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Thread: Who is Lonzo Ball?

  1. #1
    Pistol Pete Would Be Proud!! pelicanchamp's Avatar
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    Who is Lonzo Ball?

    The kid is a lightning fast 6’6” pg with a legit3 point shot that can be very streaky but when he’s hot he knocks down a lot of 3s.

    He’s a young athletic player with very good defense and great rebounding. He’s a very good passer.

    He rarely gets to FT line and when he does he shoots 50 percent.

    He looks afraid to drive to the basket and he shoots airballs and looks ridiculous at times. Sometimes his effort on defense is subpar.

    Some call Lonzo a bust. Some say he’s a role player. Some still insist he’s going to be a star. Where do y’all stand? Can Ball improve enough to be a star in this league?

    I still believe he is going to be a star. A unique point guard.


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  2. #2
    He's 22. He's right where he needs to be. I'm not expecting him to be a piece of a Big 3 but I do think he could be the 4th guy that brings all that together.
    Good positive energy.

    But also, yo mama's fat.

  3. #3
    King of Optimism!! Pilot172000's Avatar
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    We just need him to be a comparable point guard. He doesn't have to be Christ Paul or Kyrie Irving. If he can be a Kemba Walker or Kyle Lowry type player, we will be blessed for years to come.

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by Pilot172000 View Post
    We just need him to be a comparable point guard. He doesn't have to be Christ Paul or Kyrie Irving. If he can be a Kemba Walker or Kyle Lowry type player, we will be blessed for years to come.
    Kyle Lowry is better than Kyrie Irving so that's kind of weird ranking.
    Basketball.

  5. #5
    I think he's an NBA calibre player, but a roleplay. Can't be one of the top 3 players on a great team. I think he's unlikely to ever be a top 10 player at his position, but I think there's a path for him to be starter calibre.

    Many of his issues seem to be mental rather than physical, so hopefully they can be overcome but given how mental blocks work, that's not necessarily going to happen.

    He may have a few seasons with artificially inflated assist totals a la Rajon Rondo.

  6. #6
    I think he has all the tools to be an all star in this league.

    He needs more confidence. The kid was LIGHTS OUT at UCLA. Both at the 3 and driving the ball. Zo can drive the ball and be very creative. I think his time in LA with all the pressure and the injuries set him back a few years.

    I don’t like him shooting so many threes. Last night when he was driving and dishing is Zo at his best.

    I think we could see a very different Zo by the end of this year if he can stay healthy.

  7. #7
    Hopefully we get LaMelo too

  8. #8
    I'd love for him to eventually become Marcus Smart with more playmaking. Smart had a similar start to his career where he was forced to be a lead guard but really wasn't comfortable in that role in the half court.

    I think Lonzo has more skill than Smart, but Smart has the intangibles. I think as a complimentary guard, though, its a decent comparison.

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by pelafanatic View Post
    I'd love for him to eventually become Marcus Smart with more playmaking. Smart had a similar start to his career where he was forced to be a lead guard but really wasn't comfortable in that role in the half court.

    I think Lonzo has more skill than Smart, but Smart has the intangibles. I think as a complimentary guard, though, its a decent comparison.
    Depends what you mean by skill, to be honest. Lonzo has better vision than Smart, for sure, but Smart is a far superior defender even compared to Lonzo at his best; Smart is pretty comfortably the best defensive guard in the NBA, imo, and not by a small margin.

  10. #10

  11. #11
    Think it's safe to say we need to re-sign him now

  12. #12
    Talking about skill on the offensive end of course. Lonzo will never be Smart on the defensive end but that doesn't mean he isn't capable of having a similar role. He could very easily be the type of guy who can cover 1-4 in a pinch when he remains focused. Right now I'd feel more comfortable with him covering a 4 than a 1, however, because he's really struggled in working through screens.

    By skill, I meant his ability to handle the ball, make difficult passes, and potentially shoot the 3 ball. Both guys are just complete nightmares inside the 3 point line, but Lonzo at least has the coordination to potentially develop a floater or something along those lines.

    My main point is that, instead of thinking of Lonzo as a lead guard, we need to think of him as a swiss army knife and utilize his skillset. I think putting him in the Smart role, but with a little more freedom in transition, would do just that.

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by pelafanatic View Post
    By skill, I meant his ability to handle the ball, make difficult passes, and potentially shoot the 3 ball. Both guys are just complete nightmares inside the 3 point line, but Lonzo at least has the coordination to potentially develop a floater or something along those lines.

    My main point is that, instead of thinking of Lonzo as a lead guard, we need to think of him as a swiss army knife and utilize his skillset.
    You've got a point here. I've said for a while now, and others have too, that in the half-court Lonzo should be used more like a wing than a lead guard. That's because he doesn't really have incredible half-court PG skills, but he can hit C&S jumpers, and he's a very good secondary passer (that is, the middle man in a hockey assist). It would remove the need for him to be the constant engine of half court offense which is just not a spot he looks very comfortable in. I still think that he's limited in the half court, even in those situations, but at the same time it would maximise his skillset.

    I don't think Lonzo has the co-ordination to develop a high level floater tho, personally

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by pelafanatic View Post
    Talking about skill on the offensive end of course. Lonzo will never be Smart on the defensive end but that doesn't mean he isn't capable of having a similar role. He could very easily be the type of guy who can cover 1-4 in a pinch when he remains focused. Right now I'd feel more comfortable with him covering a 4 than a 1, however, because he's really struggled in working through screens.

    By skill, I meant his ability to handle the ball, make difficult passes, and potentially shoot the 3 ball. Both guys are just complete nightmares inside the 3 point line, but Lonzo at least has the coordination to potentially develop a floater or something along those lines.

    My main point is that, instead of thinking of Lonzo as a lead guard, we need to think of him as a swiss army knife and utilize his skillset. I think putting him in the Smart role, but with a little more freedom in transition, would do just that.
    Once Zion comes back, that means he and Ingram that can take a large share of possessions out of Zo’s hands. As much as I want a lead guard ala Chris Pauling floor general, we can definitely make this work once everyone is healthy. Let’s hope Zo keeps on this trajectory because he has started to have some very bright games.

  15. #15
    I need solid proof that Smart and Lowry are better defenders than Lonzo right now in this moment. I don’t see it. I see emotional intensity passed off too often as fake production.

    To be honest, Lonzo at 22 is where Kyle Lowry finally made it to at about age 25. I could argue the trajectory of the league and how prominent 3 & D is becoming has forced Lonzo to be ahead of Kyle at the same age.

    If you truly understand the concept of 3&D and how that’s the direction of all that matters around a superstar in championship basketball (I’m not talking your great 11th seed scoring point guards out here going no where), you appreciate Lonzo and what he’s doing more and more. I just flat out think he’s smarter than a lot of players. on the floor. He’s only 22.’Wait until you can’t ignore the fact that he’s a grown man in the league playing against kids...like what Lowry gets to enjoy now.

    That’s who Lonzo is to me.

  16. #16
    That's a good take.

  17. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by Wowowowow View Post
    I need solid proof that Smart and Lowry are better defenders than Lonzo right now in this moment. I don’t see it. I see emotional intensity passed off too often as fake production.
    I mean, it's one of those things that just so obviously pops when you watch Smart play that I can't really see how you'd miss it when watching the Celtics.

    That said, if you do want some numbers, in order to avoid the ''eye-test'' dispute, here are some from this season:

    D-PIPM:
    Lonzo: -0.16
    Smart: +0.16

    DRPM:
    Lonzo: -1.09
    Smart: 1.27

    Just for like, the absolute basics, not even diving into talent grades or anything, just a super simple bit of evidence that Smart has more defensive impact than Lonzo does, as of this season.

  18. #18
    THINK Contributor redrum's Avatar
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    You guys are saying a lot of different things,

    Lonzo is 22 he can only get better......but what if he doesn't. This is still the guy other teams leave open and encourage to take 3's.
    This is still the player who can't shoot free throws hence making it hard to play him late in games, especially in a playoff environment.

    Lonzo is a point guard who is not very effective in the half court, refuses to drive the lane, and there are questions about his effort on D.
    I can see why the thread is called who is Lonzo.

    It has been said that he COULD??? compare with the likes of Kyle Lowry or Kemba, Sure, maybe if EVERYTHING breaks perfectly for Lonzo, but probably not.

    Then comes the big issue, what does Lonzo (and family) think his worth is?
    You can't pay top dollar for a player described in this thread as not good enough to be part of a big 3.
    You cannot, as a small market team, gamble and give a big contract to such a flawed player in the hope that he improves.
    I truly hope you guys are right about how good he will be, but I wouldn't pay him unless I was 95% sure he would become that.
    As of now he is trade bait for me, let him TRY to become an all-star elsewhere, small markets need sure things.
    It's that the Hornets unashamedly quit so quickly in Game 4 after fans in New Orleans showed up this season with greater regularity than the team could have ever dreamed, shaming misinformed know-it-alls like me who kept telling you that local residents couldn't possibly invest their time and money into something as trivial as rooting for the local basketball team while still recovering from the devastation of Hurricane Katrina. - Mark Stien ESPN

  19. #19
    Basically agree with redrum here

  20. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by Pelicanidae View Post
    I mean, it's one of those things that just so obviously pops when you watch Smart play that I can't really see how you'd miss it when watching the Celtics.

    That said, if you do want some numbers, in order to avoid the ''eye-test'' dispute, here are some from this season:

    D-PIPM:
    Lonzo: -0.16
    Smart: +0.16

    DRPM:
    Lonzo: -1.09
    Smart: 1.27

    Just for like, the absolute basics, not even diving into talent grades or anything, just a super simple bit of evidence that Smart has more defensive impact than Lonzo does, as of this season.
    Advanced stats are not the end all be all. Too many variables come into play...especially on the defensive end as a perimeter player where a interior defender is needed.

    But let’s say I was going that route in analytics. I could argue that Smarts defensive rating his last 10 games is higher than Lonzos last 10 of about 10 points. I could argue that since Favors has came back Lonzo has had 2 sub 90 defensive rating games in a row. Smart hasn’t done that at all this season nor did he do it once last season. The definition of good Defense is consistency if you break it down.

    And if I were to go after eye test, intensity in my opinion (may be yours) is not the end all be all. Fighting around pick and rolls is important. But having interior security is even more important.

    Let’s say Smart is a better defender. The gap is not at the level to brag about because if it was Marcus would be Indiana Pacers Ron Artest and that he is not,

  21. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by Wowowowow View Post
    Advanced stats are not the end all be all. Too many variables come into play...especially on the defensive end as a perimeter player where a interior defender is needed.

    But let’s say I was going that route in analytics. I could argue that Smarts defensive rating his last 10 games is higher than Lonzos last 10 of about 10 points. I could argue that since Favors has came back Lonzo has had 2 sub 90 defensive rating games in a row
    I'm not trying to be mean here, but trying to argue against PIPM numbers by using defensive rating is... kind of a bad idea. Defensive rating is a decent thing to look at, no question, but it's a quick-and-dirty evaluation; DRtg numbers are fairly basic evaluations and they leave a lot out. For example, Jrue Holiday has never had a DRtg under 107 while a member of the Pelicans, but anyone who has watched the games, tracked his deflections, his DRPM, his DPIPM, etc, knows that he's one of the best defensive guards in the NBA. DPIPM, by comparison, is a much more sophisticated metric.

    It's still not perfect, as defense is notoriously difficult to capture analytically (largely because the best defensive possessions often end with absolutely nothing happening: the player being guarded isn't able to make a pass, or shoot, at all) but as far as analytics goes PIPM and RPM >>>>>> Raw ORtg and DRtg.

    If you want yet another metric that shows Smart > Lonzo on defense, maybe OFG%? Opponents shoot 2.4% better than their averages with Lonzo as their primary defender, a number which rises to 5.8% higher than their averages within 6 feet of the rim. For comparison, opponents shoot 8.1% worse than their averages with Smart as primary defender, including 1.3% worse within 6 feet of the rim.

    Quote Originally Posted by Wowowowow View Post
    And if I were to go after eye test, intensity in my opinion (may be yours) is not the end all be all. Fighting around pick and rolls is important. But having interior security is even more important.

    Let’s say Smart is a better defender. The gap is not at the level to brag about because if it was Marcus would be Indiana Pacers Ron Artest and that he is not,
    Nobody denies that having interior security is more important than perimeter defense. In the thread about Firing Gentry, I explained why that is in excruciating detail; if you can only defend one spot on the court, the rim should be it. But the issue is that Lonzo isn't a particularly gifted interior defender compared to Smart either. Smart is one of only a handful of guards I would trust to defend a legitimate C in the paint.

    Yes, let's say that Smart is a better defender. Because he is one, pretty clearly.
    Last edited by Pelicanidae; 12-31-2019 at 03:05 PM.

  22. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pelicanidae View Post
    Basically agree with redrum here
    I also agree. We see glimpses of what he could be but he either doesn’t stay healthy or doesn’t stay consistent. If he could play close to the guy we had against the rockets, we’d never let him go.

  23. #23
    I think what makes Lonzo so intriguing to me is that he is capable of so much better. The biggest thing that stands out to me is what Redrum pointed out- he is still not very good in the half court. If he is going to make it as the lead guard, he needs to improve drastically there.

    Even though his 3 point shooting is streaky at best, he has definitely improved and it will go a long way in opening up drives for him. He just needs to pick and choose his moments better.

    Intriguing as all hell to me, but leaves a lot to be desired at the moment.

  24. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by redrum View Post
    You guys are saying a lot of different things,

    Lonzo is 22 he can only get better......but what if he doesn't. This is still the guy other teams leave open and encourage to take 3's.
    This is still the player who can't shoot free throws hence making it hard to play him late in games, especially in a playoff environment.

    Lonzo is a point guard who is not very effective in the half court, refuses to drive the lane, and there are questions about his effort on D.
    I can see why the thread is called who is Lonzo.

    It has been said that he COULD??? compare with the likes of Kyle Lowry or Kemba, Sure, maybe if EVERYTHING breaks perfectly for Lonzo, but probably not.

    Then comes the big issue, what does Lonzo (and family) think his worth is?
    You can't pay top dollar for a player described in this thread as not good enough to be part of a big 3.
    You cannot, as a small market team, gamble and give a big contract to such a flawed player in the hope that he improves.
    I truly hope you guys are right about how good he will be, but I wouldn't pay him unless I was 95% sure he would become that.
    As of now he is trade bait for me, let him TRY to become an all-star elsewhere, small markets need sure things.
    Here’s the thing. All those questions you have are the same questions a Kyle Lowry had. And Kyle had them all the way until he was 24-25 years old. This is just de ja vu of history just repeating itself. The reason I lean on the side of Lonzo actually improving because 1. He’s 22 and in one season after changing his jumpshot (which shows proof of a gym rat) is shooting 36%. Are y’all really bragging about Kyle Lowry? He shot sub 30% from 3 for 5 straight seasons! 2. Hes 6-6 and actually has a gift for passing.

    Face the facts. Break the percentages down. Right now, Lonzo is a better shooter than them. Teams leave him open right now because just like how the tag of being a poor defender this year can roar in the mainstream hot take echo chamber, so can his “bad shooting”. He’s officially a 36% shooter and if you break a player down...he’s rising. Pretty much 40% 3 point shooter this last stretch of analytical games.

    But more than anything...It’s about what your expectations are of this franchise built around it’s current corner pieces.

    Kyle Lowry was just “Kyle Lowry” before a man from San Diego State saves his “winner” career. Why? Because that’s all that matters.

    NBA basketball - if you are not THE STAR - is about how well you fit around a star.

    Then you go to the next real questions?

    Can the guy play defense?

    Then Can the guy shoot threes?

    Offensive gravity and great slashing ability to score. What about Derek Fishers, Mario Chalmers?

    There’s more than one way to skin a cat.

  25. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by Pelicanidae View Post
    I'm not trying to be mean here, but trying to argue against PIPM numbers by using defensive rating is... kind of a bad idea. Defensive rating is a decent thing to look at, no question, but it's a quick-and-dirty evaluation; DRtg numbers are fairly basic evaluations and they leave a lot out. For example, Jrue Holiday has never had a DRtg under 107 while a member of the Pelicans, but anyone who has watched the games, tracked his deflections, his DRPM, his DPIPM, etc, knows that he's one of the best defensive guards in the NBA. DPIPM, by comparison, is a much more sophisticated metric.
    First I want to say this. I don’t take anything personal. If you have a point I’m never going to take it as mean. We are passionate about winning.

    Now, the point I was making is really the key into your statement about defensive plays usually end no where. That’s how I feel about analytics in general. It’s not the end all be all and it’s mostly an individual stare down to shape a group ending result. It doesn’t always work that way. I mentioned defensive rating with the mental note of knowing how silly I looked inserting that marshmallow bullet into the gun.

    Marcus Smart can have plus here and pluses there but he’s never won anything. And if Kemba or Tatum aren’t superstars to lead them past other superstars...no one will care about Marcus smarts bpm. I’m all about what it takes for this team to achieve the ultimate goal: championships. Defensively, more than offensively to me, is about the team. Show me a great defender and I’ll say show me his teammates.

    The equation for me at least is building a championship winner. That’s all I care about. Lonzo improving his 3 and having facilitating gifts for me is all I’m paying attention to now that I know he’s not my lead superstar.

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