4th February - New Orleans Pelicans vs Milwaukee Bucks - 20-30

[Pelicanidae]

We lost last game. It was irritating. We did a lot of things wrong, and our aversion to going inside was at its most glaring; Lonzo took only one shot inside the arc all game, and Zion didn't get a shot for the last 10 minutes of the 4th quarter. We had 21 turnovers. It was ugly, it was frustrating, it was bad, but now it's over and we move on.

Here's the injury report for this game:

Two players listed on New Orleans-Milwaukee injury report presented by @MorrisBartLLC ⬇️https://t.co/8GyiUbaDzD pic.twitter.com/bNRHEDmuDg

— New Orleans Pelicans (@PelicansNBA) February 3, 2020

No changes, it's Kenrich and Darius.

Tonight, we return to the Smoothie King Centre to take on the Milwaukee Bucks. Contrary to our hopes, it appears Giannis will play; he played in their game against Phoenix last night, where he dropped 30/19/9 in 30 minutes of play.

There's no doubt that, despite all the media talk surrounding LA this year, the Bucks are the clear best team in the NBA. They currently sit at 42-7, on pace for 70 wins. They have lost one (yes, one) game to a sub .500 team all year; they have gone 36-4 in their last 40 games, and have picked up dominating wins over Portland, Indiana, LA, Memphis, LAC, Utah, and Toronto. We played them once already this year: we lost by 15. Giannis didn't even play in that game.

Of course, Giannis is their real engine. They're at his best when he's on the floor. He's this year's clear MVP leader, and has a strong argument for DPOY as well. He's averaging about 30/13/6 in barely 30 minutes per night, on +4%rTS. He leads the NBA in VORP, BPM, WS/48, PER, and PIPM; the gap between his PIPM (8.26) and 2nd place (Kawhi Leonard, 6.58) is larger than the gap between 2nd place and 6th.

The result of this is that Milwaukee currently possess the league's 2nd best ORtg and the league's number 1 DRtg. Milwaukee's defensive ability comes from their recognition that the rim is the highest priority in any defensive scheme; as a result, they protect it more than anything else. They are top 3 in blocks, #1 in opponent's 2PT%, and their at-rim differential is nearly 3 times stingier than the 2nd best team at nearly 10% below average (Portland is 2nd at about 3.5% below average). They are 2nd in FG%, 11th in 3pt%, 1st in rebounds, 4th in assists, and #1 in scoring.

Behind Giannis, Khris Middleton is currently averaging 20/6/4 on 50/44/90 shooting.

Tonight, all I want to see is more focus and superior execution from last game. I would absolutely, absolutely love a victory, but I'm not dumb enough to get upset if we don't get one. This game would be our clear best victory of the year if we pulled it off, so it's not something I'm expecting. We just need to go out there and show up. Anything else is a bonus. #WBD.

[msusousaphone]

To use a college football comparison, the Bucks are the Clemson Tigers of the NBA. They have had the #1 very tip easiest schedule in the league. We know they are good but their schedule is so easy we don't know how good. Are they the championship Clemson from last year....or the clearly overrated Clemson from this year? We won't know until the Finals.

Now, are we the LSU of the NBA? Hell no. So this game will be tough. And if we lose we will just go down as another loser statistic win dragging down MIL's SOS. But they're not for sure juggernauts. This game will be fun to watch.

[AD-AT]

The only way I see us winning this is if we go insane from 3pt with really high %.

Other than that I just want to see a smart game from Jrue. This is the type of game where he tries to do too much to keep us in it and has 6 or more TOs. He has to take more responsibility with those because once he has a dumb possession then it gives Lonzo and BI the greenlight to try crazy possessions that lead to bad TOs.

Side note: players should be required to run a 10k everytime they miss a full court pass into the stands. We have to lead the league in those by a mile...

[Pelicanidae]

Bucks schedule has definitely been favourable, but it's not like they haven't crushed good teams as well. They're 7-0 against LAL, Houston, OKC, Toronto, and LAC, for.example.

It's fair to wonder if they're actually 70 wins good, but they're undoubtedly good enough to turn us into paste on most nights.

[msusousaphone]

Favourable is a very....favourable...way to talk about the absolute easiedt schedule. I mean, it's not just in the top 10....or even top 5.....it IS the top. And like Clemson of last year, they turned out to be best by a wide margin. Only time will tell. They may he 70 wins good, but it's only because their schedule will remain easy. Like Clemson going undefeated against a weak conference.

Now, I would expect us to get creamed in a playoff series against the Bucks....I think we have decent odds on a regular season home game, though. Excited for this one.

[boot318]

We ain't winning this one. We couldn't even defeat a Houston team with no center & Westbrook played poorly.

[PELICANSFAN]

Favourable is a very....favourable...way to talk about the absolute easiedt schedule. I mean, it's not just in the top 10....or even top 5.....it IS the top. And like Clemson of last year, they turned out to be best by a wide margin. Only time will tell. They may he 70 wins good, but it's only because their schedule will remain easy. Like Clemson going undefeated against a weak conference.

Now, I would expect us to get creamed in a playoff series against the Bucks....I think we have decent odds on a regular season home game, though. Excited for this one.

That's not accurate. Teams do not win 70 games because their schedule it easy. Eventually, they play basically the same teams the rest of the East plays. Their schedule may appear easy because the toughest team in the East is not on their schedule - them.

[Pelicanidae]

What will be interesting to me is to see how Zion plays. As I said in the OP, Milwaukee are the league's best defensive team at the rim. Zion is, so far, a historically great at-rim scorer. Hopefully we can see some more of his passing game.

Assuming he gets touches idk, that doesn't seem to be a priority of ours

[Pelicanidae]

That's not accurate. Teams do not win 70 games because their schedule it easy. Eventually, they play basically the same teams the rest of the East plays. Their schedule may appear easy because the toughest team in the East is not on their schedule - them.

Yeah there's no such thing as a weak 70 win team. You win 70 games, you're really good. Eventually you have to play everyone.

[Creative]

To be honest, I think we have a pretty good chance of winning this game. Let's build another winning streak...

[Pelicanidae]

To be honest, I think we have a pretty good chance of winning this game. Let's build another winning streak...

Why is that? The only real advantage I could think of is that they're on the 2nd night of a back to back.

[Wowowowow]

If we lose the phantom selfishness and play like we have the most dominant player this league has seen in a while inside we have a good chance.

Whatever that stunt was that was pulled last game has to be corralled.

[msusousaphone]

That's not accurate. Teams do not win 70 games because their schedule it easy. Eventually, they play basically the same teams the rest of the East plays. Their schedule may appear easy because the toughest team in the East is not on their schedule - them.

Yes. Like Clemson going undefeated every year. The analogy isn't perfect since there IS some overplay outside the conference and some decent teams in conference but they're also not undefeated, either.

I would much rather my team have 50 wins with the toughest SOS than 70 wins with the easiest. So SOS has a lot to do with it.

[PELICANSFAN]

Yes. Like Clemson going undefeated every year. The analogy isn't perfect since there IS some overplay outside the conference and some decent teams in conference but they're also not undefeated, either.

I would much rather my team have 50 wins with the toughest SOS than 70 wins with the easiest. So SOS has a lot to do with it.

That is not an accurate comparison at all. Clemson does not play the same teams that say LSU or Alabama or Ohio State do. They choose who they play., The Bucks have to play the same teams everyone else in the East plays with the exception of themselves.

[msusousaphone]

No they don't. In the NBA, every conference team does not play the other conference teams the same amount of times.

The Bucks do not have to play the same amount of teams that say The Lakers or The Clippers or even the Sixers do.

[Pelicanidae]

If we lose the phantom selfishness and play like we have the most dominant player this league has seen in a while inside we have a good chance.

Whatever that stunt was that was pulled last game has to be corralled.

Yeah, unfortunately the Bucks have the league's most dominant interior defense, which is something Houston very much didn't have.

So what will happen is that we'll try to feed Zion early in the game, with zero ball movement and zero player movement on the perimeter, forcing Zion away from passes (since none will be open) and into scoring attempts. He'll get blocked twice, and miss a bunny, and that'll be used as the excuse to freeze him out later.

''We tried to get him touches but it was clear that it wasn't working, so we went back to our game plan.''

Somethin' like that, anyway.

[Pelicanidae]

Nickeil Alexander-Walker (Illness) is doubtful for tonight's game

Story: https://t.co/QtMuiRmzvX#Pelicans @MorrisBartLLC

— New Orleans Pelicans (@PelicansNBA) February 4, 2020

I report this for the sake of completeness. But it's not like NAW would have got run anyway.

[Creative]

Why is that? The only real advantage I could think of is that they're on the 2nd night of a back to back.

Just a hunch, I expect sporting anger after our last loss.

[new city champ]

We beat the Rockets if we don’t turn the ball over 21 times and hit a few late free throws. Bucks are tough but if take care of the ball we can hang with anyone. Key stat: Pels win if they are 10 or less turnovers and 25+ assists.

[PELICANSFAN]

No they don't. In the NBA, every conference team does not play the other conference teams the same amount of times.

The Bucks do not have to play the same amount of teams that say The Lakers or The Clippers or even the Sixers do.

I said East. So, yes they do play the same teams as the others in the East (with only minor differences to match up out of division games). They all play the same teams in the west as well. If a team won say 45-47 games, I could see the argument for an easier schedule than a closer team based on the minor differences. However, to attribute 70 wins to an easy schedule does not make any sense,.

[Pelicanidae]

Apparently, and I did not realise this when I wrote the OP, we live in a world where saying that a team on pace to win 70 games is clearly good at basketball, is controversial.

[Pelicanidae]

Small sample size for Zion Williamson, but according to NBA Advanced Stats, Zion and Giannis Antetokounmpo rank 1-2 in paint points and dunks/layups per game this season pic.twitter.com/ro4mj2bGP8

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) February 4, 2020

[Pelicanidae]

Really think tonight could be a perfect storm of ugly.

Bucks defend the rim better than anyone else. And we have a team filled with guys who are extremely easy to deter from the paint. Could easily picture a first quarter where we get so stifled on the inside that we resort to just chucking the rest of the game. And at that point it comes down to variance whether we make them or not.

Could be a 45 threes kind of night. Which is not great, usually.

The only guy I really trust to get into the paint and attack is Zion, but I have my questions about how well the team.overall has been using him so far, and general reluctance from everyone last game to get him touches is concerning.

[As I See It]

Alvin, play Melli!!!!

[AD-AT]

The only guy I really trust to get into the paint and attack is Zion, but I have my questions about how well the team.overall has been using him so far, and general reluctance from everyone last game to get him touches is concerning.

I've seen you say something similar a couple times now and I just wanted to ask for clarity. Are you saying you have issues with the fact that guys weren't b ball smart enough to get Zion the ball in the 4th, or are you saying you think guys are actively refusing to pass to him for whatever selfish or heroball reason?

I'm not trying to put words in your mouth. I have just been interpreting it the 2nd way.