I think the way the lottery works is you can only jump into the top 4, not top 5. I could be wrong thoughOriginally Posted by DaPelFromHell
 |
| . |
|
I think the way the lottery works is you can only jump into the top 4, not top 5. I could be wrong though
Serious question -- shouldnt every fan of this team know every single thing about the draft lottery at this point?
@mcnamara247
Yes, this is the case.
Basketball.
I think the best case Scenario is 8th lottery slot.
The tankathon tie for 4/5/6 is wild. Raptors seems a lock for 7th.
Yeah I agree, and that's a 26% chance for a top 4 pick, compared to something like a 13% chance for where we are now. So a pretty significant jump. 7th is possible but it requires a very specific set of outcomes in the last stretch of games, whereas 8th has a little more wiggle room.
The 26% is a bit deceptive. It's like 6.4% per pick 1-4, but I get what you mean.
But the great thing about the 8th pick is that 6th-8th range is just insane chaos odds.
http://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds
Yes, it's about 6% and some change per pick which, when all taken together, add up to a 26%ish chance at a top 4 pick. Not really sure what's deceptive about that, honestly. It's not like a said it's a 26% chance at the top pick or something, that would be wrong, but if you have a 6 point something % chance at one of four outcomes, then in any given random roll you have a 1/4 chance (ish) of getting one of those four outcomes. Maybe I'm misinterpreting.
You're right about chaos odds though. Right now the 8th pick belongs to Chicago (well, sort of, it's protected and they owe it to Orlando if it falls outside protection). If I roll 30 times, here are my outcomes:
- 1st x5
- 3rd x4
- 4th x5
- 8th x7
- 9th x8
- 10th
That's just one sample size of 30, which obviously has clear limitations, (I get a top 4 pick in almost 50% of these which is double the on-paper likelihood from that spot) but the potential range from 1st to 10th all appearing within a relatively small number of rolls, with near equal appearances of 1st, 4th, 7th, and 9th, just goes to show how much of a near random pick it can be.
By contrast, to compare it to a less volatile number, our current draft position as of today is 10th. If I do the exact same thing and roll 30 times, and see what happens to the 10th pick:
- 2nd x3
- 3rd x2
- 4th x2
- 10th x13
- 11th x10
In this, we get 10th or 11th in 23/30 rolls, and jump into the top 4 only 7 times in comparison to 14 times in the above sample (which again, actually tracks: moving up to 8th basically doubles the likelihood of a top 4 pick) and we just can't get 8th or 9th at all, which limits the range of upper end possible outcomes.
8th pick isn't the best, you'd prefer a legit top 4 pick (rolling the same 30 rolls for OKC, the team currently in 4th, delivers a top 4 pick in 18 of my 30 rolls, including the first overall pick 7 times, and never finished lower than the 7th overall pick), but it's so much better than 10th. Opens up a better chance at the top end picks, and puts a much more pleasant range of outcomes into the lower-end possibilities.
Yeah, it's why I been pretty adament about deciding to tank two weeks ago. We badly need to get out of the 10-11 odds. Especially, the 10th pick having a 20% chance of hitting the 11th pick and shooting another team to the top 4 like a slingshot. I believe that's how the Lakers got the 4th pick. 10th seed 20% odds at 11th is a slingshot.
The highest slingshot odds from pick is the 8th pick. The 7th odd holder at 8th with whooping 34.1 and 20% for the 6th odd holder
The 6th picks odd are crazy, but I wouldn't call it a slingshot. It's just all chaos with the most potential to win it all.
It's really wild to me that the 6th lottery odd holder only has a 8.1% chance at its own pick.
I'm actually pretty excited. Griffin got Lottery luck on his side. Get 4th overall. I hope we keep the pick.
Each pick (1-4) is a stand alone pick. To say Chicago (as of now) has a 23.6% chance of landing a Top Four pick is incorrect and quite frankly, laughable. They actually have a 23.6 chances in 400(rounded) of landing in the top four (or 6.57%) when the lottery commences. Depending on who gets the first pick, the odds change because the denominator changes. The best possible outcome for Chicago to land the fourth pick would be for Teams 1. 2, and 3 to capture the top three picks (regardless of the order). In that case, Chicago would have 23.6 chances in 244 (rounded) of landing the fourth pick (or 10.78%).
If you care to check my numbers, go to Tankathon and add up the percentages (which are actually chances and not percentages) in the column entitled "Top 4" (that's where you get the 400 (rounded) figure.
Just for S&G's, you can add up the column that reads "No 1 OVR". You will find that it adds up to 100.
http://www.tankathon.com/
Last edited by As I See It; 05-09-2021 at 03:20 AM.
Regardless of where you pick, for every team below your slotting that jumps into the top four, you drop one spot. If a team above you jumps into the top four, there is no effect on your slotting.
I hope we keep the pick if it's top 3. If it's below that, I'm okay with trading it if it's a good trade; obviously I don't want to get robbed, but if we're including it in a move to acquire a superstar or a top 25 player then I'm obviously much more okay with it.
I think the only move that would really annoy me is if we traded a good pick in an awful deal (but that's fair, I think a team making bad trades annoys everyone) or if we somehow landed the #1 pick and traded it for like, Myles Turner lmao. That would put me in a pretty thunderous mood.
Contributor
If you trust Mac, he’s said anything short of 2 and we’re almost certainly trading for Beal.
But I feel like life is too fluid. Something else can and will change between such an event and when that information was to be believed originally.
I do not.
If you know share your thoughts? But you don ‘t know because a lot rides on the Lakers and where they fall at end of season.
Beal is not going anywhere if Durant somehow finds his way to DC
If you trade the pick, you’d best make damn sure it’s a top player. We are way too early in this cycle to waste potential on a mediocre role player. I fully expect us to make the worst move possible.
Overall I've been fairly fine with Griffs moves up to this point. Some disagreements here or there, sure, but generally it's been okay and I've understood the game plan.
Right now I am getting a little bit of ''here's where it goes wrong'' dread, not going to lie. Could just be me being over-anxious, that's possible, but I can't deny the feeling is there.
Did not say that. Said that they will TRY to trade for guys. But i also said that i dont think a top 30 player will be moved this offseason. But they arent trying to add another 19 yr old. And for those who dont believe me, go ask your favorite local blogger or sports reporter. Its the worst kept secret ever
The only really safe spot is Griff is during the draft with Langdon compare to his FA stuff. I don't know who is in charge of his pro scouting.
No, it doesnt. You clearly dont understand the pick even though you are on here all the time and it has been explained 100000 times
The only way we get the pick this year is if the Lakers lose the play in twice, miss the playoffals and then take the less than 5 percent chance to jump into the top 4 in the lotto. If ALL that happens, then we get the pick. So, basically, we arent getting the pick
Contributor
Heh. If I was put on a witness stand, I'd have sworn you did.
Da well.
It already went there with the overpaying (asset and money wise) for Adams
Before that there was nothing gone wrong
Not hard to make that logical leap looking at 3 2nd year guys on the roster right now and 2 rookies.
Still though I hate this mentality. You need to go into every draft listening to your scouting department. If the value isnt there, only then do you consider trading out. Barring yourself from drafting someone you believe in because you have too many young players already is as stupid as it gets.
They can have their opinions but the objective data will tell you that you have a less than 20 percent chance of that guy becoming a long term valuable player for you - or ever truly helping you win for that matter. Go back to any draft, literally any one and count the number of guys who helped the team who drafted them win games over a replacement level amount. Do that and this whole illusion you have been sold on the draft fades away and you see it for what it really is
Again. As low odds as that may be, show me a small market contender in the modern era who hasn't built their team through the draft. And most of the teams that have done that right now, Utah, Phoenix, Denver, Milwaukee have gotten massive value out of late lottery picks. Guys like Chris Paul arent choosing to playing to here.
You just have to hope you're in that 20%. Trading out gives you a player just as likely to be inconsequential. Everyone points to the Jrue trade and how much better Jrue was than the 2 players that were drafted in those spots. Quick to point out how big of a win that was for the Pelicans. But Jrue helped them win all of 1 playoff series. It was still a better move at the time to just take the tiny odds you get lucky. And then use your cap space you use on Jrue to get more lotto tickets.
As grim as that may be, it's our reality.
There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)
Posting Permissions
Reply With Quote