2021 NBA Draft Discussion

[fullcourtpress]

And if I had to make an argument for someone like Kispert, that would be it. In no world is he gonna demand a 100 million dollar 2nd contract. He will be 26 or 27 and nobody will see some unrealized upside in him. So, he could be the same level of player as say a Jalen Johnson in his 2nd contract but Johnson got 4/100 because he showed some flashes and was 23 when the 2nd contract was signed. While Kispert gets 3/35 and outperforms his 2nd deal like Doug McDermott did his.

Otto Porter gave more value in his first contract, but was a burden in his 2nd while McDermott outperformed his 2nd

I know Kispert fizzled out in the tourney, but I've coveted him from day one regardless of his 'value'.


IDK something about me really enjoys having an elite shooter on the floor like a peja stojackovic, kyle korver,klay thompson, drazen petrovic, joe harris, mike miller type

our team sorely lacks that and he undoubtedly has it.


i'd just die if we took a keon johnson. Our current timeline requires we get at least one sniper on the floor

[Lee2000]

I just saw an updated mock draft for Pelicans. The took the guard from Baylor, Davion Mitchell, and the kid from Kansas who transferred to Houston, Quentin Grimes. They took 3 big men who are around 6-10 or bigger. One college kid (Day?Ron Sharpe, the center from UNC), a Turkish kid, Ariel Hukporti, who played center but was nimble, and lastly, a kid from Germany, Alperen Sengun. Two guards, 3 center/forwards (2 international players). It is possible the two international kids would stay overseas.

[AusPel]

I just saw an updated mock draft for Pelicans. The took the guard from Baylor, Davion Mitchell, and the kid from Kansas who transferred to Houston, Quentin Grimes. They took 3 big men who are around 6-10 or bigger. One college kid (Day?Ron Sharpe, the center from UNC), a Turkish kid, Ariel Hukporti, who played center but was nimble, and lastly, a kid from Germany, Alperen Sengun. Two guards, 3 center/forwards (2 international players). It is possible the two international kids would stay overseas.

There's no way of getting Mitchell and Sengun. Both will go early

[Pelicanidae]

There's no way of getting Mitchell and Sengun. Both will go early

Sengun I could see an argument for. I feel like if someone takes Mitchell top 8 they're going to almost certainly look very silly in 18 months time

Edit: Just to clarify, that's not because I think Mitchell will suck, but rather because if he's going top 8 then at least a handful of people that I'm sure will be better long term picks will be coming after him and he will be viewed as a reach, though not a disastrous one. Cam Johnson type stuff.

[Pelicanidae]

I think my hot take at this point in the draft is that I don't have Kuminga top 10 anymore

[Eman5805]

I wish other teams had your opinion. If we don’t get the top 4 or even move down a spot or two, and Kuminga is still there? Unless he drinks kitten and abused spouse smoothies, I’d love him down there.

[Pelicanidae]

I wish other teams had your opinion. If we don’t get the top 4 or even move down a spot or two, and Kuminga is still there? Unless he drinks kitten and abused spouse smoothies, I’d love him down there.

I don't hate him and I still think his physical profile and therefore hard-limit ceiling is quite high, but I just think the processing problems stood out really strongly this year.

I was high on Kuminga before the year, I had him around #5, but he disappointed in a few ways. A lot of the holes he had that you look for guys to improve on just didn't really get addressed. Inconsistent shotmaking, the touch just was not there whatsoever, and then his shooting numbers going back to EYBL have never been great. His power and physical capacity, quick movement, decisive stuff, that was all there and there were some moments of the shot-making that were good, but it just never came together.

Passing processing was always a little slow, and his on-ball decision making issues didn't really iron out. Lots of barreling into guys, missing passes, not being aware of the shot-clock, stuff like that, which isn't that unique for younger guys but there was basically no progress from the pre-G League stuff which sucked.

Defense not really there progressing either. Some good moments, again, but the consistency wasn't there and again the processing is just slow. He uses his size well and the mobility is good but he got beat a lot at the PoA, couldn't deny smaller guys in the post with regularity, lots of ball watching, lots of missed rotations, lots of over-extending and getting himself off balance and out of position. Again, on paper this isn't that weird for a young prospect but the lack of growth over the last year is worrying.

I just wonder what he is at the NBA level. He's not a good enough shooter or decision maker to be like that elite off-ball wing guy, and he's not a good enough processor or passer or finisher to be an on-ball wizard. Whichever he ends up being offensively, he'll need to take some pretty big leaps in some areas to get there, and I just find it really hard to bet on that when the growth curve has been so stunted over the last year and there are other guys who I think are more likely to make those leaps in the draft.

Still like him, I'm not saying I'd take him 28th or something, and his physical profile and strength and stuff are still enticing, but the scepticism has crept up on me pretty hard over the last 2 months or so. Maybe I'm overthinking it, but that's where I am now.

[tdcreator]

After Green I want Kuminga. His size and athleticism is enough for me. He won’t start anyway. I believed he’d play behind Ingram and Zion for a couple years to develop.

[RUFshreve]

After Green I want Kuminga. His size and athleticism is enough for me. He won’t start anyway. I believed he’d play behind Ingram and Zion for a couple years to develop.

Kuminga is the one guy in this draft class we literally have no shot of taking. He's not going above the top 4, but he's definitely above the next tier of players. He is as sure to go at pick number 5, regardless of the team picking there, as Cade is to go number one. He is an intriguing prospect though.

[luckyman]

Until there is some solid indication they'll move up, I'll concentrate on players to go around spot 10 with some other players added for context.

A few offensive numbers (derived offense) ranked by PPP:

Overall isos (min 20 possessions - 397 players)

49th Cade Cunningham - 1.119 (53.8% adj fg) on 84 poss
71st Davion Mitchell - 1.065 (57.2% adj fg) on 93 poss
71st Chris Duarte - 1.065 (50.0% adj fg) on 46 poss
91st James Bouknight - 1.037 (40% adj fg) on 27 poss
147th Cameron Thomas - 0.942 (39% adj fg) on 86 poss
229th Moses Moody - 0.818 (34.2% adj fg) on 22 poss


Overall PnR as ballhandler (min 100 poss - 585 players)

11th Scottie Barnes - 1.105 (58.3% adj fg) on 133 poss
27th Chris Duarte - 1.061 (63.6% adj fg) on 132 poss
38th Davion Mitchell - 1.041 (62.2% adj fg) on 241 poss
207th Jalen Suggs - 0.917 (51.8% adj fg) on 217 poss
338th Cade Cunningham - 0.855 (48.5% adj fg) on 344 poss
NQ Moses Moody - 1.022 (53% adj fg) on 46 poss



Spot ups (min 100 poss - 297 players)

14th Corey Kispert - 1.277 (63.1% adj fg) on 137 poss
34th Davion Mitchell - 1.155 (63.1% adj fg) on 116 poss
97th Moses Moody - 1.060 (55.0% adj fg) on 151 poss
110th Cam Thomas - 1.042 (46.1% adj fg) on 143 poss
137th Jaden Springer - 1.000 (55.9% adj fg) on 102 poss
NQ Chris Duarte - 1.255 (66.7% adj fg) on 94 poss
NQ Cade Cunningham - 0.988 (53.6% adj fg) on 86 poss

FYI...the formula for adj fg is...[(Total Points - FTs Made)/ FG attempts]/2. So basically like eFG%.

Anyone who says Davion Mitchell was not as impressive offensively as he was defensively simply doesn't know what they're talking about. At or near the top 10% in every category here.

The question is can it translate to the league?? Yes! That first step and that hesi is real, with Kira type speed to run the floor.

Also, obvious why I like Chris Duarte as well. Both players numbers match what I've seen on game video. My choices at 10...

Mitchell >> Moody >> or trade down for Duarte.

If they move past 8th then that obviously changes things.

[Silverfoxx]

I think my hot take at this point in the draft is that I don't have Kuminga top 10 anymore

Aww man please share your updated top 14 big board! Looking forward to it.

[Silverfoxx]

Had a dream we drafted Mitchell and Packaged picks and also grabbed Chris Duarte. One can dream right?

[RUFshreve]

That is really damn impressive and further solidifies my desire for him or Moody at 10. Those two are perfect fits for our young core. We have plenty of other picks to trade for whatever vets we want to acquire.

[Eman5805]

Chris Duarte. Okay. I’m being sold.

[fullcourtpress]

Nah'Shon Bones Hyland

I would package our two early 2nd rounders to get this guy; looks like Dame did in college


https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=rAI1kAe71m0


Competition wasn’t elite but he checks a lot of boxes

His shooting translates like no other

[HornetGuru]

That is really damn impressive and further solidifies my desire for him or Moody at 10. Those two are perfect fits for our young core. We have plenty of other picks to trade for whatever vets we want to acquire.

I’d be extremely happy with either at 10, but preferably Moody, but I think Mitchell makes us better immediately

[Silverfoxx]

Nah'Shon Bones Hyland

I would package our two early 2nd rounders to get this guy; looks like Dame did in college


https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=rAI1kAe71m0


Competition wasn’t elite but he checks a lot of boxes

His shooting translates like no other

I like Bones Hyland, been following him since he was in high school. He is a bucket.

[Pelicanidae]

I like Bones Hyland, been following him since he was in high school. He is a bucket.

Have previously endorsed Bones as well, I think he'll be a value pickup for someone in the 20s. Has definite issues but his shooting and self creation for that shooting is pretty top tier, his issues are elsewhere. Ridiculously fluid getting into his motions, and he can bomb from long range.

I think my favourite clip of Bones ever comes from a pre-college game where he hits like a double stepback behind the back three from 28 feet, it's mental.

[As I See It]

Nah'Shon Bones Hyland

I would package our two early 2nd rounders to get this guy; looks like Dame did in college


https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=rAI1kAe71m0


Competition wasn?t elite but he checks a lot of boxes

His shooting translates like no other

Saw him play in person (once), The first thing I thought was, 'he's a clone of Kira Lewis, Jr' but, in fairness to Kira, he's not the playmaker Lewis is, nor is he particularly effective when running the team. The guy will not miss an open three, but becomes ineffective when being crowded (certainly not the JJ Redick type who looks for contact). He does not play downhill, choosing instead to hang out on the perimeter, and seems to shy away from contact (did not shoot a single free throw in the game I saw). Defensively, he was a mixed bag. He can be overpowered one minute and an accomplished pick pocket the next.

I've seen him going as high as late in the first, but I don't see it (of course there is always a premium on shooting). I might take a flyer on him late in the second but if a bigger/stronger Skylar Mays can't make it, Hyland will be a longshot, at best.

[fullcourtpress]

[QUOTE=Pelicanidae;1558203]Have previously endorsed Bones as well, I think he'll be a value pickup for someone in the 20s. Has definite issues but his shooting and self creation for that shooting is pretty top tier, his issues are elsewhere. Ridiculously fluid getting into his motions, and he can bomb from long range.

I think my favourite clip of Bones ever comes from a pre-college game where he hits like a double stepback behind the back three from 28 feet, it's mental.[/QUO



I?m today?s basketball where Jordan and Kobe would be deemed inefficient; it seems to me like every team is gonna need someone who can stroke it from near 30 ft, for even contested 3?a are good

[Pelicanidae]

I?m today?s basketball where Jordan and Kobe would be deemed inefficient; it seems to me like every team is gonna need someone who can stroke it from near 30 ft, for even contested 3?a are good

Kobe would, Jordan wouldn't.

League average TS% today is about 56%. Kobe had precisely 2 seasons where he shot better than 57%TS, while Jordan had 7 in fewer seasons played, including 4 straight seasons of 60%TS or better.

I know Kobe and Jordan get lumped together a lot, but Jordan was another level from Kobe as a scorer, I think that needs to be highlighted. Efficiency does matter: its a huge part of what makes Jordan top 3 all time while Kobe doesn't crack top 15.

[DaFranchise80]

Had a dream we drafted Mitchell and Packaged picks and also grabbed Chris Duarte. One can dream right?

I can live with this result if we don’t jump into the top 4. Speak it into existence my brother.

[Pelicanidae]

JT Thor officially declared for the draft. Top 25 guy.

[Taker597]

JT Thor officially declared for the draft. Top 25 guy.

He's one of my late favs

[Pelicanidae]

Anadolu Efes (Euroleague champs) swept Alperen Sengun's team in 3 games in Turkish playoffs but Sengun averaged 36-10-7 per 70 poss on 64.7 TS% for the series. He also won Turkish league regular season mvp. Made 3 threes vs Efes also. 79.4%, 243 FTAs for season

— mike gribanov (@mikegrib8) June 5, 2021

I'm not the biggest Sengun supporter on the planet (I've seen some people mocking him as high as top 8, which is a touch rich for my blood) largely because of defensive concerns, but there is legitimate promise in his offense.

The Turkish league, admittedly, isn't great but it's not the worst professional league and at the very least these numbers were posted against real adults who do this for a living.