Pre-Zion Phase Over: How Did We Do?

[Pelicanidae]

As we all know and appreciate, on Wednesday Zion will make his regular season debut for the Pelicans. That means that the pre-Zion phase of the year is over, and we'll be moving into the second phase of our season, pretty much at the half-way point. Things will be different after he's back, both positively and (in some ways I'll mention later) worse. So, it's as good a time as any to take stock and ask ourselves: how have we done so far?

We have played 42 games without him, and in the course of those games we have gone 17-27, for a win %age of about 40.4%.

Listed below are the team's stats, and their ranks league-wide at this 42 game point.

Points per Game: 114.4 (5th)
Opponent PPG: 117.6 (29th)
Pace: 103.1 (5th)
Offensive Rating: 109.7 (18th)
Defensive Rating: 112.7 (25th)

Assists per game: 25.5 (8th)
Rebounds per game: 45.9 (11th)
Steals per game: 7.3 (22nd)
Blocks per game: 5.2 (11th)

FG%: 45.4% (18th)
2PT%: 51.5% (20th)
3PT%: 37.0% (5th)
FT% 73.7% (27th)

To me that looks pretty good in some areas (ppg, apg, 3pt%, for example) and pretty dreadful in others (Oppnt PPG, DRtg, 2pt%, ft%). So the question for me is this: is Zion likely to help us in the areas we need help most?

Well, luckily enough, I think the answer is yes.

Interior Scoring

We are 20th in the league in 2pt attempts, shoot relatively poorly on them, and we take less than 35% of our shots at the rim: this is the reason that despite our high 3pt% and volume, our offense is still a little subpar. Zion is going to help out in this department massively; he is a monster in the paint, and finishes at a ridiculously high efficiency. By removing some of the less optimal mid-range and 3pt shots and re-locating them to the paint with Zion, we should see our at-rim volume and efficiency soar. And of course, more of the most valuable shots in basketball will reflect well on our ORtg.

Defense, Deflections, Steals.

Another area that we aren't super strong is in forcing turnovers; bottom 10 in steals, our opponents only average 14.6 turnovers per game. This may sound fairly good, but it's actually pretty mediocre; about 16th in the league. Jrue leads the league in deflections per game and is top 10 in steals, so him being missing for a while has contributed to a slight drop in these categories, but Zion is no slouch either: in college, he posted a pretty ridiculous 3.9%STL, and averaged about 3 deflections per game (that statistic comes from my own measurements, it's not listed anywhere). His pre-season STL% of 2.3 was also impressive. He will take a little while to get up to speed in terms of team defense at an NBA level, rookies almost always do, but he will be a solid point-of-attack defender pretty quickly, and should force more than a few turnovers.

Rebounding

The final area that I think Zion will help us most notably as soon as he returns is defensive rebounding. Now, as listed above, our overall rebounding is pretty good: 11th in the league. But that's an inbalanced statistic; our strong offensive rebounding (8th) is boosting the numbers a little for our unimpressive defensive rebounding (14th). In college, Zion posted an 18% DREB, a number he matched at 18.9% in preseason, which would immediately make him one of our top 3 most effective defensive rebounders (assuming the number translates directly, which it may not). In fact, Zion's college overall REB% was 15.5%, a number which would be second only to Derrick Favors on our team if he were to able to directly recreate it. Even if he can't reach quite those heights, he should easily slot in as one of our top 5 rebounders and help out on the defensive glass.

Conclusion

So, given that this a very likely impact of the dude we've missed all year so far (I wouldn't be surprised if Zion ended up with a PIPM of around +1.5, which would be insane for a rookie), how have we done? Especially considering our murderous schedule thus far? You know, I think we've done okay. Not great (no time-span in which you lose 13 consecutive could be great) but okay. We've done okay! What are your thoughts? How would you rate our pre-Zion success? I'm going with 6/10. Could have been far better, but given the injuries and the schedule I still give it a positive rating (5/10 obviously being dead average).

Now it's time for phase 2.

via GIPHY

[Biasvasospasm]

I think on the court, we did okay given horrendous injury luck and a complete lack of continuity in our lineups. It's clear that we are very dependent on having a defensive anchor, and that there was not a defensive trust level early in the year. Some of that I think will gradually improve as long as Favors is in the lineup more in the second half of the year (unfortunately not a given).

I think in the big picture, we found two valuable things:
1. Brandon Ingram can be a star as a 3-level scorer who plays the hardest position to fill in basketball and is the second guy we build around in the long term.
2. Jaxson Hayes is already able to play and contribute as an overall positive player even though he is embryonic as a basketball player because he is one of the best athletes in the NBA.

For the second half of the season, we need to see how those guys, and other guys on the roster (chiefly Lonzo and Jrue) fit with Zion. If we have a good sense of that and show growth, this year was a success.

Now we need to see how those guys,

[Pilot172000]

I think post 13 game losing streak, we have been playing like a high seed playoff team. I read an article this morning about last nights game and we are 11-5 since we did some scheme changes. We are still only 3.5 games back of the 8th and playing well. I think that's fantastic given the hopelessness, we all felt during the streak.

[donato]

The injuries have been a blessing in disguise as far as I'm concerned. It's seen the evolution of Ingram as a star, rookie development in Hayes and NAW, and a bit of 2 steps forward/1 step back for Lonzo. Hopefully this team meshes well and stays healthy.

[P_B_&_G]

Dea, can you do the splits for before the 13 game losing streak and after until now. I think as of now you can split the season into 3 distinct sections.

[13 - 3]

Well that was a very long preseason and Alvin Gentry has 9 lives.

[As I See It]

I would be disingenuous if I didn't admit that I wanted Gentry's head three years ago and didn't want him to be any part of this 're-build'. Further, over the course of the first half of the season it's fair to say that I have had problems with some his in-game coaching decisions and rotations. And, I still think the team is woefully weak defensively which I attribute more to our youth (amateur basketball stresses offense) than I do to poor couching. All this said, AG has done a very credible job of:

A. Overcoming one of the toughest early season schedules with a young team and not imploding.
B. Overcoming a litany of injuries and games missed by key veteran leadership
C. Remaining in playoff contention and relevant absent the prized jewel of last year's draft class
D. Most importantly creating an environment in which the players seemingly enjoy going to battle with one another (this trumps what the body language of the team's mega-star said over the last several years).

This said, barring an absolute collapse in the second half, Gentry has earned the right to coach this team beyond this year.

[Pelicanidae]

Dea, can you do the splits for before the 13 game losing streak and after until now. I think as of now you can split the season into 3 distinct sections.

Sure. It's a little harder to find some of the stats (like ORtg) within-season cut-offs like this (you could probably find them but it would take forever, or you'd have to be using a paid service like Cleaning the Glass) but with a quick search, you're essentially looking at this.

The 13 game loss streak ended December 18th, with a win against Minnesota. So, here are our numbers prior to December 19th. Numbers in brackets are where those ratings would currently fall in the NBA, if we had maintained them.

Points per Game: 112.2 (13th)
Opponent PPG: 118.9 (29th)
Assists per game: 24.8 (12th)
Rebounds per game: 44.9 (19th)
Steals per game: 7.4 (20th)
Blocks per game: 4.9 (15th)

FG%: 44.7% (23rd)
3PT%: 36.4% (9th)
FT%: 73.3 (28th)

Compare that with the post-December 19th Stats posted here (ranks in brackets are where those numbers would fall if they were a teams whole-year numbers, not where these numbers rank in that span):

Points per Game: 118.7 (2nd)
Opponent PPG: 115.1 (26th)
Assists per Game: 26.9 (3rd)
Rebounds per Game: 47.7 (4th)
Steals per Game: 7.1 (22nd)
Blocks per game: 5.7 (8th)

FG%: 46.7% (9th)
3PT%: 38.0% (2nd)
FT%: 74.3% (25th)

So while I haven't delved into more complicated numbers like ORtg, you can see a clear improvement in our counting stats and efficiency, as well as our points-allowed, since breaking the losing streak. You can see that our opponents points allowed are still bad, but not as bad, and our assists per game have soared: this corresponds to an increase in efficiency from all over the field, since assisted baskets are almost always better looks than self-generated ones. That difference exists in 3pt land (and even a bit in FT%!) but the real difference is the leap in overall FG% from 23rd to 9th. That's a huge jump.

[P_B_&_G]

Sure. It's a little harder to find some of the stats (like ORtg) within-season cut-offs like this (you could probably find them but it would take forever, or you'd have to be using a paid service like Cleaning the Glass) but with a quick search, you're essentially looking at this.

The 13 game loss streak ended December 18th, with a win against Minnesota. So, here are our numbers prior to December 19th. Numbers in brackets are where those ratings would currently fall in the NBA, if we had maintained them.

Points per Game: 112.2 (13th)
Opponent PPG: 118.9 (29th)
Assists per game: 24.8 (12th)
Rebounds per game: 44.9 (19th)
Steals per game: 7.4 (20th)
Blocks per game: 4.9 (15th)

FG%: 44.7% (23rd)
3PT%: 36.4% (9th)
FT%: 73.3 (28th)

Compare that with the post-December 19th Stats posted here (ranks in brackets are where those numbers would fall if they were a teams whole-year numbers, not where these numbers rank in that span):

Points per Game: 118.7 (2nd)
Opponent PPG: 115.1 (26th)
Assists per Game: 26.9 (3rd)
Rebounds per Game: 47.7 (4th)
Steals per Game: 7.1 (22nd)
Blocks per game: 5.7 (8th)

FG%: 46.7% (9th)
3PT%: 38.0% (2nd)
FT%: 74.3% (25th)

So while I haven't delved into more complicated numbers like ORtg, you can see a clear improvement in our counting stats and efficiency, as well as our points-allowed, since breaking the losing streak. You can see that our opponents points allowed are still bad, but not as bad, and our assists per game have soared: this corresponds to an increase in efficiency from all over the field, since assisted baskets are almost always better looks than self-generated ones. That difference exists in 3pt land (and even a bit in FT%!) but the real difference is the leap in overall FG% from 23rd to 9th. That's a huge jump.

Thanks!

I thought for sure the defense took a large leap and its hard to see without the ratings. It appears that the offense has taken a huge leap. So we're right in Gentry's wheelhouse.