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Thread: You guys, I think we need to pay Lonzo

  1. #626
    Quote Originally Posted by PolishFan View Post
    I have a question to all of you who don’t want Lonzo on this team (or are not willing to pay more than 18). Would you like Ben Simmons on this team? He makes around 33mil. Is he that much better than Lonzo?

    ...yes he is that much better than Lonzo
    Cade Cunningham/Usman Garuba/Scottie Barnes/Moses Moody/Corey Kispert endorser.

    Eye test people: analytics people watch more basketball than you do.

  2. #627
    The Franchise PolishFan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pelicanidae View Post
    ...yes he is that much better than Lonzo
    Can you explain more? He can’t shoot and is a poor free throw shooter. Lonzo is a much much better shooter but much much worse at attacking the rim. Both are good defenders and playmakers. Where is that big difference?

  3. #628
    Quote Originally Posted by PolishFan View Post
    Can you explain more? He can’t shoot and is a poor free throw shooter. Lonzo is a much much better shooter but much much worse at attacking the rim. Both are good defenders and playmakers. Where is that big difference?

    Sure, I'll explain a bit why I think that. You can start with comparing their basic stats. Of course they are far from the whole story but it gives a basic picture.

    Ben Simmons this year: 15/8/7 on 57.9%TS. 17.9PER, +5 Net Rating, .138 ws/48, +2.3 BPM
    Lonzo Ball this year: 14/4/6 on 56.4%TS. 15.6 PER, -1 Net Rating, .095 ws/48, +1.6BPM

    Okay so that's just the very basic outline. But as you can see, Simmons just on the surface is doing better than Lonzo in basically every category. Does this hold up when we look at the advanced statistics?

    Ben Simmons: +3.7 on/off, +1.3 RAPTOR, +2.1 EPM, +5.1 estimated Wins Added, +1.57 LEBRON
    Lonzo Ball: +2.8 on/off, +2.4 RAPTOR, +1.9 EPM, +4.4 estimated Wins Added, +1.39 LEBRON

    So the advanced stats also generally seem to agree that Simmons is having more impact on his team in a positive way than Lonzo is.

    Let's dig into the details of why that might be.

    Firstly, half-court offense. Ben Simmons is not a particularly elite finisher at the rim when he gets there: he shoots about 66% there this year, which isn't much better than Lonzo's 63.1%. The difference is that 51.9% of Simmons' shot attempts come at the rim compared to only 16.6% for Lonzo: this is supported by their relative drive frequencies. Ben Simmons averages about 11.6 drives per game, which as a lead ball handler, is incredibly useful - it opens up passes to the wings by collapsing the defense. 11.6 per game makes Simmons a top 40 driver in the NBA, and as we've already seen from the at-rim percentages he's a real threat to convert that drive into a finish and therefore he needs that defensive attention.

    Lonzo, by comparison, drives about 5.3 times per game, a bit less than half as often, and as we've also seen he's not likely to actually get a shot up at the rim when he does so. This is part of why so many people have pointed out that Lonzo is not a real half-court creator, he's an off-ball auxiliary player: he provides very little impact when it comes to bending the defense around and creating advantageous situations. He's excellent at making the best out of advantages other people have already created, which is why he's one of the best connectors in the league, but the ability to actually force the defense to react and create a play is something Simmons has and Lonzo simply does not. And it's a valuable skill.

    This is also supported by their paint touch frequency, where Simmons gets about 4 paint touches a game compared to 0.8 such touches a game for Lonzo.

    Now, this is not to say that Ben Simmons is some elite half-court playmaker - he's actually only solid at it and, like Lonzo, he excels best in transition. But that's the distinction: Simmons is still fine creating in the half-court whereas Lonzo loses almost all of his on-ball value once you're past the half-court line and becomes an off-ball spot up guy. Which is fine, it has value, but it's not the same value as an on-ball creator.

    It's actually kind of embarrassing for Lonzo that Ben Simmons - who is a guy that has been widely criticised for having stagnated offensively for years - has more half-court impact and versatility than him.

    Then of course you get to the defense. Simply put, Ben Simmons is probably the DPOY this year whereas Lonzo Ball has actually been slightly worse this year than last year by my estimation.

    Saying ''both are good defenders and playmakers'' is true but it kind of ignores the nuance. Simmons is one of the five best defenders in basketball right now whereas Lonzo is just ''quite good'', and Lonzo is a secondary playmaker most of the time due to his complete lack of half-court creation whereas Simmons can be used as a primary creator whenever you need him to be. The distinction in value there is pretty big.

    It's also worth noting that I am not some huge Simmons fan either, I'm one of those people who thinks he's stagnated pretty hard and hasn't developed his game very well on offense. It's just clear that right now if you could only pick one guy, Simmons is clearly the better.

  4. #629
    The Franchise PolishFan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pelicanidae View Post
    Sure, I'll explain a bit why I think that. You can start with comparing their basic stats. Of course they are far from the whole story but it gives a basic picture.

    Ben Simmons this year: 15/8/7 on 57.9%TS. 17.9PER, +5 Net Rating, .138 ws/48, +2.3 BPM
    Lonzo Ball this year: 14/4/6 on 56.4%TS. 15.6 PER, -1 Net Rating, .095 ws/48, +1.6BPM

    Okay so that's just the very basic outline. But as you can see, Simmons just on the surface is doing better than Lonzo in basically every category. Does this hold up when we look at the advanced statistics?

    Ben Simmons: +3.7 on/off, +1.3 RAPTOR, +2.1 EPM, +5.1 estimated Wins Added, +1.57 LEBRON
    Lonzo Ball: +2.8 on/off, +2.4 RAPTOR, +1.9 EPM, +4.4 estimated Wins Added, +1.39 LEBRON

    So the advanced stats also generally seem to agree that Simmons is having more impact on his team in a positive way than Lonzo is.

    Let's dig into the details of why that might be.

    Firstly, half-court offense. Ben Simmons is not a particularly elite finisher at the rim when he gets there: he shoots about 66% there this year, which isn't much better than Lonzo's 63.1%. The difference is that 51.9% of Simmons' shot attempts come at the rim compared to only 16.6% for Lonzo: this is supported by their relative drive frequencies. Ben Simmons averages about 11.6 drives per game, which as a lead ball handler, is incredibly useful - it opens up passes to the wings by collapsing the defense. 11.6 per game makes Simmons a top 40 driver in the NBA, and as we've already seen from the at-rim percentages he's a real threat to convert that drive into a finish and therefore he needs that defensive attention.

    Lonzo, by comparison, drives about 5.3 times per game, a bit less than half as often, and as we've also seen he's not likely to actually get a shot up at the rim when he does so. This is part of why so many people have pointed out that Lonzo is not a real half-court creator, he's an off-ball auxiliary player: he provides very little impact when it comes to bending the defense around and creating advantageous situations. He's excellent at making the best out of advantages other people have already created, which is why he's one of the best connectors in the league, but the ability to actually force the defense to react and create a play is something Simmons has and Lonzo simply does not. And it's a valuable skill.

    This is also supported by their paint touch frequency, where Simmons gets about 4 paint touches a game compared to 0.8 such touches a game for Lonzo.

    Now, this is not to say that Ben Simmons is some elite half-court playmaker - he's actually only solid at it and, like Lonzo, he excels best in transition. But that's the distinction: Simmons is still fine creating in the half-court whereas Lonzo loses almost all of his on-ball value once you're past the half-court line and becomes an off-ball spot up guy. Which is fine, it has value, but it's not the same value as an on-ball creator.

    It's actually kind of embarrassing for Lonzo that Ben Simmons - who is a guy that has been widely criticised for having stagnated offensively for years - has more half-court impact and versatility than him.

    Then of course you get to the defense. Simply put, Ben Simmons is probably the DPOY this year whereas Lonzo Ball has actually been slightly worse this year than last year by my estimation.

    Saying ''both are good defenders and playmakers'' is true but it kind of ignores the nuance. Simmons is one of the five best defenders in basketball right now whereas Lonzo is just ''quite good'', and Lonzo is a secondary playmaker most of the time due to his complete lack of half-court creation whereas Simmons can be used as a primary creator whenever you need him to be. The distinction in value there is pretty big.

    It's also worth noting that I am not some huge Simmons fan either, I'm one of those people who thinks he's stagnated pretty hard and hasn't developed his game very well on offense. It's just clear that right now if you could only pick one guy, Simmons is clearly the better.
    Wow a really impressive answer I’m definitely much more of an eye test fan but even though Ben is better I would still prefer Lonzo at 18mil than Ben at 33mil. I also think Lonzo is more likely to improve than Ben

  5. #630
    Hollygrove 4 Life DroopyDawg's Avatar
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    If Ben Simmons ever became a Pelican that would be Fred Vinson's most difficult project. His first objective would be giving Ben confidence to even shoot the ball.

  6. #631
    Charter Member PELICANSFAN's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pelicanidae View Post
    As a side note, Lonzo's injury history surely has to factor into big money extension talk, right?

    Rookie season: missed 31 games
    Sophomore season: missed 35 games
    Third season: missed 19 games
    This season so far: missed 11 games (20+ games left to play)

    He's played 203 total games out of a potential 297. He's missed nearly a third of his career so far due to injury.
    Certainly an injury history should play into the negotiations. I would hope that would lower his value, but it depends on what other teams think. I think $18 a year is fair. However, when I look at what Adams is making, if I am Lonzo, I want more than that.

  7. #632
    Given the guards/wings on this team are just better or have more potential, best case scenario is a sign-and-trade.

    Otherwise I just don't match any offer for him. Let him walk. His minutes need to be given elswhere.

  8. #633
    Charter Member PELICANSFAN's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by luckyman View Post
    Otherwise I just don't match any offer for him. Let him walk. His minutes need to be given elswhere.
    So, regardless of the offer, you just want to not match?

  9. #634
    Quote Originally Posted by PELICANSFAN View Post
    So, regardless of the offer, you just want to not match?
    I would do everything I could to work out a sign and trade, which I think is workable if the number comes in less than 18MM (unreasonable terms notwithstanding)
    Disclaimer: I would never denigrate or defame Zion Williamson as a man or as a basketball player; he will go down as an NBA great and perhaps a Top 10+ player of all time. Any inference derived from any of my posts to the contrary is your mischaracterization of my words, or a sign of insecurity on your part (perhaps both).

    Respectfully,

    AISI

  10. #635
    Charter Member PELICANSFAN's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by As I See It View Post
    I would do everything I could to work out a sign and trade, which I think is workable if the number comes in less than 18MM (unreasonable terms notwithstanding)
    If it comes in under $18 million, I would keep him (unless he is needed to be dealt in order to execute a trade for another star). Heck, Adams makes nearly that.

  11. #636
    Quote Originally Posted by PELICANSFAN View Post
    If it comes in under $18 million, I would keep him (unless he is needed to be dealt in order to execute a trade for another star). Heck, Adams makes nearly that.
    I couldn't argue with that if you think he fits long term. For me, I have my doubts. I'd rather go all in on someone like Duncan Robinson (at the right price) and ride with "Point Zion" and Kira to run the team.

    I bet Luke Kennard+ could be ours for an 18MM Lonzo Ball.

  12. #637
    Pistol Pete Would Be Proud!!
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    lonzo and jrue stats are about the same...so if jrue can get the money he received for the bucks at his age then lonzo can get the money he want to play for us.....

    yeah someone had to say it....and dae, dont throw your stats at me....

  13. #638
    Quote Originally Posted by 6warddude View Post
    lonzo and jrue stats are about the same...so if jrue can get the money he received for the bucks at his age then lonzo can get the money he want to play for us.....

    yeah someone had to say it....and dae, dont throw your stats at me....
    I'm not going to throw any stats at you. I have no legal right to stop you saying such things, even if I think they are ludicrously ignorant.

  14. #639
    Pistol Pete Would Be Proud!!
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pelicanidae View Post
    I'm not going to throw any stats at you. I have no legal right to stop you saying such things, even if I think they are ludicrously ignorant.
    lol

  15. #640
    Charter Member PELICANSFAN's Avatar
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    While I do not think Ball deserves Holiday money, I can see him warranting getting paid more than Adams will be getting on an annual basis.

  16. #641
    I ********ing despise this thread I made

    Zo does nothing unless he gets hot from three

    I'm very ashamed of myself

  17. #642
    Quote Originally Posted by AusPel View Post
    I ********ing despise this thread I made

    Zo does nothing unless he gets hot from three

    I'm very ashamed of myself
    Don't worry... I've fallen for the Lonzo scam like 4 times... It happens.

  18. #643
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    Quote Originally Posted by AusPel View Post
    I ********ing despise this thread I made

    Zo does nothing unless he gets hot from three

    I'm very ashamed of myself
    I don’t know what was offered for Zo at the deadline, it’d be nice to hear. I doubt the pelicans knew what direction they wanted to go anyway.

  19. #644
    I've seen enough. Time to let him walk and bring in some proper role players for Zion. His impact on this team is overrated and overstated.

  20. #645
    Aaron's All Metro's Avatar
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    I hope this pay Zo talk can finally die down
    SIGN A SF

  21. #646
    For someone who has played as much as Ball has he is pretty dumb or pretty lazy. Leaving Bullock open for a 3 was a stupid mistake. Lost the game w that boneheaded move.

  22. #647
    He really hasn't done much for his value lately, has he? I think it's down to $17m for me, MAX. Would be ok if he walked. I'm sure that number is quite high for some people here.

  23. #648
    I still think we pay him $18-$20M. He, Zion, Kira, and BI just need to build chemistry together, and the world will be able to live as one. 4 guys able to handle the ball is better than one.
    If you Jimmer it, they will come.

  24. #649
    Quote Originally Posted by UNO Gracias View Post
    I still think we pay him $18-$20M. He, Zion, Kira, and BI just need to build chemistry together, and the world will be able to live as one. 4 guys able to handle the ball is better than one.
    Lonzo is not a ballhandler.

  25. #650
    RIP BDJ AUSSIE_PELICAN's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zionite View Post
    For someone who has played as much as Ball has he is pretty dumb or pretty lazy. Leaving Bullock open for a 3 was a stupid mistake. Lost the game w that boneheaded move.
    But....but he has IQ...

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