Originally Posted by PaKwAn
I wanted Maxey just cause, considering where we were picking (8-13) you cant go wrong picking the kentucky shooting guard
tyler herro pick 13,
devin booket pick 13,
SHAI.G.A. pick 11
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I wanted Maxey just cause, considering where we were picking (8-13) you cant go wrong picking the kentucky shooting guard
tyler herro pick 13,
devin booket pick 13,
SHAI.G.A. pick 11
I don't think Griffin is the better athlete, atleast not anymore(if he ever was). And pedigree means jack ****. Give me tangible things. Handle I agree and yeah he's younger. But I don't see Griffin's lateral quickness getting better and for that reason alone, I don't think he'll ever be a plus perimeter defender. His shot looks wonky as hell, Trey's shot was butter.
Griffin and Duren are the two likely top 10 picks, that I think won't live up to their hype.
That’s fine to have your takes and to disagree. What makes the world go round. Pedigree like everything else, is something. Not everything, but something.
It all comes down to whether you want to compare 19 yr old Griffin to 19 yr old Trey. Or 19 yr old Griffin to 21 yr old Trey. The latter is close, the former is not
@mcnamara247
I would take Johnny Davis over Griffin. AJ just scares the hell out of me lol
CAW CAW!!!
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Well yeah. To be clear, I'm comparing Trey when he was coming out to Griffin now that's he's coming out. Not the 19 year old versions.
And SFoxx, I would too. 100%.
Basketball players normally peak at about 24 years old. They certainly can get better, but they generally don't have statistical seasons significantly better than they did at 24.
Giannis was 27.7 pts 12.5 rbs 5.9 asts on 57.9% from the field at 24. And he was seen as extremely raw coming out at 19.
LeBron was 28.4 / 7.6 / 7.2
AD was 28.1 / 11.1 / 2.3
And so on. You can occasionally find jumps like James Harden, though he was still incredibly good at 24. So I can see why people want to compare 19 year olds to 21 year olds in terms of ceilings.
But when it comes to AJ Griffin, at least for me, I just don't see it. His shot seems a little slow and he's not very quick. I think he'll be a poor defender and have a lot of altered shots. He also doesn't have ideal size. He's an undersized 3 or a backup 2.
At least for Trey Murphy, the argument is that he's a late bloomer since he was 5'11" as a junior in high school. 6'4" going to college. And 6'7.5" w/o shoes at the draft combine. Supposedly he's now 6'9" without shoes but I'm sure there's some embellishment. He has ideal size for a wing 3&D player and a very quick release.
I do kinda like Bennedict Mathurin, but it remains to be seen if he will be there when the Pelicans pick, depending where (or if?) they land in the lottery. But overall I'm just not a fan of most of the players in this draft. Assuming the pick isn't top 4, I'd be almost equally happy with just trading down or completely out of this draft and picking up a handful of future picks and maybe a role player or two.
Last edited by bradael; 05-15-2022 at 03:15 PM.
Yes I?m just hoping we can land a top 4 pick cause I?ll take any of the top 4 guys. After those 4 I don?t really love anyone.
I guess a fully healthy squad would have a 2 deep looking like this:
C: JV, Jaxson
PF: Zion, Nance
SF: BI, Murphy
SG: Herb, Graham
PG: CJ, Jose
Looking at that the 2 deep, Ivey makes the most sense. It would be nice if we could move Graham this off-season cause that backup backcourt doesn?t work at all. It would be even sweeter if we could package Graham, Jaxson, & maybe even Kira for an experienced guard with some size. I would like to keep Kira though just in case he hits his potential. Maybe throw in a pick as well. Then take Smith, Paolo, or Holmgren.
My ideal 2 deep:
C: JV, Nance
PF: Zion, Paolo
SF: BI, Murphy
SG: Herb, 6?5?/6?6? good vet
PG: CJ, Jose
Last edited by DaPelFromHell; 05-15-2022 at 10:33 PM.
My gut feeling is that we will get 9, which again is so much better than any of us could have expected with that Lakers pick even two months ago. But a move into the top 4 would be such a massive game changer. Still don’t think they ever win a title but hard to see that not being a contending team from 2024 through the end of the decade if they get lucky tomorrow
My tiers (For lottery, I go all upside. Do not care about floor or even median outcome. The logic behind that is the 2nd contract. You take a guy in the top 10 and either he is gone by the 2nd contract or you are giving him a massive deal. Therefore, why care about median outcome or floor? A "solid" player is only a problem (see: DeAndre Hunter or Cam Reddish, in that you either gotta overpay based on draft position or sell off them for less than the asset you gave up. See Jaxson Hayes, and so on and so forth. Therefore, you either go for upside or you trade out of the top 10 and go get the "solid, fit" guy. Based on that logic, my tiers are:
Tier 1 (There is a world where he can be an MVP Candidate)
1. Chet
2. Paolo
3. Sharpe
Could Chet be Dirk plus Camby defense? I think so. Unlikely, but there is a world. For Paolo, I think people will be shocked at what he will be in the NBA. I see comps of Elton Brand, but I see far closer to Tatum when he gets polish. Or, like a better Shereef Abdur Rahim. And Sharpe is the only other guy who has like a 2 percent chance of being a first team All NBA guy. Could be Zach Lavine plus Bradley Beal having a baby if all goes well. I would have his median outcome around 6-10 in this class, but ceiling is 3 for me.
Tier 2 (Could make an All NBA team or two and a few All Stars)
4. Jaden Ivey
5. Jabari Smith
I keep flipping these two, but my tiebreaker here will be playoff performer and I just want to bet on the self creator in the playoffs. I think it is too easy for a reliant guy to disappear. I think the 5 leading scorers of this upcoming WCF will all be guards. Self creators who can also get some buckets for others. Now, if Jabari becomes an elite defender, it flips back, but I project above average to good, not elite.
Tier 3 (Could make an All Star game or 3)
6. Keegan Murray
7. Dyson Daniels
8. Jeremy Sochan
Murray isnt the best defender, but the dude cares. He cares about everything, and I can easily see him exerting himself more on D if he lands on the Pels and doesnt have as much of a load to carry. Daniels already has a lot of maturity in his game. A floater, smart defense, and cross court vision. And rumor is he will measure around 6'8", and might still grow some more. I have no doubt the 3 will evolve. He makes All Star teams if the mid range and step back become a part of his arsenal. Sochan could be a new age Rodman (Pistons version) with more offensive tools. That is his ceiling IMO.
Tier 4 (Could make a few All Star games but with a lower floor than Tier 3)
9. Ousmane Dieng
10. Ben Mathurin
11. AJ Griffin
12. Jaden Hardy
Dieng is the type of gamble worth taking if you are the Pels and dont have rotation minutes any way right now. His ceiling is higher than anybody's in this tier or below and I would even put it at the level of the guys in the tier above. The floor is just way lower, so he tops this tier. Mathurin could be Mitch Richmond if everything breaks right and Griffin could one day be young Shane Battier but with the ability to average 20. The last guy I see as having a real chance to make a few AS games is Jaden Hardy, who sounds like he has some major maturing to do. But if he gets with the right franchise, he could be the steal of the draft. If someone told me a guy in the 20s makes a few All Star teams, he would be my bet. Both because I think he could fall there and because I think he has that upside.
Meanwhile, if I were to make my highest floors top 10, it would be:
1. Paolo Banchero
2. Jabari Smith
3. Jaden Ivey
4. Chet Holmgren
5. Keegan Murray
6. Malaki Branham
7. Johnny Davis
8. Shaedon Sharpe
9. Jeremy Sochan
10. Benedict Mathurin
Hayes was a high upside pick, was he not? Certainly wasn't a low ceiling, high floor type selection
Last edited by AusPel; 05-16-2022 at 10:27 AM.
Ousmane Dieng is intriguing. Saw a Brandon Ingram comp for him
He was higher ceiling and he didn’t work. Same with Sekou that year. Accept it, cut bait and move on.
If you hit on 1 in 4 high upside swings, it changes your franchise. Hit 4 for 4 with 4 singles like Hawks did with Hunter, Prince, Cam, etc….it does nothing but give you headaches. If you are gonna swing for the single or double, trade back and do that in the late teens or 20s and grab other assets
My personal philosophy. No philosophy is perfect. But if Pels wanna do that, trade back and get the kid from Kansas or a rotation big like Williams. Don’t do it at 8 because the 2nd contract becomes an issue
I'm on board with Dyson Daniels if we end up at 8 or 9. I hadn't watched him and by description I thought of him as a non-shooting Lonzo, but after watching a couple Ignite games, I'm in. He's immediately a plus perimeter defender and is also a guy who can switch 1-4. He's pretty strong for his frame and off ball is really smart. I think he'll be a beast defensively as he grows into his frame.
I believe in guys who have touch to figure out open catch-and-shoot jumpers at an adequate level, and if he is, he is a 20+ minute playoff player. Unlike Lonzo, I think he has enough change of pace to be credible as a pick-and-roll player. I think he isn't quite the passer Lonzo is, but does some of that connecting and outlet stuff. I like that he can get to the rim and is nice on floaters when he gets there. You can build an offensive game around that stuff.
His effort level is also really good, and he fits in the culture we're trying to build. I think he has the type of frame that get more athletic as he fills out, so there is more upside than he gets credit for.
I really like Mathurin. I left a few games this year thinking there is no way he would on the board at 8-10, if the Pels got the Lakers pick. But its getting so hard for me to justify him over Daniels and Sochan, because of all the areas they can touch the game. And I am confident that one of those two guys will be on the board when the Pels pick. That said, I would still bet on the Pels taking Mathurin. They have liked him for a while and by all accounts he is an awesome kid to boot
I'm pretty easy to please with this pick if the Pels are at 8-9. I think Mathurin is an outstanding fit. I like the versatility of his jumper and his athleticism. I think he eventually figures out defense in a smaller role. I think his ceiling is limited by not really being able to dribble, but the Pels don't really need a guy to dribble. I'd have a hard time picking between him and Daniels if both are available.
I don't think Sochan ever gets guarded on the perimeter, so I am not as much of a fan. I can see Daniels shooting the basketball because his touch is good and the jumper looks fine, although takes forever to get it off. Sochan's numbers are bad, the form looks clunky, he is bad from the line, and there are no reasons to believe he'll fix it except being willing to shoot. Maybe he's just such a worker he figures it out or maybe he is so good at everything else that he's still good, but I fear he ends up being a total nonshooter who isn't really big enough or enough of a rim deterrent to play the 5.
Edit: I still like him as a player on a roster with more shooting, but if Zion and Herb Jones are going to be playing on this team, I think it's hard to have Sochan out there too.
Last edited by Biasvasospasm; 05-16-2022 at 05:29 PM.
Mathurin can get buckets. That's what we need with our 2nd unit. If we end up at 8 I hope he's still there.
You don’t draft for current needs. Or what your 2nd unit needs next year. This isn’t the NFL. You draft in the lotto for a substantial difference maker, assuming he might make that difference in 3 or 4 years, for the next 8 years…and you have no idea what that 2026 roster will look like
If you want to draft a guy who can help next years team and fits the current roster needs, you trade back into the late teens or early 20s and go get that. But in the rare situations that you have a top 4 or top 8 pick, your current roster and needs shouldn’t even enter your brain. Getting a top 30 player is darn near impossible. The vast majority of top 30 players are drafted in the top 10. When you are drafting up there, your ONLY question should be: Which guy on the board has a chance to one day be a top 30 player? And whatever that answer is…he is your pick
Ben Mathurin is a great cultural fit. Really awesome personality with an amazing journey. If he can develop real handles... He's a no brainer for me. There is just a great avenue for him to develop in a good role.
His role in Arizona was simply to carry offensive workload. If you give him less on his plate. Does that work ethic going into other ares of his game.
At times, he was so hyper focused on offense that maybe he can really blossom in role that needed him to do more than hero ball.
He gots a real dog mentality, tho.
Draft lottery can't happen soon enough. Ready to just focus on three names.
Agree that you aren't drafting a guy for next year. Just that if it's close and you have one guy who is a great fit with your core pieces and desired style of play and another guy who, even if things go perfectly, isn't, drafting the guy who fits can make sense. Not saying pick a player you think is significantly inferior, but if you see them as being in the same tier, it's a consideration. It isn't the most important consideration (not saying draft James Wiseman because you have a hole at center or pass up Luka because he doesn't fit with Fox), but IMO it is a consideration. Among other reasons, getting playing time to figure stuff out is important for development. If he can't get on the court because he is redundant with established players or because coach doesn't want to put out a lineup with only one guy who shoots 3s, it's hard to get the reps to develop as well as he might on another roster where the situation makes sense.
I think this is less and less true in the first few picks, because out in the tail of the talent distribution, the difference between players is steeper.
Not you, but I think teams generally use the “when it’s close” or “they are on a similar tier” to justify going fit.
Why I visualize a blank roster. Prevents you from doing that. Again, I won’t be upset with Mathurin. I just don’t see any way that he is the highest guy for me when it comes to our pick. Similar to Kira, who I had 12th and Maxey (who I had 8th) was still on the board. That said, if I was a betting man, I would bet Mathurin is a Pels in a little more than a month
I remember getting into intense discussions on here over people who swore up and down that Aaron Nesmith was the best shooter in the draft over Bane, and that Bane was too old and his wingspan was too short.
Everyone has misses - including me, of course - but that one stuck out to me as particularly egregious. It's not hindsight. It was obvious at the time that Bane was going to be a legit NBA player who shot the ball at a super high level and had enough auxiliary skills to evade being considered one dimensional.
Basketball.
Yeah, I think he was picked 30th, so a lot of teams missed on him.
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