Pelicans want Steven Adams

[Pelifan]

The acquisition and opportunity cost of Adams alone is frickin insane:

29 mill cap hit
Can't use MLE or BAE
Hill
1st
2 very good seconds
Buh bye Kenny

For an expiring guy at a position OKC has a log jam. For a team having a huge fire sale.

And then there's the huge black cloud over what lines in our future with him

This has potential to be worse than the Asik move.

MLE, BAE, Hill and Kenny aren't longterm things. We also didnt give up our own pick this time, which is big. More than anything I think Adams was a bet that defensive culture matters. If Adams can help get this team to a top 10 defensive team every year like he did in OKC and gets the young guys to buy in there he will more than pay his cost even if he's just here 1 season. Plus I dont know if this needs to be said but he's a lot better than Asik.

However if Adams has an inconsistent season like Favors, declines and gets locked up to an expensive contract, yea it's bad.

We overpaid for sure though. I really don't know how we couldn't negotiate a better deal. That's kind of a big fail. The 10 million in salary difference between what the pelicans sent out and brought in is already almost worth the cost of Adams.

[Pelicanidae]

I wouldn't assume this. And I think it's this piece that's important to viewing the Adams deal.

What are the chances we head into FA next season with 2 all-stars under the age of 25?

What does next free agency have to do with anything? Adams' contract is expiring: having it provides us with the guarantee that we'll have nearly $30m in cap next summer. Now of course, the odds that any of the players worth that kind of money come to New Orleans are miniscule, but the money is there if we can make use of it, whether that's on a star, or absorbing an imbalanced trade, or just doing regular FA stuff.

If anything, there's an argument that acquiring Adams' contract sets us up particularly well for next year's free agency.

[pelafanatic]

A bunch of guys trying to flex their business degrees in here.

Talking about opportunity cost is entirely meaningless if you don’t know the available options. Seeing as I don’t think Griff is in this forum, all this speculation is coming across as petty.

Guys are ring chasing this year. We have a ton of flexibility next year. Relax. This is so hilariously far from the Asia deal

[Primetime]

What does next free agency have to do with anything? Adams' contract is expiring: having it provides us with the guarantee that we'll have nearly $30m in cap next summer. Now of course, the odds that any of the players worth that kind of money come to New Orleans are miniscule, but the money is there if we can make use of it, whether that's on a star, or absorbing an imbalanced trade, or just doing regular FA stuff.

If anything, there's an argument that acquiring Adams' contract sets us up particularly well for next year's free agency.

This was my point. If you retain Hill and sign a MLE player for more than a year, you're still taking money out of upcoming years. At the end of day, nothing that Griff has done has been for the short term, so until Adams get re-signed to 20+, I don't think there's much to worry about.

And then I don't think the chances are as small as we think they are, in terms of a name FA heading this way. We are a small market no question, but we're also a key player in the TV ratings game with 2 all-stars under 25.

We need to get into the playoffs and generate momentum.

[Taker597]

Man... When do we get player interviews?

[AusPel]

What's the better outcome this season?

1. Adams balls out massively and commands a 20mil+ contract or
2. Adams is average to worse to the point that we're happy if we don't even re-sign him, meaning we wasted all those resources to get him, essentially meaning we paid Hill, a 1st, and 2 seconds to get 30mil cap space

[Pelicanidae]

What's the better outcome this season?

1. Adams balls out massively and commands a 20mil+ contract or
2. Adams is average to worse to the point that we're happy if we don't even re-sign him, meaning we wasted all those resources to get him, essentially meaning we paid Hill, a 1st, and 2 seconds to get 30mil cap space

Well I suppose it depends what you mean by ''Adams balls out massively''.

If you mean ''he plays at such a high calibre that he legitimately makes a real argument to deserve $20m'' then that's fine. If he's suddenly playing on par with a Jokic or something then yeah you pay him. That seems unlikely, but it's a thing.

The second point is again, I think, a misjudgment. Firstly, it implies that his time on the team will be/would be entirely summative: in reality, he could easily play the year, leave at the end of it, and still have not been a waste of resources because of the role he plays in development and cultural improvement. Secondly, it's a decision we can't really judge because we would have to see what the plan is for that cap space before we know. If, for example, we pay Hill, a 1st, and 2 seconds to get $30m in cap space and then we use that $30m as the primary room to sign Giannis, then obviously that's not a waste. Now, I don't think that we are going to sign Giannis, that was just an extreme example, but when you make a move that ends in that much cap you can't really judge it until you know what you can do with the opportunity-value that it buys you.

[AusPel]

Well I suppose it depends what you mean by ''Adams balls out massively''.

If you mean ''he plays at such a high calibre that he legitimately makes a real argument to deserve $20m'' then that's fine. If he's suddenly playing on par with a Jokic or something then yeah you pay him. That seems unlikely, but it's a thing.

The second point is again, I think, a misjudgment. Firstly, it implies that his time on the team will be/would be entirely summative: in reality, he could easily play the year, leave at the end of it, and still have not been a waste of resources because of the role he plays in development and cultural improvement. Secondly, it's a decision we can't really judge because we would have to see what the plan is for that cap space before we know. If, for example, we pay Hill, a 1st, and 2 seconds to get $30m in cap space and then we use that $30m as the primary room to sign Giannis, then obviously that's not a waste. Now, I don't think that we are going to sign Giannis, that was just an extreme example, but when you make a move that ends in that much cap you can't really judge it until you know what you can do with the opportunity-value that it buys you.

No, you can't know outcomes that haven't happened, but you can make projections and educated guesses as to what your preference is.

[Pelicanidae]

No, you can't know outcomes that haven't happened, but you can make projections and educated guesses as to what your preference is.

Sure, I'm just saying that the two options you've presented aren't the only two options available, and that it's hard to decide between the two you've offered because of how hypothetical they are.

For example, a third option might be:

3) He plays well, but only at the level of his usual play, and when his contract comes up for renewal he is forced to take a pay-cut due to a smaller market for centres and the number of superstars in FA eating up the majority of cap. We sign him to a relatively team friendly deal between $15-18m a year, in the same way that Millsap resigned with the Nuggets for $10m this FA after years of making $30m+

Which I think is a real possibility, and would also be an outcome I'd be happy with.

[GuardianAngel25]

What if he wants 15 mil+ to re-sign? That's too expensive to have tied up in the centre position.

There was a lot of opportunity cost in getting him how we did

By that point Hayes should be further developed and we won?t need Adams. If we do feel the need to resign him then that means he worked like a charm and deserves it. I still think Hayes is the future at center and that might not be now due to how raw he is. I?ll bet by year 3 he will be the starter and I don?t think trading for Adams this year changes That.. Having a season to be groomed behind Adams and go up against him everyday in practice is probably the best thing for his career. I can?t wait to have these guys rotating with each other.

[AusPel]

By that point Hayes should be further developed and we won?t need Adams. If we do feel the need to resign him then that means he worked like a charm and deserves it. I still think Hayes is the future at center and that might not be now due to how raw he is. I?ll bet by year 3 he will be the starter and I don?t think trading for Adams this year changes That.. Having a season to be groomed behind Adams and go up against him everyday in practice is probably the best thing for his career. I can?t wait to have these guys rotating with each other.

Are you saying Hayes will be ready to start next season?

[lionelmandrake]

Just a quick question...why is everyone so down on Bledsoe? He has made two all-nba defensive teams (one first and one second). He makes less than Jrue did and had a higher PER last year. Can someone provide some advanced metrics as to why he is so garbage we would prefer to dump him instead of Hill. I have a feeling Bledsoe will help win more games this season than Hill would.

[Darkhorse985]

Just a quick question...why is everyone so down on Bledsoe? He has made two all-nba defensive teams (one first and one second). He makes less than Jrue did and had a higher PER last year. Can someone provide some advanced metrics as to why he is so garbage we would prefer to dump him instead of Hill. I have a feeling Bledsoe will help win more games this season than Hill would.

I agree. A lot of people on here are treating him like he is trash, when he is currently the best guard on our team. He is not that much of a drop off from Jrue. Jrue is better but not astronomically.

[Eman5805]

I think a lot of what becomes of the trade depends on the kind of player that Zion, not Adams, becomes. I know what Adams is. But if Zion becomes playmaker. Someone who has the ball in his hand and creates his own offense, then Adams setting screens could be deadly.

Plus there's that play Gentry had us run that got Zion and Ingram free to attack the basket. There's no reason we can't incorporate that into the current offense.

[AusPel]

2 years 35 mil extension

[Taker597]

2 years 35 mil extension

Good move.

[Darkhorse985]

I like the extension. It’s a reasonable price for at minimum an above average starting center for the next 3 years.

[msusousaphone]

Just a quick question...why is everyone so down on Bledsoe? He has made two all-nba defensive teams (one first and one second). He makes less than Jrue did and had a higher PER last year. Can someone provide some advanced metrics as to why he is so garbage we would prefer to dump him instead of Hill. I have a feeling Bledsoe will help win more games this season than Hill would.

I think it's more to do with their hope in the young guys Bledsoe will keep off the court as opposed to a dislike of Bledsoe. Kira, Zo, Hart, NAW all have potential of being that core we want established in 2 to 4 years. Throw fan favorite JJ on top of that and I think it's mostly people want Bledsoe moved so that the kids can take over.

Bledsoe could certainly show them a lot, though.

[Taker597]

I think it's more to do with their hope in the young guys Bledsoe will keep off the court as opposed to a dislike of Bledsoe. Kira, Zo, Hart, NAW all have potential of being that core we want established in 2 to 4 years. Throw fan favorite JJ on top of that and I think it's mostly people want Bledsoe moved so that the kids can take over.

Bledsoe could certainly show them a lot, though.

I don't remember anyone being a big fan of him. Most people don't like playoff stinkers. Yet, Bledsoe is a good defender. I think he may thrive with SVG aslong he avoid his horrible catch and shoot.

[Pelicanidae]

Thanks, mate. �� pic.twitter.com/zBf54zcaIO

— OKC THUNDER (@okcthunder) November 24, 2020

[PELICANSFAN]

Personally, I think the trade and his 3 year salary is a bit rich. 3 years/$65 million while giving up Hill, a 1st and 2 2nds is pretty rich. He is a good, not great center. He also seems to be an "old" 27 as he takes a beating. Not many teams are investing that much in a center like Adams. I like him because of his hustle and ability to do all the dirty work. However, not sure I would have paid that high price in salary and picks/players.

[Pelicanidae]

Personally, I think the trade and his 3 year salary is a bit rich. 3 years/$65 million while giving up Hill, a 1st and 2 2nds is pretty rich. He is a good, not great center. He also seems to be an "old" 27 as he takes a beating. Not many teams are investing that much in a center like Adams. I like him because of his hustle and ability to do all the dirty work. However, not sure I would have paid that high price in salary and picks/players.

Again, just saying ''a first'' misrepresents the value of the pick because not all firsts are equal. It was about as low a value first round pick as you can get: multiple years in the future, belonging to a team that will very probably still be very good at that point if not better than they are already, and protected. So it's really not a high value loss.

Secondly, not many teams are investing that much in centres at all, but when you look at the going market rate for non-superstar centres, you find that Adams' contract (particularly the extension) is very much in line for what starter calibre centres go for: the extension years, for example, are cheaper than Myles Turner, Domantas Sabonis, and Clint Capela, and only slightly more than someone like Jonas Valanciunas or Brook Lopez. It's very much an average market price: exactly the sort of money teams are investing in centres. And, frankly, he's better than several of those guys: I would rather have Adams than Turner, Capela, or Valanciunas, for example.

[As I See It]

It light of the alternative. Adams is a massive upgrade. He is the anthesis of JAX.

One is a brick wall defensively...the other is crepe paper defensively
One is a 270 pound beast...the other is 220 pound man-child
One has 466 NBA starts...the other has but 14.
One is a cagey veteran who's seen it all...the other is a 'deer in the headlights'.
One has a wealth of playoff experience...the other has none.
One is amazingly consistent...the other is best described as 'Flash or Crash'

That said, for the here and now, it's a no brainer...three years from now, let's talk.

[WildlifeAirGrp]

I did see this which is pretty cool

[Pelicanidae]

I did see this which is pretty cool

That is neat