2021 NBA Draft Discussion

[MichaelMcNamara]

This team is almost certainly going to finish 10th or 11th in ping pong balls. Meaning there is an extremely high likelihood they will be drafting 10, 11, or 12. I cant see them staying there and just taking another slightly above average, long term prospect at the end of the lottery. Nor can I see them using their draft capital to go move up and take another 19 yr old who is 2-4 years away from helping win games, when the pressure will be on them to win next year. The only way I see Griff keeping the pick is if there really arent any quality players available via trade. But I think he would give it up plus Bledsoe for Larry Nance in a microsecond to give you an idea of the level of player he would prefer to the pick. He will start with Beal and Sabonis and others, but would settle for a Jerami Grant, Nance, etc before he will take another young kid. Why I keep saying people should start studying the late 1st/early 2nd more than the top 15

[RUFshreve]

This team is almost certainly going to finish 10th or 11th in ping pong balls. Meaning there is an extremely high likelihood they will be drafting 10, 11, or 12. I cant see them staying there and just taking another slightly above average, long term prospect at the end of the lottery. Nor can I see them using their draft capital to go move up and take another 19 yr old who is 2-4 years away from helping win games, when the pressure will be on them to win next year. The only way I see Griff keeping the pick is if there really arent any quality players available via trade. But I think he would give it up plus Bledsoe for Larry Nance in a microsecond to give you an idea of the level of player he would prefer to the pick. He will start with Beal and Sabonis and others, but would settle for a Jerami Grant, Nance, etc before he will take another young kid. Why I keep saying people should start studying the late 1st/early 2nd more than the top 15

Grouping Jerami Grant with Larry Nance is strange. I'd happily trade our first and Bledsoe for Grant, I'd be pissed if we did it for Nance. Those players are not on the same level.

[Eman5805]

I’ve had my eyes on Cam Thomas for a while because he should be a later post lottery pick.

[Pelicanidae]

What do you all think about these prospects?

Amar Sylla
Greg Brown
Josh Christopher
Ibou Dianko Badji
Isaiah Todd
Davion Mitchell
Isaiah Livers
Landers Nolley II
Roko Prkacin

Amar Sylla: Decent prospect in some ways, but I just think given his restrictions in terms of finesse, how raw he still is in some areas, combined with being a bit undersized, I would probably put him mid to late 2nd round.

Greg Brown: Fantastic vertical athlete, and has shown some intriguing flashes particularly on defense but he's a wing with an awkward janky jumper who is turnover prone and has relatively poor passing craft. Early second round.

Josh Christopher: I think he'll be a better shooter than he showed at college, mainly going off FT%, but he has really bad passing feel and generally struggles with the little thinks like off-ball movement and help D. Not that high on him.

Ibou Badji: He's in next year's draft, I think? Too early to say definitively but I think of him as a first round prospect right now.

Isaiah Todd: Played well in the G League, put up good numbers on positive efficiency and obviously has a bit more experience against NBA-ish guys, but I'm relatively unimpressed with his defensive prowess for a guy of his size and quickness, seems to be lacking a bit in anticipation and reads.

Davion Mitchell: Really tenacious point of attack defender but extremely whatever off-ball, and he's super small. Wonky decision making and lack of vision lead me far off him as a primary. A bit sceptical about the shooting given his poor shooting prior to this year and the bad FT%. 6'2 off-guards need extreme outlier skills to make me rate them highly as NBA prospects, and he doesn't really have them which is why I have him well outside the lottery. Old too. Still a first rounder though.

Isaiah Livers: I trust him as a shooter. Lots and lots of faith in that. And being 6'7 and able to really shoot it has value. Very little faith in him elsewhere: he's not a playmaker in any sense, isn't really the kind of guy who creates at a high level for himself or anyone else, and while he's a serviceable team defender he's not super great or anything. Combine that with his age (4 year college guy) he's probably an early 2nd round guy to me, though I wouldn't hate it for a good team to pick him up late first.

Landers Nolley: Old (will be 22 in a few days) and has had a rough ol' time of it at college. 48%TS last year, 54% this year, despite being huge for a guard (6'7). There's decent defensive potential there, I've seen him make some great defensive plays here and there, but it's not a super consistent thing and while there's been encouraging signs of his shooting (39% this year and 80% from the line) he's been pretty useless both years inside the arc. Honestly, shooting 44% from 2 as a 6'7 guy with length is pretty terrible, and that's an improvement on his first year. I think he'll be one of those guys that someone will pick up second round and then have a few big games with shooting and people will do the ''oh my god how did he not get picked in the lottery'' thing but will otherwise just be alright. Early or mid 2nd round guy.

Roko Prkacin: Super underrated, top 20 prospect in the class, I've been decent arguments that he should be a lottery pick. He's a big, 6'9 SF/PF, he's super young (doesn't turn 19 until November) and he's shown so much. Really athletic, really good passing feel (though all the wrinkles aren't ironed out yet, which is to be expected at his age) with really solid defense both on and off the ball. The jumper is shaky but improving and he's shown flashes of it being there (shot 35% this year). The concern is his turnovers, which isn't that surprising for a young ambitious passer, and the FT% where he's always been a mid 60s guy.

[Pelicanidae]

I’ve had my eyes on Cam Thomas for a while because he should be a later post lottery pick.

2nd rounder imo

[Pelicanidae]

Grouping Jerami Grant with Larry Nance is strange. I'd happily trade our first and Bledsoe for Grant, I'd be pissed if we did it for Nance. Those players are not on the same level.

I think people are letting early season Grant confuse them. He's never been that high level before this year, and after his first 15 games or so, he's been very very mediocre this year too.

[MichaelMcNamara]

Grouping Jerami Grant with Larry Nance is strange. I'd happily trade our first and Bledsoe for Grant, I'd be pissed if we did it for Nance. Those players are not on the same level.

Neither are Sabonis and Jerami Grant. The point is that Griff will slowly work his way down the ladder as he keeps getting no's. He has already offered picks for Nance and was told no. I have no doubt he will offer again when he cant land bigger fish

[MichaelMcNamara]

The real darkhorse is Paul George. Small chance, of course, but if Clippers lose early, then Griff can move Bledsoe and pick(s) for a player they like plus a sign and trade of Lonzo to make salaries match. Nobody will like it initially, but then they will talk themselves into it. The way of the Pelican fan.

[Taker597]

The real darkhorse is Paul George. Small chance, of course, but if Clippers lose early, then Griff can move Bledsoe and pick(s) for a player they like plus a sign and trade of Lonzo to make salaries match. Nobody will like it initially, but then they will talk themselves into it. The way of the Pelican fan.

Pandemic P is still an upgrade for us. Most people would say championship or bust, but it seems Whiffin is just trying to knock on the door as a yearly playoff contender to not be labeled a complete disaster as PBO.. Which is fine...

[Silverfoxx]

The real darkhorse is Paul George. Small chance, of course, but if Clippers lose early, then Griff can move Bledsoe and pick(s) for a player they like plus a sign and trade of Lonzo to make salaries match. Nobody will like it initially, but then they will talk themselves into it. The way of the Pelican fan.

Or we have Bledsoe 2.0 with a disgruntled star likely souring the locker room with unprofessionalism.

Which is why I would make a move for Lowry in the off season. It's possible he pulls the same thing, but if I'm comparing the two, I think he is less likely to be unprofessional and will be a better leader that this team needs.

[As I See It]

Or we have Bledsoe 2.0 with a disgruntled star likely souring the locker room with unprofessionalism.

Which is why I would make a move for Lowry in the off season. It's possible he pulls the same thing, but if I'm comparing the two, I think he is less likely to be unprofessional and will be a better leader that this team needs.

Lowry is UFA. So it is less likely he would go somewhere he wouldn't want to be. Despite his age, I would love have him here for a couple of years to help set the tone. Further, he could be a perfect complement to Lonzo should we manage somehow to retain him and land Lowry.

[Taker597]

Or we have Bledsoe 2.0 with a disgruntled star likely souring the locker room with unprofessionalism.

Which is why I would make a move for Lowry in the off season. It's possible he pulls the same thing, but if I'm comparing the two, I think he is less likely to be unprofessional and will be a better leader that this team needs.

I would like Lowry to be honest. Even if he's a poor poor Chris Paul and a year younger.

[Taker597]

Man... the UFA guard class is just ugly old.

Derozan
Lowry
Conley
Paul *Player Option that is hard for him to decline
Dragic
Lou Williams
Derrick Rose

Watch us get someone like DinWiddle... Sadly, Still an Improvement if we dump both Lonzo and Bled.


I hope we do bring in Norman Powell, but that's only possible with a gross overpay.


If I have to make a move.

Sign Powell
Resign Ball

or

Sign and trade Ball
Sign Powell
Pray that NAW and Kira make a leap.


There is not a lot we can do in FA to fix our guard issue. Unless you want to bring in Lowry and I'm 1000% against gambling on short players over the age of 30.Lowry and Powell would be a huge improvement on defense, but there is no sustainability of that in a vacuum. Steven Adams would be an awful fit in that line up. You would have to move Steven Adams, Ball, and Bledose... Probably find a way to get Myles Turner to make that line up work on most nights.

[Pelifan]

This team is almost certainly going to finish 10th or 11th in ping pong balls. Meaning there is an extremely high likelihood they will be drafting 10, 11, or 12. I cant see them staying there and just taking another slightly above average, long term prospect at the end of the lottery. Nor can I see them using their draft capital to go move up and take another 19 yr old who is 2-4 years away from helping win games, when the pressure will be on them to win next year. The only way I see Griff keeping the pick is if there really arent any quality players available via trade. But I think he would give it up plus Bledsoe for Larry Nance in a microsecond to give you an idea of the level of player he would prefer to the pick. He will start with Beal and Sabonis and others, but would settle for a Jerami Grant, Nance, etc before he will take another young kid. Why I keep saying people should start studying the late 1st/early 2nd more than the top 15

hmm trading late lotto picks for young vets. What a novel approach. what could possibly go wrong?

Nobody knows what the future holds for these kids. Great players get taken in those spots all the time. And however low the odds are, we still need to hit on them, at least try and draft real needle movers. Larry Nance is not going to make the difference between Zion staying or leaving, between this being a championship team and not. Denver didnt start pushing the chips in until they already had a young playoff team they drafted. Our position should be the same.

if there are too many young guys you get rid of the ones you dont believe should be part of your core, like Denver did Beasley and Nurkic. It's as simple as that.

[Pelicanidae]

hmm trading late lotto picks for young vets. What a novel approach. what could possibly go wrong?

Nobody knows what the future holds for these kids. Great players get taken in those spots all the time. And however low the odds are, we still need to hit on them, at least try and draft real needle movers. Larry Nance is not going to make the difference between Zion staying or leaving, between this being a championship team and not. Denver didnt start pushing the chips in until they already had a young playoff team they drafted. Our position should be the same.

if there are too many young guys you get rid of the ones you dont believe should be part of your core, like Denver did Beasley and Nurkic. It's as simple as that.

Yeah, would hate to pick around the #10 or #12 spot and get some scrub like *checks who has been available in the late lottery over the last ten years* Tyrese Maxey, Desmond Bane, Malachi Flynn, Xavier Tillman, Paul Reed, PJ Washington, Matisse Thybulle, Brandon Clarke, Nic Claxton, Talen Horton Tucker, Miles Bridges, Michael Porter Jr, Donte DiVincenzo, Kevin Huerter, Mitchell Robinson, Gary Trent Jr, De'Anthony Melton, Shake Milton, Donovan Mitchell, Bam Adebayo, John Collins, Jarrett Allen, OG Anunoby, Derrick White, Monte Morris, Domantas Sabonis, Malik Beasley, Pascal Siakam, Dejounte Murray, Ivica Zubac, Myles Turner, Devin Booker, etc.

Why would I do that when I could trade the #10 pick to get Larry Nance, who is worse than a huge portion of those players and is also 28 and so has very little likelihood of improving much further?

Thybulle, Washington, Bane, Tillman, Bridges, Porter J, DiVincenzo, Huerter, Robinson, Mitchell, Bam, Collins, Allen, OG, Sabonis, Siakam, Murray, Zubac, Turner, Beasley, and Booker are all better today than Nance is, and of the guys who aren't better (Flynn, Maxey, Reed, THT, etc) they are basically all at least 3 years younger.

If you have faith in your drafting department, why would you trade a lottery pick for someone who on his best day is not as good as potential, and realistic, 10th pick outcomes? Like, we all know that expecting a guy you pick around there to be Bam or Booker is a bit unrealistic, but it's not unreal to suggest that if you draft well this year, there will be guys who can produce Malik Beasley levels of value for a team within their rookie contract hovering around the 10th pick, and that's already better value than you'd get from Nance in the same time period and is probably cheaper and you'd have their full bird rights at the end as well.

[As I See It]

Yeah, would hate to pick around the #10 or #12 spot and get some scrub like *checks who has been available in the late lottery over the last ten years* Tyrese Maxey, Desmond Bane, Malachi Flynn, Xavier Tillman, Paul Reed, PJ Washington, Matisse Thybulle, Brandon Clarke, Nic Claxton, Talen Horton Tucker, Miles Bridges, Michael Porter Jr, Donte DiVincenzo, Kevin Huerter, Mitchell Robinson, Gary Trent Jr, De'Anthony Melton, Shake Milton, Donovan Mitchell, Bam Adebayo, John Collins, Jarrett Allen, OG Anunoby, Derrick White, Monte Morris, Domantas Sabonis, Malik Beasley, Pascal Siakam, Dejounte Murray, Ivica Zubac, Myles Turner, Devin Booker, etc.

Why would I do that when I could trade the #10 pick to get Larry Nance, who is worse than a huge portion of those players and is also 28 and so has very little likelihood of improving much further?

Thybulle, Washington, Bane, Tillman, Bridges, Porter J, DiVincenzo, Huerter, Robinson, Mitchell, Bam, Collins, Allen, OG, Sabonis, Siakam, Murray, Zubac, Turner, Beasley, and Booker are all better today than Nance is, and of the guys who aren't better (Flynn, Maxey, Reed, THT, etc) they are basically all at least 3 years younger.

If you have faith in your drafting department, why would you trade a lottery pick for someone who on his best day is not as good as potential, and realistic, 10th pick outcomes? Like, we all know that expecting a guy you pick around there to be Bam or Booker is a bit unrealistic, but it's not unreal to suggest that if you draft well this year, there will be guys who can produce Malik Beasley levels of value for a team within their rookie contract hovering around the 10th pick, and that's already better value than you'd get from Nance in the same time period and is probably cheaper and you'd have their full bird rights at the end as well.

Like you, I'm looking forward to another 18 year old....NOT!!! If they pick, I pray it's Kispert. We are low on our selection of pacifiers.

[Silverfoxx]

Yeah, would hate to pick around the #10 or #12 spot and get some scrub like *checks who has been available in the late lottery over the last ten years* Tyrese Maxey, Desmond Bane, Malachi Flynn, Xavier Tillman, Paul Reed, PJ Washington, Matisse Thybulle, Brandon Clarke, Nic Claxton, Talen Horton Tucker, Miles Bridges, Michael Porter Jr, Donte DiVincenzo, Kevin Huerter, Mitchell Robinson, Gary Trent Jr, De'Anthony Melton, Shake Milton, Donovan Mitchell, Bam Adebayo, John Collins, Jarrett Allen, OG Anunoby, Derrick White, Monte Morris, Domantas Sabonis, Malik Beasley, Pascal Siakam, Dejounte Murray, Ivica Zubac, Myles Turner, Devin Booker, etc.

Why would I do that when I could trade the #10 pick to get Larry Nance, who is worse than a huge portion of those players and is also 28 and so has very little likelihood of improving much further?

Thybulle, Washington, Bane, Tillman, Bridges, Porter J, DiVincenzo, Huerter, Robinson, Mitchell, Bam, Collins, Allen, OG, Sabonis, Siakam, Murray, Zubac, Turner, Beasley, and Booker are all better today than Nance is, and of the guys who aren't better (Flynn, Maxey, Reed, THT, etc) they are basically all at least 3 years younger.

If you have faith in your drafting department, why would you trade a lottery pick for someone who on his best day is not as good as potential, and realistic, 10th pick outcomes? Like, we all know that expecting a guy you pick around there to be Bam or Booker is a bit unrealistic, but it's not unreal to suggest that if you draft well this year, there will be guys who can produce Malik Beasley levels of value for a team within their rookie contract hovering around the 10th pick, and that's already better value than you'd get from Nance in the same time period and is probably cheaper and you'd have their full bird rights at the end as well.

I mean I agree with you on alot of this, but you truly have to factor in the accelerated clock we are on. There is a real timeline where we do what you suggest, best case the rookie shows a ton of flashes and we miss the playoffs and the next year is Zion contract extension time, would be a BIG chance he doesn't sign if we don't make the playoffs sure fire.

[Pelicanidae]

I mean I agree with you on alot of this, but you truly have to factor in the accelerated clock we are on. There is a real timeline where we do what you suggest, best case the rookie shows a ton of flashes and we miss the playoffs and the next year is Zion contract extension time, would be a BIG chance he doesn't sign if we don't make the playoffs sure fire.

I get what you're saying (though I don't think ''best case'' is that the rookie has flashes, the best case is that they're immediately very good, as some of those guys I mentioned have been) but at the same time it's opportunity cost.

If you have the choice to pick between a guy who is maybe a 6.5/10 player today but is 19 and has tons of room to grow, or a 7/10 player who is 28 and is what he is, I feel like that slight superiority in year 1 is not worth the loss of the development time with the guy who is almost as good anyway and has room to grow. You run a real risk there of not making the playoffs anyway because the guy you got isn't much better than the rookie would have been, and all of a sudden the next year, that rookie is a 7.5/10 and better than the guy you passed him over to get.

I'm not saying that we should draft some complete project with no tools or skills and just hope, but there are real guys in this draft who have legitimate skills which will be functional from day one.

Let's say we get the 10th pick. Either you trade it or you use it. If we trade it and acquire, say, Nance, what does he give us? A long, solid defensive wing who shoots a mediocre 3 ball on mediocre volume and sucks at the FT and is 28 years old. Why not just use it to draft Franz Wagner, who is a long, excellent defensive wing who shoots a mediocre 3 ball on mediocre volume but is better at the FT line and is 19? The odds are that within the length of Zion's rookie deal (the next 2 years) Franz will give you as much value or more than Nance would, and because he's younger his long term growth is much more easy to assume.

Plus, let's just assume the absolute worst and Zion leaves or demands a trade. Who would you rather have, 30 year old Nance looking for what will likely be his last major payday, or 21/22 year old Franz Wagner with 2 years left on his rookie deal and room to develop? I know which I'd prefer.

[ml wave]

If you look at it from the perspective of someone getting paid to win games (coach/GM) you'll take the "proven" veteran player over the unknown rookie. There's been a lot of good players drafted in our projected lottery range the last few years (also players not nearly that good but whatever). Heck, we think we might have one in Kira...but, as a perfect example, he's struggled to get rotation minutes all season and isn't really helping us win. Assuming there's pressure from ownership to win (that always seems to be the case here), you're going to trade the pick for a vet every time.

[luckyman]

So some village idiot posts that Griff really wanted Larry Nance Jr and offered picks for him, and we just run with that? Nobody asks for proof or receipts or nothing? Just go with it?

I also don't think this franchise is on some accelerated time table. For what? There is still plenty enough time to continue to nail your draft picks, UDFAs, trades, and FAs for this team to legitimately make the playoffs and win a series. Perhaps even be a contender.

Griff is on record that they want to play the long game. This is what the long game looks like. I could have sworn this is what people around here asked for.

Back to the main topic...Isaiah Todd is going to be a steal for somebody.

[As I See It]

If you look at it from the perspective of someone getting paid to win games (coach/GM) you'll take the "proven" veteran player over the unknown rookie. There's been a lot of good players drafted in our projected lottery range the last few years (also players not nearly that good but whatever). Heck, we think we might have one in Kira...but, as a perfect example, he's struggled to get rotation minutes all season and isn't really helping us win. Assuming there's pressure from ownership to win (that always seems to be the case here), you're going to trade the pick for a vet every time.

And, Kira wouldn't be in the rotation today had NAW and JHart still been available. Even, Naji has benefitted from these two injuries.

[Pelicanidae]

So some village idiot posts that Griff really wanted Larry Nance Jr and offered picks for him, and we just run with that? Nobody asks for proof or receipts or nothing? Just go with it?

I also don't think this franchise is on some accelerated time table. For what? There is still plenty enough time to continue to nail your draft picks, UDFAs, trades, and FAs for this team to legitimately make the playoffs and win a series. Perhaps even be a contender.

Griff is on record that they want to play the long game. This is what the long game looks like. I could have sworn this is what people around here asked for.

Back to the main topic...Isaiah Todd is going to be a steal for somebody.

I wasn't really assuming that Nance truly is the target, I was just using him as the example to demonstrate the general position I have, since his name had come up. Obviously the logic applies to pretty much any not-great-but-fine rotation guy.

[MichaelMcNamara]

So some village idiot posts that Griff really wanted Larry Nance Jr and offered picks for him, and we just run with that? Nobody asks for proof or receipts or nothing? Just go with it?

I also don't think this franchise is on some accelerated time table. For what? There is still plenty enough time to continue to nail your draft picks, UDFAs, trades, and FAs for this team to legitimately make the playoffs and win a series. Perhaps even be a contender.

Griff is on record that they want to play the long game. This is what the long game looks like. I could have sworn this is what people around here asked for.

Back to the main topic...Isaiah Todd is going to be a steal for somebody.

I mean, you always get the future right -- predict things in advance that NOBODY else saw coming. So why dont you just tell us who we will draft so we can avoid all the wasted time and effort and start studying that guy now

[MichaelMcNamara]

Yeah, would hate to pick around the #10 or #12 spot and get some scrub like *checks who has been available in the late lottery over the last ten years* Tyrese Maxey, Desmond Bane, Malachi Flynn, Xavier Tillman, Paul Reed, PJ Washington, Matisse Thybulle, Brandon Clarke, Nic Claxton, Talen Horton Tucker, Miles Bridges, Michael Porter Jr, Donte DiVincenzo, Kevin Huerter, Mitchell Robinson, Gary Trent Jr, De'Anthony Melton, Shake Milton, Donovan Mitchell, Bam Adebayo, John Collins, Jarrett Allen, OG Anunoby, Derrick White, Monte Morris, Domantas Sabonis, Malik Beasley, Pascal Siakam, Dejounte Murray, Ivica Zubac, Myles Turner, Devin Booker, etc.

Why would I do that when I could trade the #10 pick to get Larry Nance, who is worse than a huge portion of those players and is also 28 and so has very little likelihood of improving much further?

Thybulle, Washington, Bane, Tillman, Bridges, Porter J, DiVincenzo, Huerter, Robinson, Mitchell, Bam, Collins, Allen, OG, Sabonis, Siakam, Murray, Zubac, Turner, Beasley, and Booker are all better today than Nance is, and of the guys who aren't better (Flynn, Maxey, Reed, THT, etc) they are basically all at least 3 years younger.

If you have faith in your drafting department, why would you trade a lottery pick for someone who on his best day is not as good as potential, and realistic, 10th pick outcomes? Like, we all know that expecting a guy you pick around there to be Bam or Booker is a bit unrealistic, but it's not unreal to suggest that if you draft well this year, there will be guys who can produce Malik Beasley levels of value for a team within their rookie contract hovering around the 10th pick, and that's already better value than you'd get from Nance in the same time period and is probably cheaper and you'd have their full bird rights at the end as well.

I would ask again for people to look at the history and log how many guys help the teams who draft them on their rookie contract, at an above average level. It doesnt happen nearly as much as people think. A lot of guys taken in the first round turn out to be quality players. Not nearly as many as you guys might think actually help the team who drafts them. Like, Frank Jackson is likely to be a useful NBA player. He provided nothing to the team who drafted him. This is the norm for role players. So, basically, to get value out of your pick, you gotta get a guy who becomes a good starter or better - which again is rare

People need to stop looking at drafts and count how many guys became good or decent. Start counting how many players provided quality play for the team that drafted them. Its much, much more rare than you think

[luckyman]

I wasn't really assuming that Nance truly is the target, I was just using him as the example to demonstrate the general position I have, since his name had come up. Obviously the logic applies to pretty much any not-great-but-fine rotation guy.

My post wasn't targeted to you. Again, the village idiot.