Where will Zion's minutes come from

[As I See It]

I say.....

1. May have seen the last of Ja (sadly). Mid-year trade bait.
2. Moore will be eased out as BI will get more time at the 3. Mid-year trade bait.
3. Jax will get more realistic minutes (fewer) for a raw rookie of his skillset and should.
4. Feel sorry for Melli. His few minutes will be even fewer.

It's going to be hard for this team to improve a lot offensively, but where the Zion-effect will be most noticeable is on the defensive end of the floor. Eventually, he and Favors should dominate the boards. A .500 record is easily in sight.

[msusousaphone]

You mean:

"What mortal has been using Lord Zion's minutes?"

Say 7 Hail Zions and an Act of Pelicantrition and all transgressions will be forgiven.

Brother Lee GIF from Brother GIFs

Lol. But I agree with your assessments. JJ will play less at SF. And as we get closer to the playoffs, we will probably get closer to 8 or 9 man rotations......so Lonzo, Jrue, JJ, BI, Zion, Favors, Hayes......Hart and then Melli and Jackson?

Then there's always the trade deadline.

[Eman5805]

If the solution is a litle less Frank Jackson and Jahlil Okafor, so be it.

[13 - 3]

[AtlPelsFan]

We will see more of etwaun than jackson. He is a great bench guy that can create and is a vet.

[AtlPelsFan]

Zo-Hart/Naw
Jrue-Reddick
B.I-Moore
Zion -Meli
Favors-Hayes

Those will be the starters and subs.

End game may be Zo,Jrue,Reddick Bi and Zion

[As I See It]

We will see more of etwaun than jackson. He is a great bench guy that can create and is a vet.

You could be right, but Moore has trade value, is a free agent at the end of season, and can't play a lick of defense. Say what you want about Jackson; he will man up.

[msusousaphone]

Yeah. I could see Moore getting the minutes if here.....I just still feel that big trade coming.

Something like Moore, a young guy or two like Jackson or NAW, and multiple picks for an all-star on an imploding team. It's a bit quieter than I would have thought on the trade rumors, though.

[Pelicanidae]

I mostly think the OP has it right, but I don't see it generally reducing Jaxson's minutes. Zion will probably play some minutes at the 5, here and there, but Jax is already only playing about 20 minutes a night and Favors (aside from being in and out of the lineup a lot) only really plays about 25, depending on fouls and flow. Any current in-game minutes at the 5 tend to get absorbed either by Melli, Okafor, or rare Ingram-at-5 lineups. The return of Zion, where it impacts the C position, will probably just mean an end to extended Melli/Okafor/Ingram-5 moments. He'll eat up those 5-10 minutes a night that usually have us frustrated.

Otherwise yeah, I see Frank's minutes reducing, Moore's minutes possibly shrinking a little as he gets pushed back to the 2 behind Redick and Jrue with Ingram moving back to the 3 (his better position anyway).

Bit of a disagreement in terms of saying it's hard for this team to improve offensively though. This team is 19th in the NBA in ORtg, and a huge part of that comes from the fact that we are

1) 18th in 2ptAs
2) 21st in 2pt%age

Since Christmas, the Pelicans shot profile has been characterised by about 33% of all shots taken being at-rim shots, and 41% being 3 pointers. Zion's return will very probably correlate with an increased number of at-rim attempts, at the expense of a couple of those less favourable 3 pointers per game; this is an advantage someone like Zion has, with his gravity off-ball. Many of our worst 3pt shots come from being stuck, and just taking the shot that's there. Someone like Zion, who constantly roams off-ball and presents a massive threat as a roller/cutter, should free up a little bit of space and reduce the desperation on those attempts.

That will definitely improve our offense: at-rim shots are the best shots in basketball, maybe outside of free throws, when it comes to expected shot-value.

[13 - 3]

I can’t believe we are debating which player is to get shafted so Zion can get playing time. Now if you want to discuss which player gets traded to make room for Zion. Perfectly fine.

God forbid Moore loses playing time. LOL

[Pelifan]

Don't think there's a big trade coming. I think the roster is as is. Doubt we take on long salary so that leaves Bertans, Marvin Williams, Marcus Morris......... anyone else? I don't know. I think we could use another forward but I don't know who that guy is that we could trade Darius Miller, picks and filler for.

Ball: minutes unaffected
Jrue: takes over backup point guard duties from NAW, even split between the 2 positions
Redick: More load management minutes
Moore and Hart: Split the remaining wing minutes, we'll ride the hot hand each game
Ingram: splits minutes between 3 and 4
Zion: 25-30 minutes frequent rest days
Favors: Whatever he can handle.
Jax: normal backup center minutes 10-15

NAW: Lite regular season minutes third string point.
Frank and Kenrich: In case of injury players
Okafor and Meli: matchup specific players or incase of injury

[Pelifan]

I mostly think the OP has it right, but I don't see it generally reducing Jaxson's minutes. Zion will probably play some minutes at the 5, here and there, but Jax is already only playing about 20 minutes a night and Favors (aside from being in and out of the lineup a lot) only really plays about 25, depending on fouls and flow. Any current in-game minutes at the 5 tend to get absorbed either by Melli, Okafor, or rare Ingram-at-5 lineups. The return of Zion, where it impacts the C position, will probably just mean an end to extended Melli/Okafor/Ingram-5 moments. He'll eat up those 5-10 minutes a night that usually have us frustrated.

Otherwise yeah, I see Frank's minutes reducing, Moore's minutes possibly shrinking a little as he gets pushed back to the 2 behind Redick and Jrue with Ingram moving back to the 3 (his better position anyway).

Bit of a disagreement in terms of saying it's hard for this team to improve offensively though. This team is 19th in the NBA in ORtg, and a huge part of that comes from the fact that we are

1) 18th in 2ptAs
2) 21st in 2pt%age

Since Christmas, the Pelicans shot profile has been characterised by about 33% of all shots taken being at-rim shots, and 41% being 3 pointers. Zion's return will very probably correlate with an increased number of at-rim attempts, at the expense of a couple of those less favourable 3 pointers per game; this is an advantage someone like Zion has, with his gravity off-ball. Many of our worst 3pt shots come from being stuck, and just taking the shot that's there. Someone like Zion, who constantly roams off-ball and presents a massive threat as a roller/cutter, should free up a little bit of space and reduce the desperation on those attempts.

That will definitely improve our offense: at-rim shots are the best shots in basketball, maybe outside of free throws, when it comes to expected shot-value.

Jax's season numbers say only 20 minutes a night because of how sparingly he say action early in the season. he's been playing a lot recently. I think Zion small ball will take roughly 5 minutes away from Jax. In playoff mode Jax will play far less. But right now he's gotta cover for Favors' health.

[Pelicanidae]

Jax's season numbers say only 20 minutes a night because of how sparingly he say action early in the season. he's been playing a lot recently. I think Zion small ball will take roughly 5 minutes away from Jax. In playoff mode Jax will play far less. But right now he's gotta cover for Favors' health.

I'm not really sure I agree with that.

Jax has played 41 games so far this year. In 19 of them, he's played under 20 minutes; that's basically half of them. He's only played over 30 minutes 3 times, and the most recent time was December 5th, which isn't particularly recent. In his last 5 games, he's played 19 minutes, 15 minutes, 12 minutes, 18 minutes, and 25 minutes; he's not getting floods of minutes recently. He's only played more than 25 minutes once since December 20th. He hasn't been seeing an increase in his playing time recently. Over his last 10 games, he's played 17.9 minutes a night, which is actually lower than his season average.

I don't see much reason that that would change going forward. 15-20 minutes a night still seems reasonable.

[AusPel]

Alvin Gentry presumably

[pelafanatic]

Thinking on it, I think most of Zion's minutes will come from Moore, Jackson, and NAW. These three combined for 52 minutes yesterday, and a lot of these minutes were in 4 guard lineups. I think over the next few weeks we will see those lineups dissipate because it will no longer be necessary to play Hart at the 4. Instead, Hart and BI will play more 2 and 3 instead of 3 and 4, as Zion slides into that 4 role for 25-30 minutes a game.

I don't really think the big minutes will change much at all. I could see Melli's minutes increasing a bit because he's a nice fit right now with Zion. Maybe Melli and Jax's minutes flip. That way Melli can bang down low with the big boys instead of Zion, like we saw yesterday against Jonas.

[Pelicanidae]

Thinking on it, I think most of Zion's minutes will come from Moore, Jackson, and NAW. These three combined for 52 minutes yesterday, and a lot of these minutes were in 4 guard lineups. I think over the next few weeks we will see those lineups dissipate because it will no longer be necessary to play Hart at the 4. Instead, Hart and BI will play more 2 and 3 instead of 3 and 4, as Zion slides into that 4 role for 25-30 minutes a game.

I don't really think the big minutes will change much at all. I could see Melli's minutes increasing a bit because he's a nice fit right now with Zion. Maybe Melli and Jax's minutes flip. That way Melli can bang down low with the big boys instead of Zion, like we saw yesterday against Jonas.

Melli was not good defensively though. He's not going to be any better at going to ''bang down low with the big boys'' than Zion anyway: he's 35lbs+ lighter, and only 2 inches or so taller. The entire attraction of playing Melli with Zion is for spacing imo; taking Melli out of the paint to add extra room for Zion to operate.

I would absolutely hate it if we saw a drop in minutes for Jax, our happily progressing 19 year old piece-of-the-future, in exchange for 29 year old Melli. That would be a big mistake in terms of development and, I think, in terms of on-court success too. It would relegate one of our only two real centres to playing backup to a guy who should be the small-ball spot minutes guy, putting us at constant size disadvantages: hell, we've been worrying about size disadvantages even when we've had Hayes and Favors going in the same games, due to a lack of size at the 4 without Zion. Pushing Hayes out while he's still playing well and showing good development in order to focus more minutes on an even smaller guy would be extremely weird to me.

[pelafanatic]

Melli was not good defensively though. He's not going to be any better at going to ''bang down low with the big boys'' than Zion anyway: he's 35lbs+ lighter, and only 2 inches or so taller. The entire attraction of playing Melli with Zion is for spacing imo; taking Melli out of the paint to add extra room for Zion to operate.

Yea I was more focused on Zion and Jax's long term health than I am about how good Melli actually is. For me its cost/benefit of having Zion or Jax run down low against guys like Jonas and Gobert compared to a guy like Melli. If Melli gets a little banged up, its really not that big of a deal and you're not so worried about his long term health. There might be one or two nights in a year where this causes you to lose the game, but in the long term it will clearly lead to more wins if Zion and Jax can have sustained health. Either Melli or Jah has to play that role at the moment, and at least Melli can space the floor. This is just one of the issues with having a team filled with so much youth.

On a side note, I think this is the exact reason that Favors was held out yesterday, which is kind of the basis for my hypo. I have no doubt the Pelicans did not want Favors taking repeated shots from Jonas on that back of his. It will be the same thing with Zion. And when I say "big boys", I'm referring to the actually big boys of the NBA like the guys I mentioned. This will not be night in and night out. Against a team like the Spurs, you could probably run a 3 man big rotation of Zion, Fav, and Jax because youre really not worried about Aldridge killing you on the glass.

[msusousaphone]

Interesting take on Favors being held out. I like it.