NBA DRAFT 2020 DISCUSSION

[Pelicanidae]

Curious to hear examples of guys you think he is similar to coming out of college that were good to great players for the team who drafted them. Because I could find a ton of raw shooting/scoring athletic wings who have defensive upside that do little to nothing for the team that drafted them.

Again, with Okoro, I could see him being a solid role player for some team. But history says it wont be the team who drafts him

lt doesn't really matter because my point wasn't that Okoro would make a good player for the team that drafted him (we've had this discussion before and l'm not really interested in re-treading it, for various reasons). My point was that l disagree with the evaluation that was given of him.

That said, finding a comparison for Okoro is really hard. lf you go on basketball reference and just slam in his sort of stats to find players who had similar statistical seasons (shot at least 60% from 2pt range but under 30% from 3, BPM of at least 6, etc) you mostly get bigs. Some of those bigs are good, or at least project to be good (AD, Okongwu, John Collins, Mo Bamba, for example, all meet these criteria), but none of those are 6'6 like Okoro is. Maybe Otto Porter is the closest?

Of course, just looking at raw statistical profiles out of context doesn't mean much, but it's just interesting to look at.

[MichaelMcNamara]

lt doesn't really matter because my point wasn't that Okoro would make a good player for the team that drafted him (we've had this discussion before and l'm not really interested in re-treading it, for various reasons). My point was that l disagree with the evaluation that was given of him.

That said, finding a comparison for Okoro is really hard. lf you go on basketball reference and just slam in his sort of stats to find players who had similar statistical seasons (shot at least 60% from 2pt range but under 30% from 3, BPM of at least 6, etc) you mostly get bigs. Some of those bigs are good, or at least project to be good (AD, Okongwu, John Collins, Mo Bamba, for example, all meet these criteria), but none of those are 6'6 like Okoro is. Maybe Otto Porter is the closest?

Of course, just looking at raw statistical profiles out of context doesn't mean much, but it's just interesting to look at.

So, you are saying your evaluation is that he could/will become a good NBA player? I agree with that. And I'd also tell Griff not to take him.

I hope we could be his 2nd or 3rd team

[Pelicanidae]

So, you are saying your evaluation is that he could/will become a good NBA player? I agree with that. And I'd also tell Griff not to take him.

I hope we could be his 2nd or 3rd team

l think that Okoro is one of the more team-dependent guys in the draft, to be honest. There are certain teams that l think could do well for his development, and other teams that could hurt him quite badly. Many players are like that in any given year, but l think it's especially true in a year like this where there's a relative lack of legit top tier talent. l do think that there is real potential for Okoro to be a good NBA player, yes.

And that's cool, like l said, my point wasn't that he's going to immediately join a team and be a star, it was only to disagree with the description of him as-given in the post that l was replying to.

[pelafanatic]

If I was a team drafting in the top 3, I really think Anthony Edwards would be the guy I'm most worried about. He's the guy this year that could get you fired if you draft him or fired if you don't. For some reason he gives me shooting guard Anthony Bennett vibes. I'm not sure he knows how to play the game, even though he may be the most explosive player in the draft.

When he walks in the room on day 1, what are you confident that he can do at an average level in the NBA? He's been compared to Oladipo and Eric Gordon, but Oladipo's motor and on ball defense were insane from day 1, and Eric Gordon got to the rim at will (before the injuries). Both players were better shooters than Edwards coming out as well.

If Edwards turns on the motor and keeps it on, he may well be the most talented player in the draft, but I hate the idea of betting on a low motor guy in the top half of the lottery.

[pelafanatic]

Maybe Otto Porter is the closest?

Porter shot 42% from 3 in his final season at Georgetown and is one of the best corner 3 point shooters in the NBA. That was a skill that got Porter on the floor as a rookie and beyond. Okoro doesn't really have an offensive skill right now that can keep him on the floor in the NBA. His rebound rate is also troubling if he's considered a 3. I think he'd be best suited for an extended stint in the G-League next year, but I'm not sure who at the back half of the lottery is in a position to give him that opportunity, especially considering what his ceiling probably is.

How valuable are elite defensive stoppers at this point in the NBA? It seems like they're basically being phased out of the league unless they have skill they can hang their hat on offensively.

[Pelicanidae]

Porter shot 42% from 3 in his final season at Georgetown and is one of the best corner 3 point shooters in the NBA. That was a skill that got Porter on the floor as a rookie and beyond. Okoro doesn't really have an offensive skill right now that can keep him on the floor in the NBA. His rebound rate is also troubling if he's considered a 3. I think he'd be best suited for an extended stint in the G-League next year, but I'm not sure who at the back half of the lottery is in a position to give him that opportunity, especially considering what his ceiling probably is.

How valuable are elite defensive stoppers at this point in the NBA? It seems like they're basically being phased out of the league unless they have skill they can hang their hat on offensively.

l understand that, but Otto Porter's shooting came along. His first season in college, he shot 22.6% from 3 and 70.2% from the FT line: hardly numbers that would have inspired confidence in his long term shooting projection, based on that alone. As a matter of fact, 22.6% from 3 and 70.2% from FT line is arguably a worse shooting year than Okoro had this year; and their 2pt %ages are actually very similar, within 0.04% of each other. Yes, Porter took a huge leap his second year, but based on his freshman year alone, it would have been a risky guess to simply assume he'd become an excellent shooter, let alone so quickly.

ln any case, my point wasn't that Okoro is some Porter clone; he absolutely isn't. He has a better handle and is a better playmaker right now than Porter ever was in college, for example, and you're right that by the time of draft night, Porter had shown far more shooting improvement than Okoro ever has. My point was just that of the group of people who fit Okoro's statistical comparison, Porter is probably the closest, and that's true. Certainly, Porter is a closer comparison than Anthony Davis or John Collins; at least Porter's a perimeter player, for example.

[Pelicanidae]

If I was a team drafting in the top 3, I really think Anthony Edwards would be the guy I'm most worried about. He's the guy this year that could get you fired if you draft him or fired if you don't. For some reason he gives me shooting guard Anthony Bennett vibes. I'm not sure he knows how to play the game, even though he may be the most explosive player in the draft.

When he walks in the room on day 1, what are you confident that he can do at an average level in the NBA? He's been compared to Oladipo and Eric Gordon, but Oladipo's motor and on ball defense were insane from day 1, and Eric Gordon got to the rim at will (before the injuries). Both players were better shooters than Edwards coming out as well.

If Edwards turns on the motor and keeps it on, he may well be the most talented player in the draft, but I hate the idea of betting on a low motor guy in the top half of the lottery.

Anthony Edwards is a very talented cutter, and l think he has a lot of off-ball equity, if he goes to a team that will allow him to fill that role. One of my largest fears for him is that he goes to a team that expects him to be The Guy from day one, on ball, playmaking for the team. While l think he has the potential to fill that role okay-ish, if things go well, l don't think it's the optimal scenario for him.

ln any case, l think the top-3 prospect who gives me the biggest ''oh god this guy might end up being a total bust'' vibes is LaMelo. Some special skills there, and if everything falls right for him, LaMelo could be great, but there are just so many different ways for him to go wrong, from his shooting to his defense, to his effort to his decision making, and that's not even getting to his body and his fear of contact that's just as bad as Lonzo's ever been.

[pelafanatic]

ln any case, l think the top-3 prospect who gives me the biggest ''oh god this guy might end up being a total bust'' vibes is LaMelo. Some special skills there, and if everything falls right for him, LaMelo could be great, but there are just so many different ways for him to go wrong, from his shooting to his defense, to his effort to his decision making, and that's not even getting to his body and his fear of contact that's just as bad as Lonzo's ever been.

I think that's fair, but I see his vision as being so elite that its nearly impossible for him to completely flame out. The guys recently with great-elite vision to come out were Lonzo, Trae Young, Ja, Ben Simmons, Luka. Now obviously those guys, other than Lonzo, just have next level games at this point, but his ability to pass will allow him to at the very least stay on the floor while he figures the other stuff out. I think its just an extremely flexible skill; even when everything else fails such as in the case of early Rubio, he still remained extremely serviceable.

Detroit is absolute worst case scenario for Edwards IMO from a fit standpoint. New York as well because their spacing and passing will be atrocious.

[Pelicanidae]

I think that's fair, but I see his vision as being so elite that its nearly impossible for him to completely flame out. The guys recently with great-elite vision to come out were Lonzo, Trae Young, Ja, Ben Simmons, Luka. Now obviously those guys, other than Lonzo, just have next level games at this point, but his ability to pass will allow him to at the very least stay on the floor while he figures the other stuff out. I think its just an extremely flexible skill; even when everything else fails such as in the case of early Rubio, he still remained extremely serviceable.

Detroit is absolute worst case scenario for Edwards IMO from a fit standpoint. New York as well because their spacing and passing will be atrocious.

The issue l think is that those other players are either less impactful than their raw stats might appear, or they have other elite skills as well. Take Trae, for example, who is an elite passer but gives up so much on the other end that he's actually a more average than not player overall, or Ben Simmons who is an elite defender and strong driver to add to his passing game that boosts his value. Of course you could be right, no question, but l just worry about how far his passing alone can take LaMelo when it's all he has right now. At least Lonzo played defense.

Detroit is a bad fit for Antman, l agree. l actually think a perfect spot for him would be Golden State; they have a culture there, Curry coming back will mean that he's never going to be expected to take primary creation duties on day one, and surrounding him with shooters will help open up his game. That said, while Golden State may be a great fit for him, l don't think he's a perfect fit for them. They could do with a big, and l think Okongwu may well end up being their selection.

[MichaelMcNamara]

Here's my broader question -- Was Otto Porter a success as a draft pick?

He had a few seasons that were slightly above replacement level player, then got massively overpaid and had to be given away. Knowing what you know now, was Porter a success for the team who drafted him?

[pelafanatic]

The issue l think is that those other players are either less impactful than their raw stats might appear, or they have other elite skills as well. Take Trae, for example, who is an elite passer but gives up so much on the other end that he's actually a more average than not player overall

This probably isn’t the thread for this, or maybe it is because it establishes how we view certain prospects and value certain skill sets, but if you think Traes defense is a near inverse of his offense value wise, I can’t agree with that. Without even getting into how flawed defensive metrics are, offense is so much more valuable in today’s game and defense is such a team dependent thing.

[Biasvasospasm]

I really like Kira Lewis. He is a blur and can shoot, both off-the-dribble and and on the catch. I think he'd add a totally different dimension to our backcourt with his speed and off-the-dribble shooting, as he puts on weight and gets stronger could see him developing into an above average starting caliber point guard. Reminds me of young Darren Collison, but he is way younger than Collison was entering the draft (and is listed several inches taller) so I think there is still significant upside.

[Pelicanidae]

This probably isn’t the thread for this, or maybe it is because it establishes how we view certain prospects and value certain skill sets, but if you think Traes defense is a near inverse of his offense value wise, I can’t agree with that. Without even getting into how flawed defensive metrics are, offense is so much more valuable in today’s game and defense is such a team dependent thing.

l know that using a single number stat really isn't a perfect illustration of anything, but if you look at Trae's PlPM, it shows kind of what l mean.

Trae is a +4.9 in his Offensive PIPM
He's a -3.6 in his Defensive PIPM

Which results in a +1.3 PIPM overall. Other players who have a total PIPM around that mark include Kris Dunn, Clint Capela, Danny Green, Larry Nance, Tobias Harris. These are all good players, but they're not superstars. Trae's result is the same. His offensive impact is very important (+4.9 is actually 3rd in the NBA in raw OPIPM) but his defensive negatives are so dramatic that PIPM views him as a ''pretty good'' player.

Is this totally accurate? Well, maybe not entirely, but l think it demonstrates the point relatively well. Of course you're right that defense is so team dependent as well; Trae gets a lot of his minutes with John Collins, who is a very good player also but is not a great defender and whose limitations on that end probably don't help Trae's overall numbers, for example.

[Pelicanidae]

Here's my broader question -- Was Otto Porter a success as a draft pick?

He had a few seasons that were slightly above replacement level player, then got massively overpaid and had to be given away. Knowing what you know now, was Porter a success for the team who drafted him?

No, but again, that was never my point with regards to the Okoro discussion.

[MichaelMcNamara]

No, but again, that was never my point with regards to the Okoro discussion.

Never said it was. Just engaging in a broader discussion, zoomed 30000 feet out

I feel like most draft discussions center around who the player could become. But it rarely is about what value they will bring to the team that drafts them. You look at picks 1-20 in an average draft and its only 3-4 guys on average who actually bring above replacement level value for the team that drafts them.

I just think there are so many discussions to have around that, which are almost never had

[pelafanatic]

Which results in a +1.3 PIPM overall. Other players who have a total PIPM around that mark include Kris Dunn, Clint Capela, Danny Green, Larry Nance, Tobias Harris. These are all good players, but they're not superstars. Trae's result is the same. His offensive impact is very important (+4.9 is actually 3rd in the NBA in raw OPIPM) but his defensive negatives are so dramatic that PIPM views him as a ''pretty good'' player.

I'll concede that Trae is not a good defender, but that doesn't matter as much for a point guard if he's surrounded by adequate defenders. The Warriors were able to have a top defensive team for years with Steph who was a bad defender but had extremely quick hands, similar to Trae. For most of the season, Trae was playing surrounded by Kevin Huerter, 2 rookies, and John Collins. Most guards would struggle to have a positive DPIPM in that scenario. Beal is in a pretty similar situation in Washington.

Even the biggest analytics guys would agree that defensive metrics really do not matter. Duncan and Hollinger had a podcast on it recently, I believe.

[pelafanatic]

I feel like most draft discussions center around who the player could become. But it rarely is about what value they will bring to the team that drafts them. You look at picks 1-20 in an average draft and its only 3-4 guys on average who actually bring above replacement level value for the team that drafts them.

This is starting to get into the viability of the Dell Demps method, if you make the deals for the right guys. I think where Demps went wrong with his young vets method is that, other than Jrue, he was targeting players who had already hit their peak. I think Griff has already shown a willingness to target players who he believes have untapped potential instead of trading for guys who have peaked and fit a need.

[MichaelMcNamara]

This is starting to get into the viability of the Dell Demps method, if you make the deals for the right guys. I think where Demps went wrong with his young vets method is that, other than Jrue, he was targeting players who had already hit their peak. I think Griff has already shown a willingness to target players who he believes have untapped potential instead of trading for guys who have peaked and fit a need.

I dont think it is as simple as that and there being 2 or 3 draft philosophies. Not to mention I dont think NAW fits the 'untapped potential' profile at all.

What you see from studying the past 25-30 drafts is that there is nothing close to a "right way" or a "better way"... nor is there accurate calculations for what makes a "successful" draft pick. The issue, to me, seems to be the second contract and how that comes into play when a guy is solid or good but not great. It creates this dynamic, even before that decision date hits, that makes it so unlikely that a guy will stay and develop into a role with the team that actually drafts them. Combine that with needs of teams constantly changing due to roster turnover along with a players desire to see if he can be more than a role player if given the right opportunity, and all of it is a recipe for so few guys staying with the team who drafts them and actually providing value for that team

[pelafanatic]

I dont think it is as simple as that and there being 2 or 3 draft philosophies. Not to mention I dont think NAW fits the 'untapped potential' profile at all.

I should've been more clear. I was referring to the players that Griff was targeting through free agency and trade. I think he was enamored with the upside of Ingram and liked the upside with Ball as well. He also consistently spoke about the untapped offensive upside of Favors as well, although we never truly saw it.

So my statement was that Griff traded for the guys about to start their second contract that had major upside but hadn't exactly put it all together, whereas Demps targeted guys like Ryno, RoLo, Asik, who were decent role players but had no potential to be more than that. Jrue was an exception, and I'll die on the hill that Reke from a strictly basketball perspective was a good move, although it seems like we didn't really do our homework when it came to his off the court stuff.

[pelafanatic]

Does anyone here have an opinion on Jaden McDaniels? Players with his size and ability to put the ball on the floor just do not fall outside of the lottery, specifically a freshman. I know he's extremely lean, but I just get the feeling that if he was coming out of Duke or Kentucky, he'd be viewed differently.

He shot 34% from 3 as a freshman, but was 83rd% in catch and shoot situations which is outstanding, specifically for a guy who is 6'10 with a 7 foot wingspan.

I just don't see how this guy actually falls out of the lottery unless there's off the court stuff that we're just not privy to.

[Nola3]

Does anyone here have an opinion on Jaden McDaniels? Players with his size and ability to put the ball on the floor just do not fall outside of the lottery, specifically a freshman. I know he's extremely lean, but I just get the feeling that if he was coming out of Duke or Kentucky, he'd be viewed differently.

He shot 34% from 3 as a freshman, but was 83rd% in catch and shoot situations which is outstanding, specifically for a guy who is 6'10 with a 7 foot wingspan.

I just don't see how this guy actually falls out of the lottery unless there's off the court stuff that we're just not privy to.

General consensus seems to be that he's got all the measurables of a lottery pick but he's, like, just not good at basketball. Haven't gone too deep on my draft research yet, but on the surface he's the exact type of player that I want no part of because those prospects are so frustrating (RIP Julian Wright).

[ml wave]

I should've been more clear. I was referring to the players that Griff was targeting through free agency and trade. I think he was enamored with the upside of Ingram and liked the upside with Ball as well. He also consistently spoke about the untapped offensive upside of Favors as well, although we never truly saw it.

So my statement was that Griff traded for the guys about to start their second contract that had major upside but hadn't exactly put it all together, whereas Demps targeted guys like Ryno, RoLo, Asik, who were decent role players but had no potential to be more than that. Jrue was an exception, and I'll die on the hill that Reke from a strictly basketball perspective was a good move, although it seems like we didn't really do our homework when it came to his off the court stuff.

Griff was also trading basically the single biggest asset that's been traded in the league since what, Kareem? Meanwhile, Demps was out there trading Greivis Vazquez and whatnot.

[tdcreator]

I’m starting to be of the opinion of trading down. Get more picks and send all or most overseas. Start preparing these guys for bench roles because we are going to quickly become top heavy. Riller would be a guy that could come in off the bench sooner rather than later then a guy like Stanley could be or next year Dee Dee.

[pelafanatic]

Griff was also trading basically the single biggest asset that's been traded in the league since what, Kareem? Meanwhile, Demps was out there trading Greivis Vazquez and whatnot.

Demps had a number of assets to make deals and failed to really find anyone of value after Jrue until Boogie. Guys like Oladipo, Khris Middleton, Spencer Dinwiddie, Eric Bledsoe, and so on hit the trade market at some point or another and we failed to properly scout. Demps was very talented at finding fringe guys, but really struggled with finding a 3rd to pair with Jrue and AD.

Demps had his chances to trade Ryno, Gordon, Tyreke, RoLo, Aminu, Rivers to pick up movable assets and never had the stones to actually pull the trigger. I think the young vets method is fine and thats not where he failed. Where he failed was finding young vets who still had major upside, and not just young vets that fit around AD.

[pelafanatic]

I’m starting to be of the opinion of trading down. Get more picks and send all or most overseas. Start preparing these guys for bench roles because we are going to quickly become top heavy. Riller would be a guy that could come in off the bench sooner rather than later then a guy like Stanley could be or next year Dee Dee.

In all honesty this is the exact opposite of what I think we should do. I think Griff should do whatever it takes within reason to get the guy he feels has the most upside in the draft. I'm still leaning towards that being RJ Hampton. I think if everything breaks right for him, he could be the elite scorer at the 2 that the Pels need between Zo and BI, and a guy who can take some of the halfcourt ball handling duties from Zo. and even if he never amounts to anything, he'll hold trade value for a longer period than most prospects in this draft because of his athleticism and the fact that there's simply not that much tape on him yet.