What about Lonzo Ball do you see?

[johnpagenola]

Here are all the top 10 PGs ranked by Box Plus Minus from Basketball Reference. He is 10th overall behind some big names!



But what about other things? Here is a graph of the relationship between Free Throw Rate (FTr) and Turnover Percentage (TOV%) for the nba, again from Basketball Reference. PGs are in red and Lonzo Ball is the big red ball to the left. There is practically no one in the nba who is worse in both FTr and TOV% than Lonzo Ball. If we use FTr as a proxy (or substitute) for attacking the basket and getting to the line and TOV% as a proxy for handles he could be said to be the just about the worst combination of aggression (to break down the defense) and control (holding onto the ball) in the nba.

[Stalwart385]

BPM is a weird stat for me. I guess that's a good thing. If you buy into it wholeheartedly you can say for whatever good or bad he's a positive overall. Just too much goes into the BPM outside of just the player for me to buy that much into it. Still not a bad thing.

The second chart I find a bit weird. As in why would you compare those two stats. Doesn't seem like there is much that defining about it. Seems like cherry-picking stats imo. I would find a chart on TOV% vs. AST% and a second chart with FTr and 3PAr more interesting. Those two stats I would just rather look at individually.

The FTr is easy to picture watching the games. Outside of some small stretches, Ball did little to attack the paint. He started getting a bit of mid-range going but even that wasn't enough. He needs to do more there when his 3 isn't falling. For the most part though he was our second best 3P shooter so he embraced that role. He had the 35th highest 3PAr in the league and 15th lowest FTr. I'm fine if he sits on the perimeter... on the days he isn't going 2 for 12. He's an average volume shooter overall but he would be much better if he could better read when to expand his game.

I find the TOV% interesting. He was the 37th worst (16th worst PG) according to basketball reference, which isn't great but not exactly the worst. Just thinking back to the games I'm trying to remember where those primarily came from. I don't think it's a handles issue as much. I'm thinking more of an errant pass issue, or maybe just high-risk passes. Actually when I look at some of the names around him I don't think his TOV% is that big an issue (Lebron and CP3). There are several big name guards much worse. Unlike a few of the guys he doesn't make up for it with a high AST% though. He's only 36th best (25th best PG). Which overall is a bit concerning.

Again I don't think those stats tell you everything. For one he became more of a shooter than pure PG this year. Two assists are hard to come by when the team shoots the ball as poorly as we did (plus point Zion means fewer assists to be had there). And 3 I'm not going to call TOV% handles unless we have a better breakdown. At least my "eye test" doesn't seem to remember a handling issue particularly for Zo (Zion needs to work on that this offseason though).

Looking at those numbers I still think the same. About average overall. Some good stuff and some stuff to get better at.

[luckyman]

There isn't a single definition for BPM. Over time most of them have gotten more robust with regression techniques, but it's still a better stat for offense. Not so much for defense. They main inputs I've seen for defense are still steal% and block%. It's a box stat afterall.

[Pelicanidae]

There isn't a single definition for BPM. Over time most of them have gotten more robust with regression techniques, but it's still a better stat for offense. Not so much for defense. They main inputs I've seen for defense are still steal% and block%. It's a box stat afterall.

Also worth noting that the form of BPM that Basketball Reference uses is BPM 2.0, which updated last year, which has been formulated to weigh steals much more heavily than other defensive rate stats like blocks and defensive rebounds and stuff.

The consequence of this is that if you're a guard who gets a lot of deflections and steals, your DBPM will come out looking a little higher than maybe it should. The ultimate example of this is that DBPM 2.0 ranks Nate McMillan's 1993-4 season as the best defensive season of all time.

Was it a great season, defensively? Unquestionably. Was it by far the best defensive season with the most defensive impact ever? Not really, but that year Nate set the single season record for STL% so there it is.

Lonzo does get a lot of steals and deflections, so his DBPM reflects that, despite his actual defense being much more hit and miss than that metric would imply.

[Impose]

A volume 3pt bomber with reasonable defense, great vision and ball handling, great speed. Dude is going to be a 40% 3pt shooter in one of the next few seasons on 7 attempts per game. Considering he's got reasonable other skills as I've mentioned I see him as a glue guy you keep. But not a max contract guy.

[Pelicanidae]

A volume 3pt bomber with reasonable defense, great vision and ball handling, great speed. Dude is going to be a 40% 3pt shooter in one of the next few seasons on 7 attempts per game. Considering he's got reasonable other skills as I've mentioned I see him as a glue guy you keep. But not a max contract guy.

Serious question: do you mean to say that you think he has a great handle?

Cause I don't think that's true at all.

[AusPel]

A volume 3pt bomber with reasonable defense, great vision and ball handling, great speed. Dude is going to be a 40% 3pt shooter in one of the next few seasons on 7 attempts per game. Considering he's got reasonable other skills as I've mentioned I see him as a glue guy you keep. But not a max contract guy.

He has above average vision in certain situations, but not in general. Also, he's not a great ball handler. If he was, he'd actually drive to the the bucket

[johnpagenola]

I would find a chart on TOV% vs. AST% and a second chart with FTr and 3PAr more interesting.

Somewhat higher than average turnover % and average assist rate:



Low FTr and high 3PAr:



PGs listed in alphabetical order who are better than Lonzo Ball in AST% and TOV% and 3P%:

Cameron Payne
Chris Paul
Damian Lillard
Donovan Mitchell
Jrue Holiday
Kyrie Irving
Malcolm Brogdon
Mike Conley
Stephen Curry