January 17th - New Orleans Pelicans @ Sacramento Kings - 4-7

[Taker597]

This is a fair point to make.

The Kings DRtg of 121.2 so far this season is not just the worst DRtg of all time, but it's the worst by a huge margin. They're 3.6 points per 100 worse than the next worst team, which is the 2018-19 Cavs. Followed by the 2020-21 Timberwolves.

This was probably the 1st time we got sucked into another team's hand and beat them at their own game. Which we struggle mightily this season when teams corner us to play a certain way.

[Pelicanidae]

He Has a good form, but I don't think he'll be versatile in having a bag full of different shots like KAT or AD. I hope tho. I love Hayes.

I think people often underestimate exactly how ridiculous a shooter KAT is.

List of players 6'11 or taller who have ever shot at least 40% from 3 on at least 7 attempts per game:

- Karl Anthony Towns

That's the list

And he shoots pullups, he shoots coming off movement, off screens.

[As I See It]

If defenders have to start respecting Jax's outside game, that is a seismic shift on this team's ceiling

This

[Taker597]

I think people often underestimate exactly how ridiculous a shooter KAT is.

List of players 6'11 or taller who have ever shot at least 40% from 3 on at least 7 attempts per game:

- Karl Anthony Towns

That's the list

And he shoots pullups, he shoots coming off movement, off screens.

Yeah, I'm thinking like a nice mid range ceiling not perimeter big. KAT has deep bag of moves even if he mad struggles in the playoffs. Which I think people put too much focus on his body of work.

[AusPel]

I think people often underestimate exactly how ridiculous a shooter KAT is.

List of players 6'11 or taller who have ever shot at least 40% from 3 on at least 7 attempts per game:

- Karl Anthony Towns

That's the list

And he shoots pullups, he shoots coming off movement, off screens.

Obviously Jax won't get there

But I think he can possibly be Marc Gasol from range

Or Vucevic. Either would be a great result

[luckyman]

I think people often underestimate exactly how ridiculous a shooter KAT is.

List of players 6'11 or taller who have ever shot at least 40% from 3 on at least 7 attempts per game:

- Karl Anthony Towns

That's the list

And he shoots pullups, he shoots coming off movement, off screens.

That is a completely quantitative argument with an arbitrary cut off point. For that reason alone KAT cannot be above Dirk or even Rasheed Wallace imo. But I'm not getting drawn into that.

But yeah Jax has that potential still.

[AusPel]

Mac and Shamit having a little tiff on Twitter

Magic Johnson has taken over Shamit's account for the rest of the night https://t.co/tBz0fpLmMO

— Michael McNamara (@michael_stokley) January 18, 2021

What does this mean for the future of BourbonStreetShots?

[Pelicanidae]

Obviously Jax won't get there

But I think he can possibly be Marc Gasol from range

Or Vucevic. Either would be a great result

Oh totally, if he could be Vucevic (34.9% from 3 on about 3 a game over the last 4 years) then that's huge for him, and huge for the team as well. That's good enough that you can't just abandon him, and on enough volume for it to start counting. Long way to go for that though. Biggest step is for him to start taking them: at least once a game I see him stranded on the perimeter with nobody moving around and he's picked up his dribble and he has to just wait for someone else to move. In those moments, he should just pull 'em.

[AusPel]

Oh totally, if he could be Vucevic (34.9% from 3 on about 3 a game over the last 4 years) then that's huge for him, and huge for the team as well. That's good enough that you can't just abandon him, and on enough volume for it to start counting. Long way to go for that though. Biggest step is for him to start taking them: at least once a game I see him stranded on the perimeter with nobody moving around and he's picked up his dribble and he has to just wait for someone else to move. In those moments, he should just pull 'em.

Agreed. If he's still doing that in 2 years time then it's a fail

[Pelicanidae]

That is a completely quantitative argument with an arbitrary cut off point. For that reason alone KAT cannot be above Dirk or even Rasheed Wallace imo. But I'm not getting drawn into that.

But yeah Jax has that potential still.

If you drop it to 38% and 5 a game, that list increases to

- Karl Anthony Towns
- Jaren Jackson
- Channing Frye.

If you drop it to 38% and 4 a game, it adds

- Dirk Nowitzki
- Troy Murphy
- Kristaps Porzingis
- Mehmet Okur

So yeah, even if you drop the volume massively you don't add many names. Obviously not dropping the 3pt% because if you're shooting less than 38% from 3 you're not an elite shooter, so trying to find the list of elite shooters requires a floor. Of course it's an arbitrary cut off point because anyone setting any statistical boundary is setting an arbitrary cut off point. Unless you think you know the objective limit at which someone passes between low to high volume shooting, in which case I'd love to hear it.

[AusPel]

How about peak Shawn Marion for Hayes shooting ceiling?

Was a 40% shooter from deep at his best

[Snarly]

I'll be happy with 36-38% at 3 attempts a game to go with good defense, rebounding, shot protection and rim running/rolling.

[Pelicanidae]

Feels like asking for all of that might be a bit much.

I'll take the rim running, rebounding he's flashed already, the passing, and solid defense. I'd love 34% from 3 on decent volume too but frankly if you're getting everything else then I can leave it.

[AusPel]

Feels like asking for all of that might be a bit much.

I'll take the rim running, rebounding he's flashed already, the passing, and solid defense. I'd love 34% from 3 on decent volume too but frankly if you're getting everything else then I can leave it.

The situation where Jax's outside shot has to be respected is best case scenario

That would have to come as a function of proving he's a good shooter

[luckyman]

If you drop it to 38% and 5 a game, that list increases to

- Karl Anthony Towns
- Jaren Jackson
- Channing Frye.

If you drop it to 38% and 4 a game, it adds

- Dirk Nowitzki
- Troy Murphy
- Kristaps Porzingis
- Mehmet Okur

So yeah, even if you drop the volume massively you don't add many names. Obviously not dropping the 3pt% because if you're shooting less than 38% from 3 you're not an elite shooter, so trying to find the list of elite shooters requires a floor. Of course it's an arbitrary cut off point because anyone setting any statistical boundary is setting an arbitrary cut off point. Unless you think you know the objective limit at which someone passes between low to high volume shooting, in which case I'd love to hear it.

Again, all quantitative. The point being KAT has only been in a playoff series ONCE in his entire career, and you are elevating him above bigs that were known for shooting 3s on playoff teams and title contenders. And hit them at big moments of those games.

For example, KAT shot 42% during the regular season in his lone playoff year (2017/2018), which dropped to 27% in their playoff series that same year. They lost that series 4-1.

Meanwhile, bigs like Dirk and Rasheed were nailing big shot 3s throughout the playoffs and championship series. KAT has gained those numbers in too many games that don't matter, being on a lottery team most of his career.

Thats why, imo, it's disrespectful to those I've named, to solely look at his shooting the way you are. Especially to Dirk. When KAT starts holding those numbers into the playoffs like those other guys, then' it's a debate.

Thats all I'm going to say.

Carry on.

[Pelicanidae]

The situation where Jax's outside shot has to be respected is best case scenario

That would have to come as a function of proving he's a good shooter

Being a 34% shooter on good volume (3+ is solid volume for a big) is more valuable than being a 40% shooter on 0.5 a game, I think we'd all agree. It's a balance between volume and accuracy.

Of course in a perfect world, he'd be a 40% shooter on 10 a game, but at a certain point you're asking for too much. As I just listed, only 7 players in NBA history of Jax's size have shot 38% or better on 4 or more a game. Of course I agree that if he became a historically good big man shooter that would be great, but I feel like asking for it is a bit presumptuous.

[AusPel]

Being a 34% shooter on good volume (3+ is solid volume for a big) is more valuable than being a 40% shooter on 0.5 a game, I think we'd all agree. It's a balance between volume and accuracy.

Of course in a perfect world, he'd be a 40% shooter on 10 a game, but at a certain point you're asking for too much. As I just listed, only 7 players in NBA history of Jax's size have shot 38% or better on 4 or more a game. Of course I agree that if he became a historically good big man shooter that would be great, but I feel like asking for it is a bit presumptuous.

I'm not asking for a historical shooter. Just one that's respected enough to have gravitas

[Pelicanidae]

I'm not asking for a historical shooter. Just one that's respected enough to have gravitas

That's fine but if you're asking a 7 footer for 38% on 3 a game, as Snarly was, then you are asking for a historical shooter.

[new city champ]

Thought that was as bouncy and explosive as I’ve seen Zion since before the bubble, maybe since pre-knee injury. It had been a while since he added anything to his highlight reel...

[AusPel]

Thought that was as bouncy and explosive as I’ve seen Zion since before the bubble, maybe since pre-knee injury. It had been a while since he added anything to his highlight reel...

Agree with this assertion

I don't think it's any coincidence that his explosion is returning with him getting in better shape

[As I See It]

If JAX ever could get somewhat proficient from the perimeter, then help on the high screen and roll would have to come from the weakside (defenders wouldn't abandon JAX on 'switch for help'). This would open up either the skinny three from the corner or the driving lanes in the paint. This, alone would change the whole offensive dynamic of the team.

[AusPel]

I like how Mac posits himself as not a fan but an neutral observer, but his thoughts and opinions on players swing wildly as much as any emotional fan

He's completely back on board the Zion bandwagon now

[new city champ]

That's fine but if you're asking a 7 footer for 38% on 3 a game, as Snarly was, then you are asking for a historical shooter.

A Jaxon Vucevic would be awesome. I’d settle for an approximation of his fellow Longhorn, Lamarcus Aldridge...

[AusPel]

If JAX ever could get somewhat proficient from the perimeter, then help on the high screen and roll would have to come from the weakside (defenders wouldn't abandon JAX on 'switch for help'). This would open up either the skinny three from the corner or the driving lanes in the paint. This, alone would change the whole offensive dynamic of the team.

Exactly. I alluded to this earlier in the thread

[luckyman]

It's going to be really interesting to see what SVG does when Lonzo is back. If he inserts him back in the starting lineup, I might not watch the game.

Even when NAW/Kira aren't shooting well, they do other things you need guards to do.

If Lonzo can be traded now I pretty much do it for peanuts.