft hits.

People dont care about it until its real. Let us lose and then have the pick move up to the top 4 and lets see people say it dont matter. Or, it doesnt move up but we use the '25 Bucks pick to get a high caliber starter like we did with Val and CJ, and then lets hear people say "Yeah, this guy is good, but I really wish we would have gotten into the playoffs 3 years ago to get spanked"

Instant gratification isnt always the MOST gratifying

[Silverfoxx]

People dont care about it until its real. Let us lose and then have the pick move up to the top 4 and lets see people say it dont matter. Or, it doesnt move up but we use the '25 Bucks pick to get a high caliber starter like we did with Val and CJ, and then lets hear people say "Yeah, this guy is good, but I really wish we would have gotten into the playoffs 3 years ago to get spanked"

Instant gratification isnt always the MOST gratifying

This

[MichaelMcNamara]

Looks like our arguing and debating wont matter. If Pels beat either of these teams on the road, I will be beyond shocked

[luckyman]

Looks like 12 of the Clippers 20 shots in that 4th were 3 pointers. Against a team missing their main big and not known for defense. They'll either bury you with 3s or shoot themselves out of the game.

Seems apropos the Pelicans could knock out both L.A. teams.

Too bad they've got to deal with the Spurs and that bearded man first.

[AUSSIE_PELICAN]

Looks like 12 of the Clippers 20 shots in that 4th were 3 pointers. Against a team missing their main big and not known for defense. They'll either bury you with 3s or shoot themselves out of the game.

Seems apropos the Pelicans could knock out both L.A. teams.

Too bad they've got to deal with the Spurs and that bearded man first.

Yeah I don't like our chances against Pop.
He's 1 in a billion.

[MichaelMcNamara]

Talked to someone in finance department and, on average, teams walk away with 2-3 million in profit per playoff home game. Thats after expenses and profit sharing, etc. On top of that, teams often experience a boost of 1-2k in season ticket sales/renewals by being able to offer playoff seats to people who get season tickets for next year.

So, I think we can estimate 5-6 million in additional revenue. On top of that, they get their 2022 and 2024 2nds back. The 2022 is #41. Lets put the 2024 one in the 50s. We know they will sell these or trade these for future 2nds, as they have no roster spots. Based on past history, you can estimate a total of 2-3 mil from the sale of those picks.

So..... on one side you lose and have the Bucks 2025 pick. On the other, a win and 7-8 million in profit, which I know fans dont care about but they do if that profit makes an owner more likely to eventually pay the lux tax or eat the salary on a bad decision (SVG last year, Temple this year as a waive and stretch?)

What will be the swing factor is two things: One, does the 11th slot (now New York) jump up on May 17th? Two, where does the 2025 Milwaukee pick fall?

If the 11th slot doesnt move up and the Milwaukee pick falls in the 20s, then I think you can say without a doubt that the win yesterday was worth it, even if (when) the Pels get smashed by Phoenix. If that 11th slot moves up into the top 4, it was a bad win. If the 11th slot doesnt move up and the Milwaukee pick finishes 6th, it was a bad win. But both those things are low probability.

Personally, I would have liked it a lot more if they beat a real team in these play ins. They basically played two 30-ish win teams (the PG, Kennard, and Kawhi-less Clippers are a 30-ish win team. Sorry, but true). That said, the WAY they won last night was awesome and BI getting to feel the playoffs will be valuable for him. Trey getting the minutes in a must win game and shining will be awesome for him. Overall, better to have made the playoffs I think.....but we will know for sure May 17th.

[luigi modelo]

Talked to someone in finance department and, on average, teams walk away with 2-3 million in profit per playoff home game. Thats after expenses and profit sharing, etc. On top of that, teams often experience a boost of 1-2k in season ticket sales/renewals by being able to offer playoff seats to people who get season tickets for next year.

So, I think we can estimate 5-6 million in additional revenue. On top of that, they get their 2022 and 2024 2nds back. The 2022 is #41. Lets put the 2024 one in the 50s. We know they will sell these or trade these for future 2nds, as they have no roster spots. Based on past history, you can estimate a total of 2-3 mil from the sale of those picks.

So..... on one side you lose and have the Bucks 2025 pick. On the other, a win and 7-8 million in profit, which I know fans dont care about but they do if that profit makes an owner more likely to eventually pay the lux tax or eat the salary on a bad decision (SVG last year, Temple this year as a waive and stretch?)

What will be the swing factor is two things: One, does the 11th slot (now New York) jump up on May 17th? Two, where does the 2025 Milwaukee pick fall?

If the 11th slot doesnt move up and the Milwaukee pick falls in the 20s, then I think you can say without a doubt that the win yesterday was worth it, even if (when) the Pels get smashed by Phoenix. If that 11th slot moves up into the top 4, it was a bad win. If the 11th slot doesnt move up and the Milwaukee pick finishes 6th, it was a bad win. But both those things are low probability.

Personally, I would have liked it a lot more if they beat a real team in these play ins. They basically played two 30-ish win teams (the PG, Kennard, and Kawhi-less Clippers are a 30-ish win team. Sorry, but true). That said, the WAY they won last night was awesome and BI getting to feel the playoffs will be valuable for him. Trey getting the minutes in a must win game and shining will be awesome for him. Overall, better to have made the playoffs I think.....but we will know for sure May 17th.

I think the last paragraph sums up well where things truly stand. While I understand and appreciate the draft seeding scenarios, I'm happy we made the playoffs.

[MichaelMcNamara]

I think the last paragraph sums up well where things truly stand. While I understand and appreciate the draft seeding scenarios, I'm happy we made the playoffs.

Well, of course you are happy now. You just got the treat and haven’t paid anything for it. Hard not to be happy when you demolish a rack of delicious ribs and a case of your favorite beer. But when you feel aweful the next day and add 6 pounds of fat, that is when you can have an honest cost/benefit discussion

Again, probability says the cost will be worth the benefit. But IF they get spanked by Phoenix and the pick jumps up on May 17th, you can’t possibly argue it was a good cost to pay. We will truly know then but without knowing that now, might as well be jubilant. No upside in worrying about the 17th. Root for entertainment, fun, and no injuries

[AusPel]

Talked to someone in finance department and, on average, teams walk away with 2-3 million in profit per playoff home game. Thats after expenses and profit sharing, etc. On top of that, teams often experience a boost of 1-2k in season ticket sales/renewals by being able to offer playoff seats to people who get season tickets for next year.

So, I think we can estimate 5-6 million in additional revenue. On top of that, they get their 2022 and 2024 2nds back. The 2022 is #41. Lets put the 2024 one in the 50s. We know they will sell these or trade these for future 2nds, as they have no roster spots. Based on past history, you can estimate a total of 2-3 mil from the sale of those picks.

So..... on one side you lose and have the Bucks 2025 pick. On the other, a win and 7-8 million in profit, which I know fans dont care about but they do if that profit makes an owner more likely to eventually pay the lux tax or eat the salary on a bad decision (SVG last year, Temple this year as a waive and stretch?)

What will be the swing factor is two things: One, does the 11th slot (now New York) jump up on May 17th? Two, where does the 2025 Milwaukee pick fall?

If the 11th slot doesnt move up and the Milwaukee pick falls in the 20s, then I think you can say without a doubt that the win yesterday was worth it, even if (when) the Pels get smashed by Phoenix. If that 11th slot moves up into the top 4, it was a bad win. If the 11th slot doesnt move up and the Milwaukee pick finishes 6th, it was a bad win. But both those things are low probability.

Personally, I would have liked it a lot more if they beat a real team in these play ins. They basically played two 30-ish win teams (the PG, Kennard, and Kawhi-less Clippers are a 30-ish win team. Sorry, but true). That said, the WAY they won last night was awesome and BI getting to feel the playoffs will be valuable for him. Trey getting the minutes in a must win game and shining will be awesome for him. Overall, better to have made the playoffs I think.....but we will know for sure May 17th.

Sorry, I'm trying to figure out why you singled out pick 11, not pick 12 that would we have owned had we lost and now OKC owns because we won

[MichaelMcNamara]

Sorry, I'm trying to figure out why you singled out pick 11, not pick 12 that would we have owned had we lost and now OKC owns because we won

We had solo 11th. If Pels lose last night, that would have been their slot. Now, because of the loss, Knicks move up to solo 11th. I am trying to understand your confusion so I can explain better but as simple as it gets — whatever happens to the Knicks in the lotto, that’s what would have happened to our pick had we lost

[AusPel]

We had solo 11th. If Pels lose last night, that would have been their slot. Now, because of the loss, Knicks move up to solo 11th. I am trying to understand your confusion so I can explain better but as simple as it gets — whatever happens to the Knicks in the lotto, that’s what would have happened to our pick had we lost

Oh yeah, we did have solo 11th

I've just had 12th on the brain because of the implications of the Clippers game and convinced myself we had 12th also with a loss. Now OKC has 12th.

My bad.

[donato]

Re: MM:

But we didn't lose, and nothing can change that. It's called reality. Your obsession of past hypotheticals is bizarre. It's irrelevant if the NY pick hits.

[MichaelMcNamara]

Oh yeah, we did have solo 11th

I've just had 12th on the brain because of the implications of the Clippers game and convinced myself we had 12th also with a loss. My bad.

But you are right to think of 12 too because if that jumps into top 4 that really helps OKC. Where they would have gotten 15 if Pels lost

Basically there is a 16 percent chance of 11 or 12 jumping up. So, in 5 out of every 6 worlds, winning last night has a very small cost. In one out of 6 worlds, it has a relevant future cost

[AusPel]

But you are right to think of 12 too because if that jumps into top 4 that really helps OKC. Where they would have gotten 15 if Pels lost

Basically there is a 16 percent chance of 11 or 12 jumping up. So, in 5 out of every 6 worlds, winning last night has a very small cost. In one out of 6 worlds, it has a relevant future cost

That's what I've been banging on about for the last day or two on this board (and people are sick of hearing). '

Winning the play in game had so many implications including giving OKC another lottery - possible top 4 - pick

[MichaelMcNamara]

Re: MM:

But we didn't lose, and nothing can change that. It's called reality. Your obsession of past hypotheticals is bizarre. It's irrelevant if the NY pick hits.

Yeah, sports fans NEVER discuss hypotheticals and alternate universes/outcomes. Nobody ever wondered if we had a higher pick in 2012 and got Lillard or Drummond instead of Rivers. Or there was never a convo on “if Draymond doesn’t hit Lebron does GS win the title and does Durant still go to GS?”

That’s what sports talk is mostly made of. And if you don’t want to engage, nobody is forcing you to. But your obsession with me is getting creepy. Your need to comment on everything I say and try to put me down on a personal level. I gotta hit the ignore on you. And sincerely, get some help. You should never be this obsessed with someone you don’t even know

[MichaelMcNamara]

That's what I've been banging on about for the last day or two on this board (and people are sick of hearing). '

Winning the play in game had so many implications including giving OKC another lottery - possible top 4 - pick

It is what it is. Might as well enjoy it now and just hope May 17th smiles upon the Pels

[Taker597]

Yeah, sports fans NEVER discuss hypotheticals and alternate universes/outcomes. Nobody ever wondered if we had a higher pick in 2012 and got Lillard or Drummond instead of Rivers. Or there was never a convo on “if Draymond doesn’t hit Lebron does GS win the title and does Durant still go to GS?”

That’s what sports talk is mostly made of. And if you don’t want to engage, nobody is forcing you to. But your obsession with me is getting creepy. Your need to comment on everything I say and try to put me down on a personal level. I gotta hit the ignore on you. And sincerely, get some help. You should never be this obsessed with someone you don’t even know

Still the most bizarre thing about that game 7 is that Draymond Green 35 point Stateline and him falling off immediately.

[mriguy]

Michael, do you have any updates on if and when Zion will return?

[MichaelMcNamara]

Michael, do you have any updates on if and when Zion will return?

Back to unlikely. Apparently, Zion put on about 8 pounds and it’s not muscle. I don’t fully understand how they measure but was told they are concerned with the added weight on the landing. Apparently they can measure landing force. Way over my head. But was told very unlikely due to the recent 8 pounds

[AusPel]

It is what it is. Might as well enjoy it now and just hope May 17th smiles upon the Pels

I couldn't even enjoy the game. I barely watched it because deep down I wanted us to lose



And I feel horrible about it

[msusousaphone]

But again, we're talking about a league that is primarily built through free agency and trades. The inconsequential question is 'who will OKC draft in that spot' and probability shows us the bigger question is 'where will the player OKC draft in that spot eventually go win championships'.

With our core being set, free agency is more important to us than the draft and it's not even close. Especially since we already have that Lakers pick.

Have you guys had the volume on mute the past two games? The national media is actually starting to salivate over us and our future. I've heard more TNT and ESPN pundits saying positive things about us in less than a week than in the previous 10 years combined. We already have Trey and Herb on nice rookie deals, Jose, too, and the Lakers pick.......our draft pick means nothing compared to the FA clout we're now swinging around.

[mriguy]

Thanks for the update. I guess he didn’t want to play enough to put the fork down.