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Dae, is there anyone you would give up an asset to move up to draft? If Hayes and/or Vassel farther than six I am starting to think about it. Of course it depends not he price, but in this draft I do not think it would cost that much.Originally Posted by Pelicanidae
Nah, I don't think so. At least no high value assets. Like, for example, there's nobody that I'd move Jrue to acquire.
Would I move, say, Lonzo in a deal that involved a higher pick? Maybe, depends on the deal, but that would be something I'd be more interested in.
Basketball.
People on Twitter: Poku has an interesting skillset but he's so skinny, he will never have the body needed for NBA play
Draft year Valanciunas and Bertans lol wow pic.twitter.com/Rf8ifxSW29
— The Halfcourt Press (@THalfCourtPress) September 21, 2020
Tyler Herro lending more credence to my continued support of Tyrese Maxey.
If there's a player from Kentucky who looks kind of good but limited and everyone is mocking them in the mid-teens, probably best to bump them up 5 or 6 spots on your draft board. Kentucky just masks so much quality.
Kentucky players drafted between 11 and 19 over the last 10 years: Bam Adebayo, Devin Booker, Tyler Herro, PJ Washington, Eric Bledsoe, Shai Gilgeous Alexander
In any redraft of those years, nobody would deny those players should be top ten picks. PJ, I guess, still has time to prove it but he was really good this year just most people don't watch the Hornets.
How Kentucky players in the last 10 years were no good?
Maxey shot 29.2% from the 3. The dude couldn't hit the ocean standing on an island in the middle of one. We need shooters around this team. Without shooters teams will pack the paint and suffocate Zion.
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Is the only thing Maxey does is shoot on offense? Does he show ability to create and get to the foul line? Because that’s always valuable.
Maxey is an interesting case study. His stroke is fine, he hits his free throws at a high clip and was even a good 3pt shooter his sophomore and junior seasons of HS, percentage wise. But his senior season and freshman year of college, his percentages were way down. If FT% is the better predictor, which most say it is, then this kid will become a plus shooter in the league. And yes, he can create his own shot and get into the lane and either finish or get to the line.
I watched their first game of the year against MSU, and he was the best player on the court. Was a dog, and wanted the ball late - hit the big shot. But as the season wore on, he became the 3rd guard on that team and Cal leaned on Quickley - who is two years older. Not saying it will be as drastic as it was with other guards from Kentucky, but I have zero doubt that Maxey will be a better pro player than he was college player
@mcnamara247
Tons, my point isn't ''all Kentucky players are good'' it's that if a player was good pre-college but didn't show the range of skills that you would need to secure them a top 10 place in college, there's some high likelihood that at least part of that was Kentucky's system and that you should trust the pre-college sample and your evaluation.
Simply put: not saying all Kentucky players are good, but if a Kentucky player is ''good but you're not quite sure'', you should probably take the bet.
He does show that ability. He was playing offball for much of the season with Ashton Hagans (an example of Calipari again not really catering to his personnel) which was not a great fit for him, but he did well when he was given the chance and he showed much higher level passing pre-college. His FTr of .332 is not great but is certainly not terrible either.
If you had to choose, would you go Maxley or Lewis for the Pelicans late lottery core piece(if that is even a thing)?
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I guess I would go Lewis because I see a world where I can build his trade value. I think Maxey is like a Josh Hart, maybe, in two years. Sure, a team will want me to include him in the trade for their disgruntled player, but he wont have a ton of value. Conversley, there is a world where Lewis could put up some numbers and get teams excited about his upside. Same reason I would probably take a shot on RJ Hampton too. Remember, it is very unlikely that this guy will be on this team for his 2nd contract. You are likely drafting this guy to eventually trade him, not to be a core piece
Lamelo looking like a soft lock at 1.
Timberwolves... Would win a worthless lottery draft.
I think it'd be more fruitful to post their actual draft day measurements...instead of still photos, which can be highly misleading.
I mean we should be experts at knowing that with a plyer like Zion on the team.
Bertans took years before he came over and Jonas was 240 during his draft measurements and didn’t come over immediately either. Better frame than Poku. That picture at an angle is deceiving.
You're making the error of comparing Jonas at draft time to Poku at draft time. Jonas was 240 during his draft measurements... at which point he was 20 years old.
Poku is still 18: he won't be 20 until the second year of his NBA deal. He's pretty much the youngest you can legally be in this draft. Because of how Olympiacos B used him this year (which is actually a fascinating story) the vast majority of footage you may have seen him in comes from when he was 17 years old.
The point of the comparison is not to say ''Poku is skinny, Jonas was skinny, therefore Poku will end up being built like Jonas'', the point is to say that you can't look at a player when they're extremely early in their physical development and conclude that they will never reach an acceptable weight.
While it's true that Jonas has some build ''advantages'' over Poku for weight gain (Jonas' shoulders were much wider, for example, which helps imply a potential for a wider frame) it's also true that Poku is taller and lengthier than Jonas and therefore similar weight over the same frame would look very different anyway.
You’re wrong again. Jonas was 18 when he was measured and and barely 19 was drafted. He didn’t go to the NBA immediately after he was drafted. Poku is gonna be 19 right after he get drafted at 220 with a terrible frame.
You're right, I forgot that Jonas didn't make the leap to the NBA immediately. He was 20 when he debuted, my mistake.
In any case, it doesn't matter because I will repeat that the point isn't that Jonas was skinny therefore Poku has no frame worries. The point is that plenty of players are sub-optimal in stature when drafted and gain the weight later, especially when they're particularly young or particularly inexperienced when drafted.
It's worth noting that you're hyper-fixating on Jonas in specific while missing the overall point. Not only have you decided to just not mention Bertans at all who was listed at a very similar physical profile to Poku at draft time (6'10, 209lbs according to NBADraft.net, whereas Poku is about 7'0, with his weight floating between 200 and 210 depending on where you look), but you're also not really considering other prospects who had this absurd thinness to them.
For example, Giannis who was listed at about 6'10, 195lbs around draft time and now measures in at 6'11, 240lbs. Now, again, does Giannis have a better frame than Pokusevski? Sure he does, but it's not like Pokusevski has the worst frame in history: he's not Bol Bol for God's sake. Expecting Poku to, realistically, get up around 220, 225lbs in a couple of years is not an some kind of pipe-dream imo.
Dropping some thoughts here on guys who will probably be available in the second round since we have multiple second round picks. We probably won't use all of them, and whoever we do end up drafting in the 2nd round will probably end up being G Leagued or left overseas for a while (I think it's doubtful we draft someone in the second round and then immediately drop them into the rotation), but still, worth saying. Not a huge amount of writing on each guy here, just some Cliffs Notes.
Note that this was inspired by the September 22nd episode of the Prep2Pro podcast, where they're talking about 2nd round guys they like.
Malachi Flynn: Love this guy. I've brought him up a ton of times before on the forum as a guy we could take in the 30s. Tankathon currently has him going 48th, I think that's far too low. He's comfortable a better prospect than Cassius Winston, imo. He's a small guard (6'1, 6'4 wingspan iirc) but he's a very steady defensive player nonetheless and isn't the kind of guy who makes all of his defensive impact by gambling. Plays a lot bigger than his height: you can actually trust him to play defense on other guards. He's not likely to be some kind of major defender in the NBA because small guards hardly ever are, but he's going to be capable.
Probably the most developed pick and roll guard in the draft. This makes sense because he's 22, so he's had more time to mature his game than guards who are 3 years younger than him, but still it's just a skill he absolutely has. Good shooter on good volume (37% this year on 6 a game, 85% FT shooter).
Grant Riller: Currently projected as a 2nd round pick by Draft Express. Not going to write much here because I've already talked at length about Riller in this thread, but I'm just going to quote Ben from the Prep2Pro pod here: ''I get the arguments against him, a 23 year old combo who played in a bad league and was a bad defender, but there is really nobody with his scoring package. Even at 23, how many of these prospects who are 18, 19, are going to be as good a scorer as Riller already is? Certainly some probably will, but Riller with his first step, just so good at getting low, powerful explosive drives, his super elite finishing, the space creation on his jumpers is ridiculous, and then a pretty solid passer as well. The scoring upside is really enticing. In a class like this that just doesn't have much of that, he should easily be a first rounder.''
Both of the guys on the pod have him in the teens on their big boards.
Xavier Tillman: ESPN has him going at 40 on their board. ''What are we doing here with Daniel Oturu as a first round prospect, I guess they have him 36, ranked above Tillman? I've done the Tillman thing to death, obviously, but he was one of if not the best player in college basketball last year. He's everything you want out of a big man. He's a brilliant DHO operator, the best short roll passer in the class, the best screener in the class. An incredible defensive player who is somewhat coverage versatile as a PnR player who is a brilliant team defender. While he doesn't have the leaping, has impeccable timing and length, and you can see how in the NBA having those things along with intelligence allows you to be a dominant defensive player. With Tillman it's so obvious, just obvious that he's going to be good for a long time.''
He's really good. Just a clearly really good player with clearly really good abilities who is going to be good. He could easily be in the playoff rotation of a team as a rookie and provide legitimate value. Extremely strong, lengthy, great finisher at the rim, fantastic screener, passer, and defender. He's probably not going to be any sort of star on offense in terms of self creation but his passing is a legitimate upside and he's such a fast and decisive decision maker and high level decision making is so vital.
Tillman is actually good at basketball, and drafting someone who isn't just because they have an inch or two of height on Tillman is an absurd thing to do.
Desmond Bane: Draft Express has him at 41. He's the best shooter in the class. If you disagree, he's inarguably top 5. Shoots off movement, off screens, on pullups. Unlike someone like Nesmith or Bey, Bane can dribble a little and is a solid passer, and those kinds of skills add up on top of shooting. He has very little burst or explosion so it's not like he's leveraging him shooting into insane slashing or anything, but he's good enough on the handle and he can make the right passes consistently. Not a great POA defender because his wingspan is short, but he's a solid team defender and knows what he's doing and doesn't make constant dumb mistakes.
He's 6'5 and shot 44% on 6.5 threes a game this year. He was 42.5% on 4.5 a game the year before. He was 46.5% on 3 a game the year before that. Just huge efficiency on good volume, with a huge variety in his shot values. Desmond Bane is at 43.3% from three on basically 600 attempts in his college career, which is a huge college sample and it just is clearly good. 80.4% FT in his college career helps. And he can shoot off the bounce, which someone like Nesmith just can't do.
Ty-Shon Alexander: Draft Express has him at 81 right now. This is not right. Alexander is a second round pick, he's not some FRP getting underrated, but 81 is ridiculous. He's 6'4, a really high level off-ball defender, and while he's not a standout offensive player he's a solid shooter (39.9% on 6.5 per game this year, 85% from the FT line, even if it's limited in terms of shot variety), a decent enough passer, stuff like that. Just deserves a bit more credit than he's getting and if he goes undrafted someone is going to pick him up as an UDFA and he'll end up surprising quite a lot of people. The absolute gold standard for roleplayers is for them to add value without demanding usage, because if you're a team with a star you don't want your star being surrounded by guys who need the ball in their hands to be productive. Alexander has the potential to add value without holding the ball. That's good.
Nate Hinton: The arguments against him are clear. But he's a fantastic wing defender, on ball and off ball. He's 6'5 but can guard up a little, and shows some signs of being a shooting prospect: he's not projecting out as being some kind of dynamite shooter but he was 39% on 4 a game this year and is a career 80% FT shooter (low volume) so there are some signs that he could have something there. Absolutely tenacious rebounder, even good offensively despite the height.
The downsides are that it's kind of hard to know what he is. He's 6'5, but he doesn't really have the complete package as a guard, but he's small for a forward. He's kind of like a really really really small 4, ish? Which is an issue. Still, there's some interesting stuff going on there that might be worth taking a swing on if you're picking in the 50s or something.
Killian Tillie: Ranked 53 on ESPN's board. Injury problems are real and it's understandable. Absolutely grant this. If your medical staff looks at him and says ''this dude will never play'' then fine, and that's info we don't have as fans.
That said, Tillie is probably the best gamble in this class. In order to think he's not worth drafting at all, you'd have to think the injury concerns are so major that he never plays an NBA game. If you think you can even get 60 games a year out of him, that's worth a late first round pick in a class like this. He's so much better than the majority of bigs in this class in terms of just actual ability. He is fantastic at basketball.
If Tillie is fully healthy without injury risk, he's a top ten pick in this draft absolutely. Projects as a legitimate starter calibre big. He can shoot, including off movement. He's a really talented passer as a big. There's a functional handle there even if it's not dynamic. Stunningly consistent and intelligent team defender. Smart decision maker.
I do just want to add that it's really funny that people are using Isaac Okoro's inability to shoot as a sign that he's never going to make it at the NBA level when Jimmy Butler currently exists and is doing what he's doing.
Jimmy Butler, age 19/20, freshman year of college: 11.4pts, 8.0 rbds, 1.4 asts per 40 minutes: 0.00% from 3 (0/4 on the year), 76% FT line, 53.4% from 2pt range, 61%TS.
Isaac Okoro, age 18/19, freshman year of college: 16.3pts, 5.6rbds, 2.6asts per 40 minutes: 29% from 3 (20/70 on the year), 67% FT line, 60.7% from 2pt range, 59% TS.
That's not to say that concerns about Okoro aren't real. His shooting really isn't particularly good, and his rebounding is only just 'okay' for a guy of his size (about 6'5, 6'6 ish, fairly long wingspan).
But he's a fantastic slasher with real handling abilities and he's developed so much as a passer this year. His vision and decision making was always good, but he lacked the actual passing capacity to pull those things off; you'd see him go to make a move but he'd fumble it because he wasn't quite able to gather, or because he couldn't pass off the bounce. Over this year, he developed those abilities. He can now pass off the bounce and his gather looks smoother than ever. Okoro also gets the the FT line like a monster: he had a FTr of .551 this year, which is just fantastic. He gets fouled a lot. That's another thing he has in common with Butler, who posted ridiculous FTr stats all three years of college (legitimately ridiculous, his career FTr over three years was .776)
So if you're wondering what a large framed wing with high level slashing capabilities and impressive wing passing, combined with outlier level strength and fantastic perimeter defense can do without being a high level 3pt shooter (Butler shot 24.4% from 3 this year)? That's what.
That might not fit on every team. And of course maybe Okoro never drives himself to his ceiling like Butler has done. But to discount the tools and abilities just because he can't shoot is kind of short sighted imo.
Thanks for this breakdown. Tillman is fascinating to me because based on what I read from him, his floor sounds like prime Utah Derrick Favors. Is that accurate?
Also with Bane, are you concern with his freaky wingspan? And lastly the more I research Sadiq Bey, the more his game turns me off. What is the odds the Pelicans draft him? Tired of seeing him mocked to us lol.
I wouldn't say his floor is prime Utah Favors, because prime Utah Favors was an absolutely fantastic player who was one of the best rim protectors in the entire NBA and that's hard impact to just guarantee, but yeah I think they're roughly the same category of player.
Not massively concerned with wingspan. Wingspan is obviously a factor in evaluation but in general I think it sometimes gets overrated. The reason wingspan is important, at least defensively, is that it implies the ability to crowd lanes, defend vertically, swarm/engulf smaller players, etc, but that's a theoretical projection. If I had to make a choice between a player with a huge wingspan but zero clue of how to use it, versus a player with wingspan issues but who knows how to play defense and where to be and how to approach closeouts and defend without fouling, then I'm definitely picking the latter player most of the time. Bane is like that: his wingspan is a bit weird, but he's a smart team defender who actually knows what he's doing, so I'm not massively concerned about it.
I'm not a huge fan of Saddiq Bey. I think his defense is not going to translate to the NBA at a high level at all (he might be decent, but it's hard to imagine more than that) and I don't think he can be trusted to really create anything on ball whatsoever. If we took him at 13, I'd be very disappointed.
Much love for this post man. I can agree with much you said about Tillman and Bane. As far as Sadiq Bey is think it's extremely likely we draft him unfortunately. He fits a upperclassmen 3 and D quota that we may have. But just to trust the Pelicans scouting department, hopefully they make the best decision.
I feel the same about Jalen Smith after further review, and Precious Achiwua
Our draft last year with Langdon's scouting people was quite successful, so I'm hoping that carries through this year.
I don't think you should be specifically drafting someone with 3&D in mind when you're in the lottery. You should be trying to draft the person you think will be the best NBA player, whether that's as a secondary creator, a utility big, a long-shot at a primary, a nuclear shooter, etc. I'd draft Bey, but it would probably be 10 or 15 spots lower than we're actually drafting. Hopefully the Pelicans view things the same way.
I think Precious has some potential defensively, actually a fair bit of potential, but offensively he's a mess doing anything other than transition scoring. Jalen Smith is someone I've written about a fair bit in this thread, and I think he shows real potential as a good big man shooter but that's about it. Not very confident in his defense at the next level at all, and he's a disappointing interior scorer and passer.
While I hope it turns out that way, I would say the book is still open. Zion was a no-brainer. Hayes, NAW and Didi are still pretty much unknowns who hopefully develop into solid players.
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