2021 NBA Draft Discussion

[Impose]

The Spurs have a kinda easy road the rest of the season compared to us but they have 2 Suns games to make up and that could go either way depending if the Suns start resting guys for the playoffs.

At this stage it's clear we are trying to make the playins and honestly it's the right thing to do. We have all the draft picks in the world to move up a couple spots anyway.

[Pelicanidae]

The Spurs have a kinda easy road the rest of the season compared to us but they have 2 Suns games to make up and that could go either way depending if the Suns start resting guys for the playoffs.

At this stage it's clear we are trying to make the playins and honestly it's the right thing to do. We have all the draft picks in the world to move up a couple spots anyway.

Nobody in the top 3 is taking your combination of second rounders to move up. If you want any semi-realistic chance of a top tier draft pick, you have to hope to get lucky with the ping pong balls.

Also, ''the Spurs have a kinda easy road'' is just plain weird to say. We play a bunch of teams which aren't great (Charlotte, injured Lakers, Memphis, Golden State), whereas the Spurs face Phoenix twice, Utah, Brooklyn, Milwaukee, and the Knicks. They have a much harder schedule than we do.

[luckyman]

I agree with a lot of the spirit of this but I have a few concerns.

1) Self-creating midrange shots at 45% or more is extremely uncommon. You say a guard who can ''simply'' win their 1v1 battles and shoot that percentage is all we need, but that's actually a lot less common than someone who can shoot just league average from 3, and so is much harder to acquire.
2) Even if you do all the work of acquiring someone with that skillset, it's worth less to the offense than a 3pt shooter who is simply league average (45% from midrange is 0.9 points per shot, 36% from 3 is 1.09 points per shot), and most defenses are much happier giving up contested pull-up 18 footers than they are catch and shoot 3s.
3) Even if that was acceptable, why would you make it your aim? Surely even if you think someone who can break guys down and hit 18 footers is sufficient, someone who could do the same thing but hitting 23 footers would clearly be better, since the shots are worth more points and they create more space. So why would you aim for the former when there are potentially guys who could do the latter?

That's my confusion, really. I just don't get why you'd settle when you're high enough in the draft to be aiming for more upside than that.

And I'm also much lower on Davion Mitchell but that's a conversation we've had a little before so I just don't think we'll agree on that one

I never said it was easy to acquire. And secondly, the player i describe also hits 3s, just at a tad lower percent like 37-38%. So a multiple level scorer that doesnt need to be an all star. I also don't think shooting 45% mid range off the dribble is that much more difficult than shooting 40% on c&s threes. Especially against single coverage. That is the type player to target and work to acquire.

Im also talking from the standpoint that a player that can create their own shot is much more impactful than a specialist 3 point shooter. You are calculating the scoring based on a single possession. For the player this team is looking for, how many 3s do you think they make per game? At best you're talking 3 or 4, or 12 points at most. Versus someone that can knock down 5 - 8 self created mid range shots, or possibly take it in further and generate 3 point plays at the rim. That player has more impact on the opposition imo.

So with all that in mind, again, I want a tertiary player that can hit 3s at a decent rate plus create their own in mid range. A 3 level scorer but also not high usage.

[luckyman]

Why do half white people always have to be black? Ive always found it confusing.

Who said they are in the first place?

[Silverfoxx]

Man, you guys are really gonna get yourself worked up for a dream offseason and be let down. That core would need Hart and Hayes plus one more big wing who could shoot to be special. But it aint happening.

I will say again -- owners have received little to no revenue for what will be about 20 months by the time next season starts. Teams arent going to trade the guys who will sell tickets for guys and/or picks who wont. I really dont think Beal gets moved in the summer. Or either Portland guy when they lose in the 1st round. Or even a Sabonis. Now, all of those guys could be moved by February, after tickets have been sold. But it aint happening this summer.

But I cant stop you from dreaming. Zion and Lillard would be awesome

Wait....I'm the last person that's expecting anything amazing this off season brother. I was just shooting the ******** on a message board lol.

[Silverfoxx]

Agree. The Pels will love his physical profile. Will come down to the interviews and the background research on him

like Personality traits? If so then The Pelicans seem to be horrible at interviews and background research when looking at player profiles and character traits.

[MichaelMcNamara]

Race is a complicated subject, if you want a deeper discussion on the origin of racial dynamics in modern Western society feel free to hit me in the messages and we can talk about it. Middle of this thread isn't really the place for it.

Just like it's not really the place for MM to be asking his weird racially loaded questions in the first place, to be honest.

Why is it "weird"? We can discuss anything else about a human being and what things might lead to their success or failure from wingspan to 3/4 splits to a small sample size of shooting, to the school they went to, to the sports their parents played -- but god forbid we discuss their race and how other people in that race has performed in the sport. Oh, no, not race -- somebody might fake get offended!!

[Pelifan]

gonna have to agree. I much prefer people to be upfront about it than saying so and so white shooter reminds them of Kyle Korver. As long as you stay respectful its ok to bring it up. Like Sengun is going to be drafted 10 spots higher than he would have a few years ago because of Jokic, even though their games aren't similar

On Franz I think you're hoping you're getting Tayshaun prince if you draft him. Not sure I see it. His left hand is terrible and his shooting leaves a lot to be desired. I think I'd rather a polished player like Kispert or Butler or just draft straight upside in Bouknight or Keon Johnson

[HornetGuru]

Oh dear

Hahahaha

[MichaelMcNamara]

gonna have to agree. I much prefer people to be upfront about it than saying so and so white shooter reminds them of Kyle Korver. As long as you stay respectful its ok to bring it up. Like Sengun is going to be drafted 10 spots higher than he would have a few years ago because of Jokic, even though their games aren't similar

On Franz I think you're hoping you're getting Tayshaun prince if you draft him. Not sure I see it. His left hand is terrible and his shooting leaves a lot to be desired. I think I'd rather a polished player like Kispert or Butler or just draft straight upside in Bouknight or Keon Johnson

I think it is a small part of the evaluation and something to consider - similar to MANY other things that should not in and of themselves define the entirity of who a player is. But to pretend that we should all ignore it when we all notice trends and use coded language instead, like you said, is more disrespectful than just coming out and acknowledging it.

[As I See It]

I think it is a small part of the evaluation and something to consider - similar to MANY other things that should not in and of themselves define the entirity of who a player is. But to pretend that we should all ignore it when we all notice trends and use coded language instead, like you said, is more disrespectful than just coming out and acknowledging it.

Here Here!!

[Pelicanidae]

I never said it was easy to acquire. And secondly, the player i describe also hits 3s, just at a tad lower percent like 37-38%. So a multiple level scorer that doesnt need to be an all star. I also don't think shooting 45% mid range off the dribble is that much more difficult than shooting 40% on c&s threes. Especially against single coverage. That is the type player to target and work to acquire.

Im also talking from the standpoint that a player that can create their own shot is much more impactful than a specialist 3 point shooter. You are calculating the scoring based on a single possession. For the player this team is looking for, how many 3s do you think they make per game? At best you're talking 3 or 4, or 12 points at most. Versus someone that can knock down 5 - 8 self created mid range shots, or possibly take it in further and generate 3 point plays at the rim. That player has more impact on the opposition imo.

So with all that in mind, again, I want a tertiary player that can hit 3s at a decent rate plus create their own in mid range. A 3 level scorer but also not high usage.

I really think you're understating the quality of guys who can shoot 38% from 3 *and* who shoot 45%+ on "5 to 8" self created midrangers a game.

For reference, those numbers are almost identical to what Ingram was hitting last year. Ingram is a top 40 offensive player in the NBA and he was an all-star. Drafting a guy who can do that is top three worthy in most cases unless they are just disastrous everywhere else.

And again, if a player *can* self create 18 footers why not just have a guy who can self create 23 footers, while we're creating our wishlist, and remove the midrange focus altogether? If we're playing fantasy, why pray for Ingram when you can pray for Steph?

[Pelicanidae]

Kevin O Conner has posted a stunningly bad mock draft/big board type thing on The Ringer. It makes a lot of player comparisons, and since I've regularly complained that I dislike player comparisons I thought it might be kind of interesting to take a look at his bad mock draft, point out why I think it's bad, and why the player comparisons fail.

Just before I do that, I do want to point out that he does write ''shades of'' as his player comparison thing, rather than ''they are most like''. This is better than just direct comparison, because ''shades of'' implies that there's some elements of similarity without saying they're the same quality, but I still think this fails because if a 19 year old has ''shades of'' a player who is an entirely different playstyle, or something incredibly valuable, surely that should imply something about their ceiling or floor that impacts evaluation. I'll mention where this is and isn't a thing as it comes up.

So the top 5 is a pretty common set of takes, Cade/Mobley/Suggs top 3 is fine, Green and Kuminga top 5 is fine, and I think that calling Cade ''super-sized Shai Gilgeous Alexander'' is, while not really that accurate, does give a decent impression of the species of player that Cade is, so it's not that bad. Comparing Mobley to Bosh and Christian Wood, again, not the worst comparisons in the world though I do think he's closer to a modern Bosh than a Wood.

The first one that really sets the alarm bells ringing for me is this one:

Number 8: Franz Wagner

Now, I'm not really saying I have a problem with taking Wagner 8th, though I will say I'm a bit surprised by taking him above Moody (who we will get to in a moment). This one comes up more as an example of how weird and whacky some of these player comparisons are. KOC compares Wagner to both Danilo Gallinari (tall Euro shooter, skilled offensive player, defensive liability, a wing) and Xavier Tillman (undersized super-strong 5, excellent defender with few offensive self-creation skills). It is functionally impossible to be much like both of these players at the same time. Such an unhelpful player comp.

Number 10: Kai Jones

Again, a demonstration of how unhelpful these player comps are. KOC says he's like Christian Wood and Javale McGee. These are both two very very different types of big man whose game does not resemble each other at all.

Further, we are still at a weird position in the draft - Jones has been listed far above some other guys who we will get to later who have a very strong argument for deserving to be higher.

Number 16: Moses Moody

What.

Moody has a very very convincing argument for being a top 5 pick, seeing him this low down - after guys like Kai Jones and Corey Kispert - is extremely strange. Further, KOC's own player comparisons back that up: KOC says he's most like Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby. While I don't actually think these are very helpful comparisons in a lot of ways, I get where KOC is coming from but if you have a player who you think has anything like OG Anunoby or Mikal Bridges upside why on God's Green Earth would you have them outside of the entire lottery? It's such a weird valuation!

Aside from this, some of his comments about Moody are flat out wrong or just extremely weird. He notes that Moody ''lacks a floater'' which is largely true but also true of most other players in the NBA: floater games are not a core skill for the vast majority of most players. Secondly, he lists him as having ''excellent physical dimensions'', a ''good shooter'' who is ''capable of pulling up'', who ''reads the floor well'' to make passes off-ball with a ''nose'' for rebounding; an ''intelligent off-ball defender who always seems to be in the right position'' and a ''versatile on-ball defender who invites contact from larger players and who has the agility to contain smaller, perimeter players''. But then this all puts him 16th, behind a guy like Kai Jones who KOC describes as an ''average shooter'' with ''average hands'' that ''lacks any semblance of a post game'' with his ''inconsistent shooting mechanics'' and ''sluggish'' decision making. I guess not having a developed floater game is worse than all of those things, to KOC?

Number 22: Jalen Springer

Another ''what''. Springer has a legitimate argument as a top 10 pick in this draft; to have him 22nd, after guys like James Bouknight (who I like!) is extremely weird. KOC describes him as being like ''Kyle Lowry and Malcolm Brogdon'' which isn't really reflective of Springers hardcore physical stop-start game which relies far more on pace control than Lowry's pullup heavy game, and nor does it really resemble Brogdon who is a much more 'distant' player in general.

Number 25: Ayo Dosunmu

Another example of Player Comparisons Gone Awry. Apparently Ayo is ''jumbo Jrue Holiday''. What? Not only is this not true (Dosunmu lacks pretty much all of Jrue's finishing craft, doesn't have Jrue's ridiculous defensive anticipation or lower body strength, and is far more of a score-first guy than Jrue is) but if it was true then it would justify a far higher pick than 25. Jumbo Jrue Holiday is a top 15 player in the NBA at his peak; it's damn near Kawhi Leonard, and if you think a guy has anything like the potential to get close to Jrue's impact but is 3 inches taller, that guy should be a top 10 pick.

Yeah, wonky nonsense from The Ringer.

[HornetGuru]

I really think you're understating the quality of guys who can shoot 38% from 3 *and* who shoot 45%+ on "5 to 8" self created midrangers a game.

For reference, those numbers are almost identical to what Ingram was hitting last year. Ingram is a top 40 offensive player in the NBA and he was an all-star. Drafting a guy who can do that is top three worthy in most cases unless they are just disastrous everywhere else.

And again, if a player *can* self create 18 footers why not just have a guy who can self create 23 footers, while we're creating our wishlist, and remove the midrange focus altogether? If we're playing fantasy, why pray for Ingram when you can pray for Steph?

Who are we talking about so I don’t have to dig through the thread please

[Pelicanidae]

Who are we talking about so I don’t have to dig through the thread please

Not a real player, Lucky was just saying that he would want to trade down in the draft so as to acquire capital with which to move Bledsoe, talked about liking Isaiah Todd, and then mentioned that we don't need a guard who can shoot 40% from 3, we need a guy who can ''simply'' win 1v1 battles, shoot 45-50% from the midrange off the dribble, and then later added that they should still be able to hit like 37% from 3.

Which is not actually very simple and is representative of a pretty rare and offensively elite prospect.

If you run the numbers and look for players who actually take 5-8 long midrange shots a game, and then just search for the guys who shoot at least 45% on them and match it with 37% or more from 3, you basically get a list of the most elite shot creators in the NBA. CP3, Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, Kyrie Irving, Kevin Durant, Brandon Ingram, Devin Booker, Khris Middleton, Nikola Vucevic, Zach Lavine, etc.

And in fairness yeah, if you see a guy you think can be Chris Paul you do draft them as a priority but that's not usually something you see as a realistic outcome for anyone going at the 10th pick or later.

[Taker597]

The only mock draft that I really enjoy is probably NBA draft room.

Other than that, I just stick to scouting reports and watching a little tape/catching games.

[luckyman]

I really think you're understating the quality of guys who can shoot 38% from 3 *and* who shoot 45%+ on "5 to 8" self created midrangers a game.

For reference, those numbers are almost identical to what Ingram was hitting last year. Ingram is a top 40 offensive player in the NBA and he was an all-star. Drafting a guy who can do that is top three worthy in most cases unless they are just disastrous everywhere else.

And again, if a player *can* self create 18 footers why not just have a guy who can self create 23 footers, while we're creating our wishlist, and remove the midrange focus altogether? If we're playing fantasy, why pray for Ingram when you can pray for Steph?

I never said "long" midrange and I also said can drive to the rim. Overall shot creators.

Those extreme examples of yours are just bordering unecessary hyperbole. I don't know why this is confusing since there are more than a few of the players I'm talking about in this league. Not talking about high usage players like BI. There are other players that fit that role that are not all stars. So no need to pray for Steph either.

Players like Dejounte Murray (last year 44% iso), Tim Hardaway Jr (32% iso), Terance Mann (44% iso), Jordan Clarkson (last year 46% iso), Norman Powell (50% iso), and Will Barton (35% iso) all fit the profile of what I'm talking about. 2 -3 level scorers who are not all stars and dont require high usage. And that's just the western conference.

And Tim Hardaway Jr and Will Barton dont cross the thresholds exactly, but you're not going to cringe with either in iso.

Moody, Keon Johnson, Devonte Mitchell, and Isaiah Todd all fit that profile in this draft with higher upside.

[Pelicanidae]

I never said "long" midrange and I also said can drive to the rim. Overall shot creators.

Those extreme examples of yours are just bordering unecessary hyperbole. I don't know why this is confusing since there are more than a few of the players I'm talking about in this league. Not talking about high usage players like BI. There are other players that fit that role that are not all stars. So no need to pray for Steph either.

Players like Dejounte Murray (last year 44% iso), Tim Hardaway Jr (32% iso), Terance Mann (44% iso), Jordan Clarkson (last year 46% iso), Norman Powell (50% iso), and Will Barton (35% iso) all fit the profile of what I'm talking about. 2 -3 level scorers who are not all stars and dont require high usage. And that's just the western conference.

And Tim Hardaway Jr and Will Barton dont cross the thresholds exactly, but you're not going to cringe with either in iso.

Moody, Keon Johnson, Devonte Mitchell, and Isaiah Todd all fit that profile in this draft with higher upside.

I mean, the range in quality between the players you've listed is pretty huge so I get that you don't literally mean any of those guys (please no to Jordan Clarkson, whereas Norman Powell is quite good, for example) but the fact that there's such a huge range of potential outcomes in what you have in mind just makes me solidify my premise that what we need flat out is just talent. Whoever is good. If the best player left, with the highest upside, at our draft position is a 3+D wing then take that guy. If it's a 3 level scorer off the dribble then cool (though again, I think legit 3 level scorers who aren't cripplingly bad elsewhere don't usually stick around long enough in the draft to be available in the double digits).

The reason I used those extreme numbers (45%-50% midrange, on 5 to 8 attempts per game, plus 37% from 3) is because those are the numbers you said you had in mind. If those were actually a little extreme and you actually mean more like 40% from midrange and maybe 35-37% from 3, then yeah the door opens to a lot more names but the value of those players subsequently drops hard as well.

I like Moody and I like Keon and while I'm not nearly as high on him as you (I wouldn't take him in the lottery) I like Todd as well. I think the big disagreement we have in terms of prospects listed is that I really just don't buy Davion as a lottery talent. I think the floor to be an above-replacement level player in the NBA as a guy that's 6'2 is so high that unless you show real outlier skills that I can buy into, I can't take you in the lottery, and I don't buy Mitchell's shooting or his D being nearly so impressive at the next level.

[Pelifan]

FWIW I'm not a big Moody fan either.

Being young and productive is great but I dont see a lot of room for offensive growth. His shot looks good but not movement or off the bounce shooter good with that leg kick, limited around the rim

and his length on defense is great if he's a 2 guard but is average for NBA wings. I'm not sure if its just Arkansas scheme but it seemed like he let a lot of guys get to the rim and just used his superior length to bother them once they got there. That kinda defense won't work in the NBA.

I will agree though 16 seems a little low even for my tastes. Someone before the pelicans pick will take a chance on a long young player who's already that far along as a shooter in the hopes he'll become a great one. So I won't have to worry about whether my evaluation of him is wrong or not.

[Pelicanidae]

FWIW I'm not a big Moody fan either.

Being young and productive is great but I dont see a lot of room for offensive growth. His shot looks good but not movement or off the bounce shooter good with that leg kick, limited around the rim

and his length on defense is great if he's a 2 guard but is average for NBA wings. I'm not sure if its just Arkansas scheme but it seemed like he let a lot of guys get to the rim and just used his superior length to bother them once they got there. That kinda defense won't work in the NBA.

I will agree though 16 seems a little low even for my tastes. Someone before the pelicans pick will take a chance on a long young player who's already that far along as a shooter in the hopes he'll become a great one. So I won't have to worry about whether my evaluation of him is wrong or not.

Completely disagree. He's shown tons of pullup versatility in the midrange which is often the first step before it extends to the 3pt line (That's the path Tatum took, for example, it's quite common) and while you mention that you don't see a lot of room for offensive growth that seems fairly harsh in my view; even just in the course of his college season his passing took a pretty big level up. He was purely a functional passer at the beginning of the year and by the end he was creating plays by reading defensive reactions to his shooting, and his timing and delivery on a ton of these - including off the bounce - was pretty impressive at times. I don't think he's a primary creator or anything but I definitely think it would be unreasonable to rule out tertiary, Khris Middleton-style creation/connectivity, which can be hugely valuable.

I think you're also very harsh on his defense; firstly, he's 6'6 with a clearly positive wingspan (we don't know exactly how long he is but numerous reports attest to about 7'0, which is damn lengthy) and both good hands and anticipation. You do note that it might be Arkansas' scheme that creates a lot of being ''beaten'' by guys, and I do think it's important to note how college schemes limit players at times (FSU famously doesn't really allow ballhandlers to flourish, John Calipari hates shooters, etc) but I actually think more NBA defenders get beaten and recover well than you might think. Kawhi Leonard, for example, is obviously well renowned for his smothering defense but in reality he very often does the ''let them by, then bother from the side'' technique that Moody used a lot at Arkansas. It's possible when you're functionally very strong, have good timing, and a huge wingspan like both Kawhi and Moody do. Klay Thompson also uses a variant of this technique a lot.

I do agree that he'll probably be gone before our pick but with both Zion and Ingram potentially out for the last 6 games, we could easily finish the season 30-42 and at that point a top 5 pick is far more realistic.

[luckyman]

FWIW I'm not a big Moody fan either.

Being young and productive is great but I dont see a lot of room for offensive growth. His shot looks good but not movement or off the bounce shooter good with that leg kick, limited around the rim

and his length on defense is great if he's a 2 guard but is average for NBA wings. I'm not sure if its just Arkansas scheme but it seemed like he let a lot of guys get to the rim and just used his superior length to bother them once they got there. That kinda defense won't work in the NBA.

I will agree though 16 seems a little low even for my tastes. Someone before the pelicans pick will take a chance on a long young player who's already that far along as a shooter in the hopes he'll become a great one. So I won't have to worry about whether my evaluation of him is wrong or not.

I mean if Moody or Keon Johnson are there, I take Keon.

If it's between Moody and Kispert, I take Moody.

[Pelicanidae]

I mean if Moody or Keon Johnson are there, I take Keon.

How long do you think it will take Keon to reach positive NBA contribution?

Note: I like him too, I think he's cool and fun, I'm not trying to argue against him. Just curious as to your thoughts on this issue.

[luckyman]

How long do you think it will take Keon to reach positive NBA contribution?

Note: I like him too, I think he's cool and fun, I'm not trying to argue against him. Just curious as to your thoughts on this issue.

That is an unknown because I dont know him or his work ethic. I've never listened to him interview like I have Moody, Kispert, Mitchell, or Todd.

So if I had to give a number, right now it'd be the usual 3 years with positive strides in year 2. Could be less, could be more.

[fullcourtpress]

like Personality traits? If so then The Pelicans seem to be horrible at interviews and background research when looking at player profiles and character traits.

how so?

[DaPelFromHell]

I just hope we end up with a worse record than Chicago, Toronto, & Sacramento to give us the 7th worst record in the league. Toronto is getting back Lowry, so hopefully they go on a winning streak lol. Then get lucky in the lottery and end up with a top 5 pick. If we could come away with either Cade Cunningham, Jalen Green, Jonathan Kuminga, Jalen Suggs, or Evan Mobley I would be ecstatic. We were tied with the 7th worst record in the league when we hit the lotto to get Zion, so Cade wouldn?t be totally out of the discussion. But I?m sure the lottery rules/odds have changed since then.

My next 3 guys would be Scottie Barnes, Jalen Johnson, & Keon Johnson. So I hope we end up with one of those 8 players for sure from this draft.