God. I hope we don’t further Asik up withFavors.
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God. I hope we don’t further Asik up withFavors.
How strong do you feel about trading him? Would you trade him for a fake second round pick? Or a meh rotation player like Kyle Anderson? Or absolutely dead salary like Cristiano Felicio? If there is no meaningful value to be had, would you still be insistent to trade him just to get him off the team?Originally Posted by Pelicanidae
I'm currently debating this myself.
I would obviously want some return back, in a perfect world. I recognise that isn't going to be a star or anything, both because of Ball's low value and his relatively moderate contract, but in a perfect world there would be some value coming our way. I feel comfortable saying a first round pick would probably do it, especially if it was from a not-great team. You're not likely to get a super valuable pick for Ball, there's no way that the Knicks move their 2021 FRP for him for example, but you might be able to net a pick likely to fall in the teens and then I'd be interested.
Part of me says that yes, I would be insistent on trading him just to get him off the team. The reason for this is that he's a #2 pick with an intense amount of name recognition, fan following, media attention, etc, and if he's on the team the odds are that whoever the coach is, they're going to feel pressured to play him. Probably to start him too. And given the fact that I want to start looking at a more realistic long term solution at the PG position, I don't want Lonzo being forced into the picture due to name-recognition or hype, and getting in the way of that. It may be easier and cleaner to just dump him.
But then you do get into the value discussion again. So it's a debate I'm having that I'm not entirely decided on yet.
Basketball.
I would package him with our # 1 to move up for Avdija or Hayes and maybe a throw in player. By himself, you would get nothing. My dream trade would be to the Knicks for their # 1 and Elfrid.
I think the problem with this is that hype overrides reality.
You attach picks when you need to add perceived value for a trade. You attach picks when you need to beef up your offer; if you are trying to move a player and you attach a pick, you do it because you basically acknowledge in advance that the player isn't good and that you need to bribe someone to take him.
I think Lonzo has more value around the league than that. Maybe I'm wrong, but there are a lot of bad teams out there who might be interested in taking him - a big name with a ton of hype and media attention attached to him - to see if they can be the ones to unlock his hidden skill. In reality those skills might not exist but that doesn't matter.
You see what you can get for him on his own first, and you only start adding things if you see an avenue for an advantageous trade opening up if you do.
How would you feel about Conley. I think I'd feel worried about the pecking order, but I'd also feel more comfortable moving Jrue.
Not great to be honest. I understand why some people might gravitate towards him, but he has the follow black marks against him in my evaluation:
- He's 33 years old
- He fell off a cliff in the last year, especially defensively, despite moving to a defensively focused team
- He's been increasingly injured over the last few years: in the last 5 seasons, he's had seasons of 56, 12, and 48 games played.
His contract being an expiring does make its size a little less hideous, but it also means that he would be a stop-gap solution, and a very expensive one at that. If I'm taking on a risky player who might not give me even 50 games or good play, I want that risk to come with the potential for upside. Conley doesn't really have that at this stage of his career.
The best move is for him to come out hot next season for him to have any trade value. Hire him a personal coach. If he refuses to get better at things that doesn't involve chucking up 3s. Cut him.
I'm past the point of debating semantics with dude that avgs 50% FT and wants to pop off Twitter. If he doesn't have the work ethic. Cut him If doesn't want to get in the gym and strengthen his lower core. Cut him. If all he wants to do is practice his 3pt shoot. Cut him.
Ball doesn't deserve the energy for a 4 page thread. He is what he is. If he gonna fold up in the face of adversity. Cut him or trade him.
Last edited by Taker597; 08-10-2020 at 06:15 PM.
If he played better next year to have higher trade value, it wouldn't make sense to trade him because at that point we'd want to keep him. We should either trade him now or let it all play out and either let him walk after next season or sign him to a new contract. Since it's a contract year it would make more sense for his value to be higher now anyway because whatever team we'd trade him to would want the year to evaluate him themselves.
That also runs the risk of him coming out cold next season to remove any goodwill that he had left. And given his track record in the overwhelming majority of games he's played in the NBA so far, that's the more likely outcome.
Just move him now before the last few people in the NBA realise he's worse than he is good. If anything, this board's insistence that actually he was quite good before the bubble tells us that some people are going to buy that he was improving and that the bubble is an exception. Cash in that goodwill right now and get something out of it, before the regular season can return and reveal that he was garbage all along.
The thing is... Ball has negative value at his salary. I don't see anyone moving for him. I ain't jumping on this train of dragging a 20 year old through mud by calling him garbage. It's brash and unnecessary.
It's either he has to get better or get cut/benched & contract run out. We know how this will probably play out with our conservative front office wasting trade value. The lack of humility makes me want to be done with him.
He's 22, and I'm only slightly older than him so I'm allowed
He's 22, and I'm only slightly older than him so I'm allowed
Tell me Peak Lonzo Ball got value lol.
Time to flush #2 down the toilet.
Last edited by Taker597; 08-10-2020 at 07:57 PM.
Hey, I never said he had value because he's good lol
Tell me Peak Lonzo Ball got value lol.
Time to flush #2 down the toilet.
I said he might still have some value because he's relatively young, there's a renewed wave of hype cause his brother's coming in, he has a huge media presence and still draws attention, and he has very very vocal and adamant supporters.
Look at the people on this board. Even some of the people that support trading him are still saying that he was pretty solid this year. This isn't true as far as I'm concerned, but if people on this board believe it, and they don't even want him, I'd at least want to test the waters to find out if some really bad teams run by idiots out there believe it too.
They don’t want to admit what he really is, because it negatively reflects the perceive value of the AD trade. Which was never really that great.
It's just simple denial. Like the reasons his stats aren't even worse, because he didn't shot himself out of the building on most nights.
Last edited by Taker597; 08-10-2020 at 08:25 PM.
Maybe that's the case, though I'm not really interested in trying to second guess the psychology of Ball supporters. If they say they think he was better this year, then I'll believe that's what they think, even if I think they're wrong.
I guess being marginally better than awful, but still awful is their moral victory. This whole squad was hot garbage except for Ingram and Jrue to some extent in the early season till Zion came back. Jrue best skill is team defense, but you need a team for it to show out besides individual moments.
Last edited by Taker597; 08-10-2020 at 09:14 PM.
Yeah, the majority of the team was bad early on. But part of the defense some people have made of Lonzo was that everyone was bad early so it's not a big deal that Lonzo was too.
Lonzo until Christmas: 10.1 points, 5.0 rebounds, 5.2 assists per game. 37.4% FG, 33.3%3PT, 50.0% FT.
Ingram until Christmas: 25.3 points, 7.1 rebounds, 3.8 assists per game. 48.9% FG, 41.0% 3PT, 84.6% FT.
Jrue until Christmas: 19.7 points, 5.1 rebounds, 6.5 assists per game. 43.5% FG, 34.1% 3PT, 69.3% FT.
Redick until Christmas: 15.8 points, 3.0 rebounds, 1.9 assists per game. 44.7% FG, 45.8% 3PT, 87.9% FT
Hart until Christmas: 11.8 points, 6.0 rebounds, 1.9 assists per game. 41.9% FG, 36.9% 3PT, 81.4% FT (Hart's percentages actually got worse later in the year lol)
So that's a look at Lonzo's stats compared to everyone else's until Christmas. Obviously jsut looking at a statline doesnt tell you everything you need to know about a player and how they're doing, but still; it's pretty clear that Lonzo''s early season struggles were worse than pretty much anyone else's.
Is there a way to find out how many games our starting PG was sitting at games' end in five point or less decisions? That free throw percentage forces it.
There is, it's called ''manually look up all the games in which the Pelicans went into crunch time and then look at the rotation charts from each game to find out who was on the floor in the final minute''. Maybe there's an easier way but I don't know it.
You can look up individual players' crunch performance though on the NBA Stats site.
Here's some notable crunch stats from our players. The NBA Stats site defines crunch time or the clutch as the final 5 minutes of a game where the difference in score is 5 points or less.
Ingram: Played a total of 115 clutch minutes. Scored 71 clutch points. Shot 33.3% from the floor and 25% from 3 in clutch minutes. Total -118 BPM
Jrue: Played a total of 113 clutch minutes. Scored 50 points. Shot 34.0% from the floor, 26.7% from 3 in clutch minutes. Total -98 BPM.
Lonzo Ball: Played a total of 105 clutch minutes. Scored 29 points. Shot 33.3% from the floor, 29.4% from 3 in clutch time. -77 BPM
Josh Hart: Played a total of 78 clutch minutes. Scored 21 points. 31.6% from the floor, 25% from 3 in clutch. -96 BPM
Redick: Played 67 clutch minutes. Scored 35 points. Shot 38.5% from the floor, 35.3% from 3 in clutch minutes. Total -34 BPM
Favors: 66 clutch minutes, 23 points. 69.2% from the floor. -10 BPM
Beyond that and you get into guys with like, 20 minutes played and I'm not bothering to write out everyone who played fewer than 50 minutes in the clutch.
Austin Rivers used to be completely trash at layups and now he's very crafty at finishing around the rim. So there is hope
Yes, all the Pels were terrible in the clutch this season. Beyond that, Jrue has never been that great in the clutch. With his skill set, craftiness and experience, it would seem like he would be by this point, but he hasn't been to date and he's almost 30. I like so much about Holiday as a player, but I think we have a large enough sample size to understand (unlike Griff, apparently) what you can expect from him and what you can't. He's just not consistent enough to be a top-level guy. Sure, some game's he looks to be. But he reliably will come back and throw in a clunker or two, often when it counts most. From afar, I'd chalk it up to him lacking a true killer instinct. He's too even keeled to be a closer. The whole team is that way.
I'm not ready to write Lonzo off based on this stretch. There were always question marks about his ceiling, but in general I think the league writes off young players too quickly. If he's Ricky Rubio is that the worst outcome as a point guard? But Lonzo and Jrue together is a real issue. Can you really have a starting backcourt in today's NBA where neither guy is really a shooter? Can you have one where neither guy shoots over 70% from the line? I have my doubts. Maybe if they are elite defensively together, but we didn't see that this year despite all the hype about them being a shut down duo on defense before the season. Now if Lonzo really can be around 40% from behind the arc and fix his FT% and problems finishing at the rim, then, yes maybe it can work. But that's a lot of maybes...
So the fact that Ball was coming off of a foot injury did not play into his slow start? I do think he improved last year. Enough to say I am comfortable with him as our lead PG for the future? No. But would I dump him for scraps? Not yet.
This really doesn't make any sense at all. He's making 11 million dollars next year, so he's surely not a negative value. A player who can play meaningful rotation minutes on a rookie contract is always a positive value. Once he signs an extension/FA contract, then sure he may be a negative value.
He's not a lead guard. Whatever. Most people on here knew that before the season started. That doesn't mean he isn't talented. He's not Austin Rivers at the end of his deal with the Hornets.
Trade him or don't trade him, it doesn't really matter to me if you're not bringing in a lead guard. If you trade Lonzo just to go get Evan Fournier then we're in the exact same position. The meaningful aspect of this whole Lonzo discussion is we need a guy at the 1 who can get to the rim and finish (and get to the line), as well as hit the 3 at a respectable rate.
I like Zo, and I think he will be better as time and coaching goes on. He didn’t have great coaching in LA, and coaching here was slightly better (and he performed slightly better because of it). If you can get him with a legit player development coach who knows how much better he can be.
If you Jimmer it, they will come.
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