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Thread: 2021 NBA Draft Discussion

  1. #101
    Quote Originally Posted by Pelicanidae View Post
    Haven't watched the USC game yet, but I just thought I'd check the box score to see how Mobley was doing and uh yep, he's doing the thing.

    22/10 with 4 blocks on 8/12 shooting, including 2/4 from 3. Such a good big man prospect, honestly. Top 5 this year, probably top 3 unless there are some unexpected surges.
    This draft, as usual, does not appear to be as strong as we had first thought.

    It's Cade, Suggs, and Mobley, and a loooooot of meh. I'm not sure how we're supposed to evaluate Kuminga or Green this season, either. People are going to long for the days of depth in the 2020 draft after this is all said and done

  2. #102
    Quote Originally Posted by pelafanatic View Post
    This draft, as usual, does not appear to be as strong as we had first thought.

    It's Cade, Suggs, and Mobley, and a loooooot of meh. I'm not sure how we're supposed to evaluate Kuminga or Green this season, either. People are going to long for the days of depth in the 2020 draft after this is all said and done
    Somewhat disagree.

    Cade, Suggs, Mobley, Day'ron Sharpe, Jalen Johnson, etc, have all been doing their jobs. Many of the concerns they're showing are concerns people had pre-season as well.

    Then, as you say, two probably top ten guys in Kuminga and Green haven't even played yet, so how can we say the top of the draft doesn't look as strong when we haven't even seen 20% of a prospective top 10 on a court yet?

    Then there's also been plenty of lower tier guys who are coming through. David Duke* and Jared Butler are great examples of guys who are more likely to go later in the draft but who will be quality NBA depth. Plus, nobody's played more than about 6 games so far. Give it a chance

    I see what you mean when you say that, because some guys have had early season struggles (BJ Boston, for example) but in many cases those are guys we kind of expected to struggle; Boston due to Calipari's whole ''not knowing what to do with talent'' problem combined with the strength issues, for example.

    *Not that David Duke.
    Last edited by Pelicanidae; 12-10-2020 at 11:04 PM.
    Cade Cunningham/Usman Garuba/Scottie Barnes/Moses Moody/Corey Kispert endorser.

    Eye test people: analytics people watch more basketball than you do.

  3. #103
    Cade showed one of the key signs of an excellent talent last game: having a hard time scoring, but still having an impact.

    There are a lot of players in the world who are good players but who are reliant on solo offensive production to make their impact on the game felt. Tons of them. Many of them reach that low-end-all-star/borderline-all-star level, as well; they're good players. But a lot of what keeps them from being the top tier guys in the league is that lack of alternative impact.

    Cade shot 4/11 last game: that's not good. But he still played excellent defense the entire time, including as a communicator: he may already be one of the best ''point and yell'' guys in the college game, constantly directing people around to make rotations based on his intense recognition of the opposing offense. And then he hit that gamewinner; the confidence to take that shot from deep, pulling up, when you're 1/3 from 3 so far and have shot badly all night? That's big, and it's the second gamewinner he's hit already this season iirc.

  4. #104
    Cade Doncic

  5. #105
    Moses Moody has been insanely good so far as well. I liked him a lot at the pre-college level, but I had a rough idea of him being a 8-15 range kind of guy. So far this season, he's playing like a top 5 pick.

    Really good, impactful defense, and hyper efficiency on offense. Still not a primary and isn't really a playmaker, but you can't deny the numbers he's putting up or the intensity he's been playing with.

    6'6, currently averaging 16/6/2 on 48/41/86 splits. Shooting 4.5 threes a game.

    His current stats per 100: 30.3/10.7/3.8

    He's got a 2.8%STL rating (that coveted +2%STL still a good indicator) and a .468 FTr, all of which contributes towards his 63.3% TS thus far.

    We're only 6 games in so there's plenty of time for regression and such, but he's looking really really good.

  6. #106
    Bones Hyland looks to be taking that final step to putting it all together. Could be a good look for a late first round/early second pick perhaps, if the progress continues.

    He took 24 FTs in 31 games last season: he's taken 20 in 7 games so far this year. Still not a ton, but it's basically a doubled FT rate. Career 3ptR of about 62%, shooting 38% on 8.3 a game this year, shot 43% on 5 a game last year. Some of the shot making is truly ridiculous, see this clip:



    That's a wrong way between the legs into a stepback contested three and he sinks it. It's pretty impressive. He's a solid defender too, and is shooting 90% from the FT line this year so far. Not a great playmaker for others and a fairly unimpressive scorer from 2, but there's something there.

    Another guy who could be a good late prospect is someone like Isaiah Livers; 6'7 forward in his senior year. He's shot about 40% from 3 on over 300 attempts during his college career, 94% from FT line so far this year, 96% from the FT line last year, admittedly on fairly low volume. Okay ish team defender, kind of unimpressed by his projection on D at the NBA level for a few reasons but still. Will probably be a value 2nd round guy.

    Corey Kispert also, out of Gonzaga so you've probably already seen him.

  7. #107
    The Franchise billfromfinance's Avatar
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    i'm not one to spend time on prospects, but Moses Moody and Bones Hyland have my vote on "could be on a 70s roster" and for that they have my support.

  8. #108
    Quote Originally Posted by Pelicanidae View Post
    Cade showed one of the key signs of an excellent talent last game: having a hard time scoring, but still having an impact.

    There are a lot of players in the world who are good players but who are reliant on solo offensive production to make their impact on the game felt. Tons of them. Many of them reach that low-end-all-star/borderline-all-star level, as well; they're good players. But a lot of what keeps them from being the top tier guys in the league is that lack of alternative impact.

    Cade shot 4/11 last game: that's not good. But he still played excellent defense the entire time, including as a communicator: he may already be one of the best ''point and yell'' guys in the college game, constantly directing people around to make rotations based on his intense recognition of the opposing offense. And then he hit that gamewinner; the confidence to take that shot from deep, pulling up, when you're 1/3 from 3 so far and have shot badly all night? That's big, and it's the second gamewinner he's hit already this season iirc.
    I know we get in this argument after every Cade game, but at some point we have to let the guy have a bad game and not explain away every fault. He's averaging 11.5/3/6 against actual competition on the season at clips of 43/40/75. I think its relatively concerning that he didn't get to the line a single time against Wichita State. I still don't think he's great at getting past his defender, although his pull up game and dribble combos into the pull up have far exceeded expectations.

    He's quite clearly the number 1 prospect in this draft. I just want to see him play a little better against middle tier schools like Marquette and Wichita State before I can put him in the Luka/Zion stratosphere of prospect.

  9. #109
    Quote Originally Posted by pelafanatic View Post
    I know we get in this argument after every Cade game, but at some point we have to let the guy have a bad game and not explain away every fault. He's averaging 11.5/3/6 against actual competition on the season at clips of 43/40/75. I think its relatively concerning that he didn't get to the line a single time against Wichita State. I still don't think he's great at getting past his defender, although his pull up game and dribble combos into the pull up have far exceeded expectations.

    He's quite clearly the number 1 prospect in this draft. I just want to see him play a little better against middle tier schools like Marquette and Wichita State before I can put him in the Luka/Zion stratosphere of prospect.
    When you watch a draft prospect who you know is good, like Cade, I think its being overtly negative if you spend your time weedling away at minor issues. We already know Cade is really good, we don't need to figure that out or whatever, so when you have someone who is good, the question becomes how good are they?

    In that situation, asking the question ''what are they doing when they aren't scoring?'' is a valid thing to do. If Cade has a bad scoring game, which he did and I said straight up at the beginning, you have to ask yourself, okay so what else can he do? That's what I was talking about there. Watch that game back: he played really good defense, and he literally won the game for them.

    Those are positive things. The negative thing was his FG%, but as most draft people will tell you, raw FG% is often the least interesting thing about any given player's game.

  10. #110
    Quote Originally Posted by Pelicanidae View Post
    When you watch a draft prospect who you know is good, like Cade, I think its being overtly negative if you spend your time weedling away at minor issues. We already know Cade is really good, we don't need to figure that out or whatever, so when you have someone who is good, the question becomes how good are they?

    In that situation, asking the question ''what are they doing when they aren't scoring?'' is a valid thing to do. If Cade has a bad scoring game, which he did and I said straight up at the beginning, you have to ask yourself, okay so what else can he do? That's what I was talking about there. Watch that game back: he played really good defense, and he literally won the game for them.

    Those are positive things. The negative thing was his FG%, but as most draft people will tell you, raw FG% is often the least interesting thing about any given player's game.
    When a player is really good, but 19, shouldn't the question also be "Where can they improve?" It's frustrating to me that I follow like 15 draft nerds (I mean that term in the most loving way possible), and they refuse to acknowledge his weaknesses at this time. I guess it's because he's such a joy to watch, but I'm more interested in how he can get even better

  11. #111
    Quote Originally Posted by pelafanatic View Post
    When a player is really good, but 19, shouldn't the question also be "Where can they improve?" It's frustrating to me that I follow like 15 draft nerds (I mean that term in the most loving way possible), and they refuse to acknowledge his weaknesses at this time. I guess it's because he's such a joy to watch, but I'm more interested in how he can get even better
    You can do that all you want, if you like, but if (as in this circumstance) the depth of how he can improve is just basically that he could miss less, then it's a critique without content. Literally everyone could miss less. Nobody shoots 100%. Even Zion, who was super efficient at the NBA level last year, in fact historically efficient on his volume as a rookie, had a game where he went 5/19 for 26%. It happens.

  12. #112
    I seen trade Ingram for him I don’t understand some guys when it comes to our players lol

  13. #113
    Oklahoma State is so bad it's actually depressing.

  14. #114
    I think right now, and obviously it's still incredibly early, the guys I have as potential Pels picks are (of course depending on where we end up picking) Moses Moody or Bones Hyland. Tankathon currently has Moody 10th and Bones outside the top 30. Personally, I do not entirely agree with those ratings and think they're very likely to change, but if we end up scraping into the playoffs or just missing them and have a pick somewhere between 13 and 18, getting one of those guys seems plausible at this point.

    Moody: 6 games, 16/5.7/2 so far on 48/41/86 shooting with really solid defense. 63.3%TS, 2.8%STL. Not a high level playmaker whatsoever or anything, and and is very much a secondary type player but as a 3&D prospect he's looking fantastic and looked good pre-college too. Probably going to go lottery if his play continues the way it has been, but there's always an outside shot of someone falling a bit.

    Bones: Real name Nah'Shon Hyland, Bones is a bit older than sophomores generally are, because he missed a year to recover from a torn patella tendon that happened when he jumped out of a window to escape a house fire. A little on the short side at only 6'3, Bones is really a shooting guard but a very enticing one. He's currently shooting 40.6% from 3 on 8.6 per game, including some absurd pull-ups that involve all manner of dribble moves and step backs. There's footage of him going back years making absurd shots, and it's something he showed his freshman year too, where he shot 43.4% on 4.7 per game. The concern then was his FT shooting, which stuck around 67% on miniscule volume, but this year his FTr has increased from .104 to .205 (still low, but not quite as low) and his efficiency has shot up to 91.3% from the line. While I don't think it's entirely likely that he's truly a 90%+ FT guy from this point out, guessing there to be some improvement given his shooting prowess elsewhere seems safe; if he ended up being an 80 or 85% FT guy that wouldn't surprise me. He's been a pretty solid defender as well so far this year, which is promising.

    Obviously this is super early and there are literally dozens of games left where guys could drop off the map or other guys could shoot up, but those are a couple of names that I'm interested in right now as potential Pels guys.

  15. #115
    Fun players to watch who are good but who are not big names like Cade and Mobley, with a one sentence description of why they're good:

    - Day'Ron Sharpe: Utility big man, not a great scorer but gets tons of stocks and passes pretty well, good mobility.
    - Keon Johnson: Steals menace with high awareness on D, shooting horrifically right now but isn't quite that bad in the long run imo, even if he's not going to be hyper efficient.
    - Daishen Nix: Has yet to play, he's in the G League system - solid defensive prospect with a great frame who has been a great passer with a solid scoring projection.
    - James Bouknight: 20 year old sophomore who is probably more of an off-ball guy in the NBA than he has been in college, really instinctual and smart cutter, shoots well on high volume and plays pretty decent team D.
    - Corey Kispert: Senior who can shoot the lights out with strong defensive IQ, isn't much on-ball as a defender but knows what he's doing for the team, decent passer with good auxiliary handling.
    - Roko Prcacin: 6'9 forward who is super young (will be 18 and 6 months at draft time iirc) with really good passing feel and handle, really athletic, really good defender but struggles a lot with his shot and it's bad at the FT line too at around 60%.
    - Jared Butler: 21 year old Junior at 6'3, probably has the best handle in this draft (or last draft honestly) in terms of manipulation and function, strong shooting prospect (44% on 5 per game this year) who passes well and is okay at defense when you consider his size.
    - Deuce McBride: Absurdly good on ball defender with solid team defense as well; just puts people in prison all game long, and contributes on the other end with much improved 3pt shooting this year (42.3% up from 31% last year).

  16. #116
    Another guy who I'm going to start watching but haven't really so far, Hyunjung Lee from Davidson. 6'7 sophomore.

    Stats this year: 16.7/4.7/3.0 on 54.9/50/100 splits (yes, he is 16/16 from the line so far) and is taking 6.6 threes a game. TS% is 74.4%, and in his freshman season last year it was 62.7% based on 47/37.7/85.7 splits, so the improvement seems to be all around. Obviously I'm not expecting him to shoot 50% from 3 or 100% from the line all year long, but even if that number drops to 40% from 3 and 90% from the line that's still extremely promising.

    The concern for me, just looking at the stats and some clips, is the defense. The STL% is 0.3%, which is abominable - it was better his freshman season, 1.6%, but even that isn't great. He doesn't seem to have particularly great feel, or great feet, and he's not particularly strong physically either: his frame is fairly narrow and he doesn't really use his body much. Part of that is just role, he's asked to be a spacer not a ball handler or finisher, but it still concerns me a little. It's not the end of the world, Duncan Robinson isn't very strong either or very good defensively, but then Robinson is one of the best shooters in the entire NBA and possibly one of the top 10 shooters of all time at his height already so are we betting on Lee to be that good? Possibly not.

    This is entirely based on clips and stat searching, I haven't really watched Davidson this year much, but I'll definitely be investing some time into doing that as the season goes along. He could be an intriguing player if the efficiency holds up and he flashes decent auxiliaries.

  17. #117
    Corey Kispert is gonna be a neat roleplayer

  18. #118
    The league needs more Coreys

  19. #119
    Kispert through Gonzaga's first 6.5 games (as I write this, it's halftime in game 7):

    143 points, 31 rebounds, 14 assists. Assuming 7 games - so even if he did nothing in the second half of this game - that's averaging 20.4/4.4/2

    He's shooting 29/37 from 2 (78.3%) and 22/44 from 3 (50%), which works out to about 6.3 attempts from deep per game (obviously with another half to go, that average could easily increase).

    Doing it all with sharp auxiliary passing, really solid team defense, reading the floor well. His threes have come from deep NBA range, spotting up and off movement, and some pullups sprinkled in too.

    That kind of shooting at 6'7 with smart overall play just works, man. It just does. It's not entirely new either: he shot 43.8% from 3 last year on 178 attempts, and 37.4% the year before on 163 attempts then: the sample size is fairly significant.

    Shooting 90% from the line so far this year also, after shooting 81% last year and 87.5% the year prior.

  20. #120
    Dae are you still a Brandon Boston Jr. endorser? I though he was an Ingram clone coming in, but man does he look lost. No playmaking whatsoever so far, and the jumper has yet to arrive

  21. #121
    Quote Originally Posted by pelafanatic View Post
    Dae are you still a Brandon Boston Jr. endorser? I though he was an Ingram clone coming in, but man does he look lost. No playmaking whatsoever so far, and the jumper has yet to arrive
    Depends what you mean. I still think he has a potential pathway to NBA success, even if he ends up not being one-and-done (2 years might help him), so in that sense yeah I still endorse him. But yeah, he's not been nearly as good as his pre-NBA dominance would have suggested: I had him as being a top 5 prospect coming in and he's not been anywhere near that whatsoever.

    So I guess maybe, I endorse him still, but less so? Depends on how you judge that.

  22. #122
    Quote Originally Posted by Pelicanidae View Post
    So I guess maybe, I endorse him still, but less so? Depends on how you judge that.
    Yea I just saw your signature, and was wondering if it was updated. Scottie Barnes hasn't looked like a great prospect either

  23. #123
    Quote Originally Posted by pelafanatic View Post
    Yea I just saw your signature, and was wondering if it was updated. Scottie Barnes hasn't looked like a great prospect either
    Nah, Barnes has been pretty close to what I expected him to be. Really great passer for his size, incredible defender, kind of meh or awful at everything else. I just think he's really fun and also has a good path to being one of those ''low usage, high impact'' NBA guys that are so sought after. Of course, you do need some kind of baseline offense for that - you have to be able to make an open layup lol - but I think there's still chance for that: he's shooting 52% on 2s for example.

    The real concern with him, imo, is his FT%. It's currently at 42% which is frankly just not good enough whatsoever. He gets to the line at a really good rate (FTr of about 40% I think) but he just cannot convert them: with no real obvious shooting improvement and not being a superb finisher, that's just not acceptable.

  24. #124
    I really like what I've seen so far out of John Petty. I'd love to grab him in the second round of this years draft. Just an absolute flamethrower that knows how to move without the ball. Additionally, he would immediately have chemistry with Kira.

    He doesn't really have elite NBA athleticism, but neither does Duncan Robinson. Petty is currently shooting 48% from the field and 42% from 3 on nearly 7 attempts per game. He'll be a second round pick because he's 22, but I think he steps in immediately and contributes. I see his low end as Wayne Ellington and his high end as something like Joe Harris with more athleticism. With the Pels being desperate for shooting, and Petty absolutely checks that box

  25. #125
    I'm liking David Duke 6'5" SG outta Providence.

    18.7 ppg
    6.1 reb
    4.7 asst

    83% FT
    43% on 3's while taking over five per game


    He's super athletic and I like the fact that we wouldnt have to wait and hope he develops his shot. We need polished guards to coincide with zion and ingram's timelines
    Last edited by fullcourtpress; 01-28-2021 at 10:21 AM.

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