29th December - New Orleans Pelicans VS Houston Rockets - 10-23

[Pelicanidae]

With a surprisingly dominant win over the Indiana Pacers last night, the Pelicans finally have double digit wins. 10! A whole 10 wins. Who'd'a thunk it? Of course, part of that was due to the Pacers shooting horrifically badly even on wide open shots that our defense had nothing to do with, and they were missing both Brogdon and Oladipo, but still. A win is a win, especially over a team that had been pretty good recently.

Speaking of ''pretty good recently'', the Pelicans have now won 4 of their last 5 games, including against some good teams. The Pacers were 21-11, the Nuggets were 21-8. Those are good teams. Both solid playoff teams, and Denver will probably finish with a top 3 seed in the West. So good wins to get, especially with Zion still waiting in the wings to return. As for injuries on the other side, Capela missed last game due to an ankle complaint: he may not play tonight either, which would be a big help for us.

Back in the @SmoothieKingCtr for another #PelicansGameday!!

⏰: 7pm
📺: @FOXSportsNOLA
🎙: @ESPNRadioNOLA 100.3 FM
📱: Follow along on the Pelicans app pic.twitter.com/aZej4wpkuu

— New Orleans Pelicans (@PelicansNBA) December 29, 2019

So tonight, on the second night of a back to back, we face the Houston Rockets, who are also on the second night of a back to back. I don't think that I need to really analyse the Rockets too much, we all kind of know how they play at this point, but some key salient numbers include these: they're 22-10, 2nd in the league in ORtg, 16th in DRtg. They're 1st in 3PAs and FTAs by a fair margin. Top 10 in rebounds, steals, and fouls: top 10 in all 4 of the Four Offensive Factors.

Recently the Rockets haven't been quite as dominant as they'd probably like (though they've still been winning, mostly) as they've barely eked out a win over San Antonio, took a 12 point loss to Golden State, and struggled hard for a win over the Clippers. They've only surpassed 115 points twice in their last 7 games, despite averaging 119 points per game on the season.

Part of this is just reality: sometimes you have a few low scoring games. It happens, it's no big deal. But another part of it is that teams are realising something very vital about the Houston offense (and this was exploited dramatically by the Warriors): a lot of the time, you can just ignore Westbrook.


Hopefully we manage to exploit the flaws in Houston's defense and defend smartly enough to at least make this a contest. This is the sort of game that would be a triumphant win, especially since we don't play again for a few days after this. #WBD

[Pelicanidae]

Clint Capela did not make the trip to New Orleans (heel). Russell Westbrook did make the trip, but won't play tonight (rest).

— Adam Spolane (@AdamSpolane) December 29, 2019

Oh boy

[HartOfaPelican]

Clint Capela did not make the trip to New Orleans (heel). Russell Westbrook did make the trip, but won't play tonight (rest).

— Adam Spolane (@AdamSpolane) December 29, 2019

Oh boy

So we stop Harden and we should theoretically win. Also, the Rockets had a close game last night.

I’m looking for a solid win tonight.

If we can keep this momentum going... can someone say... playoffs.... playoffs!?!?

[Pelicanidae]

Rockets list James Harden QUESTIONABLE for tonight's game in New Orleans with a right toe sprain

— Adam Spolane (@AdamSpolane) December 29, 2019

Possibly no Harden either.

[msusousaphone]

Wow. I was thinking this would be an understandable and acceptable loss with the back to back and everything....but I think we now should be the favorites.

#EXTENDGENTRY

[msusousaphone]

I still will never understand how opponents can shoot above their percentages and it means our defense is trash and then they shoot below their percentages and our D gets no credit. If a defense is playing great, it disrupts the flow and rhythm of the other team....even on wide open shots.

It's increasingly more absurd when the great defensive trend is going in to its seventh game. That's too many games in a row to say it wasn't due to our defense.

The real issue is that improved defense is a direct correlation to good coaching.

[As I See It]

I still will never understand how opponents can shoot above their percentages and it means our defense is trash and then they shoot below their percentages and our D gets no credit.

It's increasingly more absurd when the great defensive trend is going in to its seventh game. That's too many games in a row to say it wasn't due to our defense.

The real issue is that improved defense is a direct correlation to good coaching.

Couldn't agree with you more.

Further, the weak link defensively for most of the recent losing streak was the 'Human Highlight Dunker' who everyone anoints as a soon-to-be Hall of Famer (way too pre-mature). Now that Favors is back, it only accentuates how far that guy has to go before he is merely serviceable enough to make a positive contribution.

Before I get heat for speaking up....I, too, think he will be very good ONE DAY, but I refuse to look at him through rose colored glasses.

[Pelicanidae]

I still will never understand how opponents can shoot above their percentages and it means our defense is trash and then they shoot below their percentages and our D gets no credit.

Watch the video by Seth Partnow I posted in the thread where someone was asking why we shoot so many 3s.

Answer is basically that the best defense on 3pt shots isn't contests, it's forcing the pass. Defending perimeter shots isn't quite the same process as defending interior shots, so perimeter defense isn't predicated on forcing misses in the same way that interior/paint defense is, it's predicated on forcing passes or discouraging shots in the first place.

If you watch last game back, for example, you'll notice we didn't really discourage 3s. They took a perfectly normal number of them, a fair number of which were wide open. They simply couldn't hit them. Similarly, in other games we've had this year (where the defense has been just as good in terms of wide-open-threes allowed) we've had times where opponents seemingly couldn't miss regardless of what we did. In both cases, there's a huge degree of luck.

The fact is that, beyond injuries, bad coaching (which we definitely have had) and feckless play, we've also had a fairly large amount of bad luck so far this year when it comes to open shots, 50/50 balls, and opponent shot-making. That luck is swinging a little bit more our way right now (which it's due to, basically, gotta regress to the mean) and that means we're having some good advantages. It's fun to enjoy, and we are playing better defense, but acting like our D is the only reason that the Pacers shot 21.5% from 3 is clearly not correct. Unless you think we legitimately played the best perimeter defense of all time in that game.

[6warddude]

I still will never understand how opponents can shoot above their percentages and it means our defense is trash and then they shoot below their percentages and our D gets no credit. If a defense is playing great, it disrupts the flow and rhythm of the other team....even on wide open shots.

It's increasingly more absurd when the great defensive trend is going in to its seventh game. That's too many games in a row to say it wasn't due to our defense.

The real issue is that improved defense is a direct correlation to good coaching.

gentry has shorten his rotations and seem like he is pairing the right players together in this run.......its not the 100% pelicans fault that teams are missing 3s or just missing their shots and not adjusting and going inside and punishing hayes for some inside scoring....plus its been said that the coaches simplify the defensive scheme for the players......added that favors being back and you can see the difference in how the team is playing....

stats tell you our defense is bad but the eye test tell you that our defense has improved....i guess you have to pick which side you want to believe...im going with the eye test....go pels...

[carpo]

Got too attack the paint tonight missing Capela, no rim protection. Shut down (as well as possible) Harden on the other end and it's game

[Fedupfan]

They may not have their 3 best players. Must win!

[Fedupfan]

Confirmed! No Westbrook, Harden, and Capella! An L here is unacceptable

[Fedupfan]

Uncle AL better not let Gordon do S**t tonight.

[luckyman]

Uncle AL better not let Gordon do S**t tonight.

Gordon been out and is just returning tonight. Will be on minutes restriction.

Did you know his middle name is Ambrose?

[AusPel]

Today's game is on national TV here in Australia

[AUSSIE_PELICAN]

Got too attack the paint tonight missing Capela, no rim protection. Shut down (as well as possible) Harden on the other end and it's game

They still have Chandler

[AusPel]

Is Lonzo the GOAT 3point shooter?

[Pelicanidae]

They still have Chandler

They're not starting him and Chandler can't play 30+ minutes anymore.

Attack the paint.

[Pelicanidae]

Man, I have no idea if it's my internet or League Pass but this game has frozen about 5 times in the first 5 minutes, it's very disruptive.

[Pelicanidae]

The box score tells me Lonzo is being impressive.

Would be cool if I was allowed to actually see that though

[Pelicanidae]

This is what I'm seeing on my twitter:

I don't think the Pelicans' defense has been terrible so far tonight but the Rockets are making some moonshot 3s. That said, I'm not terribly scared about most of these guys getting to the rim off the dribble so maybe the Pels should crowd them from any distance?

— Mason Ginsberg (@MasonGinsberg) December 30, 2019

Houston is clearly saying "we want Zo to beat us" and Zo is making them pay.

— Andrew Smith写真家 (@DruProductions) December 30, 2019

Lonzo has been fantastic so far tonight with 11 points in 5 1/2 minutes and then took the most predictable and terrible heat check 3 which he missed horribly lmao

— Mason Ginsberg (@MasonGinsberg) December 30, 2019

So what I'm gathering is:

Lonzo's getting wide open 3s because Houston is just letting him take them more often than not, and he's actually making them pay for once, but his shot selection and timing on them still hasn't been that fantastic. At the same time, Houston are making some tough shots despite decent defense. Is this correct?

[SonOfNOLA]

If Lonzo could just step up and play like the #2 pick every game, we would easily be a .500 team with that alone

[Pelicanidae]

Again, my feed of the game is being extremely interrupted so I'm not getting a great sense of the game flow, but between the bits I am seeing and the box score I have to say I'm kind of concerned.

We're playing a Houston team with no Harden, no Westbrook, no Capela, and we shot 58% from the floor and 46% from 3 in that first quarter and we're down 1 point going into the second quarter and we gave up 37. That's not exactly optimal

[AusPel]

This is what I'm seeing on my twitter:

I don't think the Pelicans' defense has been terrible so far tonight but the Rockets are making some moonshot 3s. That said, I'm not terribly scared about most of these guys getting to the rim off the dribble so maybe the Pels should crowd them from any distance?

— Mason Ginsberg (@MasonGinsberg) December 30, 2019

Houston is clearly saying "we want Zo to beat us" and Zo is making them pay.

— Andrew Smith写真家 (@DruProductions) December 30, 2019

Lonzo has been fantastic so far tonight with 11 points in 5 1/2 minutes and then took the most predictable and terrible heat check 3 which he missed horribly lmao

— Mason Ginsberg (@MasonGinsberg) December 30, 2019

So what I'm gathering is:

Lonzo's getting wide open 3s because Houston is just letting him take them more often than not, and he's actually making them pay for once, but his shot selection and timing on them still hasn't been that fantastic. At the same time, Houston are making some tough shots despite decent defense. Is this correct?

Just use a different streaming site if your LP is playing up

[Pelicanidae]

For the past 6 games opponents were missing threes at an unsustainably high rate. Tonight the Rockets are 8-15 in the first quarter.

Variance is a pain

— Shamit Dua (@FearTheBrown) December 30, 2019