Pelicans Centric 2022 Top-10 Prospects

[DarkHornet]

My tiers (For lottery, I go all upside. Do not care about floor or even median outcome. The logic behind that is the 2nd contract. You take a guy in the top 10 and either he is gone by the 2nd contract or you are giving him a massive deal. Therefore, why care about median outcome or floor? A "solid" player is only a problem (see: DeAndre Hunter or Cam Reddish, in that you either gotta overpay based on draft position or sell off them for less than the asset you gave up. See Jaxson Hayes, and so on and so forth. Therefore, you either go for upside or you trade out of the top 10 and go get the "solid, fit" guy.

I like this philosophy. I do have a question, though. How much do you care about how quickly they realize that ceiling? I would assume you'd like to know if they are going to reach that ceiling by the end of their first contract, right? Part of the problem with Jaxson Hayes (and maybe you disagree) is that his ceiling could STILL be very high, and he just has not grown as quickly as we would have liked. Now he's coming up on the end of his rookie contract and we've got to make a decision to make. We could hold on and hope he gets to that ceiling, but it's certainly a risk and likely overpay.

[MichaelMcNamara]

There are VERY few guys who get to that level that don?t show it in their first contract. Conley is an outlier that comes to mind. But very few others. Anfernee Simons seems to be a very late bloomer. But even the super young when drafted guys will show you by the end of year 3 that they will get to that level.

Jaxson Hayes won?t get there. Ever. Our fandom wants him to get there but he won?t. It was worth a swing but he won?t be on this team into his 2nd deal and we won?t live to regret it

[Pelicanidae]

Yeah, I think he was picked 30th, so a lot of teams missed on him.

That draft was really good for me to be honest, lots of picks/predictions I made in that draft came true.

My one major regret is that I let people talk me into being fine with Kira at 13 when I had him around 20th before then. I still had Maxey higher than him, but around January during that draft I had Maxey top 10 and Kira around 20-25, and I let people talk me into putting Kira in the same tier. Big mistake, seeing how quickly and how significantly Maxey has been able to make major NBA impact compared to Kira who probably doesn't even earn minutes in our rotation right now. I had other areas where I would make changes with the power of hindsight but that was one place I was right at the time and let myself be swayed.

It's part of why I'm trying to be a bit more cautious this year. I'm probably not going to make my top 10 solid and known until the end of the month, since I started draft stuff late this year.

[MichaelMcNamara]

That draft was really good for me to be honest, lots of picks/predictions I made in that draft came true.

My one major regret is that I let people talk me into being fine with Kira at 13 when I had him around 20th before then. I still had Maxey higher than him, but around January during that draft I had Maxey top 10 and Kira around 20-25, and I let people talk me into putting Kira in the same tier. Big mistake, seeing how quickly and how significantly Maxey has been able to make major NBA impact compared to Kira who probably doesn't even earn minutes in our rotation right now. I had other areas where I would make changes with the power of hindsight but that was one place I was right at the time and let myself be swayed.

It's part of why I'm trying to be a bit more cautious this year. I'm probably not going to make my top 10 solid and known until the end of the month, since I started draft stuff late this year.

Spoiler alert, even if all your 2022 predictions come right and you don’t become soiled by members on a small message board, there will be no prize in the mail. If you get everyone wrong, there will be no punishment. It won’t effect your life one bit either way. So just have fun with it and don’t take it so seriously lol

[Pelicanidae]

Spoiler alert, even if all your 2022 predictions come right and you don’t become soiled by members on a small message board, there will be no prize in the mail. If you get everyone wrong, there will be no punishment. It won’t effect your life one bit either way. So just have fun with it and don’t take it so seriously lol

Some people do things for casual fun. I know this may be difficult for you to understand, but it's true. Some people are capable of taking enjoyment in things. And sometimes, that involves making predictions and finding it interesting and gratifying that they were correct. Don't need a prize, it's just a game. Not sure why you feel the urge to try and rain on every single parade.

[donato]

Some people do things for casual fun. I know this may be difficult for you to understand, but it's true. Some people are capable of taking enjoyment in things. And sometimes, that involves making predictions and finding it interesting and gratifying that they were correct. Don't need a prize, it's just a game. Not sure why you feel the urge to try and rain on every single parade.

The irony there is that when Mac actually is right, he feels the need to award himself prizes by constantly mentioning it in his posts so everyone knows it (over and over and over). Some of his draft posts are fun though I admit, even if they end up not holding much weight in how things transpire in reality.

[AusPel]

Be interesting to know how Jax's trade value is seen as around the league, compared to say Reddish

[UNO Gracias]

Be interesting to know how Jax's trade value is seen as around the league, compared to say Reddish

It’s probably similar to “would you rather a turd sandwich or vomit oatmeal.

[Eyquem]

The sleepers I'll be watching with interest are Jake LaRavia, David Roddy, and Jaylin Williams. LaRavia's a guy who does a little bit of everything, and Roddy has a shot at being this year's Desmond Bane. I can see Jaylin down the line being a bench big with positive impact stats. Imagine two beefy fullbacks like Zion and Roddy on the floor at the same time!

[Biasvasospasm]

The sleepers I'll be watching with interest are Jake LaRavia, David Roddy, and Jaylin Williams. LaRavia's a guy who does a little bit of everything, and Roddy has a shot at being this year's Desmond Bane. I can see Jaylin down the line being a bench big with positive impact stats. Imagine two beefy fullbacks like Zion and Roddy on the floor at the same time!

Love Roddy. I don't know if it works, but he is really fun to watch.

[Pelifan]

This year I think Johnny Davis is the guy outside the top 4.


So his career is probably doomed.

[MichaelMcNamara]

Some people do things for casual fun. I know this may be difficult for you to understand, but it's true. Some people are capable of taking enjoyment in things. And sometimes, that involves making predictions and finding it interesting and gratifying that they were correct. Don't need a prize, it's just a game. Not sure why you feel the urge to try and rain on every single parade.

Actually wasn’t trying to rain. Exactly the opposite. Notice that I said - “don’t take it so seriously. Just have FUN”

Sorry it came off the way you read it. Again, the word fun is literally right there so I don’t know why you took it wrong, but my bad

[Biasvasospasm]

This year I think Johnny Davis is the guy outside the top 4.


So his career is probably doomed.

If we're ignoring fit, I am as sure about Johnny Davis being a good player as anyone in this draft outside of the top 3. I don't see his combination of craft, size, and strength failing, and I like his competitiveness and strength defensively. He isn't this freak athlete but he is really good at getting to his spots. I think there is a chance he ends up being an awesome defensive player if he is reduced to a smaller role, he was already good and if he isn't having to be this high usage guy on offense like he was at Wisconsin he'll have more in the tank to play even harder defensively. I think offensively he reminds me of CJ and somewhat reminds me of Spencer Dinwiddie. I think the fit with the Pels is not good offensively, but he can really play. I wouldn't be upset if the Pels picked him 8-10.

[johnpagenola]

Sometimes, that involves making predictions and finding it interesting and gratifying that they were correct.

A common cognitive bias is "hindsight bias" (aka knew-it-all-along) where after an event people tell themselves, "yeah, I knew that would happen." Your predictions about players that are in the draft are the best prevention of you falling prey to this weakness. Also, specifying these predictions and then seeing how you do also helps you improve in the future. So these predictions are more than just fun. Personally, I always knew that Herb Jones would be a defensive stud, the Pelicans would come back from 20 points down at the half against the Lakers and the Pelicans would make the playoffs. /s

[MichaelMcNamara]

If we're ignoring fit, I am as sure about Johnny Davis being a good player as anyone in this draft outside of the top 3. I don't see his combination of craft, size, and strength failing, and I like his competitiveness and strength defensively. He isn't this freak athlete but he is really good at getting to his spots. I think there is a chance he ends up being an awesome defensive player if he is reduced to a smaller role, he was already good and if he isn't having to be this high usage guy on offense like he was at Wisconsin he'll have more in the tank to play even harder defensively. I think offensively he reminds me of CJ and somewhat reminds me of Spencer Dinwiddie. I think the fit with the Pels is not good offensively, but he can really play. I wouldn't be upset if the Pels picked him 8-10.

I am just so worried about his lack of “get by”…the very few times he went against NBA level defenders, he looked like he was stuck in mud

[AUSSIE_PELICAN]

If the organisation believes that CJ is a long term piece and even Val for that matter then we as fans are going to be disappointed.
Both these guys are great for now, but come 2024 and beyond I hope neither are on this team as the foundations should be set and the Team has already been built around BI, Zion, Jones, Murphy and who ever they add between now and 2024.
This draft and drafts in the future should be about asset collection, if those player doesn't pan out to be a Jones or Murphy contributor, then move them for who will be.

Lets hope Griff isn't dumb enough to extend CJ.

[Biasvasospasm]

He's 22, has fine but not massively impressive college defense, and he struggles hard to create offensive advantages at a college level. Not a particularly impressive passer, doesn't get to the FT line, and there's reason to suspect that his 3pt% is a bit of an outlier as well.

I'd get it if people were mocking him 15-25, but top 10? Makes no sense.

Disagree. In particular, and correct me if I'm wrong, but from what I can see his free throw rate was higher than any prospect inside the lottery besides Johnny Davis (Jabari is close) and he gets to the rim and finishes at a high level. In terms of the outside shooting, he shot from the FT line reasonably well (74.8% over his two seasons). It's also not like he almost had a foot on the line when he shot, he would take and make from a couple feet behind the line. He has some weaknesses, for sure, but he plays with force and intelligence and gets to efficient offense. I think he'll continue to score efficiently in the flow of an NBA offense. It's hard to imagine him being a big time creator, but I have a hard time seeing that for most of these guys.

I think he's somewhere between Otto Porter and TJ Warren. I do think he's a bit more athletic than either of those guys, though. Tough, highly productive, pretty good shooter, solid length and athleticism to guard his position. Not a primary, not ideally a secondary, but a really nice tertiary who bring a lot to the table. That may not be what you're looking for with a top 10 pick if you're drafting for ceiling but I think he'll add value on his rookie contract and be a starting caliber NBA forward. I think there are worse picks towards the back end of the top 10.

[new city champ]

Obviously Davis isn't really a "blow by" guy. He's someone who depends on his shot-making skills to score. That can be a red flag as guys go up a level, but on the other hand you regularly see guys who aren't elite run-and-jump athletes become good NBA players. I can remember when folks dinged Luka for having a slow first step and no vertical. All true, but as it turns out, so what?

Davis reminds me a little of a guy like Rip Hamilton or maybe more recently a Dillon Brooks up in Memphis (though more prolific). I think he has the skill set to be a strong scoring guard off the bench, a la Tyler Herro, though he's not the outside shooter Herro is. The question is does he have the upside to be in your starting or finishing five eventually and is he too ball dominant to be added to a squad that already has three front-line ball dominators.

At first glance I'd say it's a bad long term fit. I've always thought the ideal SG for the Zion-Pels was a long shooter who could defend 1-3 and go 40% from the arc and 80+% from the stripe on 10-12 attempts a game (Herb may just get there). But Davis interests me as much for his intangibles, defense and competitive mindset as he does for his scoring. If the scouting backs up that he's a bright-lights baller with a chip on his shoulder and a commitment to defense, then I'd be more inclined to take him. That combo of scorer, defender and culture setter is a guy who might just be worth that big second contract in a few years. In the meantime, we really could use a bench scorer to do the job Graham was supposed to do.

Exit note: I'm really interested to see how all these guys in our cloud (Mathurin/Griffin/Davis/Daniels/Sochan/Agbaji) test out and measure out...

[MichaelMcNamara]

Obviously Davis isn't really a "blow by" guy. He's someone who depends on his shot-making skills to score. That can be a red flag as guys go up a level, but on the other hand you regularly see guys who aren't elite run-and-jump athletes become good NBA players. I can remember when folks dinged Luka for having a slow first step and no vertical. All true, but as it turns out, so what?

Davis reminds me a little of a guy like Rip Hamilton or maybe more recently a Dillon Brooks up in Memphis (though more prolific). I think he has the skill set to be a strong scoring guard off the bench, a la Tyler Herro, though he's not the outside shooter Herro is. The question is does he have the upside to be in your starting or finishing five eventually and is he too ball dominant to be added to a squad that already has three front-line ball dominators.

At first glance I'd say it's a bad long term fit. I've always thought the ideal SG for the Zion-Pels was a long shooter who could defend 1-3 and go 40% from the arc and 80+% from the stripe on 10-12 attempts a game (Herb may just get there). But Davis interests me as much for his intangibles, defense and competitive mindset as he does for his scoring. If the scouting backs up that he's a bright-lights baller with a chip on his shoulder and a commitment to defense, then I'd be more inclined to take him. That combo of scorer, defender and culture setter is a guy who might just be worth that big second contract in a few years. In the meantime, we really could use a bench scorer to do the job Graham was supposed to do.

Exit note: I'm really interested to see how all these guys in our cloud (Mathurin/Griffin/Davis/Daniels/Sochan/Agbaji) test out and measure out...

Doubt any will be made public, but we will get this info in our private workout with Ousmane that Trajan will head up

[bradael]

NBA Combine measurements thus far:
https://www.nba.com/stats/draft/combine-anthro/

Bennedict Mathurin 6'4.5" w/o shoes and 6'9" wingspan
Shaedon Sharpe at 6'4.25" w/o shoes and 6'11.5" wingspan
Ochai Agbaji at 6'4.5" w/o shoes and 6'10.25" wingspan
Dyson Daniels at 6'6" w/o shoes and 6'10.5" wingspan

FYI, last year's combine had Trey Murphy at 6'7.5" w/o shoes & 7'0" wingspan and Herb Jones at 6'6" w/o shoes and a 7'0.25" wingspan.

I was thinking Mathurin would go 7, but I'm wondering if those measurements might cost him a couple spots.

[PaKwAn]

Daniels got nice measurements. Eason has that kawhi like measurables as well...

[Biasvasospasm]

NBA Combine measurements thus far:
https://www.nba.com/stats/draft/combine-anthro/

Bennedict Mathurin 6'4.5" w/o shoes and 6'9" wingspan

I was thinking Mathurin would go 7, but I'm wondering if those measurements might cost him a couple spots.

I doubt it. That's pretty good size for a shooting guard and his competition measured about the same. He might go later, but measuring 6'6" in shoes is pretty ideal size at the two so doubt that would be a major reason. He looks about that tall on film, too, so don't think it's a surprising measurement. He's doesn't have +++ length but +3 is fine. Herb and Trey are 3s/4s so should measure larger.

[bradael]

He still has solid measurements, but nothing eye popping which could lead to teams taking a more high risk/high reward player high in the lottery. I'm far more confident right now that he'll fall to 8 than at this point 24 hours ago. His measurements are similar to Josh Hart, Klay Thompson, and Demar Derozan.

Though we'll see as the workouts and interviews progress if there's actually talk about the Pelicans looking seriously at Dieng.

[redboy0125]

I've heard this name mentioned as a sleeper in the 2nd but it doesn't look like he'll make it that far. He must have a draft promise in the 20s.

Jake LaRavia has pulled out of scrimmaging for tomorrow. Shot it extremely well today, finished first in the 3-point star drilling 18/25.

— Jonathan Wasserman (@NBADraftWass) May 19, 2022

[Silverfoxx]

What's y'all thoughts on Leonard Miller? Big day for him tommorow with the scrimmage. Dude is a huge question mark.