November 17th - New Orleans Pelicans @ Miami Heat - 2-13

[PELICANSFAN]

My point FYI is that this team is poorly constructed if Zion going into year 3 is it's savior. If Griffin can't put together a team that can Zion is out it's a huge deal. And as someone pointed out Zion is on a rookie deal. If it difficult to put a winner together when Zion counts as 8-12% of the cap what is Griffin going to do when he counts as 30-35% of the cap?

Agree. Not to mention, Griffin was handed a huge stash of assets to use to build around Zion and has squandered most of it already.

[Pelicanidae]

If your point is Zion is really good at basketball than we all can agree. If you think at this stage of his career he's the difference between competing for a playoff spot and not I'd strongly disagree. Right now Zion is a very efficient scorer and above par play maker. His defense is sub par. Until he gets his weight in check he's not moving the needle and will never reach his full potential.

My point FYI is that this team is poorly constructed if Zion going into year 3 is it's savior. If Griffin can't put together a team that can Zion is out it's a huge deal. And as someone pointed out Zion is on a rookie deal. If it difficult to put a winner together when Zion counts as 8-12% of the cap what is Griffin going to do when he counts as 30-35% of the cap?

I didn't say anything about a playoff spot - in fact, the rough guess I gave regarding what our record might be with Zion was still under .500 and would not currently be a playoff record in the West (I said 7-9 maybe, and the 8th seed in the West is currently 8-8).

The idea that Zion is ''not moving the needle'' right now when he's on court is just flat out not correct, though.

Zion's 2019-20 season, for example. In games without Zion, the Pelicans had a 19-29 record, good for .396 - in a regular 82 game season, that equates to a 32 win pace.. In games with Zion, the Pelicans had an 11-13 record, good for .458. In a regular 82 game season, that equates to a 38 win pace. +6 wins added is pretty good for a single player, that falls within the top 25 of single player wins added in basically any season.

Then compare last year, 2020-21. In games without Zion, the Pels had a 2-9 record, about .182 - equates to about 15 games over an 82 game season. With Zion last year, Pels had a 29-32 record, about .475. That projects to 39 wins over an 82 game season. That is to say, when Zion didn't play last year we were a team that played like a 15 win team. With him, we were playing like a 39 win team. Now of course, Zion wasn't the only person to miss games and some games he missed so did other people, and you have to consider who we played against when he was out versus who we played against when he was in, but when you take all that kind of stuff into account, Basketball Index rated Zion as being worth 8.2 Wins Added last year for the Pelicans.

That's just slightly more than Joel Embiid (8.0), Paul George (7.9) and Lebron James (7.9) and just behind Kawhi Leonard (8.3) and CP3 (8.4).

This is a guy who already contributes massively towards winning when he's on the court. The knock on him is his ability to stay on the court, not the impact he provides to the team when he's on it. In both of the seasons he's been able to play in, even if only limited games, he's already shown that he thoroughly moves the needle for us. Without him, we've been a bottom dweller. With him, we've been playing like a playoff team.

[new city champ]

No argument here that Zion has a huge impact for the good when he's on the floor. Unfortunately, he's on track to miss more than half of the games he could have played in in his first 2.5 seasons. Hard to have an impact that way.

Which makes it all the more negligent for Griffin to build a roster that literally can't compete without him in the line up. At a minimum--a MINIMUM--you have to invest in a viable back-up at the position who can somewhat offset him being injured. That should be SOP for the roster the rest of Zion's career.

None of that relieves Griffin of culpability for the rest of the roster. You are seeing multiple young players we could have drafted develop into valuable contributors. You are seeing multiple young vets plucked from the bench of other rosters by smart front offices helping their new teams. We have almost none of that. And that, I'll say again, is a big part of the front offices job. The biggest part. Anyone can draft a Zion Williamson. The bench mark for a good team is being able to hang around .500 with your best player on the disabled list--beat bad teams at home, split with them on the road and pull the occasional upset. That's where the Pels should be by now...

[Pelicanidae]

No argument here that Zion has a huge impact for the good when he's on the floor. Unfortunately, he's on track to miss more than half of the games he could have played in in his first 2.5 seasons. Hard to have an impact that way.

Which makes it all the more negligent for Griffin to build a roster that literally can't compete without him in the line up. At a minimum--a MINIMUM--you have to invest in a viable back-up at the position who can somewhat offset him being injured. That should be SOP for the roster the rest of Zion's career.

None of that relieves Griffin of culpability for the rest of the roster. You are seeing multiple young players we could have drafted develop into valuable contributors. You are seeing multiple young vets plucked from the bench of other rosters by smart front offices helping their new teams. We have almost none of that. And that, I'll say again, is a big part of the front offices job. The biggest part. Anyone can draft a Zion Williamson. The bench mark for a good team is being able to hang around .500 with your best player on the disabled list--beat bad teams at home, split with them on the road and pull the occasional upset. That's where the Pels should be by now...

Agreed with that. Zion being healthy and playing makes us better, sure, and that's normal - your best player being available makes a difference to any team.

But there's no way we should be this bad without him. 2-14? Come on. If we were 5-11 or 6-10, I'd be like okay fine, that's bad but I get it. No Zion, Ingram missed a bunch of time as well, fine - not good, but understandable.

2-14 over 16 games? That's just beyond bad. Ingram has played in 9 games and we're 1-8 in games where he's still here, that's inexcusable. At that point we're down, sure, but we do still have an all-star in BI, and JV has been very good for us, and even NAW has been better over the last 4 or 5 games than he was before, but we can't finish out any game? It's silly.

Team needs more quality NBA players on it. Regardless of how well you think Temple and Sato have done for us (and I don't think they've done very well at all) they shouldn't be getting real rotation minutes on a team that's in our position. Either we're gunning for the playoffs in Zion's third year, in which case they're not good enough, or we're tanking and they shouldn't be getting minutes over the youth like Trey. Neither outcome leads to Temple and Sato being the answer - there needs to be more talent on this team.

The minute they can be moved for positive assets, Griff needs to be pulling trade triggers this year. There's just no excuse, as you say, even without Zion. Temple and Sato need to be gone. If we're not ready to seriously invest in Jax and Kira, they need to be gone. Hart is a serviceable rotation guy but if something comes up and he's needed, he can be gone. If you get to the end of this season and all you have left from opening night is Zion/Ingram/JV/Graham/Trey, then so be it.

[As I See It]

If you get to the end of this season and all you have left from opening night is Zion/Ingram/JV/Graham/Trey, then so be it.

Yeah, I guess according to the analytics expert, Herb is a nothing-burger, too!! SMH

[da ThRONe]

I didn't say anything about a playoff spot - in fact, the rough guess I gave regarding what our record might be with Zion was still under .500 and would not currently be a playoff record in the West (I said 7-9 maybe, and the 8th seed in the West is currently 8-8).

The idea that Zion is ''not moving the needle'' right now when he's on court is just flat out not correct, though.

Zion's 2019-20 season, for example. In games without Zion, the Pelicans had a 19-29 record, good for .396 - in a regular 82 game season, that equates to a 32 win pace.. In games with Zion, the Pelicans had an 11-13 record, good for .458. In a regular 82 game season, that equates to a 38 win pace. +6 wins added is pretty good for a single player, that falls within the top 25 of single player wins added in basically any season.

Then compare last year, 2020-21. In games without Zion, the Pels had a 2-9 record, about .182 - equates to about 15 games over an 82 game season. With Zion last year, Pels had a 29-32 record, about .475. That projects to 39 wins over an 82 game season. That is to say, when Zion didn't play last year we were a team that played like a 15 win team. With him, we were playing like a 39 win team. Now of course, Zion wasn't the only person to miss games and some games he missed so did other people, and you have to consider who we played against when he was out versus who we played against when he was in, but when you take all that kind of stuff into account, Basketball Index rated Zion as being worth 8.2 Wins Added last year for the Pelicans.

That's just slightly more than Joel Embiid (8.0), Paul George (7.9) and Lebron James (7.9) and just behind Kawhi Leonard (8.3) and CP3 (8.4).

This is a guy who already contributes massively towards winning when he's on the court. The knock on him is his ability to stay on the court, not the impact he provides to the team when he's on it. In both of the seasons he's been able to play in, even if only limited games, he's already shown that he thoroughly moves the needle for us. Without him, we've been a bottom dweller. With him, we've been playing like a playoff team.

You are saying that you believe we're still a bad team with Zion, yet take exception to the needle moving comment. That IMO is how you define a needle moving player.

[Taker597]

Could we had trade right to Las pick swaps this whole time?

[Pelicanidae]

You are saying that you believe we're still a bad team with Zion, yet take exception to the needle moving comment. That IMO is how you define a needle moving player.

That's ridiculous. If you're an all-time bad team and you can add a player who makes you into a roughly .500 team and potentially a playoff team in a single stroke, that player has moved the needle. You may not have moved the needle from 0-100, but you've moved it from 0-50 and that's still movement.

If your definition of a ''needle mover'' is just someone who can drop into a team on pace to win 15 games and turn them into a title contender, then there's never been a needle mover in NBA history.

If nobody can be counted as a ''needle mover'' unless they can take a team that's currently on pace to win ten games this year and immediately transform them into a +.500 team, then almost nobody has ever been a needle mover. Cause that's what we are right now. We're on pace to win ten games this season. Taking that and making it a near .500 team would be a herculean achievement. If that's the kind of impact you need to be able to cause before you're a needle mover, then the term needle mover needs to be retired because it clearly doesn't apply to actual NBA players, only the kinds of demigods you invent in your mind.

[ragincaucasian]

But there's no way we should be this bad without him. 2-14? Come on. If we were 5-11 or 6-10, I'd be like okay fine, that's bad but I get it. No Zion, Ingram missed a bunch of time as well, fine - not good, but understandable.

2-14 over 16 games? That's just beyond bad. Ingram has played in 9 games and we're 1-8 in games where he's still here, that's inexcusable. At that point we're down, sure, but we do still have an all-star in BI, and JV has been very good for us, and even NAW has been better over the last 4 or 5 games than he was before, but we can't finish out any game? It's silly.

Hold up. I make a statement:

We should not be THIS bad missing one main player. They don't have any excuses left.

You chastise me for it:

I will repeat this, since it apparently needs repeating: when you take a team that is constructed to function around a top 20 player and then remove the top 20 player, they suck.

This is true whether it's the the 2021-22 Pelicans, or the 2018-19 Warriors who - despite still having Klay Thompson, Kevin Durant, and Draymond Green - were a sub .500 team without Stephen Curry.

And now you basically say exactly what I said to begin with?

But there's no way we should be this bad without him. 2-14? Come on. If we were 5-11 or 6-10, I'd be like okay fine, that's bad but I get it. No Zion, Ingram missed a bunch of time as well, fine - not good, but understandable.

2-14 over 16 games? That's just beyond bad. Ingram has played in 9 games and we're 1-8 in games where he's still here, that's inexcusable. At that point we're down, sure, but we do still have an all-star in BI, and JV has been very good for us, and even NAW has been better over the last 4 or 5 games than he was before, but we can't finish out any game? It's silly.

I'm confused.

[Pelicanidae]

Hold up. I make a statement:



You chastise me for it:



And now you basically say exactly what I said to begin with?




I'm confused.

Just to clarify my position cause I'm kind of arguing two points here that are only semi related and I'm mixing them together and making a terrible job of it: us being bad without Zion is completely expected. Even if we were a good team, that would be what you would expect from a team missing their best player.

But we are on pace to win ten games this year. That is beyond 'bad'. If, without Zion, we were on pace to be a 25 win team, that makes sense - teams missing their best player are terrible. Ten is worse than bad. Ten makes me feel like someone on the team is betting on the games or something. Even in my response to your post on the other page I said this:

That said, I do agree we still need more improvements

So I agree with you - that the extent of the losing is absurd even without Zion - while re-emphasising the fact that without Zion we should still expect to be a sub .500 team, just not quite this sub .500. Like, if we were 5-11 or 6-10 right now, I'd be totally understanding of it despite that obviously being a terrible record (it would still have us as a bottom 4 team in the West) because that is what you expect missing your best player. But 2-14 is beyond the pale even for me.

[da ThRONe]

That's ridiculous. If you're an all-time bad team and you can add a player who makes you into a roughly .500 team and potentially a playoff team in a single stroke, that player has moved the needle. You may not have moved the needle from 0-100, but you've moved it from 0-50 and that's still movement.

If your definition of a ''needle mover'' is just someone who can drop into a team on pace to win 15 games and turn them into a title contender, then there's never been a needle mover in NBA history.

If nobody can be counted as a ''needle mover'' unless they can take a team that's currently on pace to win ten games this year and immediately transform them into a +.500 team, then almost nobody has ever been a needle mover. Cause that's what we are right now. We're on pace to win ten games this season. Taking that and making it a near .500 team would be a herculean achievement. If that's the kind of impact you need to be able to cause before you're a needle mover, then the term needle mover needs to be retired because it clearly doesn't apply to actual NBA players, only the kinds of demigods you invent in your mind.

You talk yourself into holes. You just quoted the championship Cavs team record without LeBron to make a point how teams can be built around its main guy. Yet the term needle mover shouldn't exist. Man you do some serious mental gymnastics to defend your position.

[Pelicanidae]

You talk yourself into holes. You just quoted the championship Cavs team record without LeBron to make a point how teams can be built around its main guy. Yet the term needle mover shouldn't exist. Man you do some serious mental gymnastics to defend your position.

Eh, I was unclear and wasn't communicating well, so I clarified what I meant. You want to try and read something deep into that rather than engaging with the clarified position, that's your problem.