NBA DRAFT 2020 DISCUSSION

[Taker597]

Okoro is gone by 13 imo.

Wouldn't draft Nesmith top 20. One of the few guys who I think is legitimately not arguable for a top 20 draft spot.

I saddle my hitch on the bandwagon, but I agree on Nesmith being a reach. A safe reach, tho.

[Pelicanidae]

And i should revise that. Not a salary dump per say, but maybe a guy that has value but on a bad contract. Like Pelican jokingly said Draymond earlier but I honestly would pull the trigger on him and the #2 pick for any collection of non Zion-BI-Jrue players. I know that's not realistic (Draymond's too good) but something in that vein.

I was only half joking when I said Draymond lol

Salary is big and he obviously cannot score to save his life but he's still a very good defender (even if he's not at his peak anymore) and a very good passer who has a history of winning and (I cannot emphasise how much our team needs this) seems to actually care about winning basketball games.

[Funcrusher]

I was only half joking when I said Draymond lol

Salary is big and he obviously cannot score to save his life but he's still a very good defender (even if he's not at his peak anymore) and a very good passer who has a history of winning and (I cannot emphasise how much our team needs this) seems to actually care about winning basketball games.

Seriously. Imagine an actual "culture guy" here, willing to teach the youngings how to play organized ball (on both ends). Really don't want to see Frank & Lonzo back next year playing 30 minutes jacking up shots like they're in a And-1 mixtape. Also why I again advocate for CP.

[Pelicanidae]

Seriously. Imagine an actual "culture guy" here, willing to teach the youngings how to play organized ball (on both ends). Really don't want to see Frank & Lonzo back next year playing 30 minutes jacking up shots like they're in a And-1 mixtape. Also why I again advocate for CP.

Yeah, I absolutely understand the arguments against someone like Draymond: he's clearly not as good now as he was a few years ago and there's still something like 4yrs/$100m left on his deal which is hard to swallow when you know that he's not going to give you much as a scorer or spacer. Then you have to question how effective his elite skills would be without all-time shooters like Curry and Klay around him. There are huge question marks, which is why I'm not actively pushing hard for him or anything.

But yeah this team needs a vocal leader who can really just heat everything up. The whole locker room bar maybe Redick runs cold right now.

[Taker597]

Yeah, I absolutely understand the arguments against someone like Draymond: he's clearly not as good now as he was a few years ago and there's still something like 4yrs/$100m left on his deal which is hard to swallow when you know that he's not going to give you much as a scorer or spacer. Then you have to question how effective his elite skills would be without all-time shooters like Curry and Klay around him. There are huge question marks, which is why I'm not actively pushing hard for him or anything.

But yeah this team needs a vocal leader who can really just heat everything up. The whole locker room bar maybe Redick runs cold right now.

Stiill remember his greatest performance of his career and then he just vanished. 2016 Vs. CLE Game 7.

[Funcrusher]

Yeah, I absolutely understand the arguments against someone like Draymond: he's clearly not as good now as he was a few years ago and there's still something like 4yrs/$100m left on his deal which is hard to swallow when you know that he's not going to give you much as a scorer or spacer. Then you have to question how effective his elite skills would be without all-time shooters like Curry and Klay around him. There are huge question marks, which is why I'm not actively pushing hard for him or anything.

But yeah this team needs a vocal leader who can really just heat everything up. The whole locker room bar maybe Redick runs cold right now.

Honestly I don't know how good it would be but a lineup featuring Zion and Dray at the 4 and the 5 would be for sure interesting, lol. Could definitely see synergy between them on defense, and maybe even offense if things click right. He could probably take over Lonzo's role on offense pretty well, tbh.

[Snarly]

Might as well just draft Tillman who will give you that type of skillset versus getting a short term over the hill overpaid loud mouth that won’t be happy here.

[Pelicanidae]

Might as well just draft Tillman who will give you that type of skillset versus getting a short term over the hill overpaid loud mouth that won’t be happy here.

This is true but given that I have advocated for us taking either Tillman or Tillie at the end of the first or early second by packaging our seconds together to move up, multiple times, I feel like I'm allowed to speculate

[Silverfoxx]

Hayes is gonna go top 5 and he should. Very crafty, has improved a lot through the year, very very high quality pick and roll operator and ball handler, grown massively as a defender, he's a good prospect.

Precious Achiuwa is going to go top 20 but shouldn't. Very good athlete who occasionally has standout plays that show hints of what he maybe can do if he goes to the right development system (which don't tend to be teams that draft in the lottery, most of the time) but is a really poor decision maker and doesn't seem to know what he's doing at least 30% of the time. Very raw in a lot of vital ways.

Jalen Smith I like, but I think he's not great. He's a good defender and rebounder and obviously is a big body, but he's a slow vertical athlete (not much pop off the ground) largely because of a load up time. Pretty good lateral movement which helps him on defense but has very poor hips and turning stability which limits switchability despite that east-west mobility. High hips make lower body strength a concern for post defense. No good figures for his wingspan but rumours are that it's a little under average for centres, which combined with the lack of quick burst makes his rim protection at the next level a little questionable: he is often in the right spot though, tends to make good reads defensively. He's a pretty high IQ defender, gets into passing lanes pretty well, does the help pretty reliably. Problems come in PnR defense though where he he recovers pretty unreliably from drops, and he often just gives up lanes to drivers which is ugly. Gets lost on perimeter D fairly often as well, and he can be so slow at times that it's a problem. Can't defend ballscreens reliably.

Slow decision maker and not a particularly talented passer either out of the post or in the short roll. Really is a reactive passer as opposed to a proactive one, and I get the feeling he'll need set passes within an offense for him at the next level. Poor reads when trying to pass off the dribble, misses a lot of open looks around him; general passing feel is flat bad. If a defense is moving he has no idea how to read that.

Good hands and decent co-ordination, which help make up for the lack of top tier strength or leaping, and he's aggressive as an offensive rebounder as well which I definitely like; the question is if that's going to translate because of that lack of lower body strength and the fact that he wasn't an exceptional finisher in college (was good tho). Mediocre footwork.

Lots of promise as a shooter: release point is pretty low, which isn't optimal, but he has a nice stroke and it looks pretty natural. Saw somewhere that he shot 13/30 on NBA range threes this year, which is low volume but promising since that's about 43%. Has shown encouraging flashes of coming off screens and movement shooting, but they're rare. Still, worth noting.

Overall I think Jalen Smith is a probable NBA player and if he goes somewhere that can really pair him up properly on defense and cover for his flaws, he might even be a real good NBA player but there are enough holes in his game that I think other bigs do better (read: Tillman and Tillie) that mean that I wouldn't pick him as a top 20 pick, and if someone like Tillman was on the board still in the late first round then I'd let Smith drop.

Thanks for the break down man.

[Pelicanidae]

One thing I'd like to hear from other people: what's your draft philosophy?

So when you're going in to evaluate a prospect, you've got a couple of games loaded up, what are you looking for? What's your checklist, or your bingo card that you're taking off, or your general guidelines?

[Snarly]

Build complimentary pieces around Zion. I don’t care about the best talent. I want to use every resource to make sure we put together the very best roster for the kid. At the end of the day whether we succeed or fail, I want to say that we did everything in our power to give him the best possible chance to win as the guy.

If that means 4 spacers on the court, then so be it.

[DaPelFromHell]

With 3 picks in the top 42 we should be able to get some decent pieces from this draft if we keep them. I think we can swing for the fences at 13 with someone like Poku and then possibly move up with those 3 2nd round picks to get a more safe pick late in the 1st. At least that’s what I hope cause I don’t see how we could keep 4 guys from this draft, but the ability to stash some guys late would be ideal like the Brazilian we got this past year. I still wish we would of swung for the fences by taking Bol Bol there though.

An elite 3 point shooter would be my top want for this team and it looks like Poku can shoot it from deep

[Taker597]

With 3 picks in the top 42 we should be able to get some decent pieces from this draft if we keep them. I think we can swing for the fences at 13 with someone like Poku and then possibly move up with those 3 2nd round picks to get a more safe pick late in the 1st. At least that’s what I hope cause I don’t see how we could keep 4 guys from this draft, but the ability to stash some guys late would be ideal like the Brazilian we got this past year. I still wish we would of swung for the fences by taking Bol Bol there though.

An elite 3 point shooter would be my top want for this team and it looks like Poku can shoot it from deep

He really can't tho. He has a potential 3pt shoot, but his current form is mad overrated.

[AusPel]

Poku is basically Bol Bol right?

[Silver Nail]

Poku is basically Bol Bol right?

NO. Poku is a 7 footer, handle of point guard, very young, 19 in December. I have been on him as our pick forever, Hoping he falls to 13 and we can package our seconds to snag Tillie at 29-32 range

[Pelicanidae]

Poku is basically Bol Bol right?

Not quite as good shooting touch, but he has a better handle, much better passing feel, is more mobile laterally, has better team defense instincts, etc

[Pelicanidae]

He really can't tho. He has a potential 3pt shoot, but his current form is mad overrated.

What's exciting about Poku as a shooter is that he was actually a good shooter this year (at least by percentage), has improved basically every year, and also demonstrates surprising efficiency on pull-ups (can't remember the exact number but it's something like 37% I think?)

So while he isn't actually Lillard or anything right now, there's a lot of reason to buy the upside.

[Pelicanidae]

One thing I'd like to hear from other people: what's your draft philosophy?

So when you're going in to evaluate a prospect, you've got a couple of games loaded up, what are you looking for? What's your checklist, or your bingo card that you're taking off, or your general guidelines?

Might as well explain my own just while I'm bored and have nothing to do.

When I go into evaluating any player, I have 6 major criteria that I'm looking for, plus a sort of 7th bonus criteria. This applies to all players of all positions, and I don't consider body type or anything too heavily at this initial point. The 6 things I'm looking for are skills or attributes that I want the players to show: it doesn't have to be fully developed, although of course I appreciate if it is, but there has to be at least the indication that the skill might be there.

The Six Criteria (Plus a 7th bonus one)
1) Self creation off the dribble
2) Shooting
3) Passing/playmaking for others
4) Finishing at the basket
5) Team defense
6) One on one defense
Bonus number 7 that impacts all of those things: feel for the game

For me, in order to be someone that I would draft anywhere, even in the second round, you have to be able to display at least 2 of these traits. Just one isn't good enough. To be first round, I really want 3 of them. To be a top ten pick, 4, and to be an elite prospect, 5.

Now, it's also true that you can have these skills at different levels, and I do take that into account. For example, if you only have 4 skills but you have one of them at truly elite, world's greatest level, then you might well qualify as an elite prospect even if you're technically a skill short.

Take someone like Zion at Duke. He showed self creation off the dribble, the ability to pass and playmake for others, truly cosmically elite finishing at the rim, 1v1 defensive instincts, and had really good feel that showed up in team defense moments. He also showed signs of maybe being a better shooter than Duke truly demonstrated: that's 5 of the 7 criteria, with flashes of the other two (Shooting and team defense). That's why he's an elite prospect.

If you examine someone from this year's draft who is often considered to be going highly, like LaMelo, what you find is that he has truly elite passing/playmaking, and has shown signs that he might be able to self-create off the dribble (good handle) and be a decent team defender. There's also some people who hope he'll be a good shooter in time. On the other hand, he's a disgustingly awful 1v1 defender, can't finish at the rim whatsoever, and those team defensive instincts are only flashes: nothing sustained. So that's 3 or maybe 4 of the 7 attributes for LaMelo: that's arguably a top ten pick, because of how elite the passing skill is, and the fact that this is a weak draft, but he's not a truly elite prospect.

That's my general mindset. Then, I take a look at how I think the body type plays into things, height, athleticism, and speculate about certain skills translating to the NBA.

[As I See It]

The Six Criteria (Plus a 7th bonus one)
1) Self creation off the dribble
2) Shooting
3) Passing/playmaking for others
4) Finishing at the basket
5) Team defense
6) One on one defense
Bonus number 7 that impacts all of those things: feel for the game

# 5 and # 6 are non-negotiable in my eyes. Everything (especially offense in this age of basketball) starts on the defensive end of the court. I also place a premium on locker room demeanor (fit). The last thing I'd want to do is introduce a cancer into my young, impressionable team.

[Pelicanidae]

# 5 and # 6 are non-negotiable in my eyes. Everything (especially offense in this age of basketball) starts on the defensive end of the court. I also place a premium on locker room demeanor (fit). The last thing I'd want to do is introduce a cancer into my young, impressionable team.

Nah, I think you can get away with not being, for example, a good 1v1 defender if you're elite enough in other areas. Steph Curry is a great example of this. All time shooter, self.creator off the dribble, good finisher, etc; sub par one on one defensive guard, but nobody would deny his overall impact.

[Pelicanidae]

And the reason I don't talk about stuff like locker room fit and mentality is that frankly, we don't get that information very often as fans. For GMs that's something to consider because they can talk to coaches and players, but we can't, so I try not to assume stuff.

[As I See It]

Nah, I think you can get away with not being, for example, a good 1v1 defender if you're elite enough in other areas. Steph Curry is a great example of this. All time shooter, self.creator off the dribble, good finisher, etc; sub par one on one defensive guard, but nobody would deny his overall impact.

Nah. if you are constantly taking the ball out of the net defensively, it doesn't matter what your offensive numbers look like. The Pelicans were 4th in points scored this year. How are we doing in the playoffs? Good defense trumps good offense every day of the week with few exceptions.

[Pelicanidae]

Nah. if you are constantly taking the ball out of the net defensively, it doesn't matter what your offensive numbers look like. The Pelicans were 4th in points scored this year. How are we doing in the playoffs? Good defense trumps good offense every day of the week with few exceptions.

Sure, but if you have a player who fits 4 or 5 of those criteria, the odds are that they're going to be valuable enough to offset any 1v1 defensive losses.

Curry was one example, Lillard is another. Doncic is another. Harden is another.

These are guys who are not super talented 1v1 defenders, but who are valuable enough as creators, shooters, etc, to make up for that. They are top ten players who cannot guard individually at a high level, especially across multiple positions. They take weaker or secondary assignments, and have teams the defend around them.

If you have a prospect who you think is going to be a talented shooter, playmaker, creator, etc, then as long as they're at least decent at team defense you can forgive deficiencies in their individual defense.

Similarly, if a player is an incredible playmaker and creator with huge defensive ability, you can forgive a lack of shooting to some extent despite the fact that the league needs spacing more than ever.

[As I See It]

These are guys who are not super talented 1v1 defenders, but who are valuable enough as creators, shooters, etc, to make up for that. They are top ten players who cannot guard individually at a high level, especially across multiple positions. They take weaker or secondary assignments, and have teams the defend around them.

You assume there are players on this team who CAN play defense. Name ANYONE not named Jrue Holiday on this team who you can trust with a 'primary assignment'. I proffer that the second best defender on this team is Kenny 'Hustle', a player with a dubious future in a Pelican uni.

If three or four of your criteria is enough, Jah would be a starter on this team.

[Pelicanidae]

You assume there are players on this team who CAN play defense. Name ANYONE not named Jrue Holiday on this team who you can trust with a 'primary assignment'. I proffer that the second best defender on this team is Kenny 'Hustle', a player with a dubious future in a Pelican uni.

If three or four of your criteria is enough, Jah would be a starter on this team.

You don't draft for the team you have right now. That's absurd. You even say it yourself: Kenny Hustle's future is dubious here, and that's true for half the roster.

Moore, Frank, Favors, Jah, Kenrich, these are all names on this roster that could be gone in free agency this year. Then you have the possibility of trading other players like Lonzo or even Jrue or Redick. This team could look completely different in 12 or 18 months.

If you go into the draft trying to find fit for a team that needs completely restructuring anyway, you're going to make a mistake. It's important to remember that this team isn't going to be a contender next year, or maybe even the year after that: you're designing this team to win chips in 3+ years time. Don't make long term choices (that is, don't draft players who you will have some contractual control on for 7 years) based on short term fit.

Edit: I also want to note that Jah only has 2 of the traits I prioritise. He can create for himself off the dribble and he can finish at the basket. He's a poor defender both individually and as a team guy, he can't shoot, and he's a really poor passer.