Buddy return???

[MichaelMcNamara]

I don't think I'm doing that Boston trade. If you said it was Grant Williams, I'd be in. Otherwise, I think I'd rather hold Zo, even if it means potentially losing him for less later on. I think there's more scenarios in which his trade value increases this season than decreases, so I'll roll that dice if the alternative is basically a mid 20's pick and some cap flexibility.

I dont see how it increases and we move on from him.

If he is playing well, then we believe more in him too and moving him would make players on your current roster be like "WTF? - I thought we were trying to win and he is playing well, and we moved him?!" -- not gonna happen IMO

If he plays bad or even average, he has no value. He is an expiring at that point with a 14 mil QO - which the team that gets him would be dump to offer. So, he is an expiring and you dont get picks and/or young players for expirings.

So, you have to hope for him to play well. But then, if he does play well his asking price goes up and his asking price is always gonna be 20% higher than his actual value because of where he was drafted. It truly is a no win scenario IMO. No matter how he plays, you are left with a series of non-ideal options. Which is why I have been arguing to move on since last December. When you look at the end and work backwards there is almost no realistic scenario where it plays out well.

[Pelicanidae]

My favorite Lonzo trade would be:

Clippers get: Lonzo
Celtics get: Lou Williams (into part of their TPE)
Pels get: Semi Ojeleye, Mfiondu Kabengele, Pistons future 2nd rounder (from LA), Celtics 2021 first

Ojeleye can help a bit as a backup forward, Kabengele is a lotto ticket that fits if he develops. Two more picks and the interesting part of this trade is that you are now about 7 million away from the tax line, so if guys come available after cuts or an overseas guy looks good, etc you can go get him with a big chunk of the MLE. You also have created a TPE that lasts a year and/or you can make another trade and actually take more salary back without worrying about the tax

Ojeleye and Kabengele are both terrible, is part of the issue. In terms of the framework (the cash saved, the picks) then it's more intriguing.

[pelafanatic]

For me, at a certain point, I think we need to value on court prediction a little bit. I love the process, etc etc, but at what point does Lonzo's on-court production for even one season outweigh a mid to late 20's pick. That's the main reason why I'd like to hold him. I think he does positively impact winning, even if only moderately.

[pelafanatic]

I dont see how it increases and we move on from him.

If he is playing well, then we believe more in him too and moving him would make players on your current roster be like "WTF? - I thought we were trying to win and he is playing well, and we moved him?!" -- not gonna happen IMO

If he plays bad or even average, he has no value. He is an expiring at that point with a 14 mil QO - which the team that gets him would be dump to offer. So, he is an expiring and you dont get picks and/or young players for expirings.

So, you have to hope for him to play well. But then, if he does play well his asking price goes up and his asking price is always gonna be 20% higher than his actual value because of where he was drafted. It truly is a no win scenario IMO. No matter how he plays, you are left with a series of non-ideal options. Which is why I have been arguing to move on since last December. When you look at the end and work backwards there is almost no realistic scenario where it plays out well.

By far the most likely positive scenario for Lonzo that you are leaving out is that he plays well enough to become a fringe-centerpiece in a trade for a star. I think that's the end-goal for the Pels FO. That 11 mil combines really nicely with JJ and Melli's contracts to go out and get pretty much whoever you want.

A team like the Wizards could absolutely convince their fanbase of a Russ-Ball backcourt if things go south with Beal. What if something happens with the Raptors and they decide they need to move on from Siakam? TWolves could implode. I could go on and on. The point is, Lonzo is your best chance at a centerpiece currently on the roster. He's a guy with potential, up for an extension, and he brings attention to a franchise of which some will desperately need.

Additionally, the Pels can easily sell that to players and fans.

If it doesn't work out, then you missed an opportunity at a pick in the twenties, but for a guy who was yelling about opportunity-cost for the Adams trade, you should be applying the same principles here.

If the goal is to trade for a third star, you have to have a centerpiece in that deal. Lonzo is currently our best shot at that piece.

[AusPel]

By far the most likely positive scenario for Lonzo that you are leaving out is that he plays well enough to become a fringe-centerpiece in a trade for a star. I think that's the end-goal for the Pels FO. That 11 mil combines really nicely with JJ and Melli's contracts to go out and get pretty much whoever you want.

A team like the Wizards could absolutely convince their fanbase of a Russ-Ball backcourt if things go south with Beal. What if something happens with the Raptors and they decide they need to move on from Siakam? TWolves could implode. I could go on and on. The point is, Lonzo is your best chance at a centerpiece currently on the roster. He's a guy with potential, up for an extension, and he brings attention to a franchise of which some will desperately need.

Additionally, the Pels can easily sell that to players and fans.

If it doesn't work out, then you missed an opportunity at a pick in the twenties, but for a guy who was yelling about opportunity-cost for the Adams trade, you should be applying the same principles here.

If the goal is to trade for a third star, you have to have a centerpiece in that deal. Lonzo is currently our best shot at that piece.

Expecting a star to become available before the trade deadline isn't realistic IMO. Nor is your take on Lonzo to have improved significantly in the short off season

[pelafanatic]

Expecting a star to become available before the trade deadline isn't realistic IMO. Nor is your take on Lonzo to have improved significantly in the short off season

Where did I say Zo improved significantly?

If you never plan for a star to become available, then you'll never be ready when one does.

[AusPel]

Where did I say Zo improved significantly?

If you never plan for a star to become available, then you'll never be ready when one does.

To become a fringe centrepiece in a trade he will have had to

[pelafanatic]

To become a fringe centrepiece in a trade he will have had to

I don't believe he will, but a Celtics 2021 first is worth the risk IMO. Like I said, if its Grant Williams and that first I'm all in

[PolishFan]

Where did I say Zo improved significantly?

If you never plan for a star to become available, then you'll never be ready when one does.

Good post

[PELICANSFAN]

Would Clippers want Ball? What about something with Knicks whereby we get the Mavs 2021 pick and a player with not much value to Knicks (Knox maybe)? Gives is a project at 3/4 and a 1st while saving $5-$6 million on cap. I know Knox has been beyond terrible, but would be a young former lottery pick to take a flier on along with a 21 pick.

[MichaelMcNamara]

By far the most likely positive scenario for Lonzo that you are leaving out is that he plays well enough to become a fringe-centerpiece in a trade for a star. I think that's the end-goal for the Pels FO. That 11 mil combines really nicely with JJ and Melli's contracts to go out and get pretty much whoever you want.

A team like the Wizards could absolutely convince their fanbase of a Russ-Ball backcourt if things go south with Beal. What if something happens with the Raptors and they decide they need to move on from Siakam? TWolves could implode. I could go on and on. The point is, Lonzo is your best chance at a centerpiece currently on the roster. He's a guy with potential, up for an extension, and he brings attention to a franchise of which some will desperately need.

Additionally, the Pels can easily sell that to players and fans.

If it doesn't work out, then you missed an opportunity at a pick in the twenties, but for a guy who was yelling about opportunity-cost for the Adams trade, you should be applying the same principles here.

If the goal is to trade for a third star, you have to have a centerpiece in that deal. Lonzo is currently our best shot at that piece.

If you think that is a likely scenario...like even 2 percent chance, then there is no middle ground for us to have in a convo

[MichaelMcNamara]

Would Clippers want Ball? What about something with Knicks whereby we get the Mavs 2021 pick and a player with not much value to Knicks (Knox maybe)? Gives is a project at 3/4 and a 1st while saving $5-$6 million on cap. I know Knox has been beyond terrible, but would be a young former lottery pick to take a flier on along with a 21 pick.

I would happily do that one. And like the one I proposed with Clippers, I wouldn't care about the player coming back

When you trade Lomzo, the real.players coming back are Kira and NAW. They are getting added touches and minutes. Those are the players that matter

[AusPel]

I would happily do that one. And like the one I proposed with Clippers, I wouldn't care about the player coming back

When you trade Lomzo, the real.players coming back are Kira and NAW. They are getting added touches and minutes. Those are the players that matter

Lomzo eh

[Pelicanidae]

Lomzo eh

Lomzo Small

[redrum]

I think Lonzo has to be traded, and the sooner the better.

If I was the coach my starting 5 would be Bledsoe, Redick, Adams, BI, and Zion.
The bench unit would include Kira, NAW, Jaxson, Hart, Melli, Hernangomez, and whoever else is ready to contribute.
If you want to start Hart at the 2 with Redick as a 6th man, I can roll with that, but i just can't see how having Lonzo on this team plays out well.

Lonzo is a very limited player making $11 million this year in a walk year and appears to believe he is a star. He is a widely average 3 point shooter who is borderline useless in halfcourt sets, can barely make 1 out of every two free throws, refuses to attack the basket, and only plays d sometimes. Besides all of that he is gonna want to be paid as an NBA all-star next year despite the fact he doesn't take basketball more seriously than his celebrity, aka Whatchamacallit on The Masked Singer. Take advantage of that perceived celebrity and get what you can before it is to late.

On the court or playing with the cap, I can only see the Pels brightest future minus Lonzo.

[johnpagenola]

I think Lonzo has to be traded, and the sooner the better.

On the court or playing with the cap, I can only see the Pels brightest future minus Lonzo.

OK. But what is the market now for Lonzo? And can that market get better if he is used prior to the trade deadline in the roles he can play?

[AusPel]

OK. But what is the market now for Lonzo? And can that market get better if he is used prior to the trade deadline in the roles he can play?

Could easily get better

[MichaelMcNamara]

How can it get better and the Pels trade him?

Lets assume he can be the guy he was the month before the bubbled but for two and a half months. Okay, that's a solid starter. When teams look into trading him, they are going to ask his agent what he expects the next contract will look like. Rich Paul will say 22-25 mil per. At which point teams won't see that as a positive asset to trade for. And if he is really, really good somehow...say 20 percent better than he has ever been, then the Pels can't justify trading him for the offers that will be out there.

When you start at the end with Lonzo, it is so clear to see that this will play out with either: him leaving and us getting little to nothing, him being traded next year after signing QO for little to nothing, or us being forced to overpay him.

I can't realistically see any other way it plays out. But because most people hate selling something at what they perceive as less than optimal value, they want to hold on for that threading the needle scenario where everything breaks right and we sell him at peak value to some desperate team.

It was the same argument people made every year with Gordon. Get him healthy, showcase him and sell him at a higher value than he has today. But it never happened and it killed team chemistry and it prevented other guys from getting opportunity.

[PELICANSFAN]

How can it get better and the Pels trade him?

Lets assume he can be the guy he was the month before the bubbled but for two and a half months. Okay, that's a solid starter. When teams look into trading him, they are going to ask his agent what he expects the next contract will look like. Rich Paul will say 22-25 mil per. At which point teams won't see that as a positive asset to trade for. And if he is really, really good somehow...say 20 percent better than he has ever been, then the Pels can't justify trading him for the offers that will be out there.

When you start at the end with Lonzo, it is so clear to see that this will play out with either: him leaving and us getting little to nothing, him being traded next year after signing QO for little to nothing, or us being forced to overpay him.

I can't realistically see any other way it plays out. But because most people hate selling something at what they perceive as less than optimal value, they want to hold on for that threading the needle scenario where everything breaks right and we sell him at peak value to some desperate team.

It was the same argument people made every year with Gordon. Get him healthy, showcase him and sell him at a higher value than he has today. But it never happened and it killed team chemistry and it prevented other guys from getting opportunity.

Doesn't matter what any of us think though. All that matters is what Griffin and SVG see as his value to the team. It seems like they see value. Not sure if that is his play or his relationship with BI or a combination. It may just be they are hoping he somehow becomes the player that was he was expected to be when selected #2 overall.

[AusPel]

It does seem we are backed into a corner with Lonzo, being forced to overpay him the worst outcome. You might be able to extract a protected 1st from the Knicks for him, because they still don't have anyone remotely capable of running an offense for a full game. This could either be the best or worst destination for Ball.

Ok that's not completely true, they have Payton.

Didn't you say he'd be traded already if not for keeping Ingram happy?

[As I See It]

It does seem we are backed into a corner with Lonzo, being forced to overpay him the worst outcome. You might be able to extract a protected 1st from the Knicks for him, because they still don't have anyone remotely capable of running an offense for a full game. This could either be the best or worst destination for Ball.

Ok that's not completely true, they have Payton.

Didn't you say he'd be traded already if not for keeping Ingram happy?

I'd happily take an unprotected, 2021, Knick, First Round Draft Choice for Lonzo. That choice could easily be a Top Three Pick in a loaded draft.

[AusPel]

I'd happily take an unprotected, 2021, Knick, First Round Draft Choice for Lonzo. That choice could easily be a Top Three Pick in a loaded draft.

You don't think the Knicks see that? Highly unlikely it's unprotected. Like 0.00001% chance

More likely it's a future protected 1st

[pelafanatic]

I still like the Lonzo fit a bit more than you guys. I'm confident in NAW, but I think the defense, rebounding, shooting off the catch, and transition offense of Lonzo is valuable to this team right now while Kira grows (especially in a shortened offseason). If the cost is a late late 1st round pick and some end of the bench guys, maybe a trade later for a 7th man, I'm fine with just holding Lonzo.

Btw, just to kind of end this, Lonzo will not be traded. He also will not sign an extension. He will be a Pel to start the year.

[AusPel]

I still like the Lonzo fit a bit more than you guys. I'm confident in NAW, but I think the defense, rebounding, shooting off the catch, and transition offense of Lonzo is valuable to this team right now while Kira grows (especially in a shortened offseason). If the cost is a late late 1st round pick and some end of the bench guys, maybe a trade later for a 7th man, I'm fine with just holding Lonzo.

Btw, just to kind of end this, Lonzo will not be traded. He also will not sign an extension. He will be a Pel to start the year.

Low chance he's traded any time other than close to the trade deadline

[pelafanatic]

Low chance he's traded any time other than close to the trade deadline

Yea this is what I meant, if I wasn't clear